Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·中信建投期货：短期贵金属或因风险偏好上升而略有承压但长线支撑依然牢固 ·光大期货：短线不能排除金价大幅下跌的可能性 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。如果美 国经济增速放缓，美联储有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有 望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·德商银行：避险需求仍是金价的主要支撑 ·SIA Wealth Management：即使美联储提前降息也不会给黄金带来大幅提振 【机构分析】 ·中信建投期货表示，特朗普再度推迟关税生效日期，或从8月1日开始征收，特朗普签署"大而美"法 案，短期或给美国经济带来支撑，市场风险偏好的提升或短期给贵金属带来压力，但长期来看，美国债 务负担将进一步提升，损害美元信用，贵金属长期支撑仍然充足。总体来看，短期贵金属或因风险偏好 上升而略有承压，长期则继续受益于美元信用的削弱，贵金属长线支撑依然牢固。 ·光大期货表示，近期市场相对平淡，宏观环境并未趋紧。市场预期美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, primarily driven by U.S. tariff policies, which created both upward and downward pressures on copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Phases - **Phase 1 (Early January to Late March)**: Initial strength in copper prices was attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, leading to a peak price of 83,000 yuan, the highest in over a year [3] - **Phase 2 (Late March to Early April)**: The implementation of unexpected reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from other countries led to a sharp decline in copper prices, with the lowest point reaching 71,320 yuan, marking an eight-month low [4] - **Phase 3 (Mid-April to Late June)**: Negotiations between the U.S. and other countries created temporary optimism, but ongoing uncertainties kept copper prices in a narrow range, with a gradual recovery influenced by a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Global Trade - The U.S. tariff policies have increased trade barriers and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened uncertainty in the market, particularly after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [6] - The expectation of tariffs on copper has created a "siphoning effect," where copper flows towards the U.S. due to higher prices, with COMEX copper inventories rising significantly while LME inventories declined [10][12] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing and level of U.S. tariffs on copper continues to influence market dynamics, with traders remaining active in anticipation of policy changes [12] Group 3: Smelting and Processing Fees - The processing fees for copper have dropped to negative values, creating significant pressure on smelting operations, with the processing fee reaching -40 USD per dry ton [9] - Despite the challenges, smelting plants have maintained production through adjustments in raw material sourcing and the contribution of by-product revenues [9] - The long-term contracts for copper concentrate processing fees have been locked in at historical lows, raising concerns about the sustainability of smelting operations moving forward [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, which will continue to affect demand expectations and market sentiment [13] - The tightening supply of copper ore and the operational challenges faced by smelting plants may lead to potential production cuts, which could provide upward support for copper prices [13] - The timing and impact of U.S. tariff policies on copper will be critical to monitor, as the current window for copper flow to the U.S. remains open until definitive measures are enacted [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trade conflict between China and the United States is a long-term struggle driven by conflicting national goals, with both sides unwilling to compromise, leading to a potential decades-long competition [1][12][32] - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy initiated by the Trump administration aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit, particularly China, which faced a 34% tariff based on its trade deficit ratio [5][12] - The underlying cause of the U.S. trade deficit is linked to the unique position of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, allowing the U.S. to create dollars with minimal cost, leading to a persistent trade deficit [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the "hollowing out" of the U.S. manufacturing sector due to the dollar's dominance, with manufacturing's share of GDP dropping from 24% in the 1970s to an estimated 10% in 2024, while finance and real estate sectors have grown [8][9] - The article highlights the increasing income inequality in the U.S., where the share of wages in GDP has declined over the past 30 years, exacerbating social tensions and contributing to the rise of populist sentiments [9][11] - The U.S. has two potential strategies to address the challenges posed by globalization: abandoning dollar hegemony in favor of a global currency and implementing domestic policies for wealth redistribution, but both options face significant political and ideological hurdles [11][12] Group 3 - The article outlines the "mirror imbalance" in the U.S.-China economic relationship, where China has a trade surplus and low consumption, while the U.S. has a trade deficit and high consumption, which has historically supported mutual economic growth [14][17] - China's economic challenges are rooted in insufficient effective demand, which is linked to income distribution issues, where a significant portion of national income does not translate into consumer spending [17][19] - The article proposes three strategies for China to address effective demand issues: a fundamental shift towards consumption through income redistribution, continued investment to stabilize growth, and the risk of falling into a cycle of overcapacity and low demand if no action is taken [20][22] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the economy and market in the context of U.S.-China competition, suggesting that China has more policy tools at its disposal to address demand issues [24][26] - The expected policy direction for China is to focus on investment-driven growth, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, to stimulate the economy in the short term [27][28] - The current state of China's stock, bond, and currency markets is characterized by bottom oscillation, with expectations of government support and stabilization measures influencing market dynamics [28][30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bullish trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coils), investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds, and light - position participation is suggested [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds, and light - position participation is advised [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, the overall price is under pressure in the short term, and bulls should be cautious. Low - value call options can be considered if spot losses increase significantly [21]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [23][24]. - For fuel oil, the price is expected to gradually bottom out in the short term. The main contract should be put on hold for now, and long - position opportunities can be sought after the decline eases [26][27]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes [30][32]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][35]. - For urea, it will oscillate in the short term and is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][38]. - For PX, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [39]. - For PTA, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [40][42]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation weakens in the short term, but there is support at a low level. The space below should be treated with caution [43]. - For short - fiber, follow the cost side with light - position participation and look for opportunities to widen the processing margin [44]. - For bottle - grade chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. Participation should be cautious, and opportunities to widen the processing margin should be noted [46]. - For soda ash, there may be a short - term rebound, but excessive long - position chasing is not advisable [47]. - For glass, there is a short - term bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is expected to be limited. Short - position holders at a low level should control their positions, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [49]. - For caustic soda, the supply - demand is generally loose, and the bullish sentiment due to the meeting's spirit is expected to have limited sustainability [50][51]. - For pulp, the paper price is expected to be weak and stalemate in the near future, and changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand should be observed [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and investors should not chase high prices [54]. - For copper, the price is expected to be strong, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [55][56]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate and be strong [57]. - For nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, look for long - position opportunities in the low - support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call options in the support range after the fall [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long on the oil - meal ratio [63][64]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to wait and see [65][67]. - For sugar, the situation is neutral after short - term basis repair, and it is advisable to wait and see [68][70]. - For apples, pay attention to third - party research data on production as the expected reduction is less than previously thought [71][72]. - For live pigs, the demand support is weak in the summer off - season. Pay attention to the weight - reducing degree in the south and consider waiting and seeing [74][75]. - For eggs, consider short - position and rebound attempts as the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in June [76][78]. - For corn and starch, the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It's advisable to wait and see, and corn starch will follow the corn market [79][81]. - For logs, it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [83][84]. Summaries by Directory Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures closing higher, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan in the open market [5]. - Macroeconomic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The bond yield is relatively low, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Caution is advised due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade agreements [6]. - It's expected that there will be no trend - like market [7]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw mixed results for stock index futures. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - run, and going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures rising. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coils) - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounding. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. From a valuation perspective, the downside space is limited. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures rebounding. The iron ore supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and its price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it was supported at the previous low. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures rising significantly. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction. However, in reality, the coal mine operating rate is rising, and steel mills' demand for coke is weak. Technically, the short - term trend is uncertain. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rising. The supply of ferroalloys is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is under pressure. If spot losses increase significantly, low - value call options can be considered [21]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rising. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and US energy companies continued to cut the number of oil and gas rigs. OPEC+ may continue to increase production. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the main contract should be put on hold for now [22][23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising and the decline easing. The delivery time is still unstable. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and inventories in some regions have increased. In the short term, the price is expected to gradually bottom out. The main contract should be put on hold for now, and long - position opportunities can be sought after the decline eases [25][26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw synthetic rubber futures falling. The supply pressure has alleviated slightly, and the demand improvement is limited. The cost is expected to rebound, driving the price to stabilize and rebound. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw natural rubber futures falling. Overseas imports may decrease seasonally, and raw material output in the producing areas is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes [30][32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw PVC futures rising. The production is expected to continue to decline, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [33][35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw urea futures showing no change. The agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is mediocre. Pay attention to the export situation. It will oscillate in the short term and is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][38]. PX - The previous trading day saw PX futures falling. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly month - on - month, and the balance remains tight, but the cost support is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and participation should be cautious [39]. PTA - The previous trading day saw PTA futures falling. The supply - demand fundamentals have little contradiction, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and light - position participation is recommended [40][42]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw ethylene glycol futures falling. The supply - demand situation weakens in the short term, but the inventory has decreased significantly to a low level, providing support. The space below should be treated with caution [43]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw short - fiber futures falling. The downstream demand and cost side have both weakened. The low inventory of factories can suppress some of the decline. Follow the cost side with light - position participation and look for opportunities to widen the processing margin [44]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day saw bottle - grade chips futures falling. The raw material price is weak, but the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased, providing support. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side. Participation should be cautious, and opportunities to widen the processing margin should be noted [46]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw soda ash futures falling slightly. The supply is expected to exceed demand in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory is sufficient. The short - term rebound is mainly due to a meeting, but its sustainability is limited. Excessive long - position chasing is not advisable [47]. Glass - The previous trading day saw glass futures rising. The actual supply - demand has no obvious drive. The short - term bullish sentiment is due to a meeting, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position holders at a low level should control their positions, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [48][49]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw caustic soda futures rising slightly. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the region - based difference is obvious. The bullish sentiment due to the meeting's spirit is expected to have limited sustainability [50][51]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw pulp futures rising. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The paper price is expected to be weak and stalemate in the near future, and changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand should be observed [52]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw lithium carbonate futures rising. A meeting triggered expectations of supply - side reform, but the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mining capacity. Investors should not chase high prices [54]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper rising and then falling. The price is expected to be strong in the second half of the year due to expected stimulus policies in China, the shortage of copper concentrates, and uncertain copper tariffs. The main contract should be put on hold for now [55][56]. Tin - The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin oscillating. The tin ore supply is tight, and the consumption is good. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and be strong [57]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rising. The cost support has weakened, the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures rising. The soybean crushing volume has recovered to a high level, and inventories are increasing. The demand for edible oil and feed is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, look for long - position opportunities in the low - support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call options in the support range after the fall [59][60]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rising. The inventory in June is expected to decrease, and the export volume has increased. The domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. Consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day saw rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures adjusting. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal has decreased. The crop growth is good, but the soil moisture is in short supply. Consider the opportunity to go long on the oil - meal ratio [63][64]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures oscillating at a high level, and overseas cotton futures falling. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. The domestic cotton planting area has increased, and the seedlings are growing well. The industrial off - season is in progress, and there is no obvious new driving factor. It is advisable to wait and see [65][67]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures oscillating and overseas sugar futures rising significantly. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, but the supply may decrease due to the increase in ethanol production. The domestic inventory is low, and the import will gradually increase. The supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to wait and see [68][70]. Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures oscillating. The apple production reduction is less than expected, and some areas may have a restorative increase. Pay attention to third - party research data on production [71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw live pig futures rising. The group - farm slaughter volume has decreased at the end and beginning of the month. The demand support is weak in the summer off - season. Pay attention to the weight - reducing degree in the south and consider waiting and seeing [74][75]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw egg futures rising. The egg supply in June is expected to increase year - on - year. It is the consumption off - season, and the temperature is rising. Consider short - position and rebound attempts [76][78]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw corn and corn starch futures falling. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The import may increase in the future. It's advisable to wait and see, and corn starch will follow the corn market [79][81]. Logs - The previous trading day saw log futures rising. The number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs has increased, and the cost has changed. The inventory is basically stable. The demand is affected by the project fund availability. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [83][84].

Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]

Core Points - The eighth round of China-Germany diplomatic and security strategic dialogue was held in Berlin, emphasizing the importance of the relationship between the two countries as they enter a new decade of partnership [1][2] - Both sides acknowledged the need for enhanced strategic communication and cooperation to address global challenges such as protectionism and unilateralism, aiming to provide more certainty to the world [1][2] Group 1 - Wang Yi highlighted that 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of China-Europe diplomatic relations, indicating a critical juncture for China-Germany relations [1] - The dialogue reaffirmed the commitment to mutual respect, seeking common ground while reserving differences, and the principle of win-win cooperation as the foundation for sustained development [2] - Both parties agreed to continue close communication and coordination on various international issues, including the Ukraine crisis and the Iran nuclear issue, to contribute to peace and conflict resolution [2] Group 2 - Wang Yi expressed appreciation for Germany's positive and rational approach towards developing relations with China, urging Germany to support China's efforts for national reunification [2] - The German Foreign Minister, Baerbock, reiterated Germany's commitment to the One China policy and the importance of maintaining a reliable and predictable partnership with China [2] - The dialogue underscored the historical and cultural ties between China and Germany, emphasizing the need for constructive engagement to manage differences [2]

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | 4 | 国债： | | --- | --- | | 4 | 股指： | | 贵金属： 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷： 6 | | | 铁矿石： 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭： 7 | | | 铁合金： 7 | | | 8 | 原油： | | 燃料油： 9 | | | 合成橡胶： 9 | | | 天然橡胶： 10 | | | 10 | PVC： | | 11 | 尿素： | | 11 | 对二甲苯 PX： | | 11 | PTA： | | 乙二醇： 12 | | | 12 | 短纤： | | 13 | 瓶片： | | 13 | 纯碱： | | 14 | 玻璃： | | 14 | 烧碱： | | 15 | 纸浆： | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | | 铜： | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡： | 17 | | 镍： | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is suggested [10][11]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [13]. - For iron ore, investors can look for opportunities to go long at low positions, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken [15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [18]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term demand has reached its peak, and the supply is still high. It's advisable to be cautious for long positions. If the spot losses increase significantly, consider low - value call options [20][21]. - For crude oil, it's expected to oscillate at a low level, and investors can focus on going long opportunities for the main contract [23][24]. - For fuel oil, it's expected to gradually bottom out in the short term. After the decline eases, look for opportunities to go long. Currently, the main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to opportunities to go long after it stabilizes [29][30]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate and consolidate temporarily [31][32]. - For urea, it's expected to oscillate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34]. - For PX, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [35]. - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Participate with a light position and control risks [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, be cautious about the downside space. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - For short - fiber, follow the cost side and participate with a light position. Look for opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [39][40]. - For bottle - grade chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost side. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [41]. - For soda ash, it's expected to adjust weakly in the short term, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [42][43]. - For glass, although there may be short - term bullish sentiment, its sustainability is limited. Short - position holders at low levels should control their positions, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [44]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Previous long - position holders should control their positions [45][46]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale elimination of mine - end capacity. Pay attention to warehouse receipts [48]. - For copper, the expectation of increased stimulus policies in China in the second half of the year is expected to support copper prices, and consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [49][50]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate strongly [51]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - support intervals and call - option opportunities for soybean oil after its decline [53][54]. - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [55][56]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [57][58]. - For cotton, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [59][60]. - For sugar, it's advisable to wait and see [61][64]. - For apples, pay attention to third - party research data on production as the estimated reduction in production is less than expected [65][66]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the supply - side volume increase. Consider taking profits on long - spreads for peak - season contracts [66][67]. - For eggs, consider short - selling on rebounds [68][70]. - For corn and corn starch, it's advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch follows the corn market [71][73]. - For logs, beware of short - term corrections as the market sentiment is stimulated in the short term, but the premium on the futures is relatively sufficient [75][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.28%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [5]. - The central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1st, with a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [5]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. Supply and demand both rebounded to some extent [6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.03%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 0.08%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.01%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.36% [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 776.1 with a 1.11% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,810 with a 0.55% increase [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The