Group 1 - The bond market showed strong performance last week, primarily due to the central bank's resumption of bond purchases, which boosted market confidence [1] - This week, aside from potential impacts from new fund redemption regulations, most negative factors have been exhausted, allowing for a more optimistic outlook for the bond market [1] - Historical data indicates a higher probability of bond market declines in November, with a core focus on the potential restart of interest rate cuts, suggesting a strategy of extending duration [1] Group 2 - As of November 3, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) rose by 0.03%, marking its eighth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 106.56 yuan and a year-to-date increase of 1.39% [4] - The company bond ETF's liquidity showed a turnover rate of 8.41% with a transaction volume of 1.972 billion yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 2.189 billion yuan over the past month [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 23.453 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year, with the latest share count at 220 million, also a six-month high [4] Group 3 - Over the past five years, the net value of the company bond ETF has increased by 13.34%, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% and a longest consecutive increase of nine months [5] - The company bond ETF has a historical annual profit percentage of 83.33% and a monthly profit probability of 78.94%, with a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [5] - As of October 31, 2025, the company bond ETF's one-month Sharpe ratio was 1.81, and the maximum drawdown over the past six months was 0.28% [5] Group 4 - The company bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index, which reflects the trends in the RMB bond market [6] - The index is based on AAA-rated corporate bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and is segmented by implied ratings, serving as a benchmark for investment performance in medium to high-grade corporate bonds [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a downward trend in yields, contrasting with the equity market's pullback, leading to a shift in investment strategies among funds towards shorter durations and a focus on risk management [2][6]. Market Performance - During the week of October 27 to November 3, bond yields declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling approximately 5 basis points to 1.8% and the 1-year bond yield decreasing about 9 basis points to 1.38% [2]. - The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds recorded a return of 0.26%, while short-term bond funds achieved 0.11% [2]. Fund Duration Analysis - The median duration of pure bond funds decreased from 2.70 years in Q2 to 2.00 years in Q3, indicating a shift towards shorter duration investments [7]. - The divergence in duration among funds has increased, suggesting differing views among institutions regarding future market conditions [8]. Investment Strategy Shifts - Due to the declining investment attractiveness of the bond market, banks are transitioning from a passive allocation strategy to active management, focusing on trading capabilities and expanding non-interest income [6]. - Analysts predict that with the central bank's resumption of government bond purchases and increased liquidity, the previously pessimistic sentiment in the bond market is beginning to recover [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face less pressure from the equity market due to a temporary easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially creating a favorable environment for bond investments [8]. - The fourth quarter may present economic challenges, but a continued loose monetary environment could provide key opportunities for bond allocation as yields rise [8].

Core Insights - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income at 21.658 billion yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.694 billion yuan, up 3.74% year-on-year [2] - The bank's non-interest income, which had previously driven growth, saw a significant decline of 21% year-on-year, impacting overall revenue growth [2][6] - The bank's investment income decreased by 8% year-on-year to 3.495 billion yuan, with losses from fair value changes expanding to 807 million yuan [5][6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved operating income of 21.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.694 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.74% [2] - Non-interest net income for the bank was 3.808 billion yuan, down 21% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline observed: Q1 down 12%, Q2 down 20%, and Q3 down 34% [6] Non-Interest Income Analysis - The decline in non-interest income is attributed to a downturn in the bond market, with the bank's investment income falling by 8% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's bond investments amounted to 514.5 billion yuan, representing 82% of its total financial investments, but faced challenges in the third quarter due to rising bond yields [4] - The bank's fair value losses increased significantly, indicating a challenging investment environment [5][6] Management and Governance - The bank's new chairman, Liu Xiaojun, has not yet received regulatory approval for his position, with the current president, Sui Jun, acting as chairman for over a year [7][8] - Liu Xiaojun has a strong background in finance, having held various positions in banking and trust companies prior to his current role [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed significant recovery on October 17, with all major government bond futures rising, indicating a potential rebound from earlier market overextensions [1][2]. Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.74% to close at 115.870, marking a one-month high; the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.12% and 0.07%, respectively [2]. - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond decreased by 2.9 basis points to 1.9010%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 2.07% [2]. Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,648 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,442 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.318% [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the recent decline in deposit rates has led to a "deposit migration" effect, posing challenges for institutional investors facing asset scarcity [6]. - Huazhong Securities indicated that recent economic data suggests a weak recovery phase, which remains favorable for the bond market [6][7]. Yield Spread Analysis - Guoxin Securities observed that the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds has widened again, influenced by macroeconomic changes and tax policy adjustments [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the bond market in Q4 2025 is expected to be better than that in Q3. It is recommended to actively allocate when the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond is above 1.75%, and the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond in Q4 is expected to decline to around 1.7% [10][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the fundamentals price the bond market? - The bond market is sensitive to fundamentals. The decline in bond yields is a marginal change that requires continuous marginal weakening of fundamentals. Although the current economic growth rate is still at a relatively low level, there was no obvious weakening in the first three quarters of 2025, making it difficult to bring marginal long - buying power to the bond market [10][16]. - The bond yield decline space was significantly overdrawn in Q4 2024. From 2018 - 2023, the average annual decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield was only about 20bps, while in 2024, it declined by 88bps, the highest since 2015. Especially after the monetary policy proposed "moderate easing" on December 9, 2024, the bond yield declined significantly, overdrawn the bond market space in 2025 [10][16]. - The pricing influence of fundamentals on the bond market is expected to gradually increase in Q4. Due to the base effect, the year - on - year GDP growth rate in Q4 is expected to slow down to around 4.5% from about 5% in Q3, and the adjustment of the bond market in Q3 has basically repaired the previous overdrawn phenomenon [19]. 3.2 How does the bond market react to repeated trade frictions? - Before the end of October, trade frictions will suppress market risk sentiment and increase the valuation of safe - haven assets, providing a favorable environment for the bond market. It will take until the end of October to early November to prove whether it is a "TACO transaction" [10][24]. - Sino - US trade frictions benefit the bond market through the equity market and the expectation of monetary easing. The equity market is a high - odds variable for the bond market. If the equity market adjusts, it will benefit the bond market. External shocks to the capital market increase the probability of further monetary easing, as shown by the "double - cut" in May after the trade friction in April this year [10][25]. 3.3 What if the Q4 fund sales fee rate new regulations are implemented? - The redemption disturbance caused by the sales fee rate is different from traditional disturbances. The full inclusion of the fund redemption fee in the fund property will not lead to the overall loss of investors, so it will not cause a systematic upward shift in the bond market curve [10][32]. - The redemption feedback caused by the change in the fund sales fee rate does not involve the re - pricing of stocks and bonds. After banks redeem short - term bond funds, funds can flow back to the bond market through money market funds and bond ETFs in a short time. Therefore, the adjustment range and time of the bond market caused by the redemption feedback are expected to be less than before [10][35].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of credit bond ETFs in the context of a recent market correction, highlighting that most credit bond ETFs are trading at a discount of 10-30 basis points, while the Ping An Company Bond ETF remains at a premium of 1 basis point due to consistent customer purchases during market downturns [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best drawdown control this year, maintaining a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown, with an average premium of 1 basis point over the past week [1] - The table provided shows various ETFs, their scale in billions, weekly returns, and other performance metrics, indicating that the Ping An Company Bond ETF has a scale of 229.11 billion and a weekly return of 45.17% [1] Group 2: Market Context - The article notes that the bond market is experiencing a "black swan" event around October, with heightened volatility due to tariff disputes, leading to a shift towards risk-averse trading strategies [1] - Specific market movements are detailed, including a strong stock market performance before the holiday, a weak bond market sentiment, and subsequent recovery efforts by the central bank to support liquidity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October and predicts that the domestic policy rate may be cut by 10 - 20BP in Q4 [4][13][92] Report's Core View - The consumption volume increased while the price rose slowly during the National Day holiday, and the per - capita data was under pressure, indicating a relatively low domestic consumption willingness and a continuous consumption downgrade trend. The external environment is disturbed, with rising policy risks and uncertainties [2][10][11] - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is fully bullish on the bond market, with the preferred investments being 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [4][13][92] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 890 million, an increase of 120 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The total domestic tourism consumption was 809.01 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase. The per - capita consumption decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 911 yuan. The number of inbound and outbound trips of mainland residents was 9.165 million, a 9.6% increase [14] - On October 1, 2025 (EDT), the U.S. federal government announced a "shutdown". On October 10 (EDT), Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting from November 1, 2025. As of October 11 (09:30 Beijing time), the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October reached 98.3% [21] - In September 2025, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.1% (continuing in the contraction range, up 0.4pct from the previous month), and