新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 铝合金与铝价价差走扩 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20620元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨240元/吨至210元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20490元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨200元/吨至80元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20440元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨245元/吨至30 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-17日沪铝主力合约开于20410元/吨，收于20460元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨70元/ 吨，涨幅0.34%，最高价达20475元/吨，最低价达到20355元/吨。全天交易日成交101698手，较上一交易日减 少54378手，全天交易日持仓198944手，较上一交易日减少5356手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME铝库存349100 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得319 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱利好新兴市场风险偏好。国内经济呈现"稳中有 进"态势，消费对 GDP 增长的贡献率显著提升，科技制造投资加速，出口结构向中高端市场 倾斜，货币政策保持灵活适度，流动性充裕为市场提供支撑。 参考观点：关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛政策信号，中东局势或引发波动率放大。IH 与 IF 建 议采取中性策略，持有卖出虚值期权或轻仓多头。IC 与 IM 可布局跨期价差套利，或逢低配 置远期合约对冲波动。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。目前，市场开始观望，波 动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，一定程度上在基 本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗对以色列袭击的 反击，中东局势若持续升级，则原油价格易涨难跌。多家机构预测称，若地区冲突进一步扩 大，不排除油价重新回到高油价区间。需密切关注该影响因素。同时，若该驱动逐渐淡化， 或冲突降级，原油的风险溢价也将快速回落。近期波动率将大幅增加。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注 78 美元/桶附近压力。 黄金 宏观与地缘：地缘冲突 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/16 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/13 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/12 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南 ...

Core Points - A batch of confiscated LABUBU toys and other items was auctioned on JD's asset trading platform, selling for 191,608 yuan after 73 rounds of bidding [1] - The starting price for the auction was set at 114,608 yuan, indicating a significant increase in value during the bidding process [1] - The auction included 39 LABUBU toys, 3 watches, 4 instant cameras, and 1 bag, all sold as a package [1] Group 1 - The LABUBU toys included 9 blue "Merlion" figures valued at approximately 1,000 yuan each and a limited edition from Thailand valued at around 600 yuan each [3] - The auction saw a dramatic increase in bids during the last 10 minutes, with prices rising from just over 120,000 yuan to the final sale price of 191,608 yuan, exceeding the starting price by nearly 80,000 yuan [4] - Two bidders engaged in intense competition, making a total of 29 bids, which contributed to the final auction price [4] Group 2 - Customs authorities recently seized 144 LABUBU toys from two travelers who attempted to bring them into the country without declaring them, highlighting ongoing issues with cross-border toy trading [4] - The seized toys were part of a popular blind box series, which has a price disparity between overseas and domestic markets, creating an arbitrage opportunity [4] - Customs regulations state that personal items brought into China must not exceed a total value of 8,000 yuan to be exempt from duties, and exceeding this limit without declaration can lead to penalties [4]

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -10 -180 理论价差 223 281 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 210 280 理论价差 211 323 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/17 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.63 3.87 4.58 0.94 1.19 0.79 伦（三连） 3.65 3.86 4.83 0.95 1.25 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the domestic automotive consumption market are driven by the need for improved efficiency in subsidy fund allocation, with various regions suspending vehicle replacement subsidy applications due to rapid fund depletion [1][2][5]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Several cities, including Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and Xinjiang, have announced the suspension of vehicle replacement subsidy applications due to the rapid consumption of the initial subsidy funds [2][3]. - The suspension of subsidies is seen as a necessary measure to address structural contradictions and rampant arbitrage activities that have emerged following the implementation of the subsidy policies [5][6]. - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to stimulate automotive consumption, but the mismatch between fund distribution and local demand has led to issues [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The suspension of subsidies has triggered a rush among consumers to complete their vehicle replacement applications, leading to a significant increase in daily application volumes prior to the system shutdown [3][4]. - Automotive analysts suggest that the recent policy changes represent a stress test for consumption stimulation models, indicating a shift from universal to more targeted subsidies [4][6]. - The automotive market is expected to experience sustained growth as the second batch of funds is allocated and policies are refined [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The emergence of organized arbitrage activities around subsidies has led to significant financial losses for the government and disrupted market order [5]. - Recommendations for improvement include establishing a dynamic fund adjustment mechanism and implementing a full-chain traceability system using blockchain technology to prevent fraud [6]. - The industry is exploring innovative promotional models to adapt to the current policy "gap," while also facing the challenge of identifying genuine consumer demand as subsidies are expected to decline in the future [6].

先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-17 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ad2511 | 32.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 64 | 0.0% | 64 | | pg2507 | 3.0% | 2 | 1.5% | 10 | 2.0% | 8 | | sc2508 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.3% | 1 | 4.7% | 1 | | eb2507 | 2.5% | 4 | 1.6% | 8 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taihe Intelligent plans to acquire 100% equity of Anhui Sunshine Yuchu New Energy Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder Sunshine New Energy for no more than 50 million yuan, despite the target company facing high debt and significant losses [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a company that has a debt ratio exceeding 80% and a net loss of over 22 million yuan in the first quarter of this year [1]. - Taihe Intelligent reported a net profit of only 2.09 million yuan in the same period, indicating potential financial challenges due to the acquisition [1][3]. - The target company, Sunshine Yuchu, primarily engages in energy storage projects for commercial users, providing necessary services to save energy costs [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - In 2024, Sunshine Yuchu is expected to generate revenue of 19.78 million yuan, accounting for 3.51% of Taihe Intelligent's total revenue, while in the first quarter of 2025, it is projected to contribute 15% [3]. - Sunshine Yuchu is anticipated to incur a net loss of 6.13 million yuan in 2024 and 22.66 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, which may negatively impact Taihe Intelligent's financial performance [3]. Group 3: Business Risks and Competition - The company acknowledges significant cross-industry operational risks due to its lack of experience in energy storage, raising concerns about the integration of the new business [1][6]. - There are questions regarding potential competition between Taihe Intelligent and Sunshine New Energy, as both are involved in the energy sector, and the independence of Sunshine Yuchu's operations post-acquisition is uncertain [5][6]. - Sunshine New Energy has a broad investment portfolio in the renewable energy sector, which may complicate the competitive landscape following the acquisition [5][6].

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-17 美西运价下行斜率较高，关注欧线7月份涨价实际落地情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1700/2840；HPL 6月下半月船期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期 报价2635/4435。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937,7月上半月船期报价I 3474/4043；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2635/4645；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3100. 部分船司宣布6月份下半月涨价函，MSC 6月份下半月涨价函价格2340/3900（前期6月上半月涨价函价格 1920/3200）。目前HPL、CMA以及ONE均报出7月份船期报价。 地缘端：中东和 ...