Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting rising global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. Core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies suggests inflation may enter an upward range [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions [34][40]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]

Group 1 - The new round of tariffs announced by the U.S. government is causing significant uncertainty in the stock market, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [1][2] - The tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, include a 30% tax on products from Mexico and the EU, and a 35% tax on goods from Canada, which is expected to disrupt inflation forecasts and complicate monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate outlooks, with concerns that tariffs may lead to persistent inflation pressures, while some officials believe the impact will be temporary [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies is under scrutiny, with major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report results amid potential tariff impacts [5] - The S&P 500 index's earnings growth is projected to slow to 5.8% year-over-year for Q2, down from 13.7% in Q1, raising questions about whether earnings can support current stock prices [6] - A weaker U.S. dollar, which has depreciated approximately 7% in Q2 and 10% year-to-date, may help mitigate some of the adverse effects of tariffs on multinational companies [6] Group 3 - Concerns are growing that the negative effects of tariffs will soon impact corporate performance and market conditions, particularly for smaller companies that may struggle to pass on increased costs to consumers [7] - Analysts suggest that if negotiations fail and tariffs are fully implemented, the stock market could experience further declines, while successful agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea could boost related sectors such as automotive and electronics [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, with a potential decline resuming in 2026. The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to materialize eventually [1][4]. Group 1: Current Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation has been weaker than expected in the first half of the year, influenced by falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and insufficient transmission of tariffs [1][2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, despite rising expectations for inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Impact - The slow implementation of tariffs is a key reason for the lack of significant inflation increase in the U.S. The actual tariff rates remain below theoretical levels due to delays in the tariff collection process [3]. - U.S. companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are willing to pass on tariff costs to consumers, with the current impact on retail profit margins estimated at 2.5 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as potential dollar depreciation, tariff escalations, and rising oil prices [4]. - Conversely, if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected in the second half, inflation may perform weaker than anticipated, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weak performance of US inflation despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning why tariffs have not led to higher inflation and whether inflation will rebound in the second half of the year [2][6]. Group 1: Review of US Inflation Performance - In the first half of the year, US inflation was weaker than expected due to falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and limited transmission of tariffs [2][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mere 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, below the market expectation of 0.2% [6]. - Key factors contributing to the weak inflation included a decline in energy prices, stable rental and core service inflation, and a less-than-expected impact of tariffs on goods inflation [14][20][26]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Effects on Inflation - The slow actual collection of tariffs is a significant reason for the lack of noticeable inflation increase in the US [33]. - The effective tariff rate remains below theoretical levels due to delays in tariff collection processes, with actual tariff revenue reaching $15.6 billion in April against $276 billion in imports [33][34]. - Companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends in US Inflation - The article suggests that while the effects of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, they are expected to manifest in the second half of the year, potentially leading to an upward trend in inflation [57]. - Evidence indicates that retail prices have begun to accelerate since June, and various manufacturing price indices suggest increasing inflationary pressures [57][64]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts predict that the peak of US CPI may occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a subsequent decline expected in 2026 [70].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但 CPI 表现较弱。密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期一度飙升至 6.6%，4 月 11 日以来 10Y 美债隐含通胀预期上行 13BP，进口价格指 数也在 4 月、5 月明显上涨。但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5 月 CPI 环比仅 0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。1）1-5 月油价走弱 拖累整体通胀，但 6 月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持 续性较强；3）关税对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 2025 年 06 月 22 日 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因之一。美国当前实际征收税率水平仍 低于理论水平，可能原因包括关税征收流程的滞后性等。例如，美国对等关税于 4 月 5 日正式 落地，但是在 4 月 5 日之前已 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 王建刚 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070098 wangjiangang@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 FOMC 声明和经济预测概要（SEP）要点 美联储召开 6 月 FOMC 会议，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%，连续四次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。会 议声明中，"经济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降，但仍处于较高水平"；删除了"认为高失 业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"；总体表述与 5 月声明基本一致。 点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有较大分歧，认为不降息的人数较 3 月明显增加。在 19 位官员中，有 7 位官员认为 2025 年不降息（3 月为 4 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次（3 月为 4 位），有 8 位官员认为 2025 年应降息 2 次（3 月为 9 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 3 次（3 月为 2 位）。 不确定性下保持耐心 —6 月 FOMC 点评 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The meeting primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - The theme of the meeting is "data-dependent decision-making" [2] - There is an increasing risk of stagflation as both unemployment and inflation rates are rising [3] - Inflation effects from tariffs are expected to be more persistent, largely depending on the magnitude and duration of the tariffs [3] - The perception of tariff-related inflation has shifted; the Fed no longer views it as "transitory" [3] - Economic growth uncertainty has further increased, indicating a cautious outlook [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall tone of the meeting was described as "dull," suggesting a lack of immediate action or urgency in policy changes [1][2]