Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by fiscal and tax authorities indicate a shift towards more proactive fiscal policies, focusing on "investing in people" and promoting consumption alongside targeted support for key industries [1][4][6] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal policy is becoming more active, with a focus on tax fairness and reducing "involution" competition, which is expected to enhance the business environment and support industrial upgrades [2][3] - The recovery of fiscal revenue is attributed to the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures, which have improved corporate profits and, consequently, tax revenues [2][4] - The introduction of new tax policies, such as the resumption of VAT on interest from various bonds, aims to create a fairer tax environment and guide funds towards credit bond markets [2][3] Group 2: Investment in People - There is a noticeable increase in public budget expenditures on social security, health, and cultural sectors, reflecting a clear shift towards "investing in people" [4][5] - Recent fiscal policies include direct subsidies for child-rearing and education, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on families and stimulating consumer demand [4][5] - New policy financial tools, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, are expected to support key industries and consumer infrastructure, potentially boosting infrastructure investment by approximately 2% this year [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that fiscal policies will continue to be "more proactive, precise, and sustainable," with measures aimed at boosting consumption and supporting employment, particularly for youth [6] - Potential future measures include increased social security subsidies, support for vocational education, and enhancements to the social safety net to stimulate consumer spending [6] - The government may also utilize investment funds and long-term bonds to mitigate fiscal balance risks while promoting innovation and development in emerging industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by the financial and tax departments indicate a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on "investing in people" and promoting consumption while addressing tax fairness and reducing "involution" competition [1][5]. Group 1: Tax Policy and Revenue - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a recovery in fiscal revenue, with July's public budget revenue growth reaching a year-high, supported by improved corporate profits and tax collections [1][2]. - The restoration of VAT on interest from government bonds and the introduction of measures to ensure tax fairness are aimed at optimizing the business environment and fostering sustainable tax sources [2][3]. - The emphasis on a unified market and fair competition is expected to reduce local policy involution and speculative practices among enterprises, ultimately benefiting fiscal health [2][3]. Group 2: Expenditure and Social Investment - Recent budget expenditures have increasingly focused on social security, health, and cultural sectors, reflecting a clear shift towards "investing in people" [3][4]. - New policy financial tools and local government bonds are expected to support social welfare and consumption infrastructure, aiding in economic transformation [3][4]. - Cash and consumption subsidies are being introduced to alleviate the financial burdens on low- and middle-income households, stimulating consumer demand [3][5]. Group 3: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - Experts predict that fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive, precise, and sustainable," with measures aimed at boosting consumption and investing in human capital [5][6]. - Potential measures include increasing social security subsidies, enhancing vocational education, and improving social safety nets to stimulate consumer spending [5][6]. - The use of government investment funds and long-term bonds is anticipated to support innovation and attract social capital, further enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness [5][6].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with caustic soda, fuel oil, and crude oil leading gains, while lithium carbonate, coking coal, and the European shipping index saw declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 2.51% and crude oil by 1.13%, while lithium carbonate fell by 9.14% [1] - The black coal sector saw coking coal drop by 5.53% and coke by 2.95%, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.51% to $67.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose by 1.00% to $63.77 per barrel, indicating a wide fluctuation in oil prices [2] - OPEC+ reported a production increase of 263,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day, easing some supply concerns [2][3] - U.S. EIA data showed a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels, exceeding expectations, which provided short-term support for oil prices [3] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Insights - Palm oil prices saw a weekly increase of 1.40%, closing at 9,592 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics [5] - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% in June, reaching 3.61 million tons, despite an increase in production [5] - Malaysia's palm oil production growth has slowed significantly in August, with exports increasing by only 13.61% compared to the previous month [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Developments - China's fiscal revenue for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with tax revenue showing significant recovery [8] - Government spending for the same period totaled 1.60737 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on health and social services [8][9] - The real estate market continues to impact local finances, with high land sales in major cities indicating a potential recovery [9] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [10][11] - Powell emphasized the need to balance maximum employment with price stability, indicating a shift towards prioritizing employment [11][12] - Analysts expect the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, but the pace will be cautious due to inflation uncertainties [12]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with caustic soda, fuel oil, and crude oil leading gains, while lithium carbonate, coking coal, and the European shipping index saw declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 2.51%, crude oil increased by 1.13%, while lithium carbonate fell by 9.14% [1] - The black coal sector saw coking coal drop by 5.53%, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.51% to $67.