Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International reported strong mid-year results for 2025, with significant increases in revenue and profit, leading to a positive market response and an increase in target price by analysts [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached $597 million, a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - Shareholder profit amounted to $248 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 124.19% [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend of HK$0.65 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 20% [1] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia following the commissioning of its second-phase capacity [1] - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the next two years by 7% and 9%, projecting profits of $374 million and $500 million respectively [1] - The target price for the stock has been increased by 58% to HK$52.59, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that BYD's gross margin has significantly declined due to intense price competition, leading to a continuous drop in per-vehicle profitability [3] - In response to industry challenges, the company has increased R&D and capital expenditures while providing additional incentives to dealers, resulting in heightened cost pressures and short-term profit constraints [3] - Although vehicle sales increased year-on-year in the first half of the year, there was a quarter-on-quarter decline in the second quarter, indicating intensified competition and difficulties in cost control [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, if the company can maintain steady sales growth and stabilize prices, it is expected to drive a recovery in per-vehicle profitability, with fixed cost pressures potentially easing as capacity utilization improves [3] - The company is actively promoting overseas capacity expansion and export growth, with new production bases in Thailand, Indonesia, and Brazil set to launch, which will enhance the proportion of overseas business and support long-term profit growth [3] - Despite facing short-term pressures from price wars and high investment impacting cash flow, the company's diversified business, technological leadership, and global market expansion are expected to help mitigate competitive risks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC is in a phase of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - demand of PVC continues the extremely weak trend, with high - level production supply, weak domestic and export demand, and continuous accumulation of social inventory, which has now reached a level close to that of the same period last year [3]. - For traders, terminal customers, and production enterprises with inventory, it is recommended to short - hedge futures based on the weak reality. For those who need to purchase PVC, it is recommended to purchase as needed, and to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation Supply - In August, the overall PVC production showed an increasing trend. Although maintenance caused a certain reduction in supply, the release of new production capacity of 500,000 tons led to an overall increase in production [6]. - In 2025, the first - quarter production capacity of 300,000 tons was put into operation. Fujian Wanhua's 600,000 - ton capacity was included in production on August 2. It is expected that the annual production capacity growth rate will be 6.37%, and the pressure of production capacity release remains high [8]. - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. There were fewer maintenance plans in the first ten - day period, with the start - up reaching around 79 - 80. In the middle and late ten - day periods, maintenance increased, and the start - up dropped to around 72 - 38 [8]. Demand - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. Production is weak in the high - temperature summer season [9]. - This week, the sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.17% month - on - month and increased by 9.13% year - on - year. As of August 17, the final anti - dumping duty decision on PVC in India is waiting for the announcement of the Indian Ministry of Finance, estimated to be announced and implemented in about 20 - 30 days. The prices in the Chinese mainland have generally increased by 46 - 62 US dollars/ton, while those in Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Chinese Taipei have decreased. In the short term, there is a certain rush - to - export performance. Pay attention to the implementation time of the Indian anti - dumping duty, which will have a negative impact on China's exports if implemented [9]. Inventory - As of August 28, the original sample inventory in East China was 445,400 tons, an increase of 3.44% from the previous period and a decrease of 3.91% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 766,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The sample inventory in South China was 52,500 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous period and an increase of 44.23% year - on - year. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. Raw Materials - **Lancoke**: In August, the Lancoke price rose slightly twice. The price of medium - sized Lancoke in Shaanxi increased from 606 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 645 yuan/ton, a 6.6% increase. The start - up rate of Lancoke increased from 53.65% at the beginning of the month to 56.7%. In the future, with the end of some enterprise maintenance and the weakening of coal prices, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: In August, the calcium carbide market price showed a flat "V" - shaped trend, with the end - of - month price rising compared to the beginning. The average start - up load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased in the first ten - day period, then rebounded and stabilized. In the future, most calcium carbide start - ups may remain stable, but the increase in start - up may be limited [73]. - **Caustic soda**: In August, the price center of liquid caustic soda moved up. The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased from 820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 870 yuan/ton, a 6.1% increase. The start - up of caustic soda decreased from 83.9% at the beginning of the month to 82.4%. In the future, it is expected that