Group 1: Company Bond ETF - As of July 8, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) is experiencing a stalemate with the latest price at 106.27 yuan, having accumulated a rise of 1.11% year-to-date as of July 7, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 22.027 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly one year [1] - The Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 127 million yuan, totaling 171 million yuan, resulting in an average daily net inflow of 42.75 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF - As of July 8, 2025, the National Bond ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) is also in a stalemate, with the latest price at 117.72 yuan, having increased by 5.43% over the past year [4] - The scale of the National Bond ETF for 5 to 10 years reached 1.498 billion yuan, achieving a new high in nearly three months [4] - The National Development Bond ETF (159651) rose by 0.03% to a latest price of 106.31 yuan, with a net value increase of 4.66% over the past two years [4] Group 3: Market Insights - Recent market activity shows a significant reduction in trading volume for both stocks and bonds, with no substantial negative factors identified in the bond market over the past month [4] - The current high duration and high position of funds are deemed reasonable as long as the fundamentals continue to decline, the central bank signals ongoing easing, and policy space remains limited [5] - The issuance plans for 20-year and 30-year bonds, announced at the end of the trading day, may have a counteracting effect on the corresponding interest rates, indicating that the market still possesses resilience [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing increased volatility in the first half of 2025, leading to underperformance of pure bond funds, and the investment opportunities in the second half depend on various factors including monetary policy and market conditions [1][2] - In the first half of the year, bond yields exhibited a rapid up and down pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.6% to 1.9% and then falling back to around 1.65% due to various monetary policy adjustments [2] - The volatility in the bond market has been significantly higher than in previous years, with the 10-year government bond yield experiencing fluctuations exceeding 30 basis points, making it challenging for pure bond funds to generate capital gains [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that systemic risks in the bond market are low, but attention should be paid to potential adjustments in fiscal and regulatory policies, as well as risks associated with high leverage and duration in non-bank sectors [3] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, providing no basis for rising bond yields, and the demand for credit bonds is supported by the continuous growth of the broad asset management scale [3] - Historical data indicates that absolute yields and credit spreads are not extreme, making credit bonds relatively attractive in terms of cost-performance [3] Group 3 - Investment strategies for the second half should focus on a barbell strategy, which balances coupon income and capital gains, allowing for better management of uncertainties in the market [4][5] - In a low interest rate and low spread environment, it is crucial to switch to high-grade short-duration bonds to mitigate potential market volatility risks [4] - The investment strategy should be adjusted to maintain a balance between liquidity, returns, and drawdown control, avoiding both aggressive and overly conservative approaches [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to stabilize and improve in the second half of the year, likely presenting a "low interest rate, medium volatility" oscillating pattern [2][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In the first half of 2025, the bond market experienced significant volatility, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9% [2]. - The average net asset value growth rate of medium- and long-term bond funds in the first half of the year was 0.73%, marking the lowest semi-annual performance in nearly a decade and a half [2]. - The bond market's absolute interest rates are currently at historically low levels, which has reduced the buffer effect of coupon income against market fluctuations compared to previous years [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a low interest rate environment, the strategy for pure bond funds has become constrained, with limited opportunities for differentiation due to the compression of credit spreads and term spreads [4][5]. - The investment strategy for the second half of the year should focus on the role of coupon income, with a primary emphasis on coupon strategies and supplementary wave trading [16]. - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing between high liquidity assets and medium to low duration assets to secure stable coupon income while allowing for wave trading opportunities [17]. Group 3: Focus on Specific Bond Types - There is a focus on investment opportunities in technology innovation bonds (科创债) and local government bonds (地方债) due to their higher yield compared to government bonds and their alignment with high-quality development goals [12][13]. - Credit bonds are also highlighted for their long-term allocation logic, especially in the context of recent deposit rate cuts enhancing their relative value [12][13]. Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - The bond market is currently facing multiple risks, including potential policy shifts that could lead to capital diversion from the bond market, as well as geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [19][20]. - The market's response to economic recovery and potential tightening of monetary policy could lead to upward pressure on bond yields if expectations are not met [19][20]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach to short-term fluctuations in bond market net values and focus on long-term allocation value [23][24]. - Diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, with recommendations to balance different maturity bond funds to meet liquidity needs while mitigating the impact of individual asset volatility [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with active trading and a significant increase in liquidity observed in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of July 3, 2025, the latest quote for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 125.01 yuan, indicating a stable trading environment [1]. - The ETF has a turnover rate of 21.38% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 3.46 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF over the past week is 6.26 billion yuan, suggesting sustained interest from investors [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Outlook - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 16.189 billion yuan, indicating growth in assets under management [2]. - A report from CITIC Securities anticipates that equity