Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The long - term fiscal risk of US Treasury bonds is increasing, with factors like supply surge, debt structure deterioration, and high fiscal deficit pushing long - term interest rates up. However, recent market sentiment is driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, causing the 10Y Treasury yield to fall to about 4.06% [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Bond Interest Rate Review - As of November 21, the 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 5bp in two weeks to 4.06%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 6bp, and the 30 - year yield increased by 2bp [7] 2. US Treasury Bond Market Changes - In late October, the duration of Treasury issuance slightly increased, with 3 - year issuance at $57.4 billion, 10 - year at $41.86 billion, and 30 - year at $24.95 billion. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [7] 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.5 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, dropping to 165,700 contracts [7] 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - There are serious differences in the Fed's meeting minutes. Some officials support rate cuts, while others are cautious [8] 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 19, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance decreased by $41.87 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool decreased by $45.223 billion, indicating a marginal easing of liquidity [8] 4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 15, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.29 (2.27 two weeks ago), showing a short - term deterioration after stability [8] 5. Structural Deterioration of the US Treasury Bond Market - The total US Treasury debt has exceeded $38 trillion in 2025, with the debt - to - GDP ratio over 126%. The interest payment exceeds military spending, and the Treasury's short - term debt financing has formed a short - term debt backlog, making long - term interest rates likely to rise [11] 6. Overseas Investor Holdings - In September, Japan continued to increase its Treasury holdings, but the UK and China reduced theirs, causing the overall overseas holding ratio to reach a low. The weakening global motivation to increase holdings is due to factors such as rising exchange - rate hedging costs and concerns about the US fiscal situation [11] 7. Recent Market Sentiment - Driven by economic slowdown and rate - cut expectations, the 10Y Treasury yield has fallen. Institutional investors are re - allocating bonds, and the Bloomberg Treasury index's annual return is expected to reach a new high since 2020 [12]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（11月21日），美债收益率集体下跌，3年期美债收益率跌2.24个基点报3.500%，5年 期美债收益率跌2.79个基点报3.619%，30年期美债收益率跌1.19个基点报4.712%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

来源：滚动播报 9月非农就业报告显示失业率意外上升，带动美元延续走弱态势。丹斯克银行分析师在报告中指出，此 次失业率上升源于劳动力供给增加，缓解了劳动力市场的紧张状况，从而提振了市场对美联储降息的预 期，推动美债收益率和美元小幅回落。然而，分析师强调，这一数据尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强 有力信号，趋势难以为继。该行仍预计美联储12月将按兵不动，目前市场对降息的定价概率约为32%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（11月20日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌5.25个基点报3.533%，3年 期美债收益率跌5.84个基点报3.525%，5年期美债收益率跌5.76个基点报3.646%，10年期美债收益率跌 4.83个基点报4.085%，30年期美债收益率跌2.98个基点报4.723%。 ...

周三（11月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.55个基点，报4.1289%，日内交投于 4.0960%-4.1328%区间。两年期美债收益率涨1.48个基点，报3.5873%，日内交投于3.5537%-3.5978%区 间，美联储发布会议纪要后刷新日高。20年期美债收益率涨1.69个基点，报4.7164%；30年期美债收益 率涨1.59个基点，报4.7488%。三年期美债收益率涨1.40个基点，五年期美债收益率涨1.75个基点，七年 期美债收益率涨1.82个基点。02/10年期美债收益率利差大致持平，报+53.955个基点。10年期通胀保值 国债（TIPS）收益率涨1.94个基点，至1.8306%；两年期TIPS收益率涨4.05个基点，至1.0878%；30年期 TIPS收益率涨2.12个基点，至2.5264%。 ...

【#为何金价出现大逆转#？#全球央行仍在爆买黄金#】美东时间11月18日，国际金价、银价再次反弹， 现货黄金收涨0.54%，现货白银收涨1%，报50.68美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货 继续反弹。11月18日下午，现货黄金跌破4000美元/盎司关口，为11月10日以来首次。为何金价出现先 抑后扬走势？中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表示，金价此前连续几天下跌过快，市 场多头被迫止损后，盘面反而积累一定反弹需求。一旦美元指数和美债收益率回落，短线资金迅速回补 头寸，带动金价向上修复。最新数据显示，全球央行9月净购金达到64吨，是上月的两倍多。其中，中 国增持约15吨。李钢称，官方买盘让市场更愿意在低位承接，也缓和了此前的抛售情绪。对于金价走 势，李钢认为，短期波动将继续加大，金价行情仍取决于美联储议息前的经济数据和美元走势。（宅男 财经）#黄金又反弹# 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board on November 18, with the 2-year yield down 3.7 basis points to 3.573%, the 10-year yield down 3.1 basis points to 4.104%, and the 30-year yield down 2.1 basis points to 4.717% [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have weakened due to the prolonged government shutdown affecting economic data, leading to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The European Union has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 to 1.2%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [3] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, Germany's growth forecast has been raised to 1.2% due to increased public spending, while France's forecast has been lowered to 0.9% and Italy's to 0.8% [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a $95 billion 6-week short-term debt on November 18, followed by a $160 billion 20-year long bond and an unspecified amount of 17-week short-term debt on November 19 [5] - As of November 14, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $38.15 trillion, remaining above the $38 trillion mark for three consecutive weeks [6]