1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The copper market is affected by tariff issues and economic uncertainties, with the potential for price fluctuations. The price of copper is supported by the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - The price of coking coal is expected to be weak due to the high - production expectation on the supply side and the off - season consumption on the demand side [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate as the market is in a loose state and the upward movement of the futures price lacks fundamental support [10]. - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, and the supply and demand of crude oil have improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously operate and lightly buy put options on crude oil [11][12]. - The price of asphalt is recommended to be cautiously operated, and it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - The price of PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as new production capacity, slow downstream recovery, and the decline of crude oil prices [14][15]. - The price of plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level because of factors including new production capacity, the off - season of downstream demand, and the decline of crude oil prices [16]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short at high prices due to factors such as the decline of demand and the fall of coal prices [17][18]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas [19]. - The price of soybean oil is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the growth period and the US biodiesel policy [20][21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term under the suppression of weak demand [22][24]. - The price of hot - rolled coil may be under pressure if the billet export policy is restricted and the production capacity is released [25]. - The price of urea is expected to consolidate, waiting for new market drivers, with weak fundamentals and some support from export and the end of summer fertilizer sales [26][27]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market trend**: Opened low and closed high with a late - session rally [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is still increasing, the global copper inventory is being depleted at different speeds, and the demand is weak except for low - price purchases. The tariff issue may cause price fluctuations, and the decline of the US dollar index supports the price [3]. Coking Coal - **Market trend**: Opened low, fluctuated under pressure, and closed down more than 3% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from coke enterprises is low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market trend**: Opened high, closed low, and rallied at the end [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of spodumene is rising, the domestic production is increasing, the import is weakening, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is in a loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Crude Oil - **Market trend**: Affected by geopolitical events [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, the supply and demand have improved marginally, and attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. It is recommended to cautiously operate [11][12]. Asphalt - **Market trend**: Followed the decline of crude oil [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is restricted, and the basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [14][15]. Plastic - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The start - up rate has increased, the downstream demand is in the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [16]. PVC - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price of coal has declined. It is recommended to go short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Meal - **Market trend**: Oscillated slightly with a 0.10% increase [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data is neutral to slightly bearish, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, the inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [19]. Soybean Oil - **Market trend**: Oscillated with a 0.03% decrease [20][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data has limited impact, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [20][21]. Rebar - **Market trend**: Rose first and then fell [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has increased, the inventory depletion has slowed down, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [22][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market trend**: Rose slightly after facing resistance [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is weak, the cost support is weakening, and the export sustainability is questionable. The price may be under pressure [25]. Urea - **Market trend**: Opened low, was under pressure during the session, and rallied at the end to turn positive [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has little change, the demand is weakening, the inventory is being depleted due to export, and the price is expected to consolidate [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including expectations of an oscillating adjustment for soybean meal futures, a decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks for crude oil with a suggestion to cautiously buy bearish options, and a slow rise in copper prices with opportunities to go long at low prices. It also provides trend analyses and operation suggestions for other varieties such as asphalt, PP, and more [3][5][10]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 09 - contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing with a 0.78% increase. In the US, the