1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The copper market is affected by tariff issues and economic uncertainties, with the potential for price fluctuations. The price of copper is supported by the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - The price of coking coal is expected to be weak due to the high - production expectation on the supply side and the off - season consumption on the demand side [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate as the market is in a loose state and the upward movement of the futures price lacks fundamental support [10]. - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, and the supply and demand of crude oil have improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously operate and lightly buy put options on crude oil [11][12]. - The price of asphalt is recommended to be cautiously operated, and it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - The price of PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as new production capacity, slow downstream recovery, and the decline of crude oil prices [14][15]. - The price of plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level because of factors including new production capacity, the off - season of downstream demand, and the decline of crude oil prices [16]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short at high prices due to factors such as the decline of demand and the fall of coal prices [17][18]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas [19]. - The price of soybean oil is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the growth period and the US biodiesel policy [20][21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term under the suppression of weak demand [22][24]. - The price of hot - rolled coil may be under pressure if the billet export policy is restricted and the production capacity is released [25]. - The price of urea is expected to consolidate, waiting for new market drivers, with weak fundamentals and some support from export and the end of summer fertilizer sales [26][27]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market trend**: Opened low and closed high with a late - session rally [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is still increasing, the global copper inventory is being depleted at different speeds, and the demand is weak except for low - price purchases. The tariff issue may cause price fluctuations, and the decline of the US dollar index supports the price [3]. Coking Coal - **Market trend**: Opened low, fluctuated under pressure, and closed down more than 3% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from coke enterprises is low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market trend**: Opened high, closed low, and rallied at the end [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of spodumene is rising, the domestic production is increasing, the import is weakening, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is in a loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Crude Oil - **Market trend**: Affected by geopolitical events [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, the supply and demand have improved marginally, and attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. It is recommended to cautiously operate [11][12]. Asphalt - **Market trend**: Followed the decline of crude oil [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is restricted, and the basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [14][15]. Plastic - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The start - up rate has increased, the downstream demand is in the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [16]. PVC - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price of coal has declined. It is recommended to go short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Meal - **Market trend**: Oscillated slightly with a 0.10% increase [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data is neutral to slightly bearish, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, the inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [19]. Soybean Oil - **Market trend**: Oscillated with a 0.03% decrease [20][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data has limited impact, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [20][21]. Rebar - **Market trend**: Rose first and then fell [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has increased, the inventory depletion has slowed down, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [22][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market trend**: Rose slightly after facing resistance [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is weak, the cost support is weakening, and the export sustainability is questionable. The price may be under pressure [25]. Urea - **Market trend**: Opened low, was under pressure during the session, and rallied at the end to turn positive [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has little change, the demand is weakening, the inventory is being depleted due to export, and the price is expected to consolidate [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including expectations of an oscillating adjustment for soybean meal futures, a decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks for crude oil with a suggestion to cautiously buy bearish options, and a slow rise in copper prices with opportunities to go long at low prices. It also provides trend analyses and operation suggestions for other varieties such as asphalt, PP, and more [3][5][10]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 09 - contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing with a 0.78% increase. In the US, the proportion of soybean crops in drought - affected areas decreased, and favorable weather is expected. In China, the soybean crushing volume reached a record high last week, and the expected volume this week remains high. The market is supported by increased import costs but has limited upward momentum, likely to oscillate [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention and subsequent cease - fire between Iran and Israel, Middle - East geopolitical risks have significantly decreased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. With seasonal demand and supply - demand improvements, it is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [5]. Copper - The copper market is currently oscillating strongly. Fed rate - cut uncertainty supports non - ferrous metals. China's copper production is high but may decline later. Demand has weakened marginally but remains resilient. Global inventories are decreasing, and copper prices are expected to rise slowly in oscillations [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high, oscillated, and closed lower. Supply is sufficient, and the price is approaching the cost line. Downstream demand is mainly for essential needs, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply is increasing, and downstream demand is mixed. The Middle - East geopolitical risk has decreased, and the price has fallen. The basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13][15]. PP - PP downstream and enterprise operating rates are low. