【11月18日印度主要股指开盘下跌，投资者因美国关键数据未发布持谨慎态度】11月18日周二，印度主 要股指在连续六个上涨后开盘下跌。因关键美国数据未发布，这些数据可为判断美联储下月是否降息提 供线索，投资者态度谨慎。 印度国家证券交易所Nifty50指数下跌0.25%，报25,951.55点；孟买证券交易 所敏感指数下跌0.23%，报84,758.64点。所有16个主要行业板块均下跌，小盘股指数和中盘股指数分别 下跌0.5%和0.3%。 此前六个，印度主要股指累计涨约2%，支撑因素有财报季无重大不及预期情况、国 内资金流入强劲，以及美国政府停摆结束。目前该指数较2024年9月历史高点仍低约1.3%。 隔夜华尔街 股市收跌，且在包括9月非农就业数据在内的美国关键数据发布前，市场对12月美联储降息预期降温， 亚洲市场下跌1.6%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 业数据在内的美国关键数据发布前,市场对12月美 联储降息预期降温，亚洲市场下跌1.6%。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 ...

Core Insights - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, stand at 1,041.43 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - Gold prices have continued to decline, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The market is experiencing a shift in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions and the end of government shutdowns [5] Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 17, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were reported at 1,041.43 tons, down from previous levels [5] - The decline in holdings correlates with a drop in gold prices, which fell to around $4,000 per ounce before recovering slightly to close at $4,045.50 [5] Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been under pressure due to a strong US dollar and diminishing expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the probability dropping from 94% to 44% [5] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is becoming more hawkish, which may continue to impact gold prices negatively in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently showing a range-bound pattern, with key support around $4,043 and resistance at $4,100 [7] - If gold prices break below the $4,040-$4,050 range, they may revisit the previous range of $3,900-$4,050 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are currently dominant, while the MACD shows signs of losing bearish momentum [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is primarily driven by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][5]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector, especially AI stocks like Nvidia, has been a major driver of market gains, with Nvidia's stock price increasing nearly tenfold since November 2022 and becoming the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion [3]. - There are growing concerns that AI valuations may be inflated, leading to profit-taking ahead of Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report [3]. - Despite the market's worries about AI valuation bubbles, significant investments are still being made in valuable companies, as evidenced by Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchase of Alphabet shares, which rose by 3.1% on that day [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Initially, there was a strong expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with probabilities exceeding 90% a month ago; however, recent comments from Fed officials have reduced this expectation to around 40% [3]. - The upcoming release of the September non-farm payroll data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting are critical events that will influence future interest rate decisions and market sentiment [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to remain calm and not react impulsively to short-term market fluctuations, as a 550-point drop in a single day is part of normal market behavior after significant gains [5]. - Investors should focus on Nvidia's earnings report and the upcoming economic data to gauge the sustainability of AI demand and the direction of interest rate policies [5]. - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy, encouraging investors to seek out companies with reasonable valuations and core competitive advantages rather than concentrating on a few popular stocks [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices remain weak, hovering around $4030, influenced by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - The market is focused on the delayed September non-farm payroll report, which could impact the Federal Reserve's policy path for December and Q1 2025 [2][4] - The probability of maintaining interest rates has risen to 56%, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding the Fed's actions [2] Group 2 - The dollar index is stabilizing between 99.40 and 99.50, indicating a re-evaluation of the Fed's December decisions [2] - Key technical levels for gold include resistance at $4050 and support between $4028 and $4032, with a critical test at the $4000 mark if downward pressure continues [2][4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving, providing structural support for the dollar [2]

【黄金行情走势简析】 来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周一（11月17日）黄金一度暴跌近2%，最低触及4006.80美元，收盘勉强守在4045美元附近。罪魁祸首只有一个：美联储就12月降息预期进一步 降温，美元指数强势反弹0.25%，报99.54。美元一涨，以美元计价的黄金对全球其他货币持有者立刻变得更贵，买盘自然大幅缩水。 本交易日经济数据相对较少，投资者需要继续关注美联储官员的讲话和市场对美联储降息预期的变化，留意市场对美国经济数据的预期变化。 【11.18黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨4062-4065美元附近空，止损4070美元，止盈看4040-4030美元 2，若意外涨至4070美元，反弹4088-4091美元附近空，止损4096美元，止盈看4040美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 1，昨日美元指数大幅上涨，收大阳线，相对利空黄金。黄金早间开盘上涨4108美元后转空下跌，跌至4050美元附近触底反弹，晚间黄金上涨 4080.8美元后大幅下跌，尾盘黄金跌至4007美元探底回升，收在4045美元，日线连续3个交易日收阴。5日均线向下，KDJ指标超买后，再次死 叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标 ...

