东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴非银】证券行业：学习两会精神，行业监管改革稳步推进 （20250314） 事件：3 月 11 日，中国证监会党委召开扩大会议，深入学习习近平总书记在 全国两会期间的重要讲话精神和全国两会精神，研究部署资本市场贯彻落实 具体举措。 点评：会议指出要紧扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发展的工作主线，加快推 进新一轮资本市场改革开放，不断筑牢股市健康发展的根基。具体举措包括： 1.全力巩固市场回稳向好势头。强化上市公司增强回报投资者的意识和能力， 更大力度推动中长期资金入市指导意见及实施方案落实落地，加强战略性力 量储备和稳市机制建设，坚决守住风险底线； 2.在支持科技创新和新质生产力发展上持续加力。增强制度包容性、适应性， 支持优质未盈利科技企业发行上市，稳妥恢复科创板第五套标准适用，尽快 推出具有示范意义的典型案例，更好促进科技创新和产业创新融合发展； 3.进一步全面深化资本市场改革。以深化投融资综合改革为牵引，全面启动 实施新一轮资本市场改革，推动各项改革举措平稳落地，取得可感可及的改 革成果； 4.坚定扩大资本市场高水平制度型开放。研究制定资本市场对外开放总体规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the rise in gold prices and the implications for investment strategies amid geopolitical uncertainties and changing market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has seen collective gains, with sectors such as precious metals, automotive, and photovoltaic leading the rise [3]. - The trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [2]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $3036 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 14% [2][4]. - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to three main factors: concerns over global economic growth due to tariff policies, increased demand from central banks, and rising inflation pressures from trade protectionism [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold - Institutions have raised their price targets for gold, with UBS projecting a target of $3200 per ounce and Macquarie suggesting a potential rise to $3500 per ounce [7][8]. - There is an estimated upside of over 15% from current prices based on these projections [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the recommendation is to gradually build positions in gold, taking advantage of its safe-haven attributes and central bank purchasing trends [11]. - Short-term investors are advised to be cautious of potential technical corrections and to set stop-loss and take-profit levels [12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments to adjust investment positions accordingly [13]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - The article highlights significant upcoming events, including the NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, which may impact market conditions [16][19]. - Analysts suggest that a balanced asset allocation strategy will be crucial in navigating the current market volatility and capitalizing on emerging opportunities across various sectors [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the real estate sector, recommending specific companies for investment [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery with increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand homes [6]. - It emphasizes the importance of local government special bonds in supporting land reserves and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - The report suggests that the construction and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from improved financing mechanisms and government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [10]. Summary by Sections Macro Strategy - Economic supply is stronger than demand, with industrial growth at +5.9% and service sector growth at +5.6% for January-February [1]. - The report anticipates economic pressure may increase in the second quarter, necessitating new growth points beyond infrastructure and manufacturing investments [1]. Fixed Income - High-yield Chinese dollar city investment bonds are highlighted as attractive due to their strong yield and acceptable safety [3]. - The report notes that the current spread levels for high-yield and investment-grade bonds are at historically low levels, indicating potential for future gains [3]. Real Estate - New home sales have increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend in the market [6]. - The report recommends specific companies in real estate development, property management, and real estate brokerage for investment [6]. Public Utilities - The report tracks key data in the energy sector, noting stable electricity prices and a decrease in coal prices, which may benefit the overall energy market [7]. Construction Materials - The report suggests that low-valuation consumer segment leaders in construction materials have a high probability of success, especially in the context of improving economic conditions [8]. Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a positive outlook for the forklift industry, with sales growth driven by domestic policy support and recovery in overseas markets [25]. Non-Banking Financials - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a focus on health and pension insurance [20]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption habits and brand influence in driving growth in the consumer sector, recommending specific companies [21]. Automotive - The automotive sector is projected to see growth driven by advancements in smart technology and electric vehicles, with several companies recommended for investment [22]. Pharmaceuticals - The report identifies undervalued opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in H-shares and innovative drug companies [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish sentiment on the A-share market, particularly after the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, reaching a new high for the year. The report suggests that the market is likely to maintain a slow upward trend due to ample liquidity and ongoing policy support [3][17]. - The rotation in market style is attributed to two main factors: expectations of monetary policy easing and increased consumer stimulus policies. This has led to a recovery in the financial sector and consumer-related stocks [3][17]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors as key indicators for the sustainability of the market rally [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.24%. The consumer sector, particularly dairy and financial stocks, led the gains [8][7]. - The report notes that the market is entering a verification phase for policies and economic fundamentals, with potential challenges if policy measures are delayed or external factors worsen [3][17]. Sector Analysis - **Consumer Sector**: The report suggests that consumer stocks, especially those with high dividend yields or low valuations, are worth considering for investment. The consumer sector is expected to benefit from ongoing stimulus measures [4][10]. - **Financial Sector**: The financial sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of improved performance due to increased trading volumes and supportive monetary policies [10][12]. - **Technology Sector**: While the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive, the report advises caution in the short term due to potential volatility and the need for earnings to support high valuations [4][9]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions in financial, cyclical, and high-dividend consumer stocks while being cautious with high-valuation technology stocks during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a high-low strategy, taking advantage of price fluctuations while focusing on stocks with strong earnings visibility [18][19].