assets will maintain high activity levels in July, despite uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [2]. - The report suggests that the market is likely to maintain a generally upward trend, with convertible bond assets losing some of their allocation value as risk appetite for equity assets increases [2]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - As of May 2025, the one-year Treasury yield has decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.46%, while the ten-year Treasury yield has increased by 4.7 basis points to 1.67% [2]. - The trend indicates a potential improvement in liquidity starting from June, with long-term interest rates likely to break below previous lows, suggesting a positive outlook for bond market investments [2]. Group 4: Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year Treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years [3]. - This index serves as a performance benchmark for investments in this category of bonds, excluding special treasury bonds [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the bond market, specifically focusing on the insurance subordinated debt market, credit bonds, and data center REITs [1][5][11]. Key Insights and Arguments Bond Market Outlook - The interest rate bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in 2025, with limited upward potential due to low likelihood of policy tightening by the central bank [1][2]. - Credit spreads are anticipated to compress further, prompting institutions to seek lower-rated credits for higher yields [3][5]. Insurance Subordinated Debt Market - The insurance subordinated debt market is relatively small, with a total scale of approximately 500 billion, compared to 6-7 trillion for bank-related instruments [5][6]. - The investment structure is shifting towards market-oriented institutions, which may enhance trading volume and market recognition [6]. - Risk assessments should focus on state-owned large insurance companies due to the significant spread loss risks faced by life insurance companies [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term insurance subordinated debt with yields above 2.5% is recommended, particularly products from Huatai Life and Sunshine Life [9]. - Investors are advised to be cautious with subordinated debt from smaller insurance companies due to potential non-redemption risks [7][8]. City Investment Bonds - City investment bonds offer high yields without exchange rate risks, with offshore yields reaching 5-6%, significantly higher than the domestic 2.5% [10]. - Investors with QD quotas are encouraged to purchase these bonds through Hong Kong for better value [10]. Data Center REITs - Data center REITs have shown strong performance since 2024, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion and a 15% increase in the index this year [11][12]. - These REITs are characterized by high customer stickiness, long lease terms, and stable revenue, making them attractive investments [13][14]. - The operational model of data center REITs differs significantly from traditional property REITs, focusing on technology and operational capabilities [16]. Investment Strategy for Data Center REITs - Investors are encouraged to participate in the issuance of newly approved data center REITs due to their strong underlying assets and potential for initial premium returns [17][18]. - The unique characteristics of data center REITs, including their dual nature of real estate and technology, position them favorably in the market [18]. Additional Important Points - The shift in investor structure towards more market-oriented institutions in the insurance subordinated debt market could lead to increased trading activity and recognition [6]. - The potential risks associated with smaller insurance companies' subordinated debt require careful monitoring of their performance and redemption practices [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide a rating for the bond market industry, but it suggests a cautious and neutral stance towards the bond market in 2025, with a focus on specific investment opportunities such as high - yielding credit bonds [122] Core Viewpoints - The current economic operation is in a neutral range. The US may further lower tariffs on China, and the economy is expected to stabilize. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. However, due to over - capacity, PPI remains under pressure, and with negative real estate investment, the prices of the black series are relatively low. The bond market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bear or bull market in the short term [2][122] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - news - On June 6, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, aiming to address the peak of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in June and release a signal of medium - term liquidity easing [11] - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.29 trillion, achieving a "five - consecutive increase" but with a narrowing growth rate. The central bank's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces, with continuous increases for 7 months [10][12] - In May, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, indicating weak global economic recovery momentum. Different regions showed varying trends, with Asia in the expansion range and the US, Europe, and Africa facing challenges [12] - On June 3 (Eastern Time), the US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [14] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of May 31, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 6.1% and 9.7% year - on - year respectively. As of June 6, the seven - day movie box office increased by 140.3% month - on - month and 39.1% year - on - year [16][22] 2.2 Transportation - As of June 1, the weekly container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, while the CCFI composite index increased by 3.3%. The BDI index increased by 13.3%. However, civil aviation flights, postal express delivery, railway freight, and highway truck traffic all showed declines [30][34][39] 2.3开工率 - As of June 4, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rates of the petrochemical industry chain, including soda ash, PVC, PX, and PTA, showed an upward trend [53][57] 2.4 Real Estate - As of June 6, the transaction area and volume of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. The transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities decreased by 13.6% month - on - month, and the listing volume and price of second - hand housing also declined [67][72] 2.5 Prices - Agricultural products were stable, with slight increases in the prices of vegetables and fruits. Industrial products continued to be under pressure, with declines in the prices of steel, iron ore, glass, and energy products such as thermal coal and crude oil [79][87][89] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On June 6, most money market rates and bond yields declined. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 6.0/4.5/3.1/3.8 BP respectively compared to May 29. