研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元窄幅波动，当前交投于 7.118 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属强势上行，伦敦金上涨逾 75 美元，当前交 投于 4074 美元；伦敦银则站回 49 关口，当前交投于 49.65 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金最终收涨 2%，报 935.98 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收涨 2.85%，报 11719 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅下行，当前交投于 99.55 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率高开低走，当前交投于 4.136%附近。 1.美国政府动态：10 日讯，美国参议院正式通过新的持续拨款法案，该法案 将为政府 ...

欧市盘中，国际黄金强势攀升至4050美元上方，受疲软美国经济数据推动，市场对美联储降息的押注持 续升温，成为金价上涨的核心动力。IEXS盈十证券（IEXS外汇）分析师指出，黄金在3900美元区间确 立强支撑后，技术面呈现明确看涨信号，但需警惕潜在风险事件对行情的扰动，投资者可通过平台专业 工具精准把握趋势。 基本面来看，美国经济数据表现疲软，直接强化了市场对美联储明年降息的预期。在通胀压力逐步缓 解、经济复苏动能减弱的背景下，贵金属作为无息资产的吸引力显著提升。不过，IEXS盈十证券外汇 研究团队提醒，若美国政府停摆局面结束，市场避险需求可能边际下降，或将对金价形成短期压制，这 一潜在风险需通过平台实时资讯模块持续追踪。 技术面层面，IEXS盈十证券交易系统显示，黄金RSI指标位于中线以上，短期上行势头强劲。在成功突 破4050美元关键关口后，上方首要阻力指向布林带中轨4081美元附近，若能有效突破，后续有望向4129 美元及4147美元高位发起冲击。支撑端来看，4025美元、4000美元整数关口构成核心防御，一旦失守， 金价可能回调至3964-3987美元区间。值得注意的是，黄金自3900美元确立支撑后，已 ...

Group 1: Bitcoin - Bitcoin experienced a narrow fluctuation between $102,000 and $105,000, breaking through key resistance with a peak at $105,000 [1] - The current price is stable above $104,000, with limited short-term pullback potential and an upward channel intact, targeting $106,500 to $110,000 [1] - Institutional funds continue to flow in, with Bitcoin spot ETF management scale surpassing $60 billion, and long-term holders' supply ratio reaching 78% [1] Group 2: Ethereum - Ethereum followed Bitcoin's upward trend, breaking $3,600 with a daily increase of over 6%, targeting $3,670 to $3,700 [3] - Whale investors accumulated over 1.6 million ETH in October, indicating a potential accumulation phase, with historical data showing an average November increase of nearly 7% [3] - The number of active addresses on the Ethereum network has risen, suggesting increased user participation, while stable Gas fees indicate manageable network congestion [3]

