玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，成交较为活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅2.39%。现货方面，下游观 望情绪浓厚，以节前补库为主。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-24 市场预期转弱，钢价震荡偏弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供应大体持稳，消费受到投机性需求和下游补库影响，刚需整体变化有限，盘面大幅升水 刺激期现拿货，带动厂库去化。玻璃盘面价格容易受到消息影响，然而基本面对于价格依旧形成压制，持续关注 宏观政策的变化及玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行，成交较为活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅2.6%。现货方面，下游交 投情绪降温，以节前刚需补库为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾依旧存在，同时伴随远兴二期点火，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升。关注纯碱 投机性需求有无减弱，或将进一步激化纯碱的供需矛盾。目前纯碱盘面升水，压制纯碱价格，后期关注新产能投 产进度和库存变化情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：宏观情绪转弱，合金震荡盘整 市场分析 硅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical futures market as a whole continues to consolidate in a volatile pattern. The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends, with some being volatile, some weakly volatile, and some expected to experience short - term fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks are the focus. The freight rate of VLCC from the Middle East to Asia has reached a two - and - a - half - year high. The持仓 of Brent crude oil has reached a record high, indicating a large divergence between long and short positions. The disruption of Ukraine to Russia's oil product exports remains unresolved [2][10]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price fluctuates below 3500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The supply tension problem has been significantly alleviated, and the pricing power of asphalt futures prices is expected to return to Shandong. The hidden inventory in South China is a concern [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price shows a weak and volatile trend. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The export of Russian fuel oil reaches a record high, and the demand expectation deteriorates [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline [13]. - **PX**: The cost support is insufficient, and the processing fee is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from downstream PTA is expected to weaken [14]. - **PTA**: New device commissioning is postponed, and maintenance is implemented, but the market boost effect is limited. The processing fee is expected to be repaired, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 yuan/ton [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price falls intraday due to the realization of macro - benefits and the decline in commodity sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [14][15][16]. - **Styrene**: The price resumes falling due to the decline in commodity sentiment. The inventory pressure is large in September - October, and the cost - end pure benzene inventory accumulation pressure may drag down the valuation. There may be a small rebound in the short term, but the amplitude is limited by inventory [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The market sentiment is under pressure due to the expectation of weakening supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. The supply and demand pattern is relatively healthy, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price follows the upstream fluctuations, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates [22][24]. - **Methanol**: The port trading volume increases slightly, and the futures price fluctuates and declines. The port inventory pressure is large, and the inland inventory pressure is limited. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [25]. - **Urea**: Under the condition of loose supply and demand, the downstream conducts price negotiations, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates in the short term [25]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)**: The maintenance rate declines, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates. The macro - support weakens, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the demand may have certain support [28]. - **PP**: The spot price is at a low level, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates and declines. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches exists [29][30]. - **PL**: It fluctuates following PP, and the price fluctuates and declines in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: It operates in a volatile manner with weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the cost moves up slightly [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decline space is limited, and the futures price fluctuates. The fundamental pressure gradually appears, but the restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [33]. 3.2 Monitoring of Energy and Chemical Indicators - **Inter - period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.01 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 0 yuan with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt quantities of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 93 yuan/ton with a change of 18 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 65010 [37]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads of different energy and chemical products have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 112 yuan/ton with a change of 34 yuan/ton [39]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.80, down 0.94%; the commodity 20 index is 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index is 2246.67, down 1.06%. The energy index on September 18, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.27%, a 5 - day increase of 2.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.64%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.86% [281][283].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The macro situation indicates that a September interest rate cut is certain, but the long - term impact on copper prices is limited. The fundamental situation shows "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and prices will at least remain volatile. The main reference range is 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption this week, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the rise of aluminum prices last week. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short - term, prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is strengthening. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - In the short - term, there is limited unilateral driving force. It is expected that the market will adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 80,755 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 264.49 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; in July, the import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.77% to 21,020 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 134.8 yuan/ton to - 1374 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM East China ADC12 price increased by 0.48% to 21,050 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 6.98% to 1,432 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.23% to 22,230 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 135.84 yuan/ton to - 2805 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%; in July, the import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% to 27.