Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, with a potential decline resuming in 2026. The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to materialize eventually [1][4]. Group 1: Current Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation has been weaker than expected in the first half of the year, influenced by falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and insufficient transmission of tariffs [1][2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, despite rising expectations for inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Impact - The slow implementation of tariffs is a key reason for the lack of significant inflation increase in the U.S. The actual tariff rates remain below theoretical levels due to delays in the tariff collection process [3]. - U.S. companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are willing to pass on tariff costs to consumers, with the current impact on retail profit margins estimated at 2.5 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as potential dollar depreciation, tariff escalations, and rising oil prices [4]. - Conversely, if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected in the second half, inflation may perform weaker than anticipated, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weak performance of US inflation despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning why tariffs have not led to higher inflation and whether inflation will rebound in the second half of the year [2][6]. Group 1: Review of US Inflation Performance - In the first half of the year, US inflation was weaker than expected due to falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and limited transmission of tariffs [2][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mere 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, below the market expectation of 0.2% [6]. - Key factors contributing to the weak inflation included a decline in energy prices, stable rental and core service inflation, and a less-than-expected impact of tariffs on goods inflation [14][20][26]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Effects on Inflation - The slow actual collection of tariffs is a significant reason for the lack of noticeable inflation increase in the US [33]. - The effective tariff rate remains below theoretical levels due to delays in tariff collection processes, with actual tariff revenue reaching $15.6 billion in April against $276 billion in imports [33][34]. - Companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends in US Inflation - The article suggests that while the effects of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, they are expected to manifest in the second half of the year, potentially leading to an upward trend in inflation [57]. - Evidence indicates that retail prices have begun to accelerate since June, and various manufacturing price indices suggest increasing inflationary pressures [57][64]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts predict that the peak of US CPI may occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a subsequent decline expected in 2026 [70].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但 CPI 表现较弱。密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期一度飙升至 6.6%，4 月 11 日以来 10Y 美债隐含通胀预期上行 13BP，进口价格指 数也在 4 月、5 月明显上涨。但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5 月 CPI 环比仅 0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。1）1-5 月油价走弱 拖累整体通胀，但 6 月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持 续性较强；3）关税对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 2025 年 06 月 22 日 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因之一。美国当前实际征收税率水平仍 低于理论水平，可能原因包括关税征收流程的滞后性等。例如，美国对等关税于 4 月 5 日正式 落地，但是在 4 月 5 日之前已 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 王建刚 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070098 wangjiangang@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 FOMC 声明和经济预测概要（SEP）要点 美联储召开 6 月 FOMC 会议，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%，连续四次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。会 议声明中，"经济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降，但仍处于较高水平"；删除了"认为高失 业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"；总体表述与 5 月声明基本一致。 点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有较大分歧，认为不降息的人数较 3 月明显增加。在 19 位官员中，有 7 位官员认为 2025 年不降息（3 月为 4 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次（3 月为 4 位），有 8 位官员认为 2025 年应降息 2 次（3 月为 9 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 3 次（3 月为 2 位）。 不确定性下保持耐心 —6 月 FOMC 点评 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中 ...

2经济表述：认为失业率和通胀双双上行的滞胀风险正在逐步增加。 5月联储议息会议摘要 整体会议"索然无味"，"相机抉择"贯穿始终。 1降息表述：耐心+观测数据+不急于降息。 相机抉择是本次会议主题词。 5月联储议息会议摘要 整体会议"索然无味"，"相机抉择"贯穿始终。 1降息表述：耐心+观测数据+不急于降息。 相机抉择是本次会议主题词。 3通胀方面：关税的通胀效应可能更加顽固，很大程度取决于关税的幅度和延续时长。 相较上月，鲍威尔不再认为关税的通胀影响是" 2经济表述：认为失业率和通胀双双上行的滞胀风险正在逐步增加。 3通胀方面：关税的通胀效应可能更加顽固，很大程度取决于关税的幅度和延续时长。 相较上月，鲍威尔不再认为关税的通胀影响是"transitory"。 4就业方面：认为经济增长的不确定性进一步（Further）增加。 。 ...