Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of credit bond ETFs in the context of a recent market correction, highlighting that most credit bond ETFs are trading at a discount of 10-30 basis points, while the Ping An Company Bond ETF remains at a premium of 1 basis point due to consistent customer purchases during market downturns [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best drawdown control this year, maintaining a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown, with an average premium of 1 basis point over the past week [1] - The table provided shows various ETFs, their scale in billions, weekly returns, and other performance metrics, indicating that the Ping An Company Bond ETF has a scale of 229.11 billion and a weekly return of 45.17% [1] Group 2: Market Context - The article notes that the bond market is experiencing a "black swan" event around October, with heightened volatility due to tariff disputes, leading to a shift towards risk-averse trading strategies [1] - Specific market movements are detailed, including a strong stock market performance before the holiday, a weak bond market sentiment, and subsequent recovery efforts by the central bank to support liquidity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October and predicts that the domestic policy rate may be cut by 10 - 20BP in Q4 [4][13][92] Report's Core View - The consumption volume increased while the price rose slowly during the National Day holiday, and the per - capita data was under pressure, indicating a relatively low domestic consumption willingness and a continuous consumption downgrade trend. The external environment is disturbed, with rising policy risks and uncertainties [2][10][11] - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is fully bullish on the bond market, with the preferred investments being 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [4][13][92] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 890 million, an increase of 120 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The total domestic tourism consumption was 809.01 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase. The per - capita consumption decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 911 yuan. The number of inbound and outbound trips of mainland residents was 9.165 million, a 9.6% increase [14] - On October 1, 2025 (EDT), the U.S. federal government announced a "shutdown". On October 10 (EDT), Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting from November 1, 2025. As of October 11 (09:30 Beijing time), the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October reached 98.3% [21] - In September 2025, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.1% (continuing in the contraction range, up 0.4pct from the previous month), and the service PMI dropped to the critical point of 50.0% (down 2.0pct from the previous month) [21] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of September 30, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 42.8% and 57.3% year - on - year respectively. The total box office during the National Day in 2025 was 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 900 million and 270 million yuan compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively. As of September 26, the total retail volume and sales of three major household appliances decreased by 16.9% and 27.6% year - on - year respectively [22][24] 2.2 Transportation - As of October 5, the weekly container throughput of ports increased by 12.0% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 12.4% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 9.7% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days decreased by 7.4% year - on - year [28][36][39] 2.3开工率 - As of October 9, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.2pct year - on - year, the asphalt average operating rate increased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 2.9pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 2.2pct year - on - year. As of October 11, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 75.1% [44][47] 2.4 Real Estate - As of October 10, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 34.7% year - on - year. As of October 3, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities increased by 104.2% year - on - year [51][54] 2.5 Prices - As of October 11, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.0% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 14.6% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [58][60][66] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On October 11, overnight Shibor and various short - term interest rates generally declined. Most treasury bond yields declined, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields at 1.37%/1.58%/1.82%/2.23% respectively, down 1.2BP/4.3BP/5.6BP/up 1.5BP compared to September 28. The yields of China Development Bank bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also showed certain changes. As of October 10, the ten - year treasury bond yields of the U.S., Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, down 15BP/up 3BP/down 7BP/down 7BP compared to September 26. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on October 10 decreased by 70/21 pips compared to September 25 [69][73][80] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of October 10, the estimated median durations of medium - and long - term interest rate and credit bond funds were about 4.5 years and 2.6 years respectively, down about 0.03 years and 0.3 years compared to September 26 [4][86][87] 5. Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% [4][13][92]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on 3-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds (二永) following recent market events, suggesting that the certainty of returns in these assets is higher compared to others [4][6][10] - The report notes that the bond market has shown slight recovery but remains in a downward channel, influenced by weak economic data and market sentiment [4][5] - It highlights the potential impact of the central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond purchases and new regulations on public fund fees, which could dictate market pricing logic [4][6][10] Group 2 - The report categorizes investment strategies based on risk preferences, recommending specific bonds for low, medium, and high-risk investors, with a focus on the yield advantages of certain bonds over others [4][6][10] - It discusses the current state of the credit bond market, indicating a shift towards net buying by funds post-holiday, while insurance and other products have reduced their allocation [12][13] - The report also addresses external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, which could introduce volatility into the bond market [10][11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of government bonds (both national and local) in China has seen significant growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total issuance of 20.48 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.10% for national bonds and 27.60% for local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - A total of 1,971 government bonds were issued in the first three quarters of 2025, comprising 155 national bonds and 1,816 local bonds [2]. - The total issuance scale for government bonds reached 20.48 trillion yuan, with national bonds at 11.95 trillion yuan and local bonds at 8.53 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The number of national bonds issued increased from 149 in the same period of 2024 to 155 in 2025, while local bonds rose from 1,583 to 1,816 [2]. Group 2: Local Bond Issuance - In the third quarter of 2025, 738 local bonds were issued, totaling 30,779 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1,169 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4,299 billion yuan [8]. - The average weighted issuance rate for local bonds in the third quarter was 1.9988%, which is higher than the previous quarter but lower than the same period last year [10]. - The average issuance term for local bonds increased to 14.60 years from 13.27 years in the previous year [12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Rates - The average yield on national bonds has generally increased over the first three quarters, with the third quarter average yield at 1.5667% [6]. - The yield on 10-year national bonds decreased by 2.65 basis points to 1.86% as of September 30, 2025, compared to a year-on-year drop of 29.13 basis points [16]. - The trading volume of national bonds in the first three quarters was 79.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 24 trillion yuan year-on-year [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may face disturbances from fundamental factors and institutional behaviors, but there are opportunities for gradual positioning towards the end of the year [20]. - Expectations for a significant decrease in government bond issuance in October 2025, with a projected total issuance of 19,071 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase but a decrease in net financing [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in August 2025 from multiple perspectives, including the central bank's balance sheet and custody volume, institutional leverage, institutional behavior by type, and bond types. It presents the latest trends in central bank monetary policy and institutional investment strategies, and predicts short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [8]. - In the short term, due to the approaching of the end - of - September to early - October period to achieve the annual 5% growth target, with the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and cross - quarter capital fluctuations, institutional sentiment remains cautious, and there may be redemption disturbances. The remaining issuance quota of bonds is relatively low, indicating that there is still room for fiscal stimulus [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 August Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **Balance Sheet Changes**: In August 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 45.9 trillion yuan to 46.3 trillion yuan. On the asset side, the main increase was in "claims on other depository corporations", and the main decrease was in "claims on other financial corporations". On the liability side, the main increase was in "government deposits", and the main decrease was in "deposits of other depository corporations" [14]. - **Impact on Custody Volume**: The net investment of the central bank's innovative tools in August was 2608 billion yuan, which was close to the monthly increase of 2754 billion yuan in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account. The main incremental bond types were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [32]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio - In August, the overall capital market was stable, but the bond market was in a head - wind period. The average monthly leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%. The stock - bond seesaw effect continued to suppress the bond market performance, and institutional leverage willingness weakened. The average monthly trading volume of pledged repurchase remained at 7.6 trillion yuan [37]. 3.3 By Institution Type - **Banks**: Large banks reduced their allocation of 7 - 15y local government bonds and extended the maturity of their Treasury bond purchases. Rural commercial banks' entry - point expectations rose, and their secondary - market trading demand weakened [52][54]. - **Insurance**: Since August, under the influence of "rush to stop sales", insurance companies have increased their bond purchases at high prices, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and Treasury bonds [67]. - **General Funds**: In August, the custody volume of general funds decreased again this year, mainly reducing their holdings of certificates of deposit and commercial bank financial bonds. Fund redemptions occurred repeatedly, while bank wealth management's bond allocation was in line with the seasonal level [76][80][84]. - **Foreign Investors**: The decline in the comprehensive return of foreign investors' investment in certificates of deposit narrowed, and the net outflow speed slowed down. They mainly reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [93]. 3.4 By Bond Type - In August, the incremental increase in the bond market's custody volume decreased month - on - month. Interest - rate bonds were the main supporting factor, with increments of 8261 billion yuan, 5172 billion yuan, and 4616 billion yuan for Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds respectively. Certificates of deposit were the main reduction item, with a reduction of 3556 billion yuan [94].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

