Overview - The U.S. June core CPI data was slightly weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% against a market expectation of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to an expected 0.3%[2] - The overall CPI for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations[2] Inflation Drivers - The main contributors to the CPI rebound were rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services[22] - The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases[22] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, indicating a warming in core goods inflation, with clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment showing upward trends[24] - However, the used car CPI fell by -0.7% month-on-month, although future trends may indicate a rebound according to the Manheim used car index[24] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see further inflationary pressures, particularly in the third quarter, which is expected to be a critical verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects[35] - The combination of rising tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from U.S. companies suggests that inflation may enter an upward trajectory[35] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflationary pressures in the third quarter[39] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector employment slowing down, which may influence the Fed's decision-making[39] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[41]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting rising global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. Core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies suggests inflation may enter an upward range [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions [34][40]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]

Group 1 - The new round of tariffs announced by the U.S. government is causing significant uncertainty in the stock market, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [1][2] - The tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, include a 30% tax on products from Mexico and the EU, and a 35% tax on goods from Canada, which is expected to disrupt inflation forecasts and complicate monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate outlooks, with concerns that tariffs may lead to persistent inflation pressures, while some officials believe the impact will be temporary [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies is under scrutiny, with major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report results amid potential tariff impacts [5] - The S&P 500 index's earnings growth is projected to slow to 5.8% year-over-year for Q2, down from 13.7% in Q1, raising questions about whether earnings can support current stock prices [6] - A weaker U.S. dollar, which has depreciated approximately 7% in Q2 and 10% year-to-date, may help mitigate some of the adverse effects of tariffs on multinational companies [6] Group 3 - Concerns are growing that the negative effects of tariffs will soon impact corporate performance and market conditions, particularly for smaller companies that may struggle to pass on increased costs to consumers [7] - Analysts suggest that if negotiations fail and tariffs are fully implemented, the stock market could experience further declines, while successful agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea could boost related sectors such as automotive and electronics [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, with a potential decline resuming in 2026. The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to materialize eventually [1][4]. Group 1: Current Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation has been weaker than expected in the first half of the year, influenced by falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and insufficient transmission of tariffs [1][2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, despite rising expectations for inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Impact - The slow implementation of tariffs is a key reason for the lack of significant inflation increase in the U.S. The actual tariff rates remain below theoretical levels due to delays in the tariff collection process [3]. - U.S. companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are willing to pass on tariff costs to consumers, with the current impact on retail profit margins estimated at 2.5 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as potential dollar depreciation, tariff escalations, and rising oil prices [4]. - Conversely, if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected in the second half, inflation may perform weaker than anticipated, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weak performance of US inflation despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning why tariffs have not led to higher inflation and whether inflation will rebound in the second half of the year [2][6]. Group 1: Review of US Inflation Performance - In the first half of the year, US inflation was weaker than expected due to falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and limited transmission of tariffs [2][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mere 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, below the market expectation of 0.2% [6]. - Key factors contributing to the weak inflation included a decline in energy prices, stable rental and core service inflation, and a less-than-expected impact of tariffs on goods inflation [14][20][26]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Effects on Inflation - The slow actual collection of tariffs is a significant reason for the lack of noticeable inflation increase in the US [33]. - The effective tariff rate remains below theoretical levels due to delays in tariff collection processes, with actual tariff revenue reaching $15.6 billion in April against $276 billion in imports [33][34]. - Companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends in US Inflation - The article suggests that while the effects of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, they are expected to manifest in the second half of the year, potentially leading to an upward trend in inflation [57]. - Evidence indicates that retail prices have begun to accelerate since June, and various manufacturing price indices suggest increasing inflationary pressures [57][64]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts predict that the peak of US CPI may occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a subsequent decline expected in 2026 [70].