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure is high. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic operating rates have increased, but downstream demand is weak. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure remains. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply and demand are both weak. Inventory is high, and the market is affected by factors such as the Indian policy and coal prices. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 09 - contract oscillated after a slight decline. The US soybean weather is favorable, and China's soybean crushing volume is high. The market lacks external guidance and is expected to oscillate within a range [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. The market is expected to return to a loose state, and short - selling opportunities at high prices should be watched [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose slightly. Supply has decreased, and demand is seasonally weak. Macro - level expectations provide support, but continuous price increases face pressure, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices oscillated slightly higher. Supply is stable, and demand is seasonally weak but supported by macro - level expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Inventory has decreased due to port shipments. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to face resistance due to weak terminal demand despite short - term upward support, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [3] - The price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain variable. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] - The price of copper is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term, with the subsequent direction guided by the Fed's policy and the implementation of copper tariffs [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term and remain bearish in the long - term [12] - It is recommended to operate cautiously on asphalt and go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level [15] - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [16] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level recently [18] - Soybean oil futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to show an oscillating adjustment [21] - Urea is expected to oscillate and consolidate currently, and the subsequent trend depends on export quotas [22] Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, rising nearly 5% on the day [3] - Spot price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was reported at 930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 724 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to environmental and safety inspections. Demand was weak. The market sentiment improved, but terminal demand was insufficient. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3] Crude Oil - Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East have cooled rapidly, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. However, uncertainties remain, such as the implementation of the cease - fire agreement and US sanctions [4][5] - Fundamentals: Entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude inventories falling to a low level and OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, with an upward breakthrough in the price range [10] - Fundamentals: Supply was still increasing, while global copper inventories were being depleted at different rates. Demand was boosted by export but was weak in the terminal market. It is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: Opened low and closed high, with an upward - trending price center [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and the price was approaching the cost line. Downstream demand was cautious, but the new energy market sales were good. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the long - term [11][12] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly operating rate increased, and the July production plan increased. Inventories were at a low level [13] - Demand: Downstream operating rates varied, and the national shipment volume increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] PP - Operating rate: Both downstream and enterprise operating rates decreased, and the production ratio of standard products declined [14] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and inventory pressure was high. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15] Plastic - Operating rate: The operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased, and the overall was at a low level [16] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] PVC - Operating rate: Both upstream and downstream operating rates decreased, and the export situation was complex [17] - Fundamentals: Social inventories increased, and demand was not substantially improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18] Soybean Oil - International situation: The weather in the US soybean - producing areas was conducive to production [19] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were expected to rise. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] Soybean Meal - International situation: The weather in the US was beneficial to soybean growth [20] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were accumulating rapidly. It is expected to show an oscillating adjustment [20][21] Urea - Supply: The daily output was stable, and the supply pressure was relieved by exports [22] - Demand: The new order volume decreased, and the support from compound fertilizer factories was limited. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [22] Market Overview - As of the close on June 27, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, coking coal rose nearly 5%, and industrial silicon rose more than 4% [7] - In terms of fund flow, funds flowed into contracts such as SHFE copper 2508 and flowed out of contracts such as SHFE gold 2508 [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 25 日 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面低开高走，日内拉涨近 3%。