位于华盛顿特区的知名无党派预算监督机构联邦预算问责委员会（Committee for a Resp onsible Federal Budget，CRFB）对近期政府停摆行为进行了严厉批评 ，称其"毫无意义且浪费公帑"，同时披露2025财 年联邦赤字高达1.8万亿美元，数额惊人。据国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office，CBO）在 《月度预算评估》中报告所述 ，这一财政缺口反映了在政治僵局背景下对国家财政路径的持续担忧。 值此消息披露之际， 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正鼓吹以快速经济增长和关税驱动刺激计划，作为解决美 国37.8万亿美元债务（且仍在持续膨胀）的方案，而多数经济学家警告称，这些关税实际上相当于对消 费者或资本征税。 联邦预算问责委员会主席玛雅·麦吉尼亚斯表示，政府本财年预估借款规模虽未增长，但这正是令人担 忧之处。"尽管赤字较去年没有上升，但也未下降，而且我们仍在过度举债。美国的国家债务规模已与 整体经济规模相当，并且债务的经济占比将很快超过二战后创下的历史最高纪录。"麦吉尼亚斯指出， 美国未来十年年均借款额预计将接近2万亿美元。"谁会认为这种状况是可以持续的呢？" ...

关税政策变化显著影响资产价格，中国出口至美国综合税率约为 30%， 虽有关税壁垒，但中美经济互补性强，预计高额关税不会完全落实，双 方将寻求新的利益平衡点。 四季度债市环境预计优于三季度，短期内贸易战担忧或支撑债市偏强走 势，10 年期国债收益率或修复至 1.7%左右，突破后有望下探至 1.65%，但央行干预或限制进一步下行。 过去三个季度债市对基本面反应不敏感，实则反映经济边际变化不大， 绝对位置较低，需深入理解经济指标与市场行为的复杂关系，不能仅依 赖表面数据。 当前中国 5%的经济增速处于历史较低水平，债市已对此做出反应，10 年期国债收益率低于 2%，未来债市进一步下行需基本面持续走弱。 四季度货币政策预计维持稳健，降息降准概率较低，但国债买卖落地将 利好债市，若贸易摩擦加剧或股市不佳，央行可能采取宽松政策救市。 政策性金融工具由中央层面主导，倾向于支持民营企业项目，但配套资 金不足限制了社融扩张，对整体经济刺激作用有限。 固收 交易贸易摩擦，债市三步走 20251011 摘要 四季度整体经济环境预计好于三季度，贸易摩擦、财政与货币政策共同 作用下，看好债市修复机会，活跃券收益率或达 1.7%，股票市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds have become a prominent highlight of macroeconomic policy this year, aimed at consolidating and expanding the economic recovery momentum through increased investment and consumption [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Issuance and Scale - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for the year, concluding with the issuance of 50-year and 20-year bonds in October [1][2] - The issuance scale this year exceeds that of the previous year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy [2] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Support - The ultra-long-term special government bonds have been creatively utilized to support the expansion of domestic demand, particularly through significant investments in consumer goods replacement programs [1][2] - A total of 690 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer goods replacement subsidies, effectively stimulating market activity during the holiday season [1][2] Group 3: Project Implementation and Effectiveness - The funds from ultra-long-term special government bonds have been directed towards approximately 8,400 projects in key sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and transportation, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2][3] - The consumer goods replacement initiative has seen 330 million participants, generating over 2 trillion yuan in related sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of the policy in boosting consumer demand [2][3] Group 4: Policy Optimization and Future Directions - There is a need for enhanced supervision and management of fund usage to prevent inefficiencies and ensure timely project implementation [3] - Future considerations include optimizing subsidy application processes and potentially expanding the scope and standards of subsidies to better meet diverse market demands [3][4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is historically a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets often manifests at year-end [2][8][10] - In the baseline scenario, the GDP growth rate for the third quarter is estimated to be around 4.9%, leading to a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.2% for the first three quarters, which exceeds the annual target of around 5% [10][11] - The report suggests that even if the economy continues to show moderate decline in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not significantly deviate from the central level, the economic growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][12] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter provides a time window for concentrated project commencement in the fourth quarter, which can leverage local matching investments and potentially generate a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report indicates that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, suggesting that the pressure to achieve annual targets is relatively low, and the focus of policies may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing large-scale incremental stimulus measures [11][18] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure, with the report noting that negative sentiments have been largely priced in, making emotional recovery a key logic for recent market trends [4][14][18]