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但 CPI 表现较弱。密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期一度飙升至 6.6%，4 月 11 日以来 10Y 美债隐含通胀预期上行 13BP，进口价格指 数也在 4 月、5 月明显上涨。但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5 月 CPI 环比仅 0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。1）1-5 月油价走弱 拖累整体通胀，但 6 月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持 续性较强；3）关税对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 2025 年 06 月 22 日 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因之一。美国当前实际征收税率水平仍 低于理论水平，可能原因包括关税征收流程的滞后性等。例如，美国对等关税于 4 月 5 日正式 落地，但是在 4 月 5 日之前已 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 - 4.5% in the June FOMC meeting, with the statement indicating that uncertainty has decreased but remains high [1]. - The dot - plot shows a divergence among Fed officials regarding 2025 rate cuts, with more officials thinking no cuts this year [2]. - The Fed believes the economy faces high uncertainty, with potential inflation pressure from tariffs. SEP has adjusted economic forecasts, including lower GDP growth, higher inflation, unemployment, and interest rates [3]. - The report maintains the view that the Fed will cut rates 1 - 2 times this year, likely starting in September, depending on tariff - induced inflation and the job market [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections FOMC Statement and Economic Forecast Summary (SEP) - **Interest Rate Decision**: The federal funds rate target range was kept at 4.25 - 4.5%, unchanged for four consecutive times, in line with market expectations [1]. - **Statement Changes**: The description of economic uncertainty was adjusted, and the mention of rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation was removed [1]. - **Dot - plot Divergence**: Among 19 officials, 7 think no cuts in 2025 (4 in March), 2 suggest 1 cut (4 in March), 8 suggest 2 cuts (9 in March), and 2 suggest 3 cuts (2 in March) [2]. - **Economic Forecast Adjustments**: GDP growth expectations for 2025/2026 were lowered to 1.4%/1.6% (from 1.7%/1.8% in March); unemployment rate expectations for 2025/2026 were raised to 4.5%/4.5% (from 4.4%/4.3%); PCE and core PCE inflation expectations were increased; interest rate expectations for 2026/2027 were raised to 3.6%/3.4% (from 3.4%/3.1%), while the long - term rate remains at 3.0% [3]. Powell's Press Conference - **Tariff Impact on Policy**: Tariff impact on inflation is uncertain. Maintaining the current policy allows for flexible adjustment based on future data [4]. - **Rate Cut Prediction**: The dot - plot reflects individual assessments. Rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation falls; otherwise, policy may remain restrictive [4]. - **Dot - plot Divergence Reasons**: Differences in inflation/growth forecasts and risk assessments lead to the divergence, and it is expected to narrow as more data becomes available [5]. - **External Factors**: The Middle East conflict may cause short - term energy price spikes but usually won't have a long - term inflation impact. The impact of AI on employment is unclear, and the Fed doesn't comment on immigration policy [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Fiscal policy is considered an external factor, with limited impact on the large US economy, and it's not a core topic for now [8]. Market Performance - After the FOMC statement and Powell's press conference, short - term expectations of a tighter monetary policy increased. US stocks declined, US Treasury yields rose, the US dollar strengthened, and gold prices fell. As of the close on June 19, the 2 - year Treasury yield rose 0.22 basis points to 3.941%, the 10 - year yield rose 1.58 basis points to 4.393%, COMEX gold futures fell 0.60%, and the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 98.89 [9]. Subsequent Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates 1 - 2 times this year, with the earliest cut likely in September. The timing depends on tariff - induced inflation and the job market. Tariff inflation effects are delayed but likely to occur, and a rising unemployment rate near or above 4.5% may prompt the Fed to act [10][11]. Asset Allocation Outlook - **US Treasuries**: Short - term yields may stay high due to Fed caution, inflation pulses, and Treasury supply pressure. As the tariff impact on the real economy deepens, there may be opportunities for yield declines. It is recommended to buy 10 - year Treasuries when the yield reaches around 4.5%. The Treasury may increase short - term bond issuance after the debt ceiling is raised, while the private sector's demand for long - term Treasuries has weakened, and commercial banks may bring some incremental demand [12]. - **US Stocks**: The most favorable phase for US stocks in terms of capital flow may have passed. With the weakening of fundamentals, tariff impacts on corporate profits may emerge, and geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty. A cautious view on US stocks is maintained [12]. - **US Dollar**: In the long run, the US dollar may weaken due to debt issues and political uncertainty. The US government may want a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, in the second half of the year, if the US achieves a soft landing and AI enhances the attractiveness of US stocks, the dollar may stabilize or rebound [13].