近日，第十二届富国论坛在苏州召开。南都.湾财社记者现场获悉，本届论坛以"重估.重构.重燃——AI 驱动下的中国资产价值跃迁"为主题，汇聚了国内顶尖专家学者、券商首席经济学家、首席分析师以及 富国基金的资深基金经理，共同探讨全球秩序变局下的资产配置与AI革命带来的投资机遇。 全球格局加速演进，AI引领投资逻辑重构 当前，地缘博弈加剧、技术封锁频现，全球宏观环境正经历深度重构，而AI(人工智能)引发的"算力革 命"加速产业生态迭代。浙江大学机器人研究院名誉院长、浙江大学求是特聘教授谭建荣在以"智启新 章，人工智能的影响与未来"为题的演讲中指出，信息技术革命正深度重构投资逻辑。他表示，未来希 望AI产业能够做到重估、重构、重燃，使人工智能技术跟其他产业更好地融合起来，推动中国从制造 大国走向制造强国，由中国制造转变为中国创造。 中国国际贸易学会中美欧研究中心主任、前驻旧金山、纽约总领馆经济商务参赞何伟文则从全球秩序变 局的角度出发，发表了题为"全球秩序变局，新格局新契机"的演讲。何伟文指出，中美经济深度互补， 供应链交织决定"脱钩"不可行，中国需以开放合作对冲单边主义，维护多边贸易规则。面对新格局，中 国应更主动参 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that the bond market remains stable, while the stock and commodity markets decline. The A-share market may experience short-term high-level fluctuations, but the medium- and long-term trend is stable and positive. The bond market is stable and improving, and the commodity market is in a low position with precious metals rising alone unable to rescue the market [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market rose slightly in the first half of the week and then fell back. The bond market is relatively stable due to its low risk, while the commodity market is still oscillating at the bottom. The sudden change in the Middle East situation has cast a shadow over the international crude oil market, and the repeated fluctuations in gold prices have added more uncertainties to the commodity market [2][10]. 2. Equity Market Core View - The A-share market climbed in the first half of the week and then fell back, remaining in a short-term oscillation range. Although the international situation shows signs of stability and relaxation, there are still local hidden dangers. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the medium- and long-term trend of the A-share market is stable and positive. The technology sector is expected to have a continuous market, and the consumption sector has great potential [13][14]. Allocation Suggestion - In the short term, the market fundamentals are good, and policies are expected to drive funds into the market. The consumption and technology sectors are expected to lead the market out of the short-term oscillation. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, grasping the opportunities in the technology and consumption sectors while retaining the allocation of the dividend sector [3][15]. 3. Bond Market Tracking Core View - The bond market is stable and improving. The central bank conducted a 500 billion MLF operation, and the issuance scale of bond ETFs continued to break through. With the injection of funds, the bond market will have continuous opportunities in the short term [4][38]. Bond Market Allocation Suggestion - In general, the bond market is still a stable allocation product for investors in the short term, but the medium- and long-term logic of the bond market has not been verified, and relatively flexible short-term bonds are more popular in the market [7][38]. 4. Commodity Market Tracking Core View - The commodity market rose and then fell again, remaining in a low position. The significant decline in metal products is the main reason for the market's decline. Gold has rebounded, but it is unable to drive the commodity market up. In the short term, gold may fluctuate at a high level, and it still has allocation value in the medium and long term [8][47]. Commodity Allocation Suggestion - It is recommended to maintain the allocation of gold in the short term and continue to observe in the medium and long term [8][48].

作者： 懒人养基 以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创 业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢 向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 来源：雪球 大家都抱怨投资难，但抱怨无用，想办法解决问题才是上策。 我在《提升自己的投资赚钱能力，就这几招》一文中曾说过，一靠自己不断小仓位实操、试错积累投资经 验，二靠借助专业机构的陪伴和服务提升自己。 其中，本身就较为成熟、被称为投资"唯一免费午餐"（躺赚）的资产配置方法，经过机构的悉心改进和完 善，可以让我们省去很多自己求索的功夫，比如已经推出几年的雪球三分法。 初初一看，三分法并没有什么高大上，很多人宁愿自己折腾也不屑去用，但它专治各种"一买就跌、一卖就 涨"的韭菜病，今天我们就来了解一下。 01 投资有不少错觉，而且很多人都会"中枪" 你是不是总在朋友圈刷到"牛基大涨"就心痒痒？是不是每天打开账户就忍不 ...

