【#为何金价出现大逆转#？#全球央行仍在爆买黄金#】美东时间11月18日，国际金价、银价再次反弹， 现货黄金收涨0.54%，现货白银收涨1%，报50.68美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货 继续反弹。11月18日下午，现货黄金跌破4000美元/盎司关口，为11月10日以来首次。为何金价出现先 抑后扬走势？中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表示，金价此前连续几天下跌过快，市 场多头被迫止损后，盘面反而积累一定反弹需求。一旦美元指数和美债收益率回落，短线资金迅速回补 头寸，带动金价向上修复。最新数据显示，全球央行9月净购金达到64吨，是上月的两倍多。其中，中 国增持约15吨。李钢称，官方买盘让市场更愿意在低位承接，也缓和了此前的抛售情绪。对于金价走 势，李钢认为，短期波动将继续加大，金价行情仍取决于美联储议息前的经济数据和美元走势。（宅男 财经）#黄金又反弹# 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board on November 18, with the 2-year yield down 3.7 basis points to 3.573%, the 10-year yield down 3.1 basis points to 4.104%, and the 30-year yield down 2.1 basis points to 4.717% [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have weakened due to the prolonged government shutdown affecting economic data, leading to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The European Union has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 to 1.2%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, Germany's growth forecast has been raised to 1.2% due to increased public spending, while France's forecast has been lowered to 0.9% and Italy's to 0.8% [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a $95 billion 6-week short-term debt on November 18, followed by a $160 billion 20-year long bond and an unspecified amount of 17-week short-term debt on November 19 [5] - As of November 14, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $38.15 trillion, remaining above the $38 trillion mark for three consecutive weeks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is due to the market's pre - pricing of a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting. However, the long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, and prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance but also emphasized caution as interest rates approach the neutral level. Fed Governor Waller advocated for another rate cut in December due to a weak labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low - and middle - income consumers. White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out "mixed signals" in the job market, suggesting a possible slowdown, while real wages are rising and this trend will continue [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 940.88 yuan/gram and closed at 929.46 yuan/gram, a - 2.49% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 931.24 yuan/gram, a 0.19% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 12,220.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,933.00 yuan/kg, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,558,545 lots, and the open interest was 311,515 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,975 yuan/kg and closed at 11,983 yuan/kg, a - 0.42% change from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.139%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year to 2 - year spread was 0.54%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,432 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,625 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 724,872 lots, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 26,020 lots, and the short positions decreased by 21,951 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,791,606 lots, a - 5.26% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,044.00 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 21.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 564.90 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 77.89, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 80.01, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On November 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 82,068 kg, a - 31.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 759,026 kg, a 32.12% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to oscillate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to oscillate between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a downward trend on November 17, with prices fluctuating and ultimately closing lower, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Economic data releases are limited, with a focus on speeches from Federal Reserve officials and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from over 60% to 39%-41%, contributing to a rebound in the US dollar index by 0.25% to 99.54, which has pressured gold buying [4]. - Delayed economic data releases this week, particularly the September non-farm payroll report, are expected to increase market uncertainty [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weak downward trend, forming a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [3]. - The current daily moving average system is disorganized, with no clear bullish or bearish arrangement, leading to ineffective support and resistance levels [3]. - On the four-hour chart, gold has been in a downward trend, breaking below the key support level of 4032, with the price reaching a low of approximately 4007 [6]. - The decline from the high of 4245 has formed a complete five-wave structure, with the current price action likely in the first wave of a C-wave decline [6]. - Key support levels to monitor include 4007, 3980, and 3963, with 3980 corresponding to the weekly MA10 and 3963 being a significant Fibonacci retracement level [6]. Market Events - Upcoming economic data releases include the Australian Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, US import price index, industrial production, and NAHB housing market index [8].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（11月17日），美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.63个基点报3.608%，3年 期美债收益率涨0.28个基点报3.611%，5年期美债收益率持平报3.728%，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基 点报4.137%，30年期美债收益率跌1.20个基点报4.736%。 ...

虽然今年一段时间以来表现疲软，但近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对财政赤字的担 忧，美债有望迎来2020年来最佳年度表现。 然而，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信贷市场热掩盖的投 资者风险溢价不足，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 特朗普政府助力美债市场近期涨势 在美联储持续降息后，就业增长和消费支出正在放缓。虽然美联储官员近期分歧的表态令美股市场承 压，但美债市场仍在押注美联储进一步降息，且认为即使美国经济陷入衰退，也不会威胁到企业的资产 负债表。此外，美债投资者认为，尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价，但通胀压力仍在持续缓 和。 在美国政府重开之前，数据的有限性或限制美债的波动性，更倾向于窄幅波动。"他称，"与此同时，下 一任美联储主席的遴选取得进展，目前候选人减少至5人。无论是哪位当选，其政策主张都偏鸽派，我 们仍然认为货币政策宽松的可能性更高，或将带来美债利率的下行。" Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为债券经理 参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽 ...

本我青中的信息均源于公元可获得的资料、国资税分为救困问事。但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议、也未分对个别投资者持放的投资目标、好多优规或票、投资 者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据北投资，责任章负。本报告仅向榜定客户推选，未到国资期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及南第三京传播的行为收购成"国贸联货的景观 声 明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 II C E K E S 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 1）行情回顾：11月14日，沪金期货主力合约收跌0.29%至953.2元/克，沪镜期货主力合约收跌0.04%至1250元/于克。但周五夜盘、贵金属价格大幅下挫。伦敦金 一度跌破4050美元/盎司关口，沪金夜盘收跌2.53%至924.86元/克: 伦敦银跌幅一度超4%至60美元/盎司关口附近、沪银夜盘跌3.59%至11994元/千克。 同情况: 2）解析及短期展望：在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投资 ʊℓ腊微 者恐慌 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 11 月 16 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《中美股债再平衡》20250512 《美国 4 月零售、通胀数据平淡》20250518 《美债这波下挫有何不同?》20250525 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《降息应在涨价后——美联储 6 月议息会议点 评》20250619 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 《"大而美"法案加剧美国财政压力》20250707 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》20250720 《 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]