黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续维持震荡调整走势，大周期下行趋势未变。随着隔夜美联储官员的讲话，市场开始押注美联储降息，但笔者认为 不应过于乐观，最终结果可能低于预期。 降息预期再度升温，各期限美债收益率均出现回落，2年期美债收益率跌4.02个基点报3.7786%，5年期收益率跌1.59个基点报 3.845%，10年期收益率跌0.59个基点报4.2906%，30年期跌0.31个基点报4.8311%。 市场的观点是近期美国经济数据不佳，需要美联储降息以支持经济，大多数投行预期美联储最早从9月开始降息，今年可能最多 降息两次。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，目前只是美联储的预期管理，美联储内部的鸽派并未占据上风，且面对关税推高通 胀的风险，单一的经济数据并不能成为美联储降息的依据，投资者应谨防过高预期带来的爆冷。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，大概率只是对前期大阴线的调整。1小时周期面临上方长期均线和前期低点的双重压制，日内可能 以震荡为主，短线可关注下方3315美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜原油表现平淡，空间波幅极小，但也要谨防空间压缩后的爆发，基本面和技术面上，原油都面临很大的下行压力，基本面 和技术面可能处 ...

摘要周四(6月26日)本交易日现货黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3332.09美元/盎司，最高触及 3339.76美元/盎司，最低触及3328.99美元/盎司，截止发稿金价报3333.11美元/盎司，涨幅0.04%。 【黄金走势分析】 周三黄金整体还是震荡，开盘走高至3337后，出现回落，最低在3312，美盘再次走高至3340，全盘跟预 期一致，即没有单边走势，也没有较大空间的涨跌，低多策略能做出有效利润。目前黄金收盘在3334附 近，按照目前的表现来看，首先维持低位震荡，低多的看法不变，另外需要注意今天周四，在这个变盘 的时间节点是否能出现破位性行情。 【要闻速递】 美元兑欧元跌至2021年以来最低，但兑日元上涨，整体走势受抑。渣打银行外汇研究主管Steve Englander指出，市场对美联储降息预期的增强削弱了美元吸引力。联邦基金期货显示，交易员预计年 底前降息62个基点，较上周显著增加。同时，美国10年期公债收益率小幅回落至4.287%，反映市场对 降息时机的重新评估。 周四亚市，美元指数延续跌势，截止07:40，最低触及97.53，刷新2022年3月以来低点。美元走弱和美 债收益率回落通常利好黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline on June 25, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling to 4.2906% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.7807% [1] Group 1: 10-Year Treasury Yield - The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield decreased by 0.39 basis points, closing at 4.2906% [1] - Intraday trading for the 10-year yield ranged between 4.33% and 4.2749% [1] Group 2: 2-Year Treasury Yield - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 4.44 basis points, ending at 3.7807% [1] - The 2-year yield was in a downward trend throughout the day, trading between 3.8155% and 3.7664% [1]

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年06月25日08时14分 6、美联储巴尔：实际利率受到其他因素的显著影响，但美联储的政策确实发挥了作用。由于关税，通胀率将上升。美国经济基础稳固，失业率低且稳定，通胀仍在持续回落。 关税也可能导致经济放缓，失业率上升。货币政策处于有利位置，美联储将观望经济形势如何发展。由于短期内通胀预期上升、供应链调整以及二次效应，可能会出现一些通 胀持续的现象。 7、美联储卡什卡利表示，尽管近期的通胀数据"相当积极"，但美联储在调整政策前仍需要进一步明确关税将如何影响物价。"过去两三个月，我们得到的通胀数据相当积极，这 表明我所描述的反通胀路径已经走上正轨，"卡什卡利周二说， "但我们显然还没有看到关税的全部影响，所以我们一直在慢慢了解情况，然后再对我们的政策前景做出任何较 大的改变。"虽然一些美联储官员表示他们支持最快于7月降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔周二早些时候在国会对议员们表示，美联储并不急于降息，因为他和他的同事们正在等待 经济对包括关税在内的各种新政策做出反应。 投资咨询系列报告 1、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬24日在致伊朗人民的公开信中表示，经过伊朗人民英勇抵抗，这场 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 3.846%, the 10-year yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 4.355%, and the 30-year yield up by 4.3 basis points to 4.902% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to present the monetary policy report to Congress, facing pressure from the Trump administration and some Fed officials advocating for interest rate cuts [3][4] - The Federal Open Market Committee has revised its forecast for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for Q4 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4] Group 2 - In the European market, German bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.1 basis points to 2.557%, while Italian and French bond yields also saw upward movements [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.8 basis points to 1.437% [7] - The U.S. Treasury issued a total of $124 billion in two bond offerings, including $55 billion in 6-week bills and $69 billion in 2-year notes [7]