"我现在每天睁眼想的第一件事，就是看看金价涨了还是跌了。"小陈十分郁闷，感觉自己陷入了被金价 波动牵着鼻子走的怪圈里。 此外，地缘政治风险变化、美元指数走势以及全球央行购金行为等也是影响金价的重要原因。 "看黄金涨势那么好，我从今年4月初开始买黄金，不论是实物黄金还是黄金ETF，都买了不少。谁能想 到最近又跌了这么多，真是既舍不得卖，又不敢继续加仓，被套住僵在这里了。"像小陈这样心情随着 金价起起落落的黄金投资者并不在少数。 在4月22日突破3500美元/盎司的历史高位后，国际金价一直在3200—3450美元/盎司区间震荡。直到5月 份，随着中美关税谈判取得进展，市场避险情绪骤降，现货黄金最低跌至3120美元/盎司，国内金饰价 格亦随之跌破千元大关。然而，自5月19日起，黄金价格再度连续走高，并于5月21日重新站上3300美 元/盎司。 黄金价格不断波动，背后原因是什么？目前是应该卖出还是持有黄金呢？时间点该如何选择？对个人而 言，哪种投资方式更合适？ 围绕当前黄金投资者最为关注的几个问题，《金融时报》记者特别邀请中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研 究员刘英和格上基金研究员焦冰，对以上问题进行观点分享。 《金融时报 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a correction last week, with a risk preference retreating from high levels. The MSCI Global Index fell by 1.9%, with developed markets down by 2.1% and emerging markets down by 0.5% [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index was the weakest, declining by 1.3% [3][10] Sector Performance - In the US market, defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well, while technology sectors faced adjustments. The S&P 500 saw a decline of 2.6% [10] - In the European market, utilities and communication services led with gains of 2.6% and 2.3%, while consumer discretionary and energy sectors lagged behind [10] - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains in the materials and healthcare sectors, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively [10] Valuation Trends - Developed markets' overall valuation decreased, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 21.9x and 3.5x, respectively, placing them at the 86% and 97% percentile levels since 2010 [21] - Emerging markets' valuations improved, with PE and PB ratios at 15x and 1.9x, respectively, at the 72% and 85% percentile levels since 2010 [22] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for global markets were mostly revised downwards, with Hong Kong showing a notable upward revision. The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 2214 to 2222 [27] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 264 to 263, with the consumer discretionary sector seeing the largest upward revision of +0.2% [27][28] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened marginally last week, with macro liquidity indicators showing a mixed trend across regions. The US and China saw interest rates decline, while European rates slightly increased [30] - The tightening of liquidity was reflected in the increase of long-term bond yields in major countries, with the UK, Japan, and the US seeing the largest increases [30] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook showed divergence, with the US economy experiencing a marginal decline in sentiment, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 48.7% [35] - In contrast, the European economy maintained stability, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49% and service PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion [43]

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices over the past year has led to increased interest in gold ETFs, which allow investors to hold gold in a more accessible manner compared to traditional methods [2][4] - Gold ETFs are essentially a financial product that securitizes physical gold, enabling small investors to participate in gold investment with minimal capital [2][5] - The popularity of gold ETFs reflects a broader trend of investor anxiety amid declining deposit rates and increased stock market volatility [4] Group 1: Gold ETF Characteristics - Gold ETFs allow for the securitization of physical gold, breaking it down into smaller units for easier trading [5] - They offer low-cost advantages, with management fees ranging from 0.3% to 0.6%, eliminating the need for physical storage costs [6] - The products come with dual risks, including counterparty risk and potential issues with the underlying gold reserves [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - In Q1 2025, global gold ETF holdings surged by 226.5 tons, indicating a significant increase in demand [4] - The volatility of gold ETFs is highlighted by their average return of 15% in Q1 2025, but with a high volatility rate of 12%, which poses risks to investors [3] - The emergence of inverse gold ETFs introduces additional risk, as they can lead to losses even when the investor correctly predicts market direction due to compounding effects [3][6] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Recommendations - The growing interest in gold ETFs among retail investors, including those with limited financial knowledge, raises concerns about potential market bubbles [4] - Experts recommend that gold ETFs should be used as a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio, suggesting a maximum allocation of 5%-10% of total assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of China's consumption and investment landscape within the global economic framework, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending while managing trade surpluses and capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Structure - China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth has accelerated since 2020, primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, despite a significant decline in real estate investment [4][5]. - The high investment and savings rates in China have led to substantial production capacity, which is largely absorbed through exports, resulting in record trade surpluses [6][10]. - The trade surplus reached nearly $99 billion in a single month, with annual figures exceeding 7 trillion yuan, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Policy Measures - Recent policy measures, such as consumption vouchers, have temporarily boosted consumer spending, but their long-term effectiveness remains questionable [7]. - Consumer confidence indices show that income confidence has remained around long-term averages, but the "scar effect" from the pandemic has significantly dampened consumer sentiment [8][9]. - Household savings continue to grow, with M2 growth rebounding, yet the fundamental savings behavior of consumers has not changed [8][9]. Group 3: Global Economic Relations and Capital Flows - China's strong investment and weak consumption are likely to maintain high trade surpluses, leading to continued accumulation of foreign assets estimated at $2-3 trillion [10][12]. - The U.S. has responded to China's trade surplus with tariffs, which have not effectively reduced import costs and may have exacerbated inflationary pressures domestically [12][14]. - There is a shift in capital flows, with funds increasingly moving towards non-U.S. assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong [12][14]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The article highlights the potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from these capital flows, with significant IPO activity indicating renewed investor interest [14][15]. - The outlook for Hong Kong as a major financing center is positive, supported by the ongoing global economic interconnections and China's relative advantages [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has seen significant attention on micro-cap stocks and bank stocks, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index recently reaching a historical high and the Shenwan Bank Index hitting a new high since 2021, indicating a shift in capital preferences and providing a differentiated allocation strategy [1][2]. Group 2: Bank Stocks - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to public fund reforms that increase the allocation capacity for bank stocks, leading to more capital inflow into the banking sector [2]. - The implementation of policies aimed at increasing long-term capital market participation, such as requiring insurance funds to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares, is expected to bring additional funds to high-dividend assets like banks [2]. - In a market characterized by ongoing fluctuations and declining risk-free interest rates, bank stocks are appealing due to their high dividend yields and stable payouts [2]. Group 3: Micro-Cap Stocks - Recent monetary policies, including a total of 800 billion yuan in support for fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase loans, have significantly expanded market liquidity, further enhancing the small-cap growth trend [3]. - The volatility in the broader market has led to frequent rotations among industry sectors, highlighting the elastic advantage of micro-cap stocks, which can experience substantial price increases with capital inflows due to their smaller market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Investment Vehicles - For investors looking to participate in these two popular sectors, ETFs such as the Bank ETF Preferred (SH517900) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (SZ159552) are recommended for safer exposure [3]. - The Bank ETF Preferred (517900) has outperformed its benchmark by over 11% and the CSI 300 Index by more than 50% over the past three years, showcasing its strong excess return capability [5]. - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has also delivered over 11% excess returns relative to the CSI 2000 Index this year, indicating its effectiveness as an index-enhanced fund [8]. Group 5: Strategic Insights - The simultaneous rise of bank and micro-cap stocks reflects a market seeking certainty amid uncertainty, with bank stocks providing stable dividends to counter volatility and micro-cap stocks offering high elasticity for excess returns, creating a balanced investment strategy [6][7].

