新华财经北京12月15日电（王菁）债市周一（12月15日）延续调整，随着近期重要会议内容落地，机构 止盈情绪更加突出，日内超长债领跌主要利率债，国债期货主力全线收跌；公开市场单日净投放86亿 元，资金利率月中走势分化。 机构认为，阶段性反弹行情基本结束，调整行情或仍在持续。近期30年等超长债波动加剧，与该期限聚 集了大量交易盘、而配置力量不足有关，目前后续方向不算明朗。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.99%报111.53，10年期主力合约跌0.12%报107.87，5年期 主力合约跌0.03%报105.785，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.454。 【一级市场】 农发行1.074年、3年、5年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.4518%、1.6228%、1.7640%，全场倍数分别为 2.95、5.08、3.77，边际倍数分别为3.64、1.05、3.49。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12月15日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1309亿元7天期逆回购操作， 操作利率1.40%，投标量1309亿元，中标量1309亿元。数据显示，当日1223亿元逆回购到期，据此计 算，单日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to face downward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.76% to around 1.86% in November, an increase of nearly 10 basis points [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, the China Bond Composite Index fell by 0.2%, a significant drop compared to typical fluctuations [4]. - The bond market has been in a downward trend since mid-November, reaching new lows on December 4, which contradicts expectations of a year-end rally typically seen as institutions increase bond purchases [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in the 10-year government bond yield corresponds with a decline in bond prices, highlighting the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields [3]. - The recent sharp decline in the bond market is attributed to trading behaviors rather than fundamental changes in the macroeconomic environment [11][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of ultra-long bonds is expected to increase, with the issuance of special long-term government bonds projected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2025, creating ongoing pressure on the market [13]. - Demand for long-duration bonds is weakening due to various factors, including banks' limitations on duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a decrease in their willingness to hold long-term bonds [14]. - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance funds to shift their investment preferences from the bond market to the stock market, further impacting demand for bonds [15]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank is maintaining a loose monetary policy, as indicated by its recent liquidity operations, which aim to stabilize market expectations and provide a basic liquidity guarantee for the bond market [22]. - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading operations, signal a potential "official buying" presence in the market, which could help stabilize market confidence [24]. - The overall policy direction remains supportive of a loose monetary environment, which is crucial for the bond market's long-term stability [25][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current market panic may be overextending future pessimistic expectations, and as emotions stabilize, solid policy logic will likely reassert itself in pricing [26]. - The fundamental drivers of the bond market, including economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, will continue to guide its medium to long-term direction [27].

债基为何也"玩心跳"？ 债券基金稳健的形象正在面临考验。 12月以来，债市再度遭遇逆风，10年期国债收益率冲高1.8723%，叠加地产信用风波与各种市场传闻，多只债基净值"跳水"。华宸未来稳健添利A近一月暴 跌7.72%，年内收益一朝清零，更将净值砸回两年前水平；作为纯债产品的汇添富丰和纯债A，年内跌幅累计超过7%，投资者直呼"跌出了股基的感觉"。 伴随净值下跌，赎回压力同步显现。作为三季度"失血王"的债基再度遭遇大额赎回，四季度近60只产品因大额赎回紧急提高净值精度。不过，第一财经从部 分机构人士处了解到，近期纯债产品赎回情况已渐趋平稳，叠加年末持续营销等因素，债基整体规模仍保持净流入。此外，"固收+"产品成为这一阶段的重 点营销项目。 那么，此轮调整原因为何？长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕告诉第一财经记者，本轮市场调整并非由基本面或资金面的实质性变化所主导，更多是 市场情绪波动叠加机构行为调整引发的阶段性波动。 展望后续，吴冰燕提示，市场接下来核心关注点集中在会议释放的政策增量信息，包括明年宏观政策基调、货币与财政政策协同方向、稳增长与防风险的平 衡措施等。"