专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平出席并演讲。 他指出，2025年中国股票市场平稳恢复，2026年之后还会继续推进这一趋势。他判断，资本市场、股票 市场会在2026年甚至更长时间造就非常良好的运行态势，支持股票市场持续走好。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平出席并演讲。 连平指出，未来积极财政政策依然会继续保持，甚至更加积极有为的政策定位更加明确。我国总体财政 状况十分良好，有能力继续保持较好的财政扩张力度。未来，财政方面会继续对市场有较大融资需求， 不会出现明显收缩。 连平认为，传统领域包括房地产、基础设施建设等，可能在2026年之后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, "Two Major" projects and "Two New" funds are being gradually allocated, with the scale of the first batch of "Two New" funds narrowing compared to 2025, and the government is promoting economic development through various policies [1][12]. - Fiscal policy maintains an active stance in 2026, ensuring necessary expenditure intensity and increasing the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds [2]. - Monetary policy aims to achieve an "integrated effect" of incremental and existing policies, with the central bank net - buying treasury bonds and focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation in 2026 [3]. - Financial regulatory authorities have issued formal regulations on fees, relaxed bank EVE indicators, and are exploring innovative financial products [4]. - Real estate policies aim to stabilize the market, with measures such as reducing VAT on second - hand housing transactions and optimizing purchase restrictions in Beijing [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Tone - The dates for the 2026 National Two Sessions have been announced. The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5, 2026, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 4, 2026 [11]. - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods replacement has been pre - allocated to local areas in 2026, with a smaller scale than in 2025. The policy focuses on optimizing fund allocation and advancing ahead of schedule [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a 295 - billion - yuan pre - approved project list for 2026, including about 220 billion yuan for "Two Major" construction projects and over 75 billion yuan for central budgetary investment [13]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - In 2026, fiscal policy remains actively oriented, aiming to expand fiscal expenditure, optimize the combination of government bond tools, enhance transfer payment efficiency, and strengthen fiscal - financial coordination [17]. - Seven provinces have repaid 3.342 billion yuan of illegally added government implicit debts, nine regions' state - owned enterprises have returned 1.848 billion yuan of misappropriated agricultural loans, and two provinces and two regions have substantially resolved 170 million yuan of government debts [18]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds increased compared to the same period last year, with front - loaded policy implementation [19]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting proposed to achieve an "integrated effect" of incremental and existing policies, and the central bank will continue to deepen interest rate liberalization reform [22]. - The National Foreign Exchange Administration will deepen foreign exchange facilitation reforms and support financial institutions in developing simple and useful exchange - rate hedging products [23]. - In December 2025, the central bank net - bought 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds. Since October 2025, the central bank has restarted bond - buying operations, with purchase amounts of 20 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan in October, November, and December respectively [3]. - In 2026, monetary policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and other fields, and its growth rate is expected to exceed that of the total social financing scale [25]. 3.4 Financial Supervision - The formal regulations on fund fees have been issued, and regulators are researching and exploring innovative products such as REITs ETFs [28]. - Regulatory authorities have revised the interest - rate shock amplitude parameters for banks [29]. - Regulators have consulted wealth - management companies on obstacles to A - share investment and policy expectations, and many banks have reduced wealth - management management fees to 0% [29]. - The regulatory authority has issued a notice on bond transaction record - keeping to strengthen supervision [30]. 3.5 Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, control increments, reduce inventories, optimize supply, improve housing quality, and reduce VAT on second - hand housing transactions [33]. - Beijing has further optimized purchase - restriction policies, including relaxing requirements for non - Beijing households and supporting multi - child families [34]. - Vanke's proposal to extend the grace period for a 3.7 - billion - yuan bond was passed, but other extension proposals were not approved [34]. - An article in Qiushi magazine holds a positive view on future real estate policy space [35].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in 2026, with a focus on effective investment and economic stabilization, particularly in new infrastructure and urban renewal projects [1][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - Ningbo issued 25.372 billion yuan in local bonds on January 8, while Shandong was the first province to issue bonds this year with 72.381 billion yuan on January 5 [1]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the allocation of the 2026 local government debt limit, facilitating early issuance and usage of bonds to support key projects [2]. - As of January 8, 27 regions, including Beijing and Hebei, have disclosed bond issuance plans for the first quarter, totaling approximately 2 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Economic Impact - The newly disclosed special bonds are primarily directed towards new infrastructure and urban renewal, which are expected to enhance effective investment and stimulate domestic demand [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2026 is projected to see a