由于市场风险偏好整体改善和美国制造业景气指数带来支撑，1日美元兑一揽子货币全面走高，美元指 数在隔夜市场上涨，当日上午涨幅显著扩大，随后窄幅盘整，尾盘时美元指数显著上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.78%，在汇市尾市收于100.246。 美国供应管理学会当日发布的数据显示，美国4月份制造业景气指数为48.7，高于市场预期的47.9，但低 于3月份的49。 Jayati Bharadwaj说，此前已经指出美元可能在近期反弹，这可能为做空美元提供更好的入场条件。特朗 普政府可能已经意识到他们在关税政策上用力过猛，并正在试图刻画进行潜在谈判的图景。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1286美元，低于前一交易日的1.1348美元；1英镑兑换1.3278美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3339美元。 1美元兑换145.68日元，高于前一交易日的142.77日元；1美元兑换0.8316瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8229瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3848加元，高于前一交易日的1.3785加元；1美元兑换9.7566瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.6559瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华财经） 这一数据公布后， ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 4 月 29 日 关税预期进一步放缓，金价明显回调 黄金周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） 核心观点 关税预期进一步放缓，避险情绪回落，叠加多头获利了结， 上周金价有所回调。上周五（4 月 25 日），沪金主力期货价格 较前周五下跌 0.48%至 787.20 元/克，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 0.29%至 784.93 元/克；上周五，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前 周四（4 月 17 日）下跌 0.33%至 3330.20 美元/盎司；伦敦金 现货价格较前周四下跌 0.24%至 3318.76 美元/盎司。具体来 看，随着金价上行至历史高位区间，市场恐高情绪引发部分资 金获利了结，进而导致金价下跌。同时，美国财长贝森特暗示 中美贸易紧张局势有望很快缓解，加之特朗普表示无意解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔，带动市场风险偏好回升，美元指数有所反弹， 对金价造成一定压制。整体上看，受市场关税预期进一步缓和、 避险情绪回落以及资金获利了结影响，上周金价明显回调。 本周（4 月 28 日当周）黄金价格或将震荡调整。近期金价冲 上历史高 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently at $3324.49 per ounce, with a decline of 0.58% from an opening price of $3341.30 per ounce [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path, with expectations of a potential resumption of interest rate cuts in June, possibly implementing three cuts throughout the year [2] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting gold prices, with a temporary ceasefire announced by Russia, although Ukraine has not responded, providing potential support for gold [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is supported above $3268.00 and faces resistance below $3353.00, suggesting a possible upward trend if it stabilizes above $3293.00 [3] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3378.00-$3379.00, with significant support at $3323.00-$3324.00 and important support at $3293.00-$3294.00 [3]

A股近期有所反弹 4月28日，A股三大指数小幅下跌，沪指全天维持在3300点附近。4月以来，受特朗普政府所谓的"对等 关税"冲击，全球资本市场出现大幅波动，A股也被牵连。 不过，在中国多部门密集部署、推出多种举 措之后，A股有所反弹。 如何看待A股近期的走势？市场风险偏好是否正在边际性改善？东吴期货首席投资官吴照银为我们带来 他的解读。 0:00 南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 广州报道 A股"成绩单"表现亮眼 4月底，2025年一季报披露临近尾声，A股市场上市公司交出了一份较为亮眼的成绩单。截至4月27日， 超过2700家上市公司发布了2025年一季报，已发布一季报的公司中，约四成实现了营收和归母净利润的 双增长，约六成企业实现净利润同比增长，百余家公司增幅超100%。其中，基础化工、电力设备、有 色金属等板块表现突出。 市场风险偏好在稳步改善 吴照银：在过去的三周里，A股市场和全球资本市场的局势都有所缓和。尽管关税战尚未达成最终协 议，市场的整体趋势仍然是朝着稳定的方向发展。我们可以看到市场已经开始慢慢回升，波动幅度逐渐 减小，整体运行状态趋于平稳。同时，市场的风险偏好也在稳步改善。 在这个时间点上，我们对市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined from record highs due to easing trade concerns, currently trading below $3300, with significant economic data expected to influence short-term direction [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, has seen a strong performance this year, rising nearly $700 and reaching historical highs multiple times. However, optimism regarding global trade relations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from gold to riskier assets, which is a primary psychological factor pressuring gold prices [4][6]. - If market risk appetite continues to improve and global trade relations further ease, alongside a strengthening dollar, gold prices may face greater downward pressure [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to effectively break below the $3265-$3260 range to confirm a larger downward correction. If this level is breached, prices could quickly drop towards the $3225 50% retracement level, potentially targeting the $3200 mark. A drop below $3200 would suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term [4][6]. - The $3260 level has become a focal point for the market, and investors should closely monitor whether gold can touch or break this level. A significant breach would reinforce a bearish trend and could lead to deeper adjustments [6][7]. Trading Strategy - A conservative approach suggests waiting for a rebound near $3300 to enter short positions, targeting a break below $3260 to aim for $3230. More aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around the current price of $3287, with plans to add to positions on any rebounds [7][9].

4月23日，美股三大指数集体高开。据Wind数据显示，截至北京时间23:15，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 中概股表现强势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘后强势拉升， 截至北京时间23:15，该指数涨超4% 。 国际金价大幅回调，COMEX黄金期货、伦敦现货黄金盘中双双跳水；COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银则明显走高。 美股全线走高 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间23:15，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨2.32%、3.90%、2.85%。 美国大型科技股悉数走高。 截至北京时间23:15，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨幅为4.58%，特斯拉领涨，涨幅超8%。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数[MAG' | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 45123.80 1976.40 4.58% | | | | 招标 成分 | | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 一 | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 258.581 | 8.66% | | TSLA.O | | | | | 亚马逊(A ...