2025年10月9日，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，中国人民银行以利率招标方式开展11000 亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月份有8000亿元同期限逆回购到期，此次操作实现净 投放3000亿元中期流动性。央行开展如此大规模的逆回购操作，不仅是技术上的流动性管理， 更具有深刻的政策信号意义。这一操作清晰释放出央行积极应对潜在流动性缺口、稳固资金面 的明确信号，蕴含着稳增长、稳预期与防风险的多重考量。 央行选择在节后首个工作日立即出手，是对10月份乃至第四季度复杂流动性形势的前瞻性、针 对性应对，凸显了在复杂内外环境下货币政策精准调控、有的放矢的取向。这次操作背后，皆 在应对资金面潜在三重收紧压力。 首先，政府债券较大规模发行引起市场资金趋紧。 9月份全国共发行地方债12843亿元，净融 资额为11056亿元，发行量和净融资额均创年内新高。按照计划，今年新增地方债和超长期特 别国债均在10月份发行完毕，将继续吸纳市场资金。央行开展逆回购操作，精准地对冲政府债 券大规模发行带来的流动性压力，这是货币政策与财政政策协同、稳定市场预期的关键之举。 其次，政策性工具发力引致资金需求上升。 9月29日，国家发改委宣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a significant 1.1 trillion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, signaling proactive measures to address potential liquidity shortages and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Management - The PBOC's operation resulted in a net liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan, countering the 800 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing in October [1] - The large-scale reverse repo operation is a strategic response to the tightening liquidity caused by substantial government bond issuances, with local bonds reaching a record issuance of 1.2843 trillion yuan in September [1][2] - The operation reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize market expectations amid complex internal and external environments [1][3] Group 2: Structural Pressures - The introduction of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to increase funding demand, necessitating significant loans from commercial banks, which could create structural liquidity pressures [2] - Seasonal factors, such as increased cash demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, along with higher fiscal deposits, contribute to short-term liquidity tightening [2] Group 3: Policy Framework - The choice of a buyout reverse repo over traditional tools offers advantages such as longer terms and no collateral requirements, providing stable medium-term funding support [3] - The PBOC's recent actions are part of a broader trend of increasing liquidity support since the second half of 2025, indicating a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [3][4] - Future policies are expected to focus on fiscal strength and monetary easing, with a likelihood of continued use of reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to inject liquidity [4] Group 4: Coordination of Policies - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is anticipated to enhance economic development, with government bonds serving as a core link in this coordination [4] - The PBOC is expected to continue using government bond transactions to manage liquidity, promoting healthy bond market development and improving monetary policy transmission efficiency [4]

新华财经圣保罗10月10日电（记者杨家和）受财政政策不确定性及国会否决关键财政法案影响，当地时 间9日巴西金融市场承压运行。圣保罗证券交易所基准股指Ibovespa当天下跌0.31%，收于141708.19点； 雷亚尔兑美元汇率下挫0.61%，美元收报5.3754雷亚尔。 （文章来源：新华财经） 阿达同时提及，巴西最高法院已确认总统在相关税收政策中的法律权限，为政府在年底前维持财政稳定 提供了"必要保障"。 在宏观经济层面，巴西地理统计局当天公布数据显示，9月全国广义消费者物价指数（IPCA）环比上涨 0.48%，低于市场预期的0.52%。截至9月的12个月累计通胀率为5.17%。 受国内政治与财政因素叠加影响，巴西股市当日盘中虽一度重返143000点，但最终受石油巨头巴西国家 石油公司股价下跌拖累收低。与此同时，受全球市场避险情绪升温及美元走强影响，雷亚尔进一步走 弱。 巴西央行当天上午还举行了4万份美元掉期续作拍卖，用以对冲11月3日到期的合约，维持外汇市场流动 性稳定。 分析人士指出，市场情绪受前一日晚间国会下架政府关于金融交易税（IOF）替代方案的临时法令影 响。该法令原为卢拉政府提出的主要财政平衡措 ...

CBOE and we go to Kevin Hanks for our pre-bell playbook. A good morning to you, Kevin. How you feeling this morning after a record closes yesterday.Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, good strong close to the market yesterday. A very flat market to start the day as we look for day nine of the government shutdown.You know, today the uh one of the stories, well, there's a lot of stories. The biggest story probably being the Fed speakers. Jerome Pal just made the opening welcome to a re a banking conference in Washing ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in September experienced weak fluctuations at high levels, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by upcoming policy directions and the "14th Five-Year Plan" during the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in October [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed weak fluctuations in September, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by speculation on monetary and fiscal coordination and the resumption of national debt trading tools [2]. - Basic economic data released in September was generally weak, but the bond market maintained a bear steepening trend, indicating that market sentiment was driven more by regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than economic fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Supply Side - The expected issuance scale of general government bonds in October is around 1 trillion, with special bonds expected to issue approximately 224 billion [4]. - The total issuance of local government bonds in October is projected to be around 980 billion, with a net financing scale of approximately 700 billion [4]. Group 3: Liquidity - Cash demand is expected to increase, leading to a wider liquidity gap in October, with fiscal deposits projected to increase by around 1 trillion [5]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through various tools, keeping the interest rate and policy rate spread stable [5]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains stable, with a focus on the use of existing tools rather than introducing new ones, indicating a neutral to slightly loose policy stance [6]. - In September, the central bank's MLF and reverse repos both saw a net injection of 300 billion, maintaining the same scale as August [6]. Group 5: Fund Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of bond funds increased to 96,613 billion, with a net asset value of 110,577 billion, despite market volatility [7]. - The number of bond funds that ended their fundraising early remained consistent with the previous month, totaling 21 [7]. Group 6: Credit Spread - In September, credit bond yields rose, with mid-to-high-grade credit bonds seeing the highest increase of up to 16 basis points [8]. - The credit spread for short-term and medium-term bonds widened, with the 5-year credit bond increasing by 10 to 15 basis points [8]. Group 7: Yield Analysis - For a 3-month holding period, selecting credit bonds with a maturity of 6 to 10 years is expected to yield a return of approximately 0.70% to 0.90% [9]. - For a 6-month holding period, similar bonds are projected to yield returns of up to 1.80%, while for a 9-month period, returns could exceed 2.5% [9].

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...