the short - term liquid caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.2 Monthly Price Data Changes - Futures prices: V2601 decreased from 5,176 yuan/ton at the end of July to 4,907 yuan/ton on August 29, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton; AS60E decreased from 5,469 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 269 yuan/ton [14]. - PVC spot prices: The calcium - carbide method prices in East, South, North, and Northwest China all decreased to varying degrees; the ethylene - method price in East China decreased from 5,100 yuan/ton to 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [14]. - Prices of related products in the PVC industry chain: The prices of Lancoke, ethylene, and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of calcium carbide in Shandong and 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Inner Mongolia decreased [14]. - Spreads: The V2601 - 2605 spread remained unchanged at - 293 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased from - 355 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [14]. - Profits: The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (northwest integrated chlor - alkali) decreased from 590.91 yuan/ton to 376.61 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide method (north - China purchased calcium carbide) decreased from 169 yuan/ton to 19.35 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - method (east - China purchased VCM) increased from 5.20 yuan/ton to 27.38 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Disk Review and Disk Data - **This month's market review**: In August, the PVC price first oscillated and then weakened under the increasing supply - demand pressure. By the afternoon of August 29, the price dropped to around 4,907, a 4.74% decrease from the beginning of the month [19]. - **Disk data performance**: After the main contract shifted to 01, the 01 basis in East China was around - 280; the 1 - 5 spread remained weak at around - 293. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.195 million lots, a record high. The registered warrants increased from 583,000 lots at the beginning of the month to around 841,000 lots at the end of the month [20][21]. 3.4 Spreads and Profits Regional Spreads and Quality Spreads - **Regional spreads**: The spread between East - and South - China calcium - carbide method first strengthened from around - 150 to around - 50 and then returned to the initial level; the spread between East - and North - China calcium - carbide method weakened from - 45 to around - 83 [37]. - **Ethylene - calcium - carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium - carbide spread strengthened from 305 to around 373 [37]. Profits - The profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in Northwest China (integrated with self - owned power plant) and the profit of calcium - carbide method PVC in North China (purchased calcium carbide) both decreased; the profit of ethylene - method PVC (purchased VCM) increased [14]. 3.5 Related Products in the Industrial Chain Calcium - Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Lancoke is the raw material for calcium carbide. In August, the price of Lancoke in Shaanxi increased slightly, and the start - up rate increased. In the future, the start - up of Lancoke enterprises is expected to further increase [68]. - **Calcium carbide**: Calcium carbide is the main raw material for calcium - carbide method PVC. In August, the price of calcium carbide first decreased and then increased, and the start - up rate first decreased and then stabilized. In the future, the start - up of calcium carbide may remain stable, but the increase may be limited [73]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is usually produced in conjunction with PVC. In August, the price of caustic soda increased, and the start - up rate decreased. In the future, it is expected that the short - term caustic soda price will remain strong, and the caustic soda profit will continue to make up for the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [78]. 3.6 Production Capacity Release Progress - **Put - into - production capacity**: In 2024, Xinshu Chemical's 250,000 - ton ethylene - method device was trial - produced smoothly and put into production; in 2025, Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton ethylene - method device was included in production on August 2 [93]. - **Withdrawn capacity**: In 2025, Hubei Yihua's 120,000 - ton calcium - carbide method device withdrew from production [93]. - **Planned production capacity**: In 2025, Huade Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - method device is planned to be put into production in September; Jiahua Energy's 800,000 - ton device is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [94]. 3.7 Start - Up and Maintenance - In August, PVC start - up first increased and then decreased, mainly related to its maintenance plan. The overall production in August increased due to the release of new production capacity [102]. - On August 29, the overall start - up load rate of PVC powder was 73.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The start - up load rate of calcium - carbide method PVC powder was 75.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%; the start - up load rate of ethylene - method PVC powder was 68.68% [102]. 3.8 Import and Export Volume Statistics - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with a cumulative import of 148,800 tons from January to July. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year. The cumulative import increased by 0.03% year - on - year. The import mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [125]. - In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with a cumulative export of 2,291,000 tons from January to July. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year. The cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The main export destinations were India and Vietnam [125]. 3.9 Downstream Start - Up Load - The current downstream start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, especially the start - up of pipe enterprises has deteriorated significantly. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials [9]. 