人口变局下的破局之道 【开栏的话】 近年来，国务院发展研究中心积极开展国际学术交流活动，邀请诺贝尔经济学奖获得者等知名学者、国际组织负责人到中心交流研讨，以汇聚全球顶尖智 慧，共研时代重要命题。这些跨越国界、充满智慧的真知灼见，不仅能为中国发展提供镜鉴，也为世界理解中国打开了新的窗口。为将这些优秀思想成果 分享给业界及企业，中国经济时报自即日起开设"全球观·中国策"版面，聚焦前沿理论与学术观点，以深度报道架起中外思想者对话的桥梁。首期聚焦"人 口变局下的破局之道"，以全球视野探寻人口高质量发展新路径。 专访 中国人口与发展研究中心学术委员会主任 张许颖 ■中国经济时报记者 张娜 当前，中国已迈上全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程，人口发展也进入了一个新的时期，总体上看，人口增量发展转向减量发展阶段，人口发展呈现少 子化、老龄化、区域人口增减分化等明显的趋势性特征。 人口发展新常态下，如何推动人口高质量发展？中国人口与发展研究中心学术委员会主任张许颖日前在接受中国经济时报记者专访时表示，"十五五"时期 我国将进入稳定的人口减量发展阶段。经济社会发展方式和资源配置能否及时适应人口结构变化并作出"结构性"调整将是主要 ...

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's economic vitality has improved significantly in recent years, with the non-oil economy contributing over 70% to GDP [1][2] - The relationship between China and Saudi Arabia is strengthening in the context of global multipolarity and economic globalization, with cooperation expanding into various strategic sectors [1][4] Economic and Regulatory Environment - The growth of the non-oil economy is driven by private sector expansion, upgrades in key sectors, and accelerated growth in emerging industries [2] - Saudi Arabia is transitioning from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, with increased contributions from investment and consumption [2] - The unemployment rate has dropped to a historical low, supported by a young population, rising female employment, and high educational attainment [2][3] Regional and Geopolitical Context - Saudi Arabia plays a dual role as an economic engine and stabilizer in the Middle East, crucial for stabilizing international oil prices and facilitating regional cooperation [3] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards cooperation, with Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" becoming a central national strategy that transcends traditional security dependencies [4] Industry Transformation and Investment Opportunities - Under "Vision 2030," Saudi Arabia's manufacturing, consumption, and high-tech industries are accelerating, with significant progress in digital economy, green energy, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The country is attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in manufacturing, construction, and financial services, indicating a growing investment potential [5]

Group 1: Company Overview - Leshu Shih, known as the "King of Diapers in Africa," has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time after its first submission expired due to not passing the hearing within six months [1] - The company originated from the fast-moving consumer goods division of SenDa Group, which was established in 2000 and expanded into the hygiene products sector in 2009 [2] - Leshu Shih has become a multinational company focusing on emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, producing baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [2] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - According to Frost & Sullivan, Leshu Shih ranks first in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets with market shares of 20.3% and 15.6%, respectively, based on 2024 sales [2] - The company achieved sales of 4,122.7 million baby diapers and 1,634.3 million sanitary napkins in 2024 [2] - Revenue increased significantly from $320 million in 2022 to $411 million in 2023, but growth is projected to slow to $454 million in 2024, reflecting a 10.5% increase [3] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Net profit surged from $18 million in 2022 to $65 million in 2023, but the growth rate is expected to decline to 47% in 2024, reaching $95 million [3] - The gross profit margin has shown a downward trend, with margins of 23.0%, 34.9%, 35.2%, and 33.6% for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, respectively [3][4] Group 4: Strategic Insights - Leshu Shih's pricing power is influenced by brand recognition and market acceptance, allowing it to maintain or increase prices despite competition [4] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain network and local experience accumulated by SenDa Group over decades in Africa [4] - The ongoing population growth and rapid consumption upgrades in Africa are seen as significant growth drivers for the company [6][7] Group 5: Industry Trends - The African population is projected to grow from 1.45 billion in 2022 to 1.55 billion by 2024, creating a substantial demand market for companies [6] - The median age in Africa is 19.3 years, contributing to a youthful consumer base that drives demand for digital services and new consumption patterns [8] - Despite the opportunities, challenges such as weak infrastructure, policy fluctuations, and local competition remain significant hurdles for companies operating in Africa [8]

