铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证， 据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究 院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 529.05 | 686.95 | 29.65↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | | -43.85↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 591.25 | -15.74↓ 长江钯 ...

从最开始的美国电价，后来是存储，再锂电，后来是光缆。 昨天中芯国际给客户发8英寸BCD约10%通知。 台积电听说2-3nm也要涨价。 涨价已经蔓延到电源芯片了。 昨天最新蔓延到了AI服务器里面的电源芯片，这些主要是BCD 产能！ 供需矛盾继续上演！再各个环节上演！ ...

近一个月以来，伦敦现货白银价格不断创新高。数据显示，自11月24日触底反弹以来，伦敦现货白银价 格涨幅超过30%。对于本轮白银飙升，笔者认为核心驱动来自以下三个方面：宏观流动性宽松、供需矛 盾加剧及投资需求拉动。 综上，近期，白银期货价格的大幅上涨，是宏观宽松预期、供应结构性短缺及投资需求共振的结果。短 期来看，白银价格已计入大量乐观预期，回调风险逐步累积。但中长期而言，美联储宽松周期未结束、 绿色能源产业需求刚性增长、供需缺口持续存在等核心逻辑未被破坏，白银价格仍具备趋势性支撑。伦 敦白银现货价格预计维持在60美元／盎司之上。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、美联储主席候选人情况 以及美国"232调查"结果及库存变化等关键变量。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更 ...

首先，宏观流动性方面，美联储年内三次降息，2026年降息预期强化。10年期美债收益率回落至 4.16%，实际利率下行推升非生息资产吸引力。美元指数跌破100关口，人民币汇率走强至7.05附近。这 进一步打开了白银上涨空间。 近一个月以来，伦敦现货白银价格不断创新高。数据显示，自11月24日触底反弹以来，伦敦现货白银价 格涨幅超过30%。对于本轮白银飙升，笔者认为核心驱动来自以下三个方面：宏观流动性宽松、供需矛 盾加剧及投资需求拉动。 最后，不容忽视的是，政策不确定性加剧市场情绪。美国对白银的"232调查"结果预计于2026年1月17日 公布。关税政策的不确定性引发市场对未来进口成本上升的担忧，刺激投资者提前囤积现货，进一步加 剧了现货紧张局面，推升短期价格。 综上，近期，白银期货价格的大幅上涨，是宏观宽松预期、供应结构性短缺及投资需求共振的结果。短 期来看，白银价格已计入大量乐观预期，回调风险逐步累积。但中长期而言，美联储宽松周期未结束、 绿色能源产业需求刚性增长、供需缺口持续存在等核心逻辑未被破坏，白银价格仍具备趋势性支撑。伦 敦白银现货价格预计维持在60美元／盎司之上。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、美联储主 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-23 市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：下游情绪谨慎，玻碱偏弱震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：现货报价坚挺，双硅盘面上行 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货整体维持上行，硅锰现货市场偏强运行，现货价格小幅上涨，6517北方市场价格5510-5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17, and a total increase of over 32% since November 24 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices has led to a decline in the gold-silver ratio, reaching a four-year low [2] - Key drivers for silver's stronger performance compared to gold include macro liquidity easing, intensified supply-demand imbalances, and increased investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2023 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 have contributed to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16%, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for several years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI growing rapidly, while mineral supply remains constrained [2] - It is projected that the silver market will face a shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, with over 50% of demand driven by industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that 72% of mined silver is sourced from copper, lead, and zinc by-products [2] Group 3: Market Behavior and Risks - The COMEX futures market is currently facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" that amplifies price increases [3] - Analysts caution about potential short-term pullback risks due to the rapid price increase, with concerns that the market may enter an overbought territory [3] - The RSI indicator for silver is above 85, indicating severe overbought conditions, and the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver have reached a record high since 2020, suggesting accumulated profit-taking pressure [3]

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美11月就业报告出炉后市场情绪转乐观，隔夜伦铝续涨0.82%；沪铝供需偏 稳，市场预期明年上半年供需偏紧，下方支撑较强，今现铝或上涨。 基本面看，沪铝供需偏稳，电解铝运行产能变化有限，铝水供应比例增幅不大，受发运影响供应未明显 增加，且市场预期明年上半年供需偏紧，下方支撑较强。需求端处于消费淡季，表现趋弱但下行幅度有 限，消费仍具有韧性。地产行业虽仍在探底，但逆周期增量政策调节下，其对铝需求的拖累将减弱；新 能源汽车、光伏等新动能领域增速或放缓，不过出口及电网、储能投资领域仍可期。现货市场，持货商 年末变现出货积极，流通略过剩，现货贴水扩大。部分看涨下游入场补货成亮点，但多数对后市信心不 足，接货交单需求减弱，供需缺口扩大，交投氛围一般。 综合来看，宏观情绪升温支撑铝价，供需矛盾不大，预计铝价高位震荡，今现铝或上涨。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 【铝期货市场】：美11月就业报告出炉后市场情绪转乐观，隔夜伦铝震荡走强，最新收盘报价2906美 元/吨，收涨23美元，涨幅0.82%，成交量16689手减少5 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-19 玻璃纯碱：宏观氛围偏暖，玻碱小幅反弹 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本 周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随淡季 到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需采购为主。 据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位震荡，且 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：钢材消 ...

金银比的快速回落，被视为本轮行情的重要参考指标。从历史均值看，当前水平并未进入极端区间，意 味着白银相对黄金仍存在想象空间。结合以往牛市经验，市场对中长期更高白银价格的讨论并非空穴来 风。 在流动性层面，降息与资产购买计划持续改善金融环境。历史经验表明，宽松周期往往有利于贵金属整 体估值抬升。OEXN表示，在流动性扩张与结构性供需矛盾并存的背景下，贵金属，尤其是白银，可能 继续成为资产配置中的重要一环。 综合来看，当前贵金属行情并非短期情绪推动，而是宏观政策、产业升级与市场结构共同作用的结果。 OEXN认为，未来价格波动仍将存在，但白银与黄金在全球资产体系中的地位，正在被重新定义。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月18日，贵金属市场正在经历一轮结构性重估，OEXN认为，这并非单一事件驱动，而是多重宏观与 产业力量长期叠加的结果。黄金逼近历史高位、白银持续刷新纪录，反映出投资者正在重新配置资产， 以应对经济放缓预期、流动性环境变化以及长期不确定性。 从表现对比来看，白银的爆发式上涨尤为突出。2025年以来接近130%的涨幅，显著超越黄金约65%的 升幅。OEXN表示，这种差异并不意味着黄金吸引力下 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].