Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and a general decline in net asset values [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [2]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, prompting adjustments in net asset value precision, compared to 19 and 14 funds in June and May, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to a recovery in risk appetite, with preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products contributing to market disturbances [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China's large liquidity injections have alleviated market tension, leading to a slight decline in the yield of the 10-year government bond, indicating a potential turning point in redemption trends [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with potential short-term recovery opportunities [4]. - Factors such as the end of the "anti-involution" trend and the recent monetary policy adjustments may provide a basis for a rebound in the bond market [4][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market sentiment and performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market, emphasizing that despite short-term fluctuations, bond funds remain a viable long-term investment option due to their inherent income-generating characteristics and historical performance trends [2][36]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The bond market has experienced a notable adjustment due to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite driven by optimistic policy expectations and asset rotation effects [6][19]. - The recent rise in commodity prices and stock market strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, has diluted the appeal of fixed-income products [7][19]. - A temporary tightening of liquidity conditions, highlighted by the central bank's net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, has contributed to the upward pressure on bond yields [13][19]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the bond market has undergone several "stress tests," with each adjustment reflecting a revaluation of economic expectations, policy rhythms, and trading structures [21][28]. - The article outlines past significant adjustments, such as the "money shortage" in 2013 and the "debt disaster" in 2016, demonstrating that the bond market has consistently recovered from downturns [24][25][26]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term trend remains favorable for bond investments, characterized by a "bullish long, bearish short" pattern [29][34]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The bond market's fundamental appeal lies in its fixed income nature, which provides a safety net against capital loss, allowing for potential recovery over time [38][39]. - Data shows that even during challenging periods, such as 2013 and 2018, bond indices have achieved positive returns, reinforcing their role as a defensive investment choice [44][46]. - The article concludes that despite short-term fluctuations, the bond market is positioned favorably for long-term investment, serving as a crucial component of diversified portfolios [51][50].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in both liquidity and net inflow, indicating strong market interest and performance despite recent adjustments in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 28, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has accumulated a 10.68% increase over the past year [3]. - The latest scale of the ETF reached 14.453 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past year [3]. - The ETF's net value has increased by 10.72% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 414 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 26.14% with a trading volume of 3.768 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has seen an average daily trading volume of 4.283 billion yuan [3]. - The ETF has recorded continuous net inflows for eight days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.510 billion yuan, totaling 5.495 billion yuan in net inflows [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profitability probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. Group 4: Market Influences - Recent adjustments in the bond market are influenced by rising short-term funding rates and increasing inflation expectations, which have pushed up yields on government bonds with maturities of three years and above [3]. - The People's Bank of China has conducted a net liquidity injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in 10-year government bond yields is influenced by a combination of factors, including increased risk appetite in the equity market and rising commodity prices, challenging the underlying logic of "low demand, low inflation" that previously supported the bond market [1][2][6] - The 10-year government bond yield rose significantly, increasing nearly 8 basis points from 1.66% to 1.73% over the first four trading days of the week [1][6] - Despite the pressure on bond funds due to redemption, institutions remain optimistic about the market's future development, viewing the current risk in the bond market as manageable [1][7] Group 2 - The performance of bond funds varied, with secondary bond funds showing strong results; for instance, the highest weekly return was 5.92% for the Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One-Year A fund [2][4] - The redemption pressure on bond funds has increased significantly, with institutions expressing concerns about negative feedback from the market, although it is still considered a relatively controllable phase [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the bond market present a potential opportunity for investment, despite the volatility, as the overall market is not expected to turn bearish [6][7]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the bond market interest rates may have reached a peak after an unexpected adjustment, driven by three main factors: tight liquidity, rising inflation expectations due to "anti-involution," and the impact of a rising equity market on the bond market [4][7][11] - The analysis indicates that the tight liquidity is not a causal factor for the bond market adjustment but rather a synchronous relationship, with the central bank's recent operations showing an intention to alleviate the negative feedback loop [4][7][11] - The report anticipates that the inflation expectations driven by "anti-involution" will not persist for long, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unlikely to turn positive within the year, leading to a gradual calming of market expectations [4][7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the equity market is expected to continue