周一(6月23日)纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌2.76个基点，报4.3475%。两年期美债收益率 跌4.44个基点，报3.8633%。20年期美债收益率跌1.96个基点，30年期美债收益率跌1.42个基点。三年期 美债收益率跌5.05个基点，五年期美债收益率跌4.74个基点，七年期美债收益率跌4.18个基点。三个月 期国库券/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.49个基点，报+7.51个基点。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.49个基 点，报+48.02个基点。2/30年期美债收益率利差涨3.02个基点，5/30年期美债收益率利差涨3.32个基点。 美国10年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)收益率涨0.18个基点，报2.0247%。 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of oil price fluctuations and market risk preferences on asset allocation strategies [5][7] - The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance amid increasing internal disagreements, as indicated by the recent FOMC meeting [10][11] - The report highlights the stability of the LPR and the collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for cross-border payment systems [15][16] Group 1: Oil Price and Market Risk - Global equity markets showed poor performance in the week of June 20, with oil prices rebounding due to escalating Middle Eastern tensions, while gold prices declined [5][7] - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between $70.56 and $79.04 per barrel, with expectations of sustained high prices due to potential supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts [7] - The report suggests investing in energy, upstream sectors, and military industries due to the anticipated impact of rising oil prices on inflation and related costs [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting resulted in the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with a more hawkish dot plot indicating increased internal divisions among officials [10][11] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation and unemployment predictions were adjusted upward, reflecting a "stagflation" outlook [11][12] - Fed Chair Powell revised his previous stance on "transitory inflation," acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects due to tariffs and other factors [12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3359 points, reflecting a lack of strong buying interest [19][20] - The report notes that the banking, liquor, and electronic chemical sectors saw net inflows, while IT services and cultural media sectors faced significant outflows [21][22] - Market sentiment remains low, with only 22% of industry sectors closing in the green, indicating a cautious investment environment [20][21]

Group 1 - Recent trends in US Treasury yields show a decline in short-term rates and a slight increase in long-term rates, indicating a dual market dynamic of outlook and supply-demand mismatch [1] - As of June 20, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 2 basis points from two weeks prior, while the 2-year yield also fell by 2 basis points and the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point [1] - The US fiscal surplus turned negative in May, resulting in a deficit of $316 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit of $2 trillion, highlighting ongoing fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on June 19, with increasing internal divisions potentially leading to communication risks regarding future policy [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $7.7 billion over two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repo tool expanded by $33.3 billion, tightening short-term dollar liquidity [1] - Market conditions are facing risks from rapid oil price increases and tightening liquidity [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% at 42,206.82 points, the S&P 500 down 0.22% at 5,967.84 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.51% at 19,447.41 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Google down nearly 4%, Meta, Intel, Amazon, and Nvidia down over 1%, while Microsoft saw a slight decrease; Apple rose over 2%, and Netflix and Tesla experienced slight gains [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Futu Holdings down over 6%, Kingsoft Cloud down over 4%, JD.com down over 3%, and Bilibili down over 2%; however, Fangdd rose over 3% and Douyu increased over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 1.27% at 23,350.55 points, France's CAC40 index up 0.48% at 7,589.66 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index down 0.2% at 8,774.65 points [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices showed divergence, with U.S. oil main contract up 0.22% at $74.04 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract fell 1.94% to $77.32 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.09% at $3,384.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.13% at $35.95 per ounce [1] - London base metals all rose, with LME tin up 2.13% at $32,690.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.59% at $2,561.50 per ton, LME copper up 0.47% at $9,660.50 per ton, LME zinc up 0.32% at $2,649.00 per ton, LME lead up 0.15% at $1,995.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.03% at $15,060.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 3.60 basis points at 3.899%, the 3-year yield down 3.36 basis points at 3.858%, the 5-year yield down 3.69 basis points at 3.956%, the 10-year yield down 1.59 basis points at 4.373%, and the 30-year yield down 0.41 basis points at 4.887% [1] - European bond yields mostly decreased, with the UK 10-year yield up 0.7 basis points at 4.536%, while France's 10-year yield fell 2.8 basis points to 3.242%, Germany's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points to 2.515%, Italy's 10-year yield down 2.6 basis points to 3.493%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 2.3 basis points to 3.213% [1]