在港股方面，刘鸣镝表示，其流通盘和流动性整体尚可，虽不及内地市场活跃，但相较于其他国际市场 依然具备竞争力。与此同时，港股对企业的上市门槛较高，定价机制相对透明，业绩表现良好的公司更 容易获得市场认可。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，近段时间南向资金持续流入。据相关数据统计，截至5月21日，港股通标 的股中，南向资金合计持有4288.88亿股，占标的股总股本的比例达17.19%，合计持股市值47991.50亿 港元，占标的股总市值的比例为13.14%。 刘鸣镝指出，香港市场形成了自身独特的生态体系和运作逻辑，具备一定的制度优势。越来越多的大型 企业选择赴港上市，也为内地与全球投资者提供了更加多元、优质的投资标的。 国际资金偏好港股 港股也成为国际资金配置中国资产的重要战略要地。刘鸣镝表示："越来越明显的是岸上的投资人也喜 欢到港股来买这些优质的成长股。" 中经记者 郝亚娟 张荣旺 上海 北京报道 近日，在2025摩根大通全球中国峰会媒体见面会上，摩根大通首席亚洲及中国股票策略师刘鸣镝表示看 好港股，对A股也相对看好。 刘鸣镝指出，目前南向资金已占港股交易量的20%—25%，相较于2016年，其对港股定价的边际影响 ...

5月23日，第十二届富国论坛在苏州市顺利举办。本届论坛以"重估·重构·重燃——AI驱动下的中国资产 价值跃迁"为主题，汇聚了知名学者，以及来自券商的首席经济学家、首席分析师和富国基金的资深基 金经理，共同探讨全球秩序变局、AI产业趋势，以及资产配置、行业投资机会。 本届论坛采用"线下+线上"联动模式，吸引了近1000位投资者与资管行业专业人士现场参会，线上直播 实时观看人次突破1400万。通过深度洞察与实战策略的碰撞，论坛为资管行业呈现一场高水准的思想盛 宴。 与会首席一致将科技与红利列为年度投资主线。刘晨明建议关注低波红利与创新药出海；张启尧看好 AI下游应用及服务消费的"双阶升级"；李超认为红利资产提供"防御"底线，AI、智能驾驶等新质生产力 代表长期"进攻"方向。 尽管面临复杂多变的外部环境，与会首席普遍认为中国资产在全球再平衡中凸显配置价值。政策呵护、 制造业韧性及技术突破构成核心支撑，黄金、军工、AI应用成为穿越波动的"压舱石"。正如主持人富国 基金首席经济学家袁宜所言："在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，中国经济和中国资产的确定性反而相对 更强。" 第二场圆桌论坛以"中流击水，基金投资势与道"为主题，国 ...