the service PMI dropped to the critical point of 50.0% (down 2.0pct from the previous month) [21] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of September 30, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 42.8% and 57.3% year - on - year respectively. The total box office during the National Day in 2025 was 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 900 million and 270 million yuan compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively. As of September 26, the total retail volume and sales of three major household appliances decreased by 16.9% and 27.6% year - on - year respectively [22][24] 2.2 Transportation - As of October 5, the weekly container throughput of ports increased by 12.0% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 12.4% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 9.7% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days decreased by 7.4% year - on - year [28][36][39] 2.3开工率 - As of October 9, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.2pct year - on - year, the asphalt average operating rate increased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 2.9pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 2.2pct year - on - year. As of October 11, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 75.1% [44][47] 2.4 Real Estate - As of October 10, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 34.7% year - on - year. As of October 3, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities increased by 104.2% year - on - year [51][54] 2.5 Prices - As of October 11, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.0% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 14.6% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [58][60][66] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On October 11, overnight Shibor and various short - term interest rates generally declined. Most treasury bond yields declined, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields at 1.37%/1.58%/1.82%/2.23% respectively, down 1.2BP/4.3BP/5.6BP/up 1.5BP compared to September 28. The yields of China Development Bank bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also showed certain changes. As of October 10, the ten - year treasury bond yields of the U.S., Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, down 15BP/up 3BP/down 7BP/down 7BP compared to September 26. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on October 10 decreased by 70/21 pips compared to September 25 [69][73][80] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of October 10, the estimated median durations of medium - and long - term interest rate and credit bond funds were about 4.5 years and 2.6 years respectively, down about 0.03 years and 0.3 years compared to September 26 [4][86][87] 5. Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% [4][13][92]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on 3-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds (二永) following recent market events, suggesting that the certainty of returns in these assets is higher compared to others [4][6][10] - The report notes that the bond market has shown slight recovery but remains in a downward channel, influenced by weak economic data and market sentiment [4][5] - It highlights the potential impact of the central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond purchases and new regulations on public fund fees, which could dictate market pricing logic [4][6][10] Group 2 - The report categorizes investment strategies based on risk preferences, recommending specific bonds for low, medium, and high-risk investors, with a focus on the yield advantages of certain bonds over others [4][6][10] - It discusses the current state of the credit bond market, indicating a shift towards net buying by funds post-holiday, while insurance and other products have reduced their allocation [12][13] - The report also addresses external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, which could introduce volatility into the bond market [10][11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of government bonds (both national and local) in China has seen significant growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total issuance of 20.48 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.10% for national bonds and 27.60% for local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - A total of 1,971 government bonds were issued in the first three quarters of 2025, comprising 155 national bonds and 1,816 local bonds [2]. - The total issuance scale for government bonds reached 20.48 trillion yuan, with national bonds at 11.95 trillion yuan and local bonds at 8.53 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The number of national bonds issued increased from 149 in the same period of 2024 to 155 in 2025, while local bonds rose from 1,583 to 1,816 [2]. Group 2: Local Bond Issuance - In the third quarter of 2025, 738 local bonds were issued, totaling 30,779 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1,169 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4,299 billion yuan [8]. - The average weighted issuance rate for local bonds in the third quarter was 1.9988%, which is higher than the previous quarter but lower than the same period last year [10]. - The average issuance term for local bonds increased to 14.60 years from 13.27 years in the previous year [12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Rates - The average yield on national bonds has generally increased over the first three quarters, with the third quarter average yield at 1.5667% [6]. - The yield on 10-year national bonds decreased by 2.65 basis points to 1.86% as of September 30, 2025, compared to a year-on-year drop of 29.13 basis points [16]. - The trading volume of national bonds in the first three quarters was 79.65 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 24 trillion yuan year-on-year [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the bond market may face disturbances from fundamental factors and institutional behaviors, but there are opportunities for gradual positioning towards the end of the year [20]. - Expectations for a significant decrease in government bond issuance in October 2025, with a projected total issuance of 19,071 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase but a decrease in net financing [21].