significant issuance of special bonds, with an estimated scale of around 670 billion yuan [3]. - The focus on major projects in transportation, energy, and urban renewal is seen as essential for both expanding domestic demand and ensuring high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4]. Group 3: Trends in Special Bond Issuance - The issuance and utilization of special bonds in 2026 are anticipated to follow three main trends: steady expansion of issuance scale, continued front-loading of issuance rhythm, and an expanded range of funding applications [4]. - The expansion of the funding scope for special bonds will include quasi-public sectors such as the acquisition of existing residential properties [4]. - There is a need for enhanced evaluation mechanisms for special bond projects to ensure quality and prevent misuse of funds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in 2026, with a focus on effective investment and stimulating domestic demand, which will support a stable economic start in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2][3] Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - Ningbo issued 25.372 billion yuan in local bonds on January 8, while Shandong was the first province to issue local bonds in 2026, totaling 72.381 billion yuan on January 5 [1] - As of January 8, 27 regions, including Beijing, Hebei, and Shanxi, have disclosed bond issuance plans for the first quarter, with a total scale of approximately 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Focus and Economic Impact - The newly disclosed special bonds are primarily directed towards new infrastructure and urban renewal, which are expected to enhance effective investment and boost domestic demand [1][2] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see a concentrated issuance of special bonds, with an estimated issuance scale of around 670 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Policy and Management Trends - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the issuance of local government bonds and has indicated that the new debt limit for 2026 will be announced early to facilitate project funding [1][3] - There is a growing need for local governments to increase investment in major projects in transportation, energy, and urban renewal to meet the demands of domestic consumption and economic growth [3][4] Group 4: Evaluation and Oversight - The expansion of the scope of special bonds will increase the complexity of evaluating project profitability, necessitating more specialized personnel for oversight [4] - A more scientific performance evaluation system for special bond projects is recommended, including mechanisms for pre-, mid-, and post-evaluation [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of new policies for equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in subsidies in 2026, aimed at stimulating consumption and supporting economic growth [2][3][4] - The 2026 policy expands the scope of equipment updates to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas and support for various sectors such as elderly care and fire rescue [2][3] - The subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles is set at 12% of the vehicle price, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, while the subsidy for fuel vehicles is 10% with a cap of 15,000 yuan [3][4] - The new policy simplifies the categories of consumer goods eligible for trade-in subsidies, reducing from 12 to 6 categories, focusing on high-efficiency products [3][4] Group 2 - The 2026 budget for early investment in "two heavy" construction projects is approximately 2,950 billion yuan, with a significant increase in funding for urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland [5][6] - The new personal housing sales tax policy reduces the tax rate for properties sold within two years from 5% to 3%, while properties sold after two years are exempt from tax [7][8][9] - The national fiscal work conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, support innovation, and promote green transformation [10][11] - The State Council meeting outlines measures to promote cross-border trade facilitation, enhancing logistics efficiency and supporting new business models like cross-border e-commerce [12][13]

Core Insights - The total amount of policy-based funding in Shaanxi is expected to reach a historical high by 2025, aligning with the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The provincial development and reform commission is focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure effective economic growth and quality improvement [1] Funding and Investment Growth - The province aims to increase central budget investment, "two heavy" funds, and "two new" funds by 60%, 20%, and over 70% respectively [2] - Funding for labor-intensive projects and urban underground pipeline sectors is projected to grow by 90% and over 19% respectively, while funding for urban renewal and education is expected to increase by over 50% [2] Project Implementation and Economic Performance - Key provincial projects are advancing beyond expectations, with an annual investment completion rate exceeding 100% [2] - Significant breakthroughs have been achieved in major projects such as the Xi'an Extension High-Speed Railway and the Northwest's first 8-inch high-performance semiconductor production line [2] - From January to November 2025, the province's fixed asset investment growth rate consistently outpaced the national average by over 1 percentage point, with industrial investment increasing by 12.7%, surpassing the overall investment growth rate by 14 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic work this year, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and regulating tax incentives and subsidies [1] - Current economic operations in China are generally stable, with domestic demand continuing to support economic development, although consumption and investment growth have slowed in recent months, indicating