期货热点追踪 市场风险偏好回暖，金价大幅调整，沪金失守800元关键防线，短期避险逻辑遭重创？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded but was blocked. The US is in trade negotiations with other countries, and the Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened expectations of a bailout, leading to low market risk appetite. China's Q1 export and economic indicators exceeded expectations due to pre - tariff exports and policy support. The large - scale delivery of LME zinc inventory has raised concerns about overseas consumption, pressuring zinc prices at home and abroad. Domestic downstream buyers purchased at low prices, reducing social inventory to 100,000 tons, which provides support. The supply pressure is expected to increase as smelters have a mix of production cuts and restarts. Zinc ingot imports opened and then closed, with limited inflow of imported goods, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The galvanizing industry's operating rate increased slightly due to strong tower orders and some companies' pre - tariff exports, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries declined. Overall, as the US enters the tariff negotiation stage and China is expected to introduce policies to hedge against overseas risks, market sentiment is expected to improve but may be volatile. Fundamentals are weak, but strong downstream purchases and inventory reduction provide support. In the short term, there is no clear single - sided driver, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | April 11 | April 18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,660 | 22,050 | - 610 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,661 | 2,595 | - 66 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.52 | 8.50 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 63,857 | 58,585 | - 5,272 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 119,350 | 195,350 | 76,000 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 102,100 | 100,000 | - 2,100 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 120 | 160 | 40 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, rebounded but then fell back. With tariffs in the negotiation stage and macro - trading being volatile, along with a large - scale delivery of LME inventory, zinc prices closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.58%. On Friday night, the oscillation center moved slightly higher. LME zinc oscillated downward, closing at 2,595 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48% due to inventory increases and concerns about demand prospects [5] - In the spot market, as of April 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was 22,410 - 22,510 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers' inventory from previous purchases had not decreased, so their inquiry enthusiasm weakened, and traders lowered their quotes, causing the spot premium to continue to decline [6] - In terms of inventory, as of April 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 76,000 tons to 195,350 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 5,272 tons to 58,585 tons, and social inventory decreased to 100,000 tons. Due to lower zinc prices during the week, downstream buyers purchased more at low prices, with significant inventory reductions in Shanghai and Tianjin, while inventory in Guangdong changed little [7] - In the macro - aspect, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the inflationary effects of Trump's trade policies. Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and said that a US - Ukraine mineral agreement would be signed on the 24th. The US government initiated a 232 national security investigation on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Trump mentioned measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains. He was confident about reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was not in a hurry. The EU might impose export restrictions on the US if negotiations broke down. Trump said that US - Japan negotiations had made significant progress but no substantial documents had been signed. The European Central Bank cut interest rates. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized early and rapid policy implementation [7][8] - China's March export in US dollars increased by 12.4% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion US dollars, a 75.2% year - on - year increase. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. March industrial added value increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending April 18, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3,450 yuan/metal ton, and the average weekly imported TC was flat at 35 US dollars/dry ton [13] - An East China smelter plans to conduct maintenance on its zinc production line from May 5 to May 31, affecting about 4,000 tons of zinc ingot output. A Southwest smelter postponed its April maintenance to May. New maintenance was added in East and Central China, but with new capacity release and restart after maintenance, supply pressure is expected to increase. Some smelters plan to increase production, while others postpone maintenance due to high sulfuric acid prices [13][14] - A large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China has suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory and plans to stop production for inventory consumption. If inventory consumption is not good, it may extend the holiday or resume production after the May Day holiday [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio between domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory levels of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [16][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term outlook for the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be in consolidation [1]. - The short - term outlook for the soybean meal is likely to be in a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to large emotional fluctuations [2]. - The short - term corn futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3][4]. - After a sharp decline, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be considered [5]. - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be in a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6][7]. - The steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices are likely to oscillate at a low level [8]. - The coking coal and coke are likely to have a weak and volatile rebound at a low level, with limited upside space [9]. - The iron ore 2505 contract is likely to be in a short - term oscillation, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - For the WTI crude oil, attention should be paid to the support level of the INE crude oil main contract around 430 - 450 yuan/barrel after the sharp decline [11]. - The rubber market is likely to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating conditions of Shanghai rubber [13]. - The PVC futures price is likely to oscillate at a low level due to weak macro - sentiment [14][15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacts the futures market. Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil are expected to be neutral, and the inventory is likely to be in consolidation [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 30), Tianjin 3,270 yuan/ton (- 20), Rizhao 3,200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Dongguan 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Sino - U.S. tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete. U.S. soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply may be tight in the short - term but will turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and oil - mill inventories are neutral. Short - term sentiment is strong due to tariff events [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,088 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,293 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach a 12 - year high. The domestic supply pressure is reduced, and the demand from the pig - breeding industry is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors, and the price is mainly determined by domestic supply and demand [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan, down 4,540 yuan, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs cause overseas capital market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of stage resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 71,900 yuan/ton (- 1,500), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (- 1,200) [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the 70,000 - yuan integer support [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel - mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The short - term price is affected by macro - policy expectations [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 3.4756 million tons and 2.1713 million tons respectively [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 770 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 769 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [10]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs", the global capital market tumbled, and OPEC+ decided to increase production in May. The US PMI data contracted, and the demand is worried. The crude oil has entered a technical bear market [11]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of rubber, such as domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked sheets, and Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, are provided [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" impact China's tire and automobile exports. The global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the demand may be severely suppressed [13]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,800 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate is increasing, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to macro - tariff factors [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,464.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production is increasing, the inventory is accumulating at the factory and decreasing in the society, the demand is average, and the market is affected by macro - events and related varieties [16].