11月10日金价速报，国内品牌金店的首饰金价仍在上涨，最高涨幅达11元/克，整体价格接近1280元大 关。其中，周大福的首饰金价上涨11元/克，报1279元/克，与潮宏基、周大生继续并列最高价金店；上 海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价1188元/克，为最低价金店。今日金价高低价差再次拉大，报91元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年11月10日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1273 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1277 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1279 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1256 | 元/克 | 4 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1277 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1273 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1279 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 12 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices rose nearly 2% due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and concerns over global economic slowdown driven by weak economic data [1][3] - As of the report, spot gold increased by 1.83% to $4,073.03 per ounce, while December futures rose by 1.76% to $4,080.50 per ounce [1] - Market participants currently estimate a 67% probability of a rate cut in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government and retail sector saw job losses in October, compounded by cost-cutting measures and increased layoffs due to AI applications, indicating a decline in employment [3] - A recent survey showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years due to concerns over the longest government shutdown in history [3] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported an increase in holdings from 1,040.35 tons to 1,042.06 tons, a rise of 0.16% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical risks, expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/g, with a change of 0.13 yuan compared to the previous day and - 2.56 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 37,088, and the position was 255,562 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 38 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 460,064, and the position was 4,303,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,984.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 183,645, and the position was 311,506. The inventory was 37,847,208.99 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,994.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 11,217, and the position was 102,295. The inventory was 483,133,331.10 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.70 dollars/ounce [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US Treasury will auction 125 billion dollars in Treasury bonds this week, along with about 40 billion dollars in corporate bonds, posing a severe test to market liquidity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. The Fed provides liquidity to the inter - bank market through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF). Geopolitical risks in Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela remain unresolved, and many central banks around the world are continuously buying gold, which may support precious metal prices [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000 yuan/g. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 50 - 55 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/kg [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - **Industry - level**: - **Nickel Ore**: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - **Refined Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs since November, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, government shutdown risks, and geopolitical tensions [2][8]. Gold Price Movement - As of November 10, gold prices have increased significantly, with spot gold at $4047.01 per ounce, up 1.16%, and COMEX gold at $4055.5 per ounce, up 1.14% [2]. - The gold jewelry index in the A-share market rose by 1.85%, with notable increases in stocks such as Cuihua Jewelry (up nearly 8%) and Hunan Gold (up over 5%) [5][6]. Market Drivers - The continuous rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including a weak dollar, risks associated with government shutdowns, and heightened geopolitical tensions [7]. - Weak employment data from the U.S. private sector has provided support for gold, with over 150,000 layoffs reported in October, the highest level for the same period in over 20 years [8]. Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), gold is expected to maintain its upward trend into next year, supported by ongoing central bank purchases from emerging markets due to de-globalization and strategic security concerns [8][9]. - The U.S. economic growth pressures are anticipated to persist into the first half of next year, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9]. Domestic Gold Consumption - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption totaled 682.73 tons, a decrease of 7.95% year-on-year, with jewelry consumption down 32.5% [11]. - However, demand for gold bars and coins increased by 24.55%, indicating a strong preference for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties [11]. - The domestic gold ETF saw a significant increase in holdings, with a year-on-year growth of 164.03% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10][11].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached around $4050, continuing a strong oscillating trend supported by recent U.S. market data indicating slowing job growth and low consumer confidence [1] - The latest employment data showed a weak performance, with over 150,000 layoffs reported in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, reflecting a slowdown in labor market growth [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with a nearly 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which lowers the holding cost of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the consumer confidence index to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, indicating increased economic uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - There are potential pressure factors in the market, as some U.S. government operations may resume, which could alleviate short-term economic risks and reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The main contradiction in the gold market is the interplay between interest rate expectations and risk appetite, with recent weak employment data and declining consumer confidence providing support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technically, XAU/USD is trading around $4050, with short-term support at $4020 and resistance at $4080, indicating a strong momentum but potential for pullback as it approaches resistance [2] - Observers are closely monitoring the dollar's performance and U.S. monetary policy information to assess potential price changes and market volatility characteristics [4]

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal decline, with short-term and long-term inflation expectations diverging. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2025 fell to 48.70%, down from 49.10%, remaining below the threshold of 50, indicating contraction [5][4]. - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for November 2025 decreased to 50.3, down from 53.6, reflecting declining consumer sentiment [5][4]. - The US refinery utilization rate for the week ending October 31, 2025, dropped to 86.0%, down from 86.6% the previous week [8]. - The US crude steel production for the week ending November 1, 2025, showed a slight year-on-year decline, with a production rate of 9.2%, compared to 9.9% the previous week [8]. Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodity prices mostly declining. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.29%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08%. In contrast, the emerging market stock index fell by 0.99%, and the developed market stock index decreased by 1.51%. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.63%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 4.07% [1][4]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with London gold down by 0.06%, the S&P-Goldman commodity index down by 0.54%, and IPE Brent crude futures down by 2.11% [1][4]. - In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.22%, and the overall index of China’s bonds decreased by 0.10% [1][4]. Policy Implications - The "data vacuum" due to the US government shutdown has intensified market volatility regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The release of the September CPI data was delayed from October 15 to October 24, and the October CPI report, originally scheduled for November 13, may also be delayed [2][20]. - Current market expectations indicate a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 33.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [20]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable monetary policy, with key deposit rates held at 2%. The ECB is cautious about ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which may impact future economic forecasts [21].