Group 1 - Guangdong Province is focusing on talent recruitment and development as a key strategy for modernizing its industrial system, with a series of meetings held throughout the year to address this issue [1][2] - The province has set ambitious goals, such as the "Million Talents Gathering in South Guangdong" initiative, which aims to attract 1 million college graduates to work and start businesses in the region [1][7] - In 2024, Guangdong's GDP is projected to reach 14 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the top economic province in China for 36 consecutive years, supported by a growing population and employment opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - The shift from a "demographic dividend" to an "engineer dividend" is underway, with a significant increase in skilled and high-skilled talent in Guangdong, which is essential for the province's industrial transformation [4][5] - As of mid-2024, Guangdong has 19.19 million skilled workers and 7.22 million high-skilled workers, reflecting a robust talent pool that supports the province's economic growth [4] - The province's modern vocational education system is the largest in the country, with a continuous increase in enrollment in vocational schools, contributing to a stable supply of skilled labor [5][6] Group 3 - The government is under pressure to attract high-quality, innovative talent that aligns with industrial development, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive talent evaluation system [6][7] - Challenges remain in quickly adjusting talent structures to meet industry needs, enhancing salary competitiveness, and providing long-term benefits to retain talent [8] - A collaborative discussion involving experts, government officials, and industry representatives is planned to explore new strategies for talent development in Guangdong [8]

Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining output growth in the face of accelerating population aging is to improve labor productivity through technological advancement, increasing labor participation rates, and expanding overseas operations [2]. Group 1: Global Population Trends - The global population is transitioning through four stages of demographic transformation, with most countries having completed industrialization or being in its middle stages, leading to a decline in the demographic dividend and an increase in aging and low birth rates [5][10]. - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 10.2%, with this figure expected to rise to 13.1% by 2035, indicating a shift towards moderate aging societies [10]. - The total fertility rate globally has decreased from a peak of 5.32 in the 1960s to 2.25 in 2024, nearing the replacement level of 2.1, with developed economies facing significant challenges related to low birth rates [11]. Group 2: China's Population Challenges - China is entering a phase of accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older expected to reach 15.6% by 2024, transitioning to a moderately aged society [16]. - The total fertility rate in China has fallen below the replacement level since 1991, reaching 1.0 in 2023, necessitating comprehensive policies to support childbearing and reduce the burden of child-rearing [18]. - The phenomenon of "aging before becoming rich" poses challenges for total demand and the social security system, as the elderly population's consumption capacity may be weaker than that of developed economies [20]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts of Population Structure Changes - The aging population is expected to exert downward pressure on potential growth rates due to a shrinking labor force, with China's labor force participation rate declining from a peak of 74.5% in 2010 to 68.3% by 2024 [31][34]. - The aging process can lead to a negative output gap, as seen in Japan, where actual economic growth has consistently lagged behind potential growth due to demographic shifts [36]. - Population aging is associated with a shift in consumption patterns, increasing demand for services such as healthcare and elder care, which may enhance service consumption's share of total consumption [39]. Group 4: Strategies to Address Aging Challenges - Improving labor productivity is crucial to counter the negative impacts of an aging population, with technology playing a key role in enhancing productivity through automation and innovation [46][51]. - Increasing labor participation rates, particularly among women, and extending working hours can help mitigate the labor supply challenges posed by an aging population [57]. - Expanding overseas operations and attracting foreign labor can serve as effective strategies to address domestic labor shortages and enhance productivity [59][60].

Group 1 - India is perceived as both undervalued and overvalued, with significant potential for development following China due to demographic dividends, market prospects, and geopolitical factors [1] - The Indian stock market reached a peak of 84,000 points on June 22, 2025, but subsequently underperformed, with the Bombay 30 Index down 3.39% year-to-date as of September 8, 2025, lagging behind other markets by nearly 20% [5][8] - The Indian rupee depreciated nearly 3% against the dollar and over 5% against the yuan in 2025, marking it as one of the weakest currencies among major economies [12] Group 2 - A significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) was reported, with net FDI dropping 96.5% in the fiscal year 2025, from $10 billion to just $353 million, a historical low [19] - Despite an overall increase in foreign investment totaling $81 billion, the outflow of $49 billion from foreign investors was noted, with a withdrawal rate approaching 20% [21] - Indian companies are increasingly investing abroad, with outbound investments reaching $29 billion in the fiscal year 2025, up from $17 billion in 2024 [23] Group 3 - The U.S. government's changing stance, including potential tariffs of 50% on Indian goods, could reduce India's GDP growth to below 6% [31] - The manufacturing sector in India has been declining, with its GDP share falling to 12.5% in 2024, the lowest since 1967 [64] - The Indian manufacturing industry faces challenges in competitiveness due to high import tariffs on intermediate goods, which inflate local production costs [92] Group 4 - The IT services sector in India is experiencing significant job losses due to the rise of AI, with estimates suggesting that around 200,000 IT jobs were lost in the past year, potentially rising to 300,000 by 2025 [112] - The Indian stock market's IT sector has been the worst performer, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the industry [113] - The relationship between population and productivity in India is shifting, with the potential for a demographic burden rather than a demographic dividend [114]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the manufacturing sectors of the United States and India, highlighting the difficulties the U.S. faces in its manufacturing revival efforts while India positions itself as a potential next global manufacturing hub after China [1][4][15]. Group 1: U.S. Manufacturing Challenges - The U.S. government has implemented policies to encourage manufacturing return, but faces significant obstacles such as high labor costs, with an average hourly wage of $28.96, making it difficult to compete with other countries [4][10]. - There is a severe talent gap in the U.S. manufacturing workforce, with an estimated need for 22 million new jobs to restore the manufacturing glory of the 1970s, while the current unemployed population stands at 7.236 million [4][10]. Group 2: India's Manufacturing Potential - India boasts a large young labor force, with a minimum daily wage of approximately 14.4 RMB, making it an attractive destination for global manufacturers [7][10]. - The "Make in India" initiative has successfully attracted multinational companies, with India producing 23.9 million iPhones in the first half of 2025, accounting for 16.7% of global production, expected to rise to 25% by 2027 [7][10]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The comparison between the U.S. and India reveals that the U.S. has advanced technology and infrastructure but suffers from high costs and a talent shortage, while India has a demographic advantage and cost benefits but struggles with infrastructure and supply chain issues [13][15]. - The global supply chain restructuring has led companies to diversify their manufacturing strategies, moving beyond the question of whether India can become the next China, as each country seeks its unique position in the global value chain [15].

