Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The UK has reached a trade agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on steel to zero, but the implementation remains uncertain, leading to decreased orders for UK steel producers [1][3] - Japan, the EU, and South Korea are also facing confusion and economic losses due to ongoing negotiations with the US, with steel and aluminum products still subject to high tariffs [1][6] - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, adding hundreds of derivative products to the list, effective from August 18 [2][9] Group 2: Economic Impact on Industries - UK steel manufacturers are at risk of closure if tariffs are not reduced, with one producer stating they could go out of business by the end of the year [3] - Japanese automotive manufacturers are experiencing significant financial losses due to tariffs, with one company losing approximately 1 billion yen (about 6.8 million USD) per hour [6] - South Korea's automotive exports to the US have decreased by nearly 17%, while steel exports have dropped by over 11% due to tariff uncertainties [6][7] Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations and Challenges - The agreements reached between the US and its trading partners are politically motivated and lack legal binding, leading to potential uncertainties in future negotiations [1][5][6] - The EU is facing pressure to implement trade agreements with the US, with significant costs incurred by the automotive industry due to delayed actions [5][6] - The US's insistence on specific conditions for steel production complicates negotiations, as UK producers struggle to meet these requirements [9][12]

Group 1 - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between the US and its trade partners, including the UK, Japan, the EU, and South Korea, are characterized by uncertainty and delays, with new tariffs being introduced even before old ones are resolved [1][2][4] - The UK steel industry is experiencing a decline in orders due to the uncertainty surrounding US import tariffs, with industry representatives expressing concerns that reaching a steel agreement is no longer a priority for the UK and US governments [1][5] - The UK and US signed the Economic Prosperity Agreement, which included tariff reductions for certain products, but key areas such as steel and pharmaceuticals remain unresolved, leading to ongoing negotiations [6][9] Group 2 - Japan and South Korea are facing similar challenges, with both countries awaiting the implementation of agreements that would reduce tariffs on automotive exports, while still contending with high tariffs on steel and aluminum products [7][8] - The automotive industry in South Korea is projected to incur additional costs of up to $5 billion this year, despite the reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15%, due to competitive pressures and weak demand [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements and the potential for further tariff increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors indicates that negotiations may continue indefinitely [11]

美日关税刚刚落地，一同让日本舆论炸锅的还有日本首相石破茂要不要辞职的传闻。一旁的韩国人也坐不住了，要立即启程赶赴华盛顿，将仔细查看美日贸 易协议。李在明才刚刚上任，可能就要迎头遭遇重击，是否我们东北地区的两个邻国，这次要大出血了呢？ 据路透社报道称，韩国工业部长表示将仔细研究美日贸易协定条款。在此之前，韩国总统李在明公开表示希望避免能在贸易协议中与其他国家相比存在劣 势。 换言之，李在明不奢求美国能做多少让步，只要对比日本等其他国家而言，能少征一点韩国的税，便万事大吉。 这种看似没骨气的要求，却最符合韩国的现实利益。 日韩对美的处境大致相同，都是以汽车为主要支柱性产业，且有大批驻韩美军的存在，在政治上无法保持独立性。可李在明似乎没意识到，日本手中还握有 一张王牌，那就是大量美债。 美日关税谈判时至今日才落地，不排除有特朗普顾忌美债市场的影响，对日本"投鼠忌器"，不敢欺压的太过分。 从这一角度来看，韩国的处境甚至还不如日本。日本自卫队至少在法律层面不允许直接参战，只能做做辅助工作，而韩国人是真有可能被美国放到前线最危 险的地方上。 李在明想改变这一现状，但毫无疑问触及到韩国国内"亲美派"与美国的根本利益，即便特 ...

