Core Insights - Spot gold prices reached $3,380 per ounce on August 7, with a daily increase of 0.33% [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a 0.1% increase, with a real-time transaction volume exceeding 2.7 million [2] - The ETF's latest scale is 1.47 billion yuan, with a total of 18.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.4 million shares and a change rate of 153.19% [2] - The ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to industry averages, supporting T+0 trading [2] - Current focus in the precious metals market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with several officials open to a shift towards easing monetary policy, providing strong support for gold prices [2] - The precious metals market may experience high-level fluctuations due to weakening tariff disturbances, with core issues revolving around U.S. economic data and policy paths [3] - Rising inflation expectations due to global tariffs may support precious metals if CPI data confirms accelerated cost transmission [3] - Long-term, the value of precious metals remains intact due to U.S. debt risks and the de-dollarization process, providing solid support for precious metals [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal support its price in the short - term, with prices expected to fluctuate [1]. - Gold is in a high - level oscillation, with a low probability of exceeding the previous high and a slightly bearish mid - term outlook [1]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [3]. - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon is expected to be filled, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. - Rapeseed meal prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia has a bearish fundamental outlook, and investors are advised to wait and see [5]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soda ash prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [7]. - Silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term, and observation is advised [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 36.2%, a 1.19% week - on - week increase; the daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase; and the clean coal inventory is 2.881 million tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [1]. - After the fifth round of coke price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are further repaired, and the demand for coking coal remains [1]. Gold - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [1]. - The expectation of a September interest rate cut increases, the US dollar falls, and gold oscillates at a high level but lacks upward momentum [1]. Rebar - On August 6, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly, with the price of Tangshan Qian'an billets rising by 10 yuan to 3,090 yuan/ton, and 4 steel mills raising the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in coking coal futures stimulates the black futures and drives the steel price to stop falling and rebound [3]. Ferrosilicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 33.76%, a 0.43% week - on - week increase; the daily output is 14,925 tons, a 2.12% (310 - ton) increase [3]. - Steel output is high, but the ferrosilicon supply - demand gap is expected to be filled due to increased production [3]. Pig - On August 6, the national average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.7% to 20.67 yuan/kg, and the egg price decreased by 0.8% to 7.54 yuan/kg [4]. - The pig market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal - On August 6, the total transaction volume of rapeseed meal in major domestic oil mills was 2,000 tons, with different average prices in different regions [4]. - Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is declining, imports are low, and prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month, with a 19.32% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.39% increase in oil extraction rate [5]. - In July 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [5]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 78.22%, a 0.56% increase; the downstream average operating rate is 48.4%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease [6]. - Polypropylene supply is abundant, and commercial inventory is expected to remain high in the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,347 yuan/ton, showing a weakening trend; the weekly output is 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease; the total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly adjusted, with high - price resistance and tepid demand [7]. Silver - Fed official Daly signaled a possible interest rate cut, increasing the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - The US dollar index falls, and silver shows a slightly bullish oscillating trend [7]. Methanol - The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 925,500 tons, a 117,100 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a 30,800 - ton decrease; the order backlog is 240,800 tons, a 10,100 - ton increase [8]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - On August 7, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined at the beginning of the session [9]. - Bond markets have upward momentum in the short - term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was weak due to China's July economic data falling short of expectations, the US announcing full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data being disappointing. However, the market sentiment improved with optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries. Currently, the spot demand for aluminum is insufficient, and the subsequent trend of Shanghai aluminum may be volatile and weak. The speculation in the aluminum market has subsided, and this round of speculation may end [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Background and Sentiment - China's July economic data was below expectations, the US announced full tariff rates, and the US non - farm payroll data was poor with previous two - month data significantly revised down. This led to an increased risk of US economic recession and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar tumbled and the RMB soared at night, causing the market to weaken. Optimistic data from China's automobile and machinery industries improved market sentiment during the day [1]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,525, and the spot price was 20,480, with a spot discount of - 45 points. The spot turned to a discount of - 40 yuan this week, and spot trading was poor. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased this week, while the social inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and spot consumption was weak. The LME spot inventory increased this week, and the LME spot turned to a discount of - 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices rose significantly to 8.06, indicating that the external market performed weaker than the domestic market [1]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil and LME aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai aluminum opened lower and closed higher, rising slightly and closing at 20,525. The technical form improved slightly. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Data Monitoring - From July 29 to August 4, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated, the spot premium/discount changed from 0 to - 40, the LME situation also changed, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract increased from 7.83 to 8.06 [3].