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 62/69 pips respectively [105][113] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of June 8, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies dropped to 1.58%, the lowest level this year. The duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds has been increasing, while that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds has been relatively stable [114][116][117] 5. Investment Recommendations - The bond market is in a volatile state with limited opportunities. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. For the 10 - year treasury bond, when the yield reaches the upper limit of the 1.6% - 1.8% range, extend the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration. Also, pay attention to 5 - year credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Additionally, it is suggested to focus on Hong Kong stocks in the financial sector, especially the valuation restoration potential of Hong Kong banks [122][123]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China may further implement measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to ensure sufficient liquidity for economic recovery in the second half of the year [1] - On June 6, the central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the overall loose funding environment, with market expectations for the resumption of central bank bond trading operations [1] Group 2 - Global central banks are generally in a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for continued downward pressure on bond yields throughout the year [2] - China's fiscal policy is expected to remain strong, with future policy easing likely relying more on monetary policy [2] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen significant net inflows, exceeding 2.7 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has consistently achieved annual profits since 2018, making it a valuable asset allocation tool across market cycles [3] - The fund has a historical performance record with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. If no unexpected events occur, the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to trade in a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.8% by the end of the year, and the bond market may lack trending opportunities [2]. - The current economic operation is in a neutral range. Exports are resilient, consumption has improved year - on - year, but investment remains sluggish. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. However, due to over - capacity, PPI is still under pressure, and combined with negative real estate investment and international energy prices, black - series prices are particularly low. The bond market is not likely to enter a major bear market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro News - The central bank did not conduct open - market Treasury bond trading operations in May. In May, it carried out 700 billion yuan of repurchase operations, but due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan of existing operations, it achieved a net liquidity withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [11]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of consumer loans was 21.02 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and an increase of 32.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. The balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [12]. - From January to April this year, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than in the first quarter. The revenues of large - scale light - industry enterprises reached 7.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the profits were 419.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [12][13]. - The US tariff policy is in a judicial tug - of - war. The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% for the third consecutive time, and may face "difficult trade - offs" in the future [17]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data: Strong Consumption, Stable Production, and Weak Prices 3.2.1 Consumption - As of May 25, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars was 60,800, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 75,900, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% [15]. - As of May 23, the weekly retail volumes of refrigerators/freezers, air conditioners, and washing machines were 741,400, 1.6127 million, and 655,700 units respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.1%, + 65.6%, and - 20.5%. The weekly retail revenues were 1.892 billion yuan, 3.901 billion yuan, and 1.246 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month changes of + 2.6%, + 70.4%, and - 44.0% [23]. - As of June 1, the total movie box office in the past seven days was 480 million yuan, a month - on - month increase of 95.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of May 25, the weekly container throughput of ports was 7 million TEUs, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. The CCFI composite index on May 30 was 1118, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% [29]. - The Baltic Dry Index on May 30 was 1418, with a weekly average of 1342, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The Baidu Migration Index on June 1 was 674, with a weekly average of 600, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [33]. - As of May 25, the weekly number of civil aviation flights was 1.21 million, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%. The average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities on May 31 was 34.666 million person - times, and the weekly average was 39.258 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [37]. - As of May 25, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.15 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and the delivery volume was 4.22 billion pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. As of June 1, the weekly railway freight volume was 78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 52.008 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14% [43][47]. 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of May 28, the operating rate of blast furnaces of major steel enterprises was 77.