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.15% to 122,850 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; the import volume was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% to 450 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%; the import volume was 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.55% to 72,450 yuan/ton; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% to 842 US dollars/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the total inventory was 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2020, productive credit (excluding real estate and infrastructure loans) has been continuously increasing, while terminal demand credit (related to real estate and infrastructure) has been declining, indicating that credit support is more reflected on the supply side rather than the demand side [2][4][5] Group 1: Productive Credit Needs to Decline - A clear definition is established: terminal demand credit includes infrastructure loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, while productive credit includes business loans and non-real estate infrastructure loans [4][13] - Data observation shows that since 2020, the growth of productive credit has significantly outpaced that of terminal demand credit, with productive credit increasing by 4.8 trillion compared to a decrease of 4.9 trillion in terminal demand credit from 2019 to 2024 [4][13] - The excessive increase in productive credit may exacerbate supply-demand contradictions, where productive investment serves as both current demand and future supply [4][15] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index as of September 7, 2025, is at 6.93%, up 0.17 points from the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [6][17] - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement shipment rates have improved compared to last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.9%, up 9% year-on-year [7][26] - Real estate sales have shown a significant increase, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in residential sales in 67 cities during the first five days of September [8][24] Group 3: Price Trends - Prices of gold, oil, and copper have risen, with COMEX gold at $3646.3 per ounce, up 1.3%, and LME copper at $10068 per ton, up 1.2% [8][44] - Domestic commodity prices have remained stable, while overseas prices have increased, indicating a divergence in price trends [8][44] Group 4: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on government bonds has shown an upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8670%, reflecting a steepening yield curve [8][65] - The government has planned to issue new local government bonds amounting to 118.5 billion, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [8][49]

Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market has recently cooled down after a surge, with various products experiencing significant corrections as the market shifts from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1] Group 1: Black Metal Futures - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton [2][4] - Rebar prices fell from 3,400 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, while coke prices dropped from around 1,850 yuan/ton to approximately 1,560 yuan/ton [4] - The steel market remains weak, with Tangshan's steel billet price decreasing by 60 yuan to 2,950 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient terminal demand [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The black metal market has seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with the cost of steel production rising while prices fall [4] - Despite the weak demand for rebar, there are expectations of marginal improvement in demand during September, although overall steel inventory is increasing [5] - The coking coal market is also experiencing inventory accumulation, with a significant drop in auction prices and a high flow rate of unsold products [5] Group 3: Lithium Market Trends - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton in just two weeks [7] - The production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, driven by increased output from spodumene sources [8] - Market sentiment remains poor, with expectations for inventory reduction during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to continued price corrections [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with insufficient decline in production, leading to continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices. The soda ash market may see increased production after the end of summer maintenance, and with new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance [1]. - The ferromanganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in a situation of over - supply. They need to suppress production through losses, and their prices will follow the fluctuations of the sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market fell sharply yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market opened low and moved lower yesterday. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and prices have generally declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Demand remains weak with no significant improvement, high inventory has great pressure to reduce, and production decline is insufficient due to remaining production profits in non - natural gas production lines, resulting in continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices [1]. - Soda Ash: After the end of summer maintenance, production may gradually recover. With new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance. The market needs to suppress capacity release through losses, and the premium in the futures market further suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: The sentiment in the ferromanganese futures market continued to cool yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with average trading volume [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market continued to fall yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,532 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The spot market sentiment is average, and prices have been slightly adjusted downward [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: Production and sales have increased month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline, and costs have slightly decreased. However, the industry still has obvious over - supply, and production needs to be suppressed through losses [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production and sales have increased, and factory inventory has decreased, but the absolute inventory is still high, suppressing prices. The industry also has obvious over - supply and needs to suppress production through losses [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a