rising, but this does not necessarily imply an increase in interest rates. The upward momentum in the equity market will likely return to expectations of improved national governance and technological leadership in economic transformation [8][11] - The report recommends gradual participation in liquid interest rate bonds, such as 10-year government bonds yielding over 1.7% and 30-year government bonds yielding over 1.95%, while advising caution with less liquid credit bonds due to potential downside risks [11][12] - The report notes that the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.7%, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various maturities [35][36][41]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to pressure on bond fund net values, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Fund Performance - Over half of bond funds have reported negative performance since July, with notable declines in funds like Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond and Debon Ruiyu Interest Rate Bond, which saw net value drops exceeding 1.5% within the month [1]. - The number of bond funds with year-to-date net value losses has increased to 426 [1]. - Some bond fund holders have opted for redemptions amid these adjustments, raising concerns about the duration of the bond market's downturn [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent bond market adjustment has been structurally significant, primarily affecting long-term interest rate bonds and certain credit bonds, with 30-year treasury bond ETFs experiencing declines over 1.6% in the past five days [2]. - Increased risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets has contributed to the pressure on the bond market, with a notable steepening of the yield curve [2][3]. - The recent adjustments have led to a significant outflow of funds from bond ETFs, with 656 million yuan exiting bond ETFs on July 24, interrupting a streak of net inflows [4][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investor sentiment has been cautious, with some expressing fears of a repeat of the significant downturn seen at the end of 2022 [4][6]. - Despite the current volatility, some fund managers believe that the bond market is not entering a bearish phase and that adjustments may present new investment opportunities [7][8]. - The credit bond market is undergoing adjustments after a period of low spreads, and while caution is advised, there are still opportunities in the relative value of interest rate bonds [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjustment may have some short - term repair due to emerging positives, but in the long run, the probability of interest rates breaking through the lows is small, and the interest rate center is expected to fluctuate and rise [2][8]. - The bond market short - term adjustment is in place, with possible over - decline repair, but the downward amplitude may be limited, and heavy - position participation is not recommended. Strategies suggest being cautious in duration, reducing annual return expectations, and seizing short - term trading opportunities [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Adjustment Situation - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of equities and commodities, and the yield of each maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 6.72BP to 1.73% compared with July 18, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 1.97%, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening [5]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market Funding Aspect - The central bank began large - scale injections at the end of the month, showing an obvious attitude of care. On Thursday, the suddenly tightened funding became the "last straw" for the bond market, but on Friday, the central bank's operations led to a rapid shift to a loose funding situation, with a net injection of 8018 billion yuan [2][8]. Asset - Liability Aspect - The reduction of the insurance预定利率 is a short - term positive for the bond market, but it also has two - sided effects. It may lead to a reduction in the adjustment range of the bond market, but it may also cause a loss of insurance liability - side funds [2][10]. Institutional Behavior Aspect - Insurance has changed from a stable configuration strategy to a trading mindset. The weekly average net purchase scale in July decreased to 44.8 billion yuan, lower than that from February to March [2][15]. - During the bond market's weak adjustment this week, the main selling forces were funds and securities companies, while rural commercial banks increased their positions. Funds further reduced their duration, and the 10 - day average of the net purchase duration of funds has dropped to a relatively low historical quantile level [16]. Key Psychological Point and Technical Analysis - 1.75% is a key psychological point in the market, and the probability of a short - term rapid break to 1.80% is low [22]. - Technically, the bearish force has increased marginally, but short - term technical indicators show over - decline rebound signals. There may be over - decline trading opportunities next week, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level [23]. Long - Term Impact of Re - inflation Trading - The re - inflation trading caused by anti - involution is still in the initial stage, so its impact on the bond market is limited [24][27].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments recently, leading to a majority of bond funds reporting negative performance, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance of Bond Funds - In July, over half of bond funds reported negative performance, with notable declines in funds like Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond and Debon Ruiyu Interest Rate Bond, which saw net value declines exceeding 1.5% [2][10]. - The number of bond funds with year-to-date net value losses has increased to 426 [2]. Investor Reactions - Due to the pressure on net values, some bond fund holders have opted to redeem their investments, raising concerns about when the current bond market adjustment will stabilize [3][9]. - Investors have expressed worries about potential large-scale withdrawals similar to those seen at the end of 2022, when the long-term pure bond fund index experienced over 1% decline [9]. Market Dynamics - The recent bond market adjustment has been characterized by structural changes, with long-term interest rate bonds and certain credit bonds experiencing the most significant declines [6][12]. - The rise in risk appetite due to the performance of stocks and commodities has put additional pressure on the bond market [7][8]. Fund Flows and ETF Activity - On July 24, there was a net outflow of 656 million yuan from bond