地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 27 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 5%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 930 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 724/吨，较上个 交易日+5 元/吨。基本面来看，俄罗斯乌海、山西等地受环保安全检查的影响， 供应端减量，数据来看，近期上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，安全月后减产消 息频发，焦煤减产减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力的缓解来说 表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，本期铁水产量增加，钢 厂自用的情况下，焦炭的生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低 位，房地产仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格长期阴跌后，市场情绪被 蒙煤事宜点燃，空头力量减弱，近期安全月多发检修，支撑盘面上行逻辑，但终 端需求不足依然是拖累，基本面宽松，后续关注逢高空机会。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 25 日 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面低开高走，日内拉涨近 3%。随着期货盘面的反弹，现货市场情绪转 为高涨，叠加出口集港加速，企业出货增加，部分装置出现停售。基本面来看， 近期出口集港数量增加，国内尿素供需宽松的压力有所释放。供应端近期河南装 置有临时停车情况，肥易通统计口径尿素产量短期降至日产 20 万吨以下，6 月 7 月高温天气影响装置多发临检。需求端，买涨不买跌情绪影响，反弹后市场备货 积极性增加，农需继续跟进中，复合肥工厂终端走货不畅，处于秋季肥淡季拿货 阶段，复合肥市场不温不火。本期库存去化，主要系港口法检的开放，企业陆续 出货集港，缓解厂内库存压力。整体来看，今日盘面反弹受多重原因影响，出口 港检的开放提振市场情绪，供需目前依然维持宽松状态，后续供需缺口还需出口 缓解，关注近期国内尿素出口情况，短期内价格预计震荡偏强。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 碳酸锂受消息面刺激午后拉涨，日内反弹 3%左右，SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 5.99 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 50 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价 5.83 万元/吨，环 比上一工作日下跌 50 元/吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。基本面来看， 2025 年 5 月我国碳酸锂进口总量约为 21146 吨，环比减少 25%，同比减少 14%。 进口均价约为 9392 美元/吨，较 4 月均价环比下跌 1.7%。5 月碳酸锂进口数量环 比 4 月有走弱，但依然维持较高位水平，国内盐湖及云母端开工积极性高，下游 拿货观望市场价格为主，成交相对清淡，电池材料企业开工排产低位维持刚需拿 货，供应宽松下库存延续累库趋势，目前基本面制约盘面上方高度，虽消息层面 刺激行情反弹，碳酸锂震荡偏空格局不变。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对位于卡塔尔的美军基地 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 中东地缘风险尚未缓解，EG偏强运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4539元/吨（较前一交易日变动+68元/吨，幅度+1.52%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）80元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推动明 显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨产能， 后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面偏强运行，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-39美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为227元/吨（环比 +77元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

国投期货 环渤海港口高卡煤溢价 元/吨 2800 300 2700 | 蒙煤Q5500-Q5000(右) 蒙煤Q5500 蒙煤Q5000 2600 270 2500 2400 2300 240 2200 2100 2000 210 1900 1800 1700 180 1600 1500 1400 150 1300 1200 120 1100 1000 900 90 800 700 600 60 500 400 300 30 200 100 O 13:6 13:00 14:2 146 14:10 15:2 1:56 15:10 16:2 166 16:10 19:2 19:02 18:12 18:10 19:2 19:0 20:2 2016 20:00 21/2 21/6 21/0 23/2 23/6 23/0 24/2 24/6 21/0 2:02 25/ 層投期货 数据来源： mysteel，国投期货 国投票报 Inter ETS 11:5 原油:中美乐观预期&中东地缘风险 双双升温，狂飙行情能否延续? 旺季临近,6月热点品种精粹 (能源直播间) 2025年度 · 第4期 国投期货研究院 动力煤:中期底部 ...

市场快讯 -- 以色列对伊朗发动袭击,原油涨停 | | | | | | | 2025/6/13 | 实时价 | 漆味 | 漆烘幅 | 日增仓 | 持仓量 | 成交量 | 成交持仓比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (手) | (万手) | (万手 | | | 原油2507(元/桶) | 535.2 | 44.1 | 8 98% | | -3.278 - 2.10 | | 13.43 - 6.39 | | ICE原油(美元/桶) | 75 | 5.64 | 8.13% | | | | | | WTI原油(美元/桶) | 73.81 | 5.77 | 18% | | | | | | 燃料油2509(元/吨) | 3234 | 252 | 450% | | 26.615 ++ 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | | 沥青2509(元/吨) | 3683 | 175 | 4.99% | 26.615 | 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | 倘若以色列空袭伊朗设施,或者霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,进而引发 局部冲突, ...

2025 年 06 月 12 日 合成橡胶：原油偏强，短期震荡有支撑 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,225 112,068 | 11,230 104,597 | -5 7471 | | | （07合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 22,765 | 21,708 | 1057 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 625,573 | 589,374 | 36198 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 275 | 370 | -95 | | | 月差 | BR06-BR07 | | -10 | -35 | 25 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,350 | 11,400 | -50 | ...

黄金行情讲解中 黄金小幅回调3300是否失守？中东地缘风险再度升级！金价何时触及阶段支撑？TTPS团队交易学长正 在讲解，立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday, and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract is also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Slightly stronger oscillating; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][5] - Core logic: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence to buy in the rubber market. However, the new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the rubber - tapping season arrives. The downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Despite a 0.74% decline in the 2509 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Rising; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][7] - Core logic: Although macro factors are turning optimistic, the US debt crisis in June may cause a negative impact. OPEC+ is increasing production, and oil demand is expected to be weak. But the news of Israel's possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has driven up oil prices. Despite a 0.86% decline in the 2507 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]