这些信息将直接影响机构对后续市场走势的判 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining above 1.8% since September, leading to a total return of only 0.78% for pure bond funds this year, which is lower than that of money market funds [1][2] - The recent simultaneous decline in both stock and bond markets is attributed to low risk-reward environments and ongoing concerns about potential new regulations, resulting in insufficient buying interest from investors [2][4] - The bond market's weakness is further exacerbated by year-end profit-taking demands from institutions, alongside a lack of significant short-term positive catalysts, leading to increased selling pressure [1][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that significant adjustments in the bond market are often linked to economic expectations, policy shifts, and changes in trading structures, with past downturns indicating a pattern of recovery following each major decline [5][7] - The bond market has undergone five notable adjustments in the past five years, with each instance reflecting a re-evaluation of market conditions and investor sentiment [5][7] - Current market conditions suggest that while the bond market may remain in a narrow trading range in the short term, there is potential for improvement in the short-end supply-demand structure due to a clear supportive stance from the central bank [4][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the current bond market environment should focus on short to medium-duration bond funds, while maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration bonds until market trends become clearer [9][11] - The concept of "timing" in bond fund investment is less critical than ensuring a balanced asset allocation, as bonds inherently possess income-generating characteristics that can mitigate short-term volatility [8][9] - The introduction of "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to enhance returns while managing risk, particularly in a fluctuating market [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with ultra-long bonds leading the decline, but historical data suggests limited downside potential for such assets. Analysts indicate that the value proposition of ultra-long bonds may have emerged, making them a preferred asset for future allocations, contingent on monetary policy changes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of December 1 to 7, the bond market showed a downward trend, particularly in long-term bonds, with ultra-long bonds significantly dragging down the market. The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds recorded negative returns [2][3]. - The yield on 30-year special treasury bonds rose nearly 10 basis points in one week, with active bonds approaching historical highs. The yield on 10-year treasury bonds also surpassed 1.85%, indicating a bearish sentiment towards long-term assets [2][3]. - The average performance of medium to long-term bond funds was -0.11%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average of -0.02%, highlighting a notable retreat in medium to long-term bond fund performance [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by trading structure rather than fundamental or macroeconomic changes. The ultra-long bonds are caught in a negative feedback loop of "selling leads to further selling" due to market sentiment [3][6]. - Large banks and rural commercial banks emerged as key buyers of interest rate bonds, with net purchases of 1,316 billion and 761 billion respectively, indicating a counter-cyclical investment strategy [6][7]. - In contrast, trading entities such as funds and brokerages collectively sold off interest rate bonds, with net sales of 681 billion and 739 billion respectively, driven by concerns over public fund fee reforms and net asset value declines [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a strategy of "buying on dips" and adopting a barbell allocation approach, particularly as the yield on 30-year treasury bonds approaches 2.3% or when the yield spread exceeds 40 basis points [3][8]. - The market is expected to stabilize, with a shift from defensive to proactive investment strategies, although short-term volatility risks remain [7][8]. - Long-term, the logic of economic transformation and declining interest rate levels remains intact, with a focus on coupon income and moderate trading operations to mitigate volatility impacts [8].

"买入就亏损，还不能赎回""赚一天亏两天""在封闭期跌了怎么办"……近期，社交平台上关于银行理财 产品收益波动的讨论持续升温。部分理财产品净值近期为何出现回撤？投资者该如何应对？中国证券报 记者调研发现，此次理财市场扰动主要源于12月以来债券市场的调整。业内人士普遍认为，当前债市调 整属短期现象，基本面与政策面未出现显著利空，投资者无需过度恐慌，锚定长期价值、匹配自身需求 才是理性之举。 投资者热议两类话题 购买理财产品是不少投资者眼中的"稳健之选"。面对债市调整，一些投资者开始担忧理财产品会受到影 响。近期理财市场波动与12月以来长债市场调整存在一定关联，尤其是在12月4日，30年期国债期货主 力合约单日下跌1.04%，10年期国债期货主力合约下跌0.35%，当日债市表现一度成为市场关注的焦 点。 根据银行业理财登记托管中心数据，截至今年三季度末，理财产品投向债券余额13.86万亿元，占总投 资的40.4%。债券就像理财产品的"压舱石"，只要债市波动，理财产品净值就会随之起伏。业内人士表 示，债券在理财产品的资产配置中占比较高，所以此次长债调整对一些持有相关标的的理财产品冲击较 大。 记者梳理发现，投资者当 ...