3.10 Terminal Situation - In the real estate industry, from January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 12%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 19.4%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in construction area was 9.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in completion area was 16.5%. The real estate industry may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [178]. 3.11 Inventory - As of August 28, the inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total original sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 497,900 tons, an increase of 3.26% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The total expanded sample warehouse inventory in East and South China was 819,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [182]. - The sample production enterprise's PVC powder available inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [184].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a revenue increase of 11.87% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 254 million yuan, and a net profit increase of 17.54%, amounting to 73.99 million yuan [7] - The company is gradually expanding its domestic market presence, with domestic revenue showing a slight increase, and plans to increase production capacity in response to strong demand for lithium manganese cylindrical batteries [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 173 million, 203 million, and 236 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.38 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 53.30 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.77% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 0.53 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 52.42 times [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 27.58 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2,793.89 million yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 4.38 times and a one-year price range of 11.02 to 32.30 yuan [5] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 597.95 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.99% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 173.11 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.97% compared to 2024 [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42% over the forecast period [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of WTI $70.4/barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, after the emotional boost fades, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short - position allocation within the sector [2]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but is also restricted by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [4]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term, while a neutral and quick - in - quick - out strategy is suggested for the short - term [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is mainly focused on the transition from de - stocking to re - stocking. The price will be under pressure in the future [13]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the price is likely to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand [19]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has upward momentum, but the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, WTI主力原油期货 fell $0.23, or 0.34%, to $67.07; Brent主力原油期货 fell $0.14, or 0.20%, to $69.09; INE主力原油期货 rose 6.10 yuan, or 1.15%, to 538.1 yuan. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.14 million barrels to 90.97 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.81 million barrels to 101.77 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 192.74 million barrels [1]. Chemicals Methanol - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 13 yuan/ton with a basis of - 13. The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and overseas device operating rates returned to medium - high levels. The overall demand performance was weak, and the spot valuation was still high [2]. Urea - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 67 yuan/ton to 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton with a basis of + 8. The domestic operating rate declined slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports provided support [4]. Rubber - On July 22, NR and RU continued to rise strongly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. The bullish view for natural rubber RU was based on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The bearish view was due to uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and potential under - expected production cuts [8][15]. PVC - On July 22, the PVC09 contract rose 181 yuan to 5118 yuan. The overall operating rate rose, but the downstream operating rate declined. The factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak, and the price would face pressure [13]. Benzene Styrene - The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The cost - end pure benzene operating rate increased, and the supply was abundant. The port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - end three - S overall operating rate rose. The price was expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. Polyolefins - **Polyethylene**: The futures price rose. The EU's sanctions on Russia affected the market. The trade - merchant inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price rose. The Shandong refinery profit rebounded, and the supply was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [19]. Polyester - **PX**: On July 22, the PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6862 yuan. The Chinese and Asian operating rates were 81.1% and 73.6% respectively. The inventory was low, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It was recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [21][23]. - **PTA**: On July 22, the PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4780 yuan. The operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream operating rate declined. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and it was recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On July 22, the EG09 contract rose 34 yuan to 4410 yuan. The supply - end operating rate declined, and the downstream operating rate also declined. The port inventory decreased. The short - term valuation had upward momentum, but the fundamentals would turn weak [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].