proportion of soybean crops in drought - affected areas decreased, and favorable weather is expected. In China, the soybean crushing volume reached a record high last week, and the expected volume this week remains high. The market is supported by increased import costs but has limited upward momentum, likely to oscillate [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention and subsequent cease - fire between Iran and Israel, Middle - East geopolitical risks have significantly decreased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. With seasonal demand and supply - demand improvements, it is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [5]. Copper - The copper market is currently oscillating strongly. Fed rate - cut uncertainty supports non - ferrous metals. China's copper production is high but may decline later. Demand has weakened marginally but remains resilient. Global inventories are decreasing, and copper prices are expected to rise slowly in oscillations [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high, oscillated, and closed lower. Supply is sufficient, and the price is approaching the cost line. Downstream demand is mainly for essential needs, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply is increasing, and downstream demand is mixed. The Middle - East geopolitical risk has decreased, and the price has fallen. The basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13][15]. PP - PP downstream and enterprise operating rates are low. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure is high. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic operating rates have increased, but downstream demand is weak. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure remains. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply and demand are both weak. Inventory is high, and the market is affected by factors such as the Indian policy and coal prices. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 09 - contract oscillated after a slight decline. The US soybean weather is favorable, and China's soybean crushing volume is high. The market lacks external guidance and is expected to oscillate within a range [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. The market is expected to return to a loose state, and short - selling opportunities at high prices should be watched [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose slightly. Supply has decreased, and demand is seasonally weak. Macro - level expectations provide support, but continuous price increases face pressure, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices oscillated slightly higher. Supply is stable, and demand is seasonally weak but supported by macro - level expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Inventory has decreased due to port shipments. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 27 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 5%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 930 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 724/吨，较上个 交易日+5 元/吨。基本面来看，俄罗斯乌海、山西等地受环保安全检查的影响， 供应端减量，数据来看，近期上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，安全月后减产消 息频发，焦煤减产减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力的缓解来说 表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，本期铁水产量增加，钢 厂自用的情况下，焦炭的生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低 位，房地产仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格长期阴跌后，市场情绪被 蒙煤事宜点燃，空头力量减弱，近期安全月多发检修，支撑盘面上行逻辑，但终 端需求不足依然是拖累，基本面宽松，后续关注逢高空机会。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 25 日 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面低开高走，日内拉涨近 3%。随着期货盘面的反弹，现货市场情绪转 为高涨，叠加出口集港加速，企业出货增加，部分装置出现停售。基本面来看， 近期出口集港数量增加，国内尿素供需宽松的压力有所释放。供应端近期河南装 置有临时停车情况，肥易通统计口径尿素产量短期降至日产 20 万吨以下，6 月 7 月高温天气影响装置多发临检。需求端，买涨不买跌情绪影响，反弹后市场备货 积极性增加，农需继续跟进中，复合肥工厂终端走货不畅，处于秋季肥淡季拿货 阶段，复合肥市场不温不火。本期库存去化，主要系港口法检的开放，企业陆续 出货集港，缓解厂内库存压力。整体来看，今日盘面反弹受多重原因影响，出口 港检的开放提振市场情绪，供需目前依然维持宽松状态，后续供需缺口还需出口 缓解，关注近期国内尿素出口情况，短期内价格预计震荡偏强。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 碳酸锂受消息面刺激午后拉涨，日内反弹 3%左右，SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 5.99 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 50 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价 5.83 万元/吨，环 比上一工作日下跌 50 元/吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。基本面来看， 2025 年 5 月我国碳酸锂进口总量约为 21146 吨，环比减少 25%，同比减少 14%。 进口均价约为 9392 美元/吨，较 4 月均价环比下跌 1.7%。5 月碳酸锂进口数量环 比 4 月有走弱，但依然维持较高位水平，国内盐湖及云母端开工积极性高，下游 拿货观望市场价格为主，成交相对清淡，电池材料企业开工排产低位维持刚需拿 货，供应宽松下库存延续累库趋势，目前基本面制约盘面上方高度，虽消息层面 刺激行情反弹，碳酸锂震荡偏空格局不变。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对位于卡塔尔的美军基地 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 中东地缘风险尚未缓解，EG偏强运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4539元/吨（较前一交易日变动+68元/吨，幅度+1.52%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）80元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推动明 显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨产能， 后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面偏强运行，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-39美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为227元/吨（环比 +77元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

黄金下跌触碰平台位！反弹趋势能持续多久？中东地缘风险能否继续推动多头情绪？TTPS交易学长正 在分析中，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

国投期货 环渤海港口高卡煤溢价 元/吨 2800 300 2700 | 蒙煤Q5500-Q5000(右) 蒙煤Q5500 蒙煤Q5000 2600 270 2500 2400 2300 240 2200 2100 2000 210 1900 1800 1700 180 1600 1500 1400 150 1300 1200 120 1100 1000 900 90 800 700 600 60 500 400 300 30 200 100 O 13:6 13:00 14:2 146 14:10 15:2 1:56 15:10 16:2 166 16:10 19:2 19:02 18:12 18:10 19:2 19:0 20:2 2016 20:00 21/2 21/6 21/0 23/2 23/6 23/0 24/2 24/6 21/0 2:02 25/ 層投期货 数据来源： mysteel，国投期货 国投票报 Inter ETS 11:5 原油:中美乐观预期&中东地缘风险 双双升温，狂飙行情能否延续? 旺季临近,6月热点品种精粹 (能源直播间) 2025年度 · 第4期 国投期货研究院 动力煤:中期底部 ...