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose by 1.00% to $63.77 per barrel, indicating a wide fluctuation in oil prices [2] - OPEC+ reported a production increase of 263,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day, easing some supply concerns [2][3] - U.S. EIA data showed a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels, exceeding expectations, which provided support for oil prices [3] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Insights - Palm oil prices saw a weekly increase of 1.40%, closing at 9,592 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics [5] - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% in June, reaching 3.61 million tons, despite an increase in production [5][6] - Malaysia's palm oil production growth has slowed significantly since August, with exports increasing by only 13.61% compared to the previous month [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Developments - China's fiscal revenue for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with notable growth in tax revenues [7][8] - Government expenditure during the same period totaled 1.60737 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a focus on social welfare and health spending [8][9] - The fiscal outlook indicates a continued emphasis on supporting economic stability through targeted spending and potential adjustments in land sales revenue [9] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [10][11] - Powell emphasized the need to balance maximum employment with price stability, indicating a shift in policy focus towards employment protection [12] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, but the pace will be cautious due to inflation uncertainties [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is significantly increasing its medium-term liquidity management through MLF and reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in August, the highest since February 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on August 25, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan after offsetting 300 billion yuan maturing this month, marking six consecutive months of increased MLF operations [1][2]. - The total net liquidity injection for August reached 600 billion yuan, double that of July, indicating the largest single-month medium-term funding injection in nearly six months [2][3]. - The operations reflect a deep coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, aimed at supporting the ongoing issuance of government bonds and meeting the financing needs of the real economy [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The liquidity tightening in the banking system was influenced by tax payments and the issuance of government bonds, which led to a temporary increase in short-term interest rates [4][5]. - The overnight repo rate (R001) peaked at 1.55% and the 7-day repo rate (R007) reached 1.58%, indicating a higher-than-seasonal level of liquidity tension [4]. - The PBOC responded by increasing open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 13.652 billion yuan from August 18 to 22, with a single-day operation reaching a recent high of 3.612 billion yuan on August 22 [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Direction - The PBOC's future monetary policy will focus on "policy implementation," with potential delays in rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, while maintaining flexibility in tool selection [6][7]. - The upcoming maturity of over 2 trillion yuan in reverse repos is expected to be managed without significant volatility, supported by the PBOC's proactive stance and fiscal spending at month-end [6][8]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to monitor liquidity conditions closely and may adjust policies to ensure a conducive environment for economic recovery [8].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Insights - The growth rate of general public budget revenue turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to July, ending the negative growth trend observed earlier in the year[4] - In July, the monthly growth rate reached 2.6%, the highest for the year, with both central and local revenue growth hitting new highs[4] - Major tax categories, including corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax, contributed 94% to the revenue growth, indicating a structural improvement in revenue sources[4][25] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to July, maintaining stability but showing significant divergence between central and local expenditures[5] - Central expenditure increased by 8.8%, while local expenditure growth fell to 2.5%, the lowest for the year, reflecting challenges in local fiscal management[5] - Social security and health expenditures showed strong growth, with social security spending increasing by 9.8% and health spending by 5.3%, while infrastructure-related expenditures remained weak[38] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, but the rate of decline improved, primarily due to better land transfer income[5] - Land transfer income decreased by 4.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market, while government fund expenditure surged by 31.7%[5] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerated, with completion rates reaching 63.1% of the annual quota, a 14 percentage point increase from previous values[5] Group 4: Policy Outlook and Risks - Future fiscal policies will focus on accelerating existing policies and enhancing new tools to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by recent government meetings[6] - Despite improvements in fiscal revenue and expenditure structures, challenges remain, particularly in meeting budget completion rates and addressing weaknesses in real estate-related tax revenues[6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, aiming to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for A-share market trends indicate a belief in a fluctuating upward trajectory, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies anticipating this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies consider current valuations to be reasonable, while 25% and 25.58% respectively view them as low [6]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Insurance institutions are particularly interested in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - There is a focus on investment themes including artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The primary risks identified by insurance asset management institutions and insurance companies for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. Group 6: Offshore Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of 2025, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [11].