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整回落，美联储官员内部分歧加剧，12降息概率预期已低于5成。"新美联储通讯 社"表示，不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票，其中明确支持降息的为特朗普任命的三 位理事，反对降息的为四位地方联储官员，而作为美联储副主席的杰斐逊，通常会支持主席鲍威尔的立场。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4045.1美元/盎司，-1.2%；美白银2512合约收报于50.05美元/盎 司，-1.25%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收929.46元/克，-3.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收11933元/千 克，-4.08%。 南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：12月降息预期分歧大 贵金属延续调整回 落 【降息预期与基金持仓】 12月降息预期摇摆不定。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率57.1%，降 息25个基点的概率为42.9%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率35.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.2%， 累计降息50个基点的概率1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but repeated macro - expectations and average demand limit the upside potential of prices. Base metals are expected to experience a pull - back after a rally and then enter a period of sideways consolidation. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are favored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Copper**: With the reopening of the US government, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The supply constraints of copper remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. Considering the warming of macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [7][8]. - **Alumina**: The inventory accumulation rate remains relatively fast, and alumina prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement. The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation has entered a low - level range, so the price is expected to remain volatile [9][13]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices have corrected. In the short term, positive macro factors combined with a stable fundamental situation are expected to keep aluminum prices in a sideways - up trend. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and demand maintains resilience, so the price center of aluminum is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at high levels. In the short and medium terms, strong cost support combined with stable supply - demand or potential supply disruptions due to policies are expected to keep the price in a sideways - up trend [16][18]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. In the short term, zinc prices may show high - level oscillations. In the medium to long term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, so zinc prices may still have room to decline [19]. - **Lead**: Due to delivery, social inventory has increased, and lead prices have declined in the short term. Considering factors such as supply disturbances, demand at the end of the peak season, and cost support, lead prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [20][22]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand situation is loose, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. The market sentiment still dominates the price, and the fundamental situation of the industry is weakening at the margin. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy and continue to monitor changes in LME nickel inventory and RKAB quotas [22][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. During the seasonal off - season, the fundamental situation exerts a certain downward pressure on prices, while cost support provides some upward impetus. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost fluctuations [24][25]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin inventory has started to accumulate, and tin prices are oscillating and adjusting. Supply disruptions continue, and demand is expected to grow. The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, which will push up the price center of tin. Tin prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [25][26]. 3.2 Market Monitoring No specific content for analysis and summary is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 17, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of CITIC Futures were 2254.19 (down 0.24%), 2555.84 (down 0.42%), and 2228.52 (up 0.56%) respectively. The non - ferrous metals index was 2477.82, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 1.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.34% [150][152].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.20%报 4045.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.25%报 50.05 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.04%报 931.24 元/克，沪银跌 0.17%报 11983 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 17 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 2.57 吨，当前持仓量为 1041.43 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日持平，当前持仓量为 15218.42 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a downward trend on November 17, with prices fluctuating and ultimately closing lower, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Economic data releases are limited, with a focus on speeches from Federal Reserve officials and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from over 60% to 39%-41%, contributing to a rebound in the US dollar index by 0.25% to 99.54, which has pressured gold buying [4]. - Delayed economic data releases this week, particularly the September non-farm payroll report, are expected to increase market uncertainty [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weak downward trend, forming a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [3]. - The current daily moving average system is disorganized, with no clear bullish or bearish arrangement, leading to ineffective support and resistance levels [3]. - On the four-hour chart, gold has been in a downward trend, breaking below the key support level of 4032, with the price reaching a low of approximately 4007 [6]. - The decline from the high of 4245 has formed a complete five-wave structure, with the current price action likely in the first wave of a C-wave decline [6]. - Key support levels to monitor include 4007, 3980, and 3963, with 3980 corresponding to the weekly MA10 and 3963 being a significant Fibonacci retracement level [6]. Market Events - Upcoming economic data releases include the Australian Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, US import price index, industrial production, and NAHB housing market index [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year, with a recent low of $93,778.6, indicating a significant market correction driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, leading to a synchronized pressure on global risk assets [2]. - The liquidity in the market has decreased, exacerbating the downward trend, as many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen capital outflows, and long-term holders are cashing out profits [2][5]. - The psychological barrier of $100,000 has led to increased selling pressure, with institutional funds withdrawing and a lack of new liquidity entering the market [2][5]. Historical Context - Bitcoin has experienced multiple corrections since first surpassing $100,000, with significant drops occurring in early 2025, influenced by geopolitical concerns and security incidents [3]. - The current downturn is seen as a result of compounded factors, including macroeconomic risks, market structure issues, and investor psychology, similar to past market corrections [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains, supported by increasing institutional participation and a healthier market structure [7]. - Analysts suggest that once a substantial interest rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin could see renewed upward momentum as funds are reallocated across asset classes [7]. - The current liquidity constraints are viewed as a temporary effect from recent market shocks, with the potential for Bitcoin to find a new equilibrium and open up upward price movement in the future [7].