Group 1 - 80% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue consolidating in the coming week, with only 10% bullish and another 10% bearish, indicating a mixed outlook on future gold prices [1] - Retail investors show stronger optimism, with 63% of 183 participants in an online poll predicting a rise in gold prices, while 18% expect a decline and 19% foresee a consolidation [1] - The closing price of gold in Shanghai increased by 0.32%, reaching 777.66 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., which may support dollar assets and put pressure on prices [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while ongoing trade tensions in some countries have increased market demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to break through [3] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to increase volatility in gold prices, but there remains potential for a price surge, with recommendations to construct a bull spread using call options during price pullbacks to reduce long position costs [3]

Group 1 - The UK steel industry is facing uncertainty regarding the promised reduction of US tariffs to zero, with many companies experiencing a decline in US orders due to the 25% import tariff [2][8] - Similar frustrations are being felt in Japan, the EU, and South Korea, as they await concessions from the US regarding high tariffs on automotive exports [2][5] - The German automotive industry is urging for swift execution of agreements to alleviate the significant financial burden caused by tariffs, which have already reached billions [4][7] Group 2 - Japan's automotive sector is suffering ongoing losses due to tariff uncertainties, with one manufacturer reportedly losing 100 million yen (approximately $680,000) per hour [6] - South Korea has reached a trade agreement with the US that includes a 15% tariff on automotive exports, but the 25% additional tariff remains in effect, leading to a nearly 17% decline in automotive exports to the US [5][7] - The UK has implemented a 10% equivalent tariff, the lowest among US trade partners, but the 25% tariff on steel remains a significant concern for the industry [8][9]

该策略之所以引人注目，是因为其时机和规模都恰到好处。根据数据，联合健康公司的股票目前的交易价格接近五年来的最低点，较其 52 周内的最高价 630.73 美元下跌了 57.4%。 这些持股表明巴里和伯克希尔看好该行业的复苏前景，尤其是因为美国"医疗保险优势"计划的费率在 2026 年的预期数值已经超出实际水平，而联合健康集 团的竞争优势地位在近期遭遇挫折后依然稳固。 联合健康公司的多头持仓标志着巴里通常"看跌"的投资策略出现了显著转变。这位"大空头"投资者似乎正在这家遭受重创但品质优良的公司身上寻找价值， 期待着在联合健康经历动荡时期后实现股价上涨。 智通财经获悉，根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露，好莱坞电影《大空头》原型、全球知名对冲基金经理迈克尔·巴里(Michael Burry)所管理的旗下Scion资 产管理公司递交了截至2025年6月30日的第二季度美股持仓报告(13F)。 据统计，"大空头"迈克尔·巴里旗下Scion在第二季度持仓总市值约为5.8亿美元，上一季度持仓总市值约为1.99亿美元，环比增长191.5%。该资产管理公司在 今年第二季度的投资组合中新增了14只个股，增持了0只个股，减持1 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated a potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains strong, a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate [1] - The recent comments from U.S. officials, including former President Trump, have provided support for gold prices, with spot gold closing up 0.31% at 778.7 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., with tariff revenues potentially offsetting inflationary pressures, thus supporting dollar assets [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September, while ongoing trade frictions continue to elevate market risk aversion [3] - The future influence of Fed officials' attitudes and U.S. inflation data on the market is expected to increase, leading to potential volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3450, indicating a need for stronger breakout drivers [4] - Despite macroeconomic news increasing gold price volatility, there remains potential for a price surge, suggesting a bullish strategy through low-cost call options during price pullbacks [4]

Group 1 - The EU anticipates an announcement from President Trump regarding lower tariffs on EU automobiles and exemptions for industrial goods like aircraft parts [1] - A joint statement is expected to outline the political commitments made by President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen last month [1] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will face a 15% tariff on most of its export goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The White House confirmed that the general tariff will serve as a ceiling for the EU, while most other trade partners will have their benchmark rates added to the existing most-favored-nation rates [1] - The administrative order from the U.S. only covers reciprocal tariffs without specifying any exemptions or how industry measures will apply to trade partners [1] - Ongoing negotiations will address exemptions for wine, spirits, and other goods that may benefit from zero tariffs, while the EU is pushing for an agreement to allow a certain amount of steel and aluminum to be exported to the U.S. at rates lower than the current 50% [1][2]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced significant gains on July 23, driven by a new trade agreement between the United States and Japan, which reduced tariffs on Japanese imports to the U.S. [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed up by 3.51%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index rose by 3.18% [1] - The Nikkei index increased by 1396.40 points, closing at 41171.32 points, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 90.19 points, closing at 2926.38 points [1] Sector Performance - All 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with transportation machinery, banking, and metal products leading the increases [1]