that the potential of domestic demand has not been fully released [1] - The strategy to boost domestic demand should combine consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods, enhancing the intrinsic motivation for consumption through precise and effective fiscal measures [1] Group 2: Investment and Growth - The focus on stabilizing growth through effective investment is crucial for enhancing economic growth momentum and supporting the development of the real economy, despite facing downward pressure in the investment sector [2] - Policies are being implemented to promote consumption, expand effective investment, and encourage large-scale application of new scenarios, which are expected to build consensus and boost confidence [2] - Investment strategies should combine investments in physical assets with human capital, advancing urban renewal and effectively utilizing various government bond funds to support major projects and stimulate overall investment [2] Group 3: Social Welfare and Public Services - The aim of precise policies is to ensure that the benefits of fiscal policies reach grassroots levels and improve the well-being of the population, which in turn enhances consumption willingness and expands investment space [3] - Increased investment in the fields of employment, education, healthcare, and elderly care is essential to improve the social security system and public service supply levels, alleviating concerns for consumers [3] - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic foundation for addressing risks and challenges, while stabilizing growth is a necessary requirement for achieving high-quality development, with a focus on improving people's livelihoods being a priority for fiscal work [3]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 13-day winning streak, reaching a 10-year high, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) rising by 1.8% and attracting nearly 14 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The current period is seen as a critical buildup phase for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations of continued loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies in China until 2026, which may lead to a further recovery in total demand [1] - Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are progressing simultaneously, contributing to gradual improvements in demand [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The CSI A500 Index, with its overweight in advanced manufacturing, information technology, communications, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials, is positioned to deliver relative returns during the economic recovery phase [1] - Compared to the CSI 300, the CSI A500 emphasizes industry balance and leading companies in specific sectors, offering a more diversified style and higher growth exposure, which can provide a better Beta base during the industrial structure upgrade cycle [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of December 31, 2025, the CSI A500 Index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13% [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest among its peers, being more than three times that of the second-ranked product, indicating a growing interest from investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds for 2026 has officially commenced, with a total planned issuance of approximately 2.02 trillion yuan across 27 provinces in the first quarter, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach despite being lower than the previous year's actual issuance [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Shandong Province has issued 72.381 billion yuan in local government bonds, becoming the first province to do so in 2026 [1]. - The total planned issuance includes 1.4674 billion yuan in new general bonds, 6.71397 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.07822 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 8.71356 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [2]. - Seven provinces, including Sichuan (188.7 billion yuan) and Shandong (172.481 billion yuan), plan to issue over 100 billion yuan each [2]. Group 2: Debt Limitations and Policy Implications - The new debt limit for local governments in 2026 is capped at 3.12 trillion yuan, which is 60% of the 5.2 trillion yuan limit set for 2025 [3]. - The early allocation of new local government debt limits reflects the proactive and targeted nature of macroeconomic policies in China [3]. Group 3: Debt Management and Economic Stability - The total hidden local government debt has been significantly reduced from 14.3 trillion yuan to 10.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8 trillion yuan, representing a reduction of over 26% [4]. - The 2026 local bond issuance will focus on supporting infrastructure projects and addressing hidden debt, with an estimated net supply of local bonds reaching approximately 7.8 trillion yuan [6][7]. Group 4: Future Projections and Trends - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly in 2026, driven by higher infrastructure investment needs and the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [7]. - The overall trend for 2026 will feature expanded issuance, optimized structure, refined management, and improved efficiency, playing a crucial role in stabilizing growth and mitigating risks [7].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 霍星羽）Choice数据显示，2025年有色金属（申万行业2021年版）板块整 体涨幅为88.21%，"夺冠"全市场。步入2026年，这场"有色盛宴"是否仍将延续？ 记者采访获悉，2026 年有色板块上行逻辑不变，但波动幅度、择时难度将加大。2026年国内外宏观环境仍总体利多有色， 铜、铝、镍和锡等品种，有望出现结构性牛市。2026年一季度有色板块或迎来"开门红"。 华鑫期货研 究所所长章孜海接受上证报记者采访时表示，有色金属有商品属性和金融属性，受到宏观面与供需基本 面的双重影响。 中信建投期货有色首席分析师江露表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步 渐进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。 章孜海预计，下半年美联储或降息两次。国内，中央经济工 作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。海内外宏观面形成共振，对风险 资产的影响偏积极。 在江露看来，贵金属价格正处于高位强势运行状态，且这种态势持续向有色板块 传导。基本面也为金属价格提供坚实支撑。需求端，"十五五"规划长期利好有色需求，"智能化、绿色 化"政策会推动新能源汽车、光伏、特高压等领域高速发展，有色 ...