人民财讯3月18日电，中信建投指出，近期建筑材料板块多个细分产品开始涨价：大宗建材中，全国水 泥均价自2月底以来连续两周回升、电子纱前期价格提涨整体推进顺畅。 在开工逐渐复苏的背景下，各子品类的涨价有望带动建材板块新一轮的上涨行情。 消费建材中，东方雨虹官宣自3月31日起对部分工程防水产品上调价格，涨价幅度在1-5%；立邦中国 2025年已实施两次涨价，分别是1月对内墙乳胶漆价格上调1-3%，并公布自3月15日起对全线工程产品 进行价格上调，幅度在1-5%。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in the economic climate, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, lithium batteries, automotive, and agriculture [3][4] - Price increases are noted in upstream non-ferrous metals and construction materials, midstream manufacturing in lithium batteries, and downstream consumption in automotive and agriculture [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical resource products, consumer goods, and financial sectors, while also considering growth assets that are experiencing a turnaround [3][4] Industry Overview Upstream Sector - The prices of iron ore and rebar have decreased week-on-week, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased [9] - COMEX gold and silver futures prices have risen week-on-week, along with copper prices and rare earth metal prices [11][12] Midstream Manufacturing - In the lithium battery sector, the average price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, while the price of ternary batteries has increased week-on-week [13] - In the photovoltaic sector, the average price of polysilicon remains unchanged, while the price of PERC solar cells has decreased [13] Downstream Consumption - In February, automotive sales reached 2.129 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, with significant growth in new energy vehicle sales [18] - The production of power batteries and energy storage batteries has also seen a substantial year-on-year increase of 128.2% [18] TMT Sector - The semiconductor sector shows an increase in the average spot prices of DRAM and NAND, with significant revenue growth reported by IC manufacturing and design companies [25] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a decline in real estate development investment and housing starts, while the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities has increased significantly year-on-year [29][30]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is experiencing an upward trend, with the overall A-share market rising by 1.49%. The leading sectors include consumption and financial real estate, while technology is experiencing a downturn [2][11]. - The report highlights that the stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 1.3%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decline in valuation differentiation [3][19]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has adjusted, with a decrease in industry rotation intensity, and the five-dimensional market sentiment index has dropped by 5.8% to 47.9 [3][21]. Group 2 - The report discusses the introduction of a childcare subsidy in Hohhot, which is expected to boost birth rates and consumer spending in the maternal and infant product sectors [4][40]. - Manus has announced a strategic partnership with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI Agent technologies [4][41]. - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to showcase new products and technologies, which may positively impact NVIDIA's supply chain [4][42]. Group 3 - The report suggests a focus on cyclical sectors, emerging consumption, and low-positioned technology as the market enters a phase of style rebalancing [5][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in new retail, e-commerce, and IP industries, to drive incremental consumer demand [5][45]. - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions, debt reduction, and sustained demand growth as key areas of focus for medium to long-term investment strategies [5][46].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the market, particularly focusing on cyclical and consumer sectors [4][10][17]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that large-cap blue-chip stocks are beginning to rebound, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors as key areas for investment [4][10]. - It highlights the importance of upcoming government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which are expected to drive market performance [11][17]. - The report suggests that the market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to one driven by economic fundamentals, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [9][17]. Market Overview - The A-share market shows a total market capitalization of 651,122 million yuan for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a PE ratio of 12.23 and a PB ratio of 1.30 [3]. - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,419.56, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.81% [2]. Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the average interest rate for new corporate loans in February was approximately 3.3%, which is 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [42]. - It also highlights that the total social financing scale increased by 22,375 million yuan in February, showing a year-on-year increase of 7,416 million yuan [14]. Industry Dynamics - The railway sector experienced a record high in passenger flow, with 7.38 million passengers transported in the first two months of 2025, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase [41]. - The report discusses the implementation of a new childcare subsidy policy in Hohhot, which provides financial incentives for families, potentially boosting consumer spending [44]. Company Tracking - The report tracks the performance of Oriental Fortune, which reported a 17.