Group 1 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 356.5 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 550 million yuan, while the benchmark market-making ETF decreased by 40 million yuan and the sci-tech bond ETF increased by 210 million yuan [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.7 years, with an overall transaction amount of 95.3 billion yuan and an average single transaction amount of 3.82 million yuan [1] - The median yield is 1.95%, and the median discount rate is -10.6 basis points, with the benchmark market-making at -34.3 basis points and the sci-tech bond at -4.1 basis points [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has adopted a clear easing stance, adjusting the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which may lower the execution rate to around 1.45% [1] - The upcoming listing of 14 new sci-tech bond ETF products is expected to enhance market liquidity and investment opportunities [1] - The recent performance of Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) shows a controlled net value decline of only 10 basis points, indicating stability and relative advantages in valuation [2]

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has seen a price increase of 0.05%, with the latest price at 107.82 yuan as of September 22, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the benchmark government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 103.45% and a transaction value of 5.524 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction value for the benchmark government bond ETF was 13.447 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital inflow, the benchmark government bond ETF has attracted a total of 600 million yuan over the last 15 trading days, bringing its latest scale to 5.336 billion yuan [2] - The highest monthly return since inception for the benchmark government bond ETF was 2.67%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 9 months and a maximum gain of 6.94% [2] - The annual profit percentage for the benchmark government bond ETF stands at 100%, with a monthly profit probability of 71.78% and a historical one-year holding profit probability of 100% [2] Group 3 - The maximum drawdown for the benchmark government bond ETF over the past six months was 2.11%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.26% [4] - The management fee for the benchmark government bond ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 4 - The tracking error for the benchmark government bond ETF over the past month was 0.021% [5] - The current bond market fundamentals are considered to be in a "favorable period," with potential for further upward deviation in interest rates and fundamentals [5] - Although credit growth and price levels are still at a bottom reversal stage, the interest rate downtrend inflection point is expected to take time, with a potential recovery range of within 10 basis points [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for interest rates to continue declining, with a focus on the performance of 10-year government bonds expected to range between 1.85% and 1.9% [1] - It highlights specific bonds to consider for trading, including 250203 and 250208, while emphasizing the importance of liquidity in bond selection [1] - The article notes that the current spread between 10-year government bonds (250210-250215) is around 1.5 basis points, with expectations for 250215 to remain a key bond in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the 30-year government bond (25T6) is currently trading 3-4 basis points higher than 25T5 and 9-10 basis points higher than 25T2, indicating its volatility during market adjustments [2] - It suggests that if 25T6 becomes the main bond, the spread compared to 25T2 could narrow to 3-6 basis points under optimistic conditions [2] - The article provides a detailed table of various bond ETFs, highlighting their performance metrics, including net asset values and trading volumes, with a focus on the stability of the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) [2]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the bond market in September may outperform the stock market, with seasonal patterns not being directly applicable [1] - Recent adjustments in the bond market have been observed, but the performance in June was strong, indicating a potential similar trend in September [1] - With the decline in banks' funding costs, government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for banks' proprietary trading [1] Group 2 - The current yield spread between bonds and funding costs is expected to widen as costs decrease further [1] - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with concerns that a bull market may not be desirable [1] - The article highlights that small and medium-sized stocks are generally overvalued with low growth potential, indicating a bubble [1] Group 3 - The recent redemption of fixed income products has had a temporary impact on the bond market [1] - The bond market is returning to a pricing model based on fundamentals and liquidity [1] - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown the least discount in trading over the past week, with a net inflow of 0.52 billion [2]