5000亿“准财政”工具将出 重点支持新兴产业、基础设施等自今年5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备会。近期，部分地方更是进一步梳理出入库项目清单，明确了申报基金的金额。从地方透露信息来看，新型政策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，具体包括数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等.（21财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The LPR quote remained unchanged in August, and the monetary policy continued with a moderately loose tone. The signal of overall loosening was still unclear, which was in line with market expectations. Although the bond market was still disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market in the short term, its overall downward space was limited supported by the fundamentals and capital situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month change and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80%, up 0.50% month - on - month with a growth rate of 6.02%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.40% month - on - month with a decline rate of 0.80% [9]. - The US dollar index was 98.23, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1865, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.12%. DR007 was 1.57, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.48%. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 with a decline rate of 7.38%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.01%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.01% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The section includes figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It includes figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28]. IV. Spread Overview - It includes figures such as the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [31][38][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the，treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][72]. Market Analysis Macro Aspect - The Politburo meeting in July proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, manage the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, resolve local government debt risks actively and steadily, and prohibit the addition of implicit debts. On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds would be subject to value - added tax. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. On August 19, the Ministry of Finance announced market - making support operations to increase the supply of scarce bond types [1]. - In July, the year - on - year change of CPI was flat [1]. Capital Aspect - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds. However, the credit derivation efficiency was weak, and the medium - and long - term loans of residents and enterprises continued to shrink, with insufficient investment and consumption demand. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock was only 9%, mainly relying on government bond issuance to add leverage. The medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises remained sluggish, and a large amount of funds flowed to non - bank institutions [2]. - On August 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.473%, 1.534%, 1.596%, and 1.532% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [2]. Market Aspect - On August 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.43 yuan, 107.86 yuan, and 116.05 yuan respectively. The price change rates were 0.00%, - 0.10%, - 0.18%, and - 0.35% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.024 yuan, 0.137 yuan, 0.069 yuan, and 0.589 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase interest rate rebounded and the treasury bond futures prices fluctuated, it was recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - **Hedging**: There was medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors could use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

（原标题：毕马威报告：支持房地产市场止跌回稳，仍是今年经济工作重心） 毕马威中国最新发布的2025年三季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）显示，下一阶段经济运 行需要关注三方面问题：一是物价低位运行，将对下一阶段内需的修复带来挑战；二是房地产仍处于修 复阶段，今年4月以来，房地产修复进程再度出现波折；三是下半年出口或将走弱，全球经济增速放 缓，叠加美国正在设定新一轮的贸易协定，将对开拓新市场带来潜在负面影响。 报告认为，在新一轮政策性金融工具的支持下，基建投资有望企稳回升。房地产方面，将进一步因城施 策释放居民住房需求，并可能提高增量资金对房地产收储、城中村和危旧房改造等领域的支持，房地产 投资动能或将在下半年阶段性企稳。 从资金层面来看，报告预计，下半年的基建投资将有三类资金来源，一是尚待发行的增量政府债券。据 财政部披露，上半年已下达超长期特别国债资金预算6,583亿元，其中"两新"3,350亿元，"两重"为3,233 亿元，下半年还剩4,767亿元可继续推进。二是前期发行尚未使用的国债、一般债资金，上半年发行尚 未形成支出的额度在0.4万亿元，这部分资金也有望在三季度加速投放。三是关注政策性金融 ...