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the significant decline in birth rates in China, with 2023's newborn population at approximately 902 million, down from 956 million in 2022, indicating a drop of over 50 million [3] - The number of college graduates in 2024 is projected to be 11.79 million, an increase of 210,000 from the previous year, while the newborn population continues to decrease, creating a disparity between the supply of graduates and the declining number of children [3][4] - The marriage registration numbers have halved from 1.346 million in 2013 to 683 million in 2023, indicating a direct impact of declining birth rates on marriage and housing demand, particularly for school district properties [4] Group 2 - The trend of declining birth rates is leading to a shrinking educational demand, which could result in a future shortage of students in schools, affecting the education sector's resource allocation [3][4] - The rapid decline in birth rates in China is compared to other countries like South Korea, which has a total fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023, suggesting that China's larger population base may face more severe disruptions in various industries linked to infant numbers, such as baby products and household goods [6][8] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 reached 21.3% in 2023, indicating that despite a large population, the market's capacity to absorb labor is insufficient, raising concerns about future labor supply and demand dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has inadvertently benefited Europe by providing a significant influx of Ukrainian labor, which has helped mitigate economic downturns post-pandemic [1][4][12] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the increase in foreign-born workers, particularly from Ukraine, has contributed to lower inflation rates without severely hindering economic growth [1][3] Group 1: Ukrainian Labor Impact - The influx of Ukrainian workers, estimated at around five to six million, has been crucial for various European economies, particularly in Germany, which accepted approximately two million [6][12] - Ukrainian migrants are primarily young, educated individuals willing to work for lower wages, thus filling labor shortages in sectors where local populations are reluctant to engage [10][12] - The presence of these workers has revitalized economic activities in aging European societies, as they are willing to take on jobs that locals avoid, thereby alleviating some economic pressures [12][17] Group 2: Humanitarian and Economic Dynamics - European countries initially provided extensive support to Ukrainian refugees, including housing and financial aid, but have since begun to reduce these benefits and encourage self-sufficiency among migrants [6][8] - The situation reflects a complex dynamic where Europe benefits economically from Ukrainian labor while the latter faces exploitation, working in low-wage jobs without full rights or protections [17][19] - The long-term consequences for Ukraine are severe, as the country has lost a significant portion of its young workforce, which is critical for its future economic recovery and demographic stability [14][15][19]

Demographic Trends - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and above will account for 10.2%, indicating a shift to a mildly aging society, with projections of 13.1% by 2035[2][15]. - China will officially enter a moderately aging society by 2024, with 15.6% of its population aged 65 and above, and is expected to reach 22.8% by 2035[3][25]. Challenges Faced by China - China is experiencing accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to reach 15.6% in 2024, nearing Japan's 1997 aging level[3][32]. - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.0 in 2023, one of the lowest among major economies, indicating a severe challenge of low birth rates[3][28]. Economic Implications - The aging population will lead to a decline in the labor force, exerting downward pressure on potential growth rates, which are expected to drop to around 5.0% by 2026-2030 and further to 4.5% by 2031-2035[4][61]. - Japan's experience shows that after crossing two demographic turning points, the economy faced persistent negative output gaps, with 69% of the quarters from 1993 to 2024 recording negative growth gaps[4][68]. Inflation Dynamics - Aging populations typically exert inflationary pressures; however, many developed economies have experienced deflationary trends due to mismatched supply and demand shocks[5][74]. - In China, the short-term impact of aging may suppress inflation, but long-term effects could lead to upward inflationary pressures as labor supply contracts[5][80]. Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges of an aging population, increasing labor productivity is crucial, which can be achieved through technological advancements, raising labor participation rates, and attracting foreign labor[6][81]. - China should focus on enhancing its social security system to manage the economic impacts of an aging population effectively[6][32].