slight increase overnight, but the overall trend appears weak, indicating that the market may have already priced in the interest rate cut expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes show a consensus among officials that maintaining the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% is appropriate, reflecting a strong agreement on the current rate level [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching previous highs with signs of overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term pullback [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices remain weak, with indications that the mid-term rebound may be nearing its end, despite seasonal demand providing some support [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 974,000 barrels, which is less than the expected decline of 1.725 million barrels, indicating a narrowing overall decline [3] - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow to an average of 650,000 barrels per day for the remainder of the year, down from an average of 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, suggesting a potential adjustment to previous significant declines, with a high likelihood of forming a downward ABC pattern [5] - The short-term outlook for copper indicates a possible rebound as prices return to a previous high transaction area, with a support level to watch at $4.44 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating that a mid-term adjustment has begun [5] - The short-term downtrend structure is nearing completion, with a critical resistance level at 42,610; failure to break this level may lead to a decline towards 41,460 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a downward trend, currently priced at 9522.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.96% [1] Inventory and Export Data - As of August 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China stands at 582,100 tons, a decrease of 35,200 tons from the previous week, representing a reduction of 5.70% [2] - Year-on-year, the inventory has decreased by 15,800 tons from 597,900 tons, a decline of 2.65% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 to 25 have increased by 10.9% compared to the same period last month [2] - Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports during the same period reached 1,065,005 tons, up 16.4% from 914,924 tons in the previous month [2] Market Analysis - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted that macroeconomic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has cooled, with attention on the U.S. July core PCE data, while the dollar index has recovered some losses [3] - The firm highlighted that Malaysian palm oil production has seen moderate growth, but export growth has slowed, potentially suppressing demand due to high prices [3] - Domestic soybean crushing rates are high, leading to increased soybean oil inventories, while both canola oil and palm oil inventories have declined [3] - Overall, the market is expected to experience limited driving forces, with palm oil likely to undergo short-term fluctuations [3] - Donghai Futures indicated that the palm oil production cycle is not characterized by significant supply-demand imbalances, and there are no immediate policy-driven consumption expectations, suggesting a potential for market consolidation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term, copper price is affected by the game of interest - rate cut expectations. The Fed's dovish stance on August 22 boosted the market's expectation of a September rate cut and copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction of copper is the main line. The supply is tight, and there is support at the bottom. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price may fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US economic data in August and the rate - cut path in the second half of the year [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The alumina futures market was weak this week due to the increase in warehouse receipts. The spot market is divided between the north and the south. The medium - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton next week, and short positions can be considered in the medium term. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures market fluctuated narrowly this week. The current supply - demand structure is under pressure, and the subsequent inventory build - up expectation is still strong. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of aluminum alloy showed marginal improvement this week. The social inventory decreased for the first time since mid - April. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand from the communication die - casting sector has rebounded. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption. The smelting profit has been repaired, and the smelting start - up rate has increased. The demand is in the seasonal off - season. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are not enough to boost the zinc price to rise continuously, but the overseas inventory drawdown provides support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronic consumption off - season. The tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered [11]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel futures market fluctuated weakly. The macro - sentiment declined, and the fundamentals of supply and demand changed little. The short - term nickel price will return to fundamental pricing, with limited downside space and restricted upside space by the medium - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market fluctuated downwards. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated sharply. The price center moved down to below 80,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals are in a tight balance, with supply contraction and stable demand. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there may be strong support in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 78,830 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 4.84% to 1,084 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,226 yuan/ton, down 74.1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 20,450 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 1.28% to 1,588 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 8.13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin was at 266,000 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The import loss was 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 120,550 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 176 dollars/ton, up 5.95% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 420 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume of stainless steel was 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80,668 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous day. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 934 dollars/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 66,099.6 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [16].