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by active trading [51]. - It also notes that Jinbo Biological has expanded its applications of recombinant collagen in various fields, including skincare and medical aesthetics, enhancing its market competitiveness [49][50].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a recovery with a weekly increase of 1.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 2.22% [25] - The liquor segment is expected to see valuation recovery as major companies focus on channel optimization and marketing strategies ahead of the upcoming political meetings [2][13] - The beer and beverage sectors are anticipated to benefit from improved consumer demand in 2025, driven by promotional policies and a recovery in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a weekly increase of 1.77%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%. Specific segments included: - Liquor: +1.64% - Dairy: +3.00% - Meat products: +3.52% - Pre-processed foods: +2.37% - Other alcoholic beverages: +0.59% - Beer: +2.84% - Soft drinks: +2.42% - Snacks: +4.30% [25] White Liquor Insights - The white liquor segment increased by 1.64%, with companies like Jiuziyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu showing significant gains. The current valuation is considered reasonable and low, with a PE-TTM of 19.50X [2][13] - Major liquor companies are focusing on channel management and marketing to rebuild confidence in the market, especially as the political meetings approach [2][13] Beer and Beverage Insights - The beer segment increased by 2.84%, with Budweiser Asia announcing a 7% increase in dividends and a management change. The Chinese market for Budweiser is projected to decline by 11.8% in 2024, but strategies are being implemented to enhance market share [3][15] - The beverage sector, including brands like China Red Bull, reported a slight revenue increase of 1.3% in 2024, reaching 21.09 billion yuan [3][17] Consumer Goods Insights - The snack segment led the market with a notable increase, while dairy products also performed well with a 3.00% rise. The report emphasizes three investment themes: "restaurant supply," "overseas expansion," and "raw milk turning point" [3][16] - The overall consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from lower inventory levels and seasonal demand as the market recovers [5][24] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading liquor brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yili and Mengniu in the dairy sector [5][24] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, particularly in the consumer goods sector, which is expected to show strong elasticity in 2025 [5][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - Increased focus on cyclical infrastructure and international engineering sectors, with significant improvement in funding sources such as special bonds. The physical volume of infrastructure is expected to accelerate, particularly after the Two Sessions, which may catalyze market performance in these sectors [1][14] - The construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with a construction PMI of 52.7%, indicating expansion. The physical workload in infrastructure is improving, supported by favorable weather and project commencement post-Spring Festival [14][20] - The report suggests a focus on three main investment themes: 1) Infrastructure + debt reduction + value enhancement; 2) Potential high elasticity in cyclical engineering; 3) Thematic investment opportunities in low-altitude economy, Belt and Road Initiative, and construction transformation [20][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Market Conditions - As of February 27, 2025, the funding availability rate for 13,532 construction sites is 49.1%, showing a year-on-year increase. The construction activity index has risen, indicating a recovery in the construction sector [2][13] - The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 589.11 billion yuan issued, a year-on-year increase of over 180 billion yuan. Infrastructure remains the primary focus, accounting for over 50% of the funding allocation [2][14] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.25% during the week of February 24-28, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.89%. Notable stock performances included HanJia Design (+32.74%) and Chengbang Co. (+22.71%) [3][17] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment driven by real demand in water conservancy, railways, and urban infrastructure, with expected growth rates of 7.0% and 2.0% for broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure, respectively [20][24] - Recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from debt reduction policies and those with high exposure to cyclical engineering opportunities, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and China Communications Construction [20][24]