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. As of May 29, the asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [52]. - As of May 29, the soda ash operating rate was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, the PVC operating rate was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. As of May 30, the average operating rates of PX and PTA were 82.1% and 74.2% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 6.2% and 1.1% [56]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of May 29, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.31 million square meters, with month - on - month increases of 8.9%, 18.3%, and 6.7% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively. The number of transactions was 23,000 units, with month - on - month increases of 6.9%, 17.0%, and - 0.6% in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities respectively [64]. - As of May 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities was 1.921 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% in May. As of May 25, the listing volume index of second - hand housing in the country was 16.0, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.8% in May. The listing price index was 154.6, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% in May [70]. - As of June 1, the number of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 552, a month - on - month increase of 35.0%. The floor price per square meter was 49,504 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.3%, and the land premium rate was 4.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 25.5% [74]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of May 30, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.8 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [75][80]. - The commodity price BPI on June 1 was 856, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the beginning of the year. The price of thermal coal at northern ports on May 30 was 615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.1% compared to the beginning of the year. The spot price of rebar on May 30 was 3077.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The spot price of iron ore was 756.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The spot price of glass was 14.4 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [80][83][84]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Stable Capital Interest Rates - On May 30, overnight Shibor was 1.47%, down 3.50BP from May 26. R001 was 1.57%, up 1.78BP; R007 was 1.70%, up 0.12BP. DR001 was 1.48%, down 2.91BP; DR007 was 1.66%, up 1.00BP. IBO001 was 1.51%, down 3.57BP; IBO007 was 1.58%, up 12.78BP [88]. - Most Treasury bond yields declined. On May 30, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields were 1.46%/1.56%/1.67%/1.89% respectively, up 1.1BP/down 0.2BP/down 5.0BP/up 0.3BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year state - owned development bonds were 1.54%/1.62%/1.70%/2.07% respectively, up 1.5BP/up 1.5BP/down 1.6BP/down 0.1BP compared to May 23 [98]. - On May 30, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.52%/1.66%/1.87% respectively, up 3.0BP/down 1.7BP/up 1.2BP compared to May 23. The yields of 1 - month/1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.56%/1.70%/1.59%/1.74% respectively, down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP/down 6.1BP/up 0.2BP compared to May 23 [102]. - The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on May 30 were 7.18 and 7.20 respectively, down 71 pips and up 58 pips compared to May 23 [105]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Interest - rate Bond Funds Extend Duration, Credit - bond Funds Keep Duration Stable - As of May 25, the net - loss rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.08%, a decrease of 0.89BP from the beginning of the year, and it has dropped to the lowest level this year [107]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure interest - rate bond funds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.1 years, and the estimated average duration was about 4.6 years, an increase of about 0.09 years compared to the previous week [110]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure credit - bond funds has shown a slight fluctuation trend. On May 29, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.0 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, a decrease of about 0.05 years compared to the previous week [111]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market opportunities may come from adjustments. When the 10Y Treasury bond yield reaches the upper limit of the range, extend the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration, and conduct 10BP - level band operations [2]. - In June, the bond market may face several challenges. It is recommended to wait until the second half of June for interest - rate bond band opportunities. The total maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June will reach 4.17 trillion yuan, a record high in recent years. The scale of wealth management products may decline seasonally in the second half of June, and the scale may increase significantly in July due to the reduction of deposit interest rates [2]. - The yield curve of credit bonds within 5 years may flatten. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. It is also recommended to pay more attention to Hong Kong - listed financial stocks, fixed - income + Hong Kong - listed dividend stocks, and continue to be bullish on Hong Kong - listed banks [116].

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 4, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 105.82 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.13% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 15.248 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 14.4 million shares, also a new high in the past month [1] - In the last 14 days, the Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 323 million yuan, totaling 1.557 billion yuan, averaging 111 million yuan daily [1] - The latest margin buying amount for the Company Bond ETF is 2.0106 million yuan, with a margin balance of 2.7483 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) is in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 117.15 yuan [3] - Over the past six months, the National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.22% [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.435 billion yuan [3] - Recent fund inflows and outflows for the National Bond ETF have been balanced, with a total of 17.566 million yuan in the last four trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is also in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 106.04 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.96% [5] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 6.0126 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.52% [5] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF has increased by 123 million yuan over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [5] Group 4: Market Overview and Insights - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [6] - The secondary market for interest rate bonds saw significant net selling by joint-stock banks, with a net sell of 59 billion yuan from joint-stock banks and a net buy of 24 billion yuan from large banks [6] - The market outlook for Hong Kong financial stocks remains positive, with a potential 30% upside for Hong Kong banks due to stable net interest margins and low domestic risk-free rates [6] - Year-to-date, the pure bond fund index has yielded 0.47%, underperforming money market funds [6] Group 5: ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020), covering government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds across various durations [7]