ETFs, breaking a streak of continuous net inflows [10][11]. - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with the total scale surpassing 500 billion yuan for the first time in July [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, some analysts believe that the bond market is not at a turning point towards bearish trends and that adjustments present opportunities for investment [15][16]. - The internal logic supporting a bullish outlook for bonds remains strong, driven by weakening financing demand and debt leverage, alongside a potential for monetary policy easing [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amidst the strong performance of equities and commodities, the bond market adjustment intensified, and bond funds may have faced large - scale redemptions. The net selling of bonds by funds reached nearly 100 billion yuan per day [2][10]. - The current adjustment is characterized by a relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the market had been in a slow decline for nearly three weeks. From a quantity perspective, the net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, while wealth management maintained net buying [2][11][12]. - The main reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite and the marginal improvement of fundamental expectations. Concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude and the high pre - market congestion amplified market fluctuations [2][15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited, and the allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, especially 5Y CDB bonds and 30Y treasury bonds that have experienced significant recent adjustments. Trading portfolios should focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [2][18][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the tight money market, strong performance of the stock and commodity markets suppressed bond market sentiment, and redemption pressure increased. Yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively. The bond market adjusted due to factors such as the implementation of anti - involution policies, the start of hydropower projects, and changes in money market liquidity [9]. - The characteristics of the current adjustment include relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the previous slow decline lasted nearly three weeks. The net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, and wealth management maintained net buying [11][12]. - The reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite, marginal improvement of fundamental expectations, concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude, and high pre - market congestion [15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited. The allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, and trading portfolios focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [18][21]. 3.2. Bond Market Review 3.2.1. Money Market: Net Central Bank Injection, Rising Money Market Rates - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 1095 billion yuan. Money market rates rose. R001 and DR001 rose by 6bp to 1.55% and 1.52% respectively. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate fluctuated, and the 1M national - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount price decreased by 15bp [25][26]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market Trends: Rising Yields - This week, bond yields rose. Except for the 3m treasury bond, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 7y - 5y, 10y - 7y, and 30 - 20y treasury bond term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of July 25, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively to 1.73% and 1.97% [34]. 3.2.3. Bond Market Sentiment: Declining Bond Fund Duration, Continuing Decline in Inter - bank Leverage Ratio - This week, the median duration of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds continued to rise, the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread narrowed, and the 20Y - 30Y treasury bond spread slightly widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 122.9%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds widened [41]. 3.2.4. Bond Supply: Next Week's Continued Issuance of 50Y Special Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased compared to the previous week. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, while the net financing of local government bonds and policy - based financial bonds increased. This week, the issuance scale of treasury bonds increased, but the continuation issuance sentiment of 30Y treasury bonds was weak. Next week, the 50Y treasury bond will be continued for issuance. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the issuance rate dropped slightly to 1.61% [54][59]. 3.3. Economic Data: Rising Port Throughput, Slowing Industrial Production - In July, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. Since July, port throughput has increased, the freight rate index has weakened year - on - year, and industrial production has slowed down. In terms of real estate, new - home sales have improved, and second - hand home sales have shown mixed performance. In terms of consumption, automobile consumption has been stable, and movie consumption has marginally improved. In terms of exports, port throughput has increased, but the freight rate index has declined. Industrial production has slowed down, with some开工率 indicators decreasing [65]. 3.4. Overseas Bond Market: Narrowing of the 10Y Treasury Bond Yield Spread between China and the US - The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction. Overseas bond markets showed that the bond markets of China, Japan, and Germany declined, while most emerging markets rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield spread between China and the US narrowed by 11BP [73][74][77]. 3.5. Major Asset Classes: Strong Performance of Rebar and Stock Indexes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, and the Nanhua Rebar index strengthened, while the US dollar index weakened. This week, the performance of major asset classes was as follows: rebar > CSI 1000 > convertible bonds > live pigs > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese bonds > crude oil > US dollar [78]. 3.6. Policy Review - Multiple policies were introduced this week, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market, the public solicitation of opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, the strengthening of financial services for rural reform, and announcements related to the Hainan Free Trade Port's full - island customs closure, the Rural Highway Regulations, and the Housing Rental Regulations. The implementation effects of these policies need to be further observed [80][83][84]