Core Idea - Current market conditions suggest not to aggressively bottom-fish but to consider small positions for short-term gains, with a focus on 1-2 basis point fluctuations before retreating [3][32] - There is a probability of unexpected monetary easing in Q1 next year, and if there is large-scale central bank net buying of government bonds, significant trading opportunities may arise [3][32] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The bond market currently lacks major institutional buyers, with funds showing diminished profit effects and banks potentially selling old bonds due to year-end pressures [4][7][9] - Fund products are under pressure, with a notable decline in the scale of long-term bond ETFs from approximately 55 billion to 48 billion since November [7][41] - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks as substitutes for long-term bonds, with the dividend yield of the A-share dividend index at approximately 4.3%-4.4%, significantly higher than the 30-year government bond yield of 2.25% [16][48] Group 2: Future Opportunities - Patience is advised for positioning after the year-end, as new rounds of easing may emerge post-New Year, with expectations of increased central bank bond purchases [4][50] - The market anticipates a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, with potential significant trading opportunities when the main contract price approaches 109 yuan [4][50][53] - The current lack of trend-following buying interest from major institutional investors suggests that the bond market's negative sentiment may not have fully dissipated [4][34] Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on risk control, while mid-term outlooks remain optimistic, anticipating a shift in investment strategies from capital gains to carry strategies [4][34] - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound as year-end adjustments conclude, with institutions likely to increase their allocations [4][53] - The central bank's bond buying signals are currently more significant than their actual impact, with expectations of increased buying in the near future [4][50]

12月4日，债券市场大幅下跌。国债期货全线飘绿，30年期国债期货主力合约盘中创2024年11月23日以来新低。现 券市场上，30年期、10年期国债活跃券收益率上行。 国债期货全线飘绿 | CFFEX 30年期国债期货 △ | | > | CFFEX 5年期国债期货 C | | A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | 30年主连 TL.CFE | 112.450 | -1.04% | 5年主连 | 105.595 | -0.24% | | | | | TFCFE | | | | TL2512 TL2512 CFE | 113.000 | -0.69% | TF2512 | 105.615 | -0.15% | | | | | TF2512.CFE | | | | TL2603 TL2603.CFE | 112.450 | -1.04% | TF2603 | 105.595 | -0.24% | | | | | TF2603 CFE | | | | TL2606 TL2606.CFE | 112.6 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has recently experienced adjustments, with some bond funds showing significant declines, notably the Huachen Future Stable Income A fund, which saw a cumulative drop of 6.66% over three trading days, a rare occurrence in bond funds [1] - Market speculation suggests that the fund may have encountered issues with certain real estate credit bonds, although the company's customer service indicated that the decline in net value is related to the market environment affecting specific bonds [1] - The fund experienced substantial redemption activity in recent days, which exacerbated the volatility of its net value, and the negative impact of these redemptions will take time to fully digest [1] Group 2 - As of December 1, the Huachen Future Stable Income A fund had a year-to-date net value decline of 5.89%, ranking it at the bottom among bond funds [1] - The fund's third-quarter report shows that its top five bond holdings are primarily government bonds, which collectively account for 36.55% of the fund's net asset value, indicating a lack of corporate credit bond holdings [1] - Despite the stability of the government bonds held, the significant drop in net value raises questions about potential changes in the fund's holdings over the past two months [1] Group 3 - Huachen Trust recently announced plans to transfer 40% of its stake in Huachen Future Fund, with a listing price of 17.2 million yuan, from November 24 to December 19 [2] - As of the end of the third quarter, the total scale of Huachen Future Fund was only 195 million yuan, placing it low in industry rankings [2] - The assessment of the stake's value is based on a benchmark date of December 31, 2024, with the evaluated value of the 40% stake being 4.52 million yuan, although the assessment agency expressed reservations about the fund's ongoing viability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of government bond trading operations, indicating a continuation of a loose monetary policy and coordination with fiscal debt issuance [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - On October 27, 2025, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the bond market is currently operating well, leading to the decision to resume open market operations for government bonds [2] - The timing of the resumption slightly exceeded market expectations, resulting in a rapid decline in bond yields following the announcement [2] Group 2: Event Analysis - The resumption of government bond trading is aligned with a proactive fiscal policy and a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, as discussed in a recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC [3] - The necessity for resuming bond trading has increased due to the maturity of the previous round of bond purchases, which totaled 1 trillion yuan from August to December 2024, with approximately 700 billion yuan maturing by the end of September [3][6] Group 3: Market Conditions - The bond market has undergone sufficient adjustments, with interest rates returning to a relatively reasonable range after a significant upward shift in the yield curve since the beginning of the year [6] - The current market conditions provide a favorable environment for the resumption of government bond trading, as the short-end interest rates have shown significant recovery [12] Group 4: Trading Strategy - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market, reducing adjustment risks in the short term [10] - It is recommended to lower the hedging ratio for those who previously used government bond futures for short hedging, while maintaining long positions in the TS2512 contract and exploring opportunities in the TF contract [10]