Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that Huatu Shanding has become a new leader in offline public examination training with impressive performance, targeting a non-net profit of 320 million for 2025 [1] - For 2024, the non-degree training revenue is projected to reach 2.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1046%, and a net profit of 52.99 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-quality products and a strong market presence, with over 330,000 training students and coverage in more than 300 cities and 600 counties [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 830 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with a net profit of 121 million, up 67% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved to 61%, a 6 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 15%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities amounted to 834 million, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase, indicating positive revenue growth expectations [2] Dividends and Buybacks - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.55 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) and to increase capital by issuing 1.8 bonus shares for every 10 shares held, with a total dividend payout ratio of 68% [3] - A share buyback plan is proposed, with a budget of 225 million to 450 million yuan, at a maximum price of 127.91 yuan per share, aiming to repurchase 1.76 million to 3.52 million shares, representing 1.25% to 2.5% of the total share capital [3] Stock Incentives - The company intends to grant stock options not exceeding 2.72 million shares, representing 1.94% of the total share capital, with a purchase price of 45.91 yuan per share [4] - Performance targets for 2025 and 2026 are set at 320 million and 400 million for non-net profit, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth expectations [4] - If performance meets or exceeds the target, 100% of the options will be unlocked; if below the trigger value, none will be unlocked [4]

Group 1 - The stock market serves as a barometer for economic growth quality, influenced by the size and profitability of listed companies, as well as breakthroughs in technological innovation [2][28] - Consumption and export data improvements do not address the long-term issue of insufficient effective demand, highlighting the need to focus on final demand [2] - China is unlikely to follow Japan's path of prolonged deflation due to its more successful industrial policies and strong government support [2][40] Group 2 - The A-share market's valuation is currently reasonable, with an increase in risk appetite [5] - A significant turning point occurred in 2021, marking a peak in A-share company profits, which have since declined for three consecutive years [8][11] - The proportion of listed companies with over 20% profit growth has dropped from 1.2% (2006-2016) to 0.8% (2017-2024), indicating a more challenging environment for profitability [11] Group 3 - The A-share market is characterized by a high concentration of trading in small-cap companies, which account for 63% of total trading volume, yet contribute only 13.2% of profits [15][16] - The head effect in the A-share market is still not prominent, with larger companies having limited influence on the index compared to their U.S. counterparts [20] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity among Chinese companies is significantly lower than in the U.S., indicating a lack of motivation for consolidation [21][22] Group 4 - The current economic challenges require a focus on core issues, with the central government emphasizing the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency [40][41] - China's manufacturing sector is expected to transition towards higher-end production, driven by rising labor costs and the need for improved income distribution [42][44] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's contribution to economic output has surpassed that of real estate, suggesting a shift in economic drivers [45] Group 5 - The central government has room to increase leverage, with a current leverage level of around 25%, compared to over 120% in the U.S. [50][51] - The government is encouraged to take on more responsibilities to avoid redundant construction and optimize local development [52] - The potential of AI as part of the fourth industrial revolution presents significant opportunities across various sectors, with China's manufacturing and tech industries poised for growth [54][55]

以下文章来源于泉果视点 ，作者泉果无限对话 泉果视点 . 泉果基金管理有限公司官方订阅号，第一时间分享泉果基金动态。以专业投研+专业服务，与您相伴在长期投资的道路上。 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷做客【泉果无限对话】，从资本市场、宏观经济、产业政策、企业战略等方面，追本溯 源，剖析当下经济问题的症结所在，并提出了短期维度的预测和长期维度的思考。 "我是做宏观研究的，我30年前就做宏观研究，和现在差不多，一直没有转型。" 李迅雷从事宏观经济、金融与资本市场研究30多年，先后编著、翻译经济及证券类书籍多部，曾多次参加总理座谈会、博鳌 论坛等高级别会议。 李迅雷一贯强调基于事实、深入研究后的谨慎判断，和对市场"共识"的再思考。 ■ 谈及资本市场，他表示："股市是经济的晴雨表，准确地说，它是经济增长质量的晴雨表。 股市背后是上市公司，这些公 司的体量有多大，盈利能力有多强、持续增长时间有多久，决定了股市的表现。 我们能否在科技创新方面取得突破，科技类 企业的盈利是否能提高，进而影响了整个A股市场的表现。" ■ 对于扩大消费，他说："'狗马最难，鬼魅最易'。 消费、出口的数据改善不改变有效需求不足的长期问题，对于提 ...