Group 1 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September exceeds 90%, with a 93.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1%, driven by optimism surrounding interest rate cuts [1][3] - Apple increased its investment commitment in the U.S. to $600 billion, contributing to its stock price rising over 5% [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose nearly 1%, with individual stocks like Tianjing Biotechnology and Quantum Song seeing gains of nearly 11% and over 9%, respectively [4] - Gold prices opened slightly higher but experienced fluctuations throughout the day [5] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, while stating that no fees would be charged for manufacturing in the U.S. [6][7] - Trump indicated intentions to impose additional secondary sanctions on Russia, with a deadline for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine set for August 8 [7]

昨夜，欧美股市走高，特朗普针对多个问题发声。 9月降息概率超90% 周三（8月6日），美股集体收涨，市场乐观情绪或源于降息预期升温。 其中，纳指涨超1%，大型科技股普涨，苹果涨逾5%，公司将其在美国的投入承诺增至6000亿美元；亚 马逊涨约4%，特斯拉涨逾3%。 此前，美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，这位屡被美国总统要求降息却始终未 执行的央行行长是特朗普的眼中钉。 据CME"美联储观察"消息，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.4%，降息25个基点的概率为93.6%。美 联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 64%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约100%的关 税。 特朗普称，如果在美国制造，将不收取任何费用。 另外，特朗普称，将对俄罗斯实施更多二级制裁。 特朗普7月29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计算。如果 俄方没有就此取得进展，将面临美国新的制裁。特朗普当前对俄罗斯设置的完成俄乌和谈最后期限为8 月8日。 此前，特朗普已签署行 ...

Market Performance - Major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 81.38 points (0.19%) to 44193.12, the Nasdaq up 252.87 points (1.21%) to 21169.42, and the S&P 500 up 45.87 points (0.73%) to 6345.06 [1] - In Europe, the DAX30 increased by 78.54 points (0.33%) to 23835.82, while the CAC40 fell by 10.97 points (0.14%) to 7621.04 [1] Corporate News - Apple announced plans to invest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing and will hire 20,000 people as part of its "American Manufacturing Plan" [9] - McDonald's shares rose over 3% due to better-than-expected earnings, while Shopify surged over 22% [1] - Novartis is considering acquiring rare disease biotech company AveXis to address patent cliff issues, with AveXis valued at $4.3 billion [9] Regulatory Developments - Amazon's subsidiary Zoox received approval from U.S. regulators to test driverless cars without traditional controls, marking a significant step in autonomous vehicle development [10] - Trump announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but will exempt companies like Apple that move production back to the U.S. [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.61% to 98.177, with the euro and pound both appreciating against the dollar [2] - Oil prices declined, with light crude futures down $0.81 to $64.35 per barrel, a drop of 1.24% [2]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 81.38 points (0.19%) to 44193.12, the Nasdaq up 252.87 points (1.21%) to 21169.42, and the S&P 500 up 45.87 points (0.73%) to 6345.06 [1] - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 78.54 points (0.33%) to 23835.82, while France's CAC40 fell 10.97 points (0.14%) to 7621.04 [1] Corporate News - Apple announced plans to invest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing and will hire 20,000 people as part of its "American Manufacturing Plan" [9] - McDonald's shares rose over 3% due to better-than-expected earnings, while Shopify surged over 22% [1] - Novartis is considering acquiring rare disease biotech company Avita, which has a market value of $4.3 billion, to address patent cliff issues [9] - Amazon's subsidiary Zoox received regulatory approval to test driverless cars without traditional controls, marking a significant step in autonomous vehicle development [10] Economic Policies - Trump proposed a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but will exempt companies like Apple that move production back to the U.S. [5] - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the labor market is slowing and that tariffs will only have a short-term impact on inflation, suggesting a potential interest rate cut soon [6][7]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies continue their earlier upward trend, while stock market declines have narrowed due to comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari, which have put pressure on the dollar and boosted risk appetite [1] - The MSCI index, which measures emerging market currencies, rose by 0.2%, with the Colombian peso and South African rand leading the gains [1] - Similar stock market indices experienced slight declines, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [1]

一、市场现况：金价高位震荡，政策与地缘双驱动 2025 年 8 月，黄金市场呈现 "政策底" 与 "避险底" 的双重特征。国际金价在 3430 美元 / 盎司附近震荡，国内实物黄金价格突破 1015 元 / 克，周大福、周生 生等品牌金店金价较月初累计上涨 6.7%。这一涨势源于多重因素：美联储 9 月降息概率升至 90%，市场预期年内可能出现两次 25 个基点的降息；中东局势 因以色列与伊朗代理人战争持续紧张，红海航运风险推升避险溢价；全球央行购金趋势延续，中国央行连续 8 个月增持黄金，6 月末储备规模达 7390 万盎 司。 从交易数据看，2025 年一季度国内金条及金币消费量同比激增 29.81%，上海期货交易所黄金期货成交额同比增长 143.69%，显示专业投资者正通过杠杆工 具捕捉行情。这种结构性变化反映出黄金作为避险资产的核心地位，尤其在美联储政策转向与地缘冲突加剧的背景下，金价中长期上行趋势未改。 二、投资注意事项：从入门到精通的关键法则 1. 选择正规平台，筑牢资金安全防线 随着 8 月 1 日《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》实施，单笔 10 万元以上现金交易需严格身份核验 ...

Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]