latest price of Tangshan billet was 2,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2,990 - 3,090 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,170 - 3,190 yuan/ton [12][13]. - The downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices are at a low level with limited downward space [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. PB powder port spot price was 700 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was 592 yuan/ton [15]. - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price valuation is relatively high among black - series products [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures dropped significantly. The tightening of environmental inspections in major coal - producing areas previously pushed up coking coal prices, but the rebound may be near the end [17][18]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5,624 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 2.04% to 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - The supply of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high [20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded, with a slowing decline. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased to the lowest level since October 2021 [22]. - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah exceeded 10 million barrels, and the supply is sufficient [25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.09%. The supply pressure eased slightly, and demand improvement was limited [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.61%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose 1.15%. The price may continue to oscillate widely [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 2.09%. Production is expected to decline, demand shows no sign of improvement, and cost support is strengthening [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.35%. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is tepid. Pay attention to the export situation [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.47%. The supply - demand balance is tight, but cost support is insufficient [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.5%. Some production facilities are under maintenance, demand has declined, and cost support is weak [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.02%. The overall operating load decreased, inventory decreased significantly, and demand is weak [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2508 main contract rose 0.7%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost drivers are insufficient [39][40]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - grade chips 2509 main contract fell 0.4%. Raw material prices are weak, but production facility maintenance has increased [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract closed at 990 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract closed at 2,365 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. Production increased slightly, and inventory rose [45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract closed at 5,022 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The market showed a dual decline in futures and spot prices [47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly [48]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79,860 - 80,120 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, rising 0.32% to 268,200 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% to 120,450 yuan/ton. The cost support has weakened, and consumption is not optimistic [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.10% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.03% to 7,972 yuan/ton [53]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil continued to decline. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [55]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - In May 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 111,100 tons, down 38.9% month - on - month, and rapeseed meal imports were 194,600 tons, down 34.8% month - on - month [57]. Cotton - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, in May 2025, China's rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal imports decreased [59]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and overnight, ICE raw sugar fell 3% [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The estimated reduction in apple production is less than expected [65]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 15.08 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan. Group - farm slaughter volume decreased at the beginning of the month [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan, and in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan [68]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.29% to 2,383 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.44% to 2,743 yuan/ton [71]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. Overseas export willingness has decreased, and domestic inventory is decreasing [74][75].

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has led to significant lessons for the US, including the need to reassess its hegemonic position and the impossibility of decoupling the two economies [1] - The trade relationship between the US and China is interdependent, with both countries having mutual economic interests [1] - President Trump announced a new agreement where the US will impose a 55% tariff on China, while China will impose a 10% tariff on the US, maintaining exports of magnets and rare earth materials [1] Group 2 - Trump has decided to lift the ban on US ethane exports to China, primarily due to the adverse effects on US businesses and the need for China to ease its rare earth export controls [3] - The US has failed to establish a coalition against China regarding tariffs, with only the UK as a notable ally, indicating a lack of international support for US trade policies [3] - China's response to US tariffs has played a crucial role in maintaining fairness in the international trade system, despite not actively seeking alliances against the US [3] Group 3 - The current trade negotiations show that China holds the initiative in discussions, with the US seeking China's cooperation, highlighting China's growing strength in negotiations [5] - The trade friction between the US and China is largely attributed to the US projecting its domestic issues onto other countries, rather than being a result of genuine trade disputes [5] - China's strategic control over rare earth resources is emphasized, with a cautious approach to US commitments due to past instances of the US reneging on agreements [7][8]