随着期货盘面的反弹，现货市场情绪转 为高涨，叠加出口集港加速，企业出货增加，部分装置出现停售。基本面来看， 近期出口集港数量增加，国内尿素供需宽松的压力有所释放。供应端近期河南装 置有临时停车情况，肥易通统计口径尿素产量短期降至日产 20 万吨以下，6 月 7 月高温天气影响装置多发临检。需求端，买涨不买跌情绪影响，反弹后市场备货 积极性增加，农需继续跟进中，复合肥工厂终端走货不畅，处于秋季肥淡季拿货 阶段，复合肥市场不温不火。本期库存去化，主要系港口法检的开放，企业陆续 出货集港，缓解厂内库存压力。整体来看，今日盘面反弹受多重原因影响，出口 港检的开放提振市场情绪，供需目前依然维持宽松状态，后续供需缺口还需出口 缓解，关注近期国内尿素出口情况，短期内价格预计震荡偏强。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market for lithium carbonate remains in a volatile and bearish pattern despite a short - term rebound due to news stimulation, with supply - demand fundamentals constraining upward movement [3]. - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has sharply decreased, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil has improved. However, due to large geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to close long - call options on crude oil [5]. - For copper, the cease - fire agreement increases investors' risk appetite. Although the supply is expected to be tight, weak terminal consumption restricts the rise of spot premiums, and it can be traded within a range [11]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase, and with the decline of geopolitical risk, it is recommended to cautiously operate and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. - PP, plastic, and PVC are all expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and the decline of geopolitical risk [14][16][17]. - The soybean crop in the US has good growth conditions, and the supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient. The market for soybean oil is expected to be strongly volatile, while the market for soybean meal will continue to oscillate [19][20]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are loose, with no expectation of a significant increase, and the night - session support needs to be monitored [22]. - The fundamentals of urea are loose, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bearish, with the follow - up of agricultural demand and export news determining the rebound strength [23]. Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - The price rebounded about 3% intraday due to news, but the SMM average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [3]. - In May 2025, the import volume decreased by 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, and the import average price decreased by 1.7% month - on - month [3]. - With high domestic production enthusiasm, weak downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation, the market remains bearish [3]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased significantly after the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories have continued to decline, and OPEC+ production increases are lower than expected, improving the supply - demand situation [5]. Copper - After the cease - fire, investors' risk appetite increases. The supply is expected to be tight, but the inventory situation varies globally [11]. - As of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.54% compared to the previous month. In June, the demand is weak due to the off - season [11]. - The price fluctuates within a small range, and range trading is recommended [11]. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.4%, and the 6 - month refinery production plan increased [12]. - The downstream construction rate of road asphalt decreased to 22.6%, and the national shipment volume increased by 5.99% [12]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. PP - The downstream construction rate decreased to 49.63%, and new production capacity was put into operation in June. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [14]. - With the decline of geopolitical risk and the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The construction rate decreased to 81%, and the downstream construction rate decreased to 38.69%. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [15]. - Affected by tariffs and the decline of geopolitical risk, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [15][16]. PVC - The production rate decreased to 78.62%, and the downstream construction rate continued to decline slightly. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is still high [17]. - With the improvement of real estate data being limited, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 contract of soybean oil fell 2.21% today. The US soybean growing area will have suitable temperature and precipitation, which is negative for the market [18][19]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 950 million tons this month. The support from oil prices has weakened, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal fell 0.16% today. As of June 22, the US soybean growing conditions were good, and the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [20]. - With large production and limited downstream demand, it is expected to continue the oscillating market [20]. Coking Coal - After the cease - fire, the market for coking coal weakened. The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal remained unchanged [22]. - With an increase in domestic coal production and inventory, and weak demand for coke, the fundamentals are loose, and the night - session support needs attention [22]. Urea - The urea futures closed down today, with weak spot market transactions. The supply is expected to increase, and the international supply pressure has eased [23]. - The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The medium - to - long - term trend is oscillating and bearish [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not eased, and EG is operating strongly. The recent Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, strongly pushing up the cost of ethylene glycol. The fire incident of three cruise ships in the Oman Bay and the expansion of the shutdown of Iranian EG plants have also contributed to the strong performance of the EG market [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - Regarding inventory, different data sources show a decline in MEG inventory in the East China main port. The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply side will gradually resume in June, with a low overall load, and the supply - demand structure will still show a benign inventory reduction throughout the month. However, the cancellation and outflow of warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot in the market. Overseas supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, the new maintenance plan of bottle - chip factories weakens the demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large - scale EG plants [2]. - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, focusing on the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract yesterday was 4,539 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,547 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the content Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The bottle - chip factories have new maintenance plans, resulting in a weak demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 537,000 tons (down 27,000 tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and the potential for a rebound, while also considering the impact of geopolitical risks in the Middle East on bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have recently touched a support level, raising questions about the sustainability of the rebound trend [1] - The article highlights the influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical risks on market sentiment, suggesting that these factors may continue to drive bullish behavior among investors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term bottom of thermal coal is emerging [3][4]. - For crude oil, both the optimistic expectations in China and the US and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, and it is questioned whether the soaring market can continue [3][8]. - For asphalt, it has encountered a decline after reaching a five - year high, and it is questioned whether the cracking trend has reversed [3][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Thermal Coal - The premium of high - calorie coal at Bohai Rim ports is presented, showing the price trends of Mongolian coal with different calorific values [5]. Crude Oil Demand - side Outlook - The results of the London talks are limited, and there are still uncertainties in the reciprocal tariffs. The China - US container ship departure volume and shipping freight rates are affected by trade policies [12][13]. - A series of trade events have occurred, including the US - UK trade agreement on May 8, the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement on May 12, the Sino - US presidential phone call consensus on June 5, and the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism on June 9 - 10. Attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress before the expiration of the US tariff exemptions for most countries on July 8 and the expiration of the 24% reciprocal tariff exemption between China and the US in mid - August [14]. - The 4 - week average year - on - year growth rate of US refined oil apparent demand is +0.5%, with gasoline at - 2.5%, diesel at - 5.9%, and jet fuel at +1.3%. The latest ground congestion index is up 0.1% year - on - year [23][25]. - The refining profits of European and American refineries are under pressure again, and the subsequent start - up demand is more seasonally supported [26]. Geopolitical Risks - There are continuous geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as the US - UK joint air strike on the Houthi in January, the Russian terminal being attacked by Ukrainian drones in January, the Iranian consulate in Syria being attacked in April, the Iranian attack on Israel in April, and the Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran in April. The Brent crude oil price has risen significantly due to these events [30][32][33]. - The Strait of Hormuz is an important oil transportation channel. In 2023 H1, its crude oil and condensate transportation volume was 14.7 million barrels per day, and the refined oil transportation volume was 5.8 million barrels per day. Threats to block it can cause significant fluctuations in oil prices [35]. Supply - side Situation - Some oil tankers are under sanctions, which affects the transportation of oil. The production and export of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil are also affected by various factors [37]. - The number of US non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and the capital expenditure plans of US shale oil listed companies are related to oil production [43][44]. - The production and production targets of OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, are presented [48][51][52][53]. Price and Inventory - The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are affected by various factors such as the financial crisis, OPEC's production decisions, and geopolitical events [55]. - The inventory data of crude oil and refined oil, including on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory, are provided [59][62]. - The global demand for OPEC + crude oil supply, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory are analyzed [64]. Asphalt Cracking Situation - In March 2025, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks. After late May, the cracking has declined from the high level, but the upward elasticity of the cracking spread remains unchanged due to low supply, low inventory, and other factors. The sudden rise in oil prices since June 11 has caused the BU cracking to decline passively [71]. Supply - side Constraints - The year - on - year changes in asphalt production of different regions and enterprises in 2025 are presented. Local refineries have problems with non - quota raw materials and rely on crude oil quotas. The import of Venezuelan oil by local refineries in 2025 has accelerated the consumption of crude oil quotas, and the production and export of Venezuelan crude oil are still restricted [72][73][78]. Demand - side Situation - The road demand for asphalt has limited new demand growth, but the maintenance demand is rising. The consumption of asphalt for road maintenance is gradually catching up with that for new road construction. In the neutral scenario, the asphalt demand for roads in 2025 is expected to be 21.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [87][90]. - The shipment of 54 sample asphalt refineries has been improving since late April, and the year - on - year growth has turned positive since the end of May. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds and the domestic sales of road rollers are positive, and Q3 is a key observation window for asphalt demand [94]. Inventory Situation - The asphalt inventory is at a relatively low level, and the balance sheet is expected to continue the de - stocking trend in the third quarter [95][97].