Core Viewpoint - The National Enterprise Win ETF (159719) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.63%, reflecting a broader trend of rising profits and dividends among Chinese listed companies, particularly state-owned enterprises [3][4]. Performance Summary - As of September 1, 2025, the National Enterprise Win ETF has achieved a net value increase of 51.31% over the past three years, ranking 215 out of 1860 index equity funds, placing it in the top 11.56% [4]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 14.61% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains reaching 7 months and a total increase of 24.70% [4]. - The average monthly return during rising months is 4.14%, with a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% and a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [4]. - Over the past three months, the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 11.82% [4]. Liquidity and Scale - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 6.84% with a trading volume of 4.9045 million yuan on September 1, 2025, and an average daily trading volume of 16.6744 million yuan over the past year [3]. - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 2.187 million yuan, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [3]. - The number of shares increased by 2 million in the past week, also placing it in the top third among comparable funds [3]. Fee Structure and Tracking Precision - The management fee for the National Enterprise Win ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.060%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5]. Index Composition - The ETF closely tracks the FTSE China National Enterprises Open Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, focusing on globalization and sustainable development [5]. - The index consists of 100 constituent stocks, including 80 A-share companies and 20 companies listed in Hong Kong [5]. Top Holdings - The top holdings in the National Enterprise Win ETF include: - China Petroleum (601857) with a weight of 15.94% and a price increase of 2.18% - China Petrochemical (600028) with a weight of 11.93% and a price increase of 1.40% - China State Construction (601668) with a weight of 9.59% and a price increase of 0.18% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has achieved positive same-store sales growth for the first time since 2024, driven by an increase in transaction volume. In Q2 2025, same-store sales grew by 1%, with transaction volume up by 2%, although the average transaction value declined by 1% due to increased small orders from delivery subsidies [7] - Operational efficiency improvements have led to a continuous rise in restaurant profit margins. The operating profit margin for Q2 was 10.9%, up by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, while the restaurant profit margin reached 16.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [7] - The company maintains its guidance for a net addition of 1,600 to 1,800 new stores for the year, while lowering capital expenditure guidance. The investment cost per store has decreased, with KFC's cost down to 1.4 million and Pizza Hut's down to 1.1 million [7] - The company plans to return at least $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial position [7] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of $933.54 million, $1.01275 billion, and $1.13752 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 2.5%, 8.5%, and 12.3% [7] Financial Summary - As of August 8, 2025, the company's closing price was HKD 360.00, with a market capitalization of HKD 132,960.66 million. The asset-liability ratio stands at 41.10% [3][6] - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at $11,763.26 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1% [6][8] - The company reported a Q2 2025 revenue of $2.787 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $215 million, a 1% increase year-on-year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Midea Group, Fang Hongbo, stated that the home appliance industry lacks a competitive moat and cannot produce great companies, indicating that Xiaomi has strategically lost in this sector [2][8]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Financials - Midea Group plans to continue increasing its dividend and share buyback ratio, with a significant rise in the dividend payout ratio expected for 2024 [5][6]. - The company currently has a cash reserve of nearly 40 billion yuan, which is increasing annually, but there are concerns that low capital expenditure may lower return on equity (ROE) [6][7]. - Midea's revenue has surpassed 400 billion yuan, and the company is focusing on both B2B and B2C business models to adapt to the declining growth in the home appliance sector [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The home appliance market is characterized as a mature market with limited growth potential, and Midea is working to slow the decline of its core business while exploring new growth avenues [7][9]. - The company acknowledges the increasing concentration in the home appliance industry, with a notable rise in market share despite the entry of new competitors [7]. - Fang Hongbo emphasized that the home appliance industry is highly competitive and that any new entrants are strategically at a disadvantage, as the market is saturated and efficiency gains are minimal [8][9]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Medical Sector - Midea Group is exploring opportunities in the medical sector, particularly in imaging diagnostic equipment, and is considering establishing a dedicated medical division [9]. - The company believes there is significant growth potential in the medical equipment market, with a target of reaching 50 billion yuan in revenue, as the current largest domestic player, Mindray, has revenues of just over 30 billion yuan [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of listed companies in China for 2024 shows positive trends, with nearly 60% of companies achieving revenue growth [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for all listed companies reached 71.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% in Q4 and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.11% [3] - Net profit amounted to 5.22 trillion yuan, with 4,036 companies reporting profits, of which 2,194 experienced positive profit growth and 553 had profit growth exceeding 100% [3] - Excluding the financial sector, the revenue for real economy companies was 62.89 trillion yuan, and net profit was 2.55 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among 19 industry categories, 7 reported revenue growth, and 16 achieved profitability, with 5 industries showing positive net profit growth [3] - All sub-sectors of manufacturing achieved profitability, with 6 industries reporting revenue growth and 1 industry showing positive net profit growth [3] Group 3: Export and International Revenue - Listed companies maintained a strong export performance, generating 9.44 trillion yuan in overseas revenue, a growth of 7.97%, which accounted for a 1.06 percentage point increase in revenue share compared to the previous year [3] - The export structure improved, with the electrical, electronic, and communication sectors contributing 4.42 trillion yuan in overseas revenue, growing at 10.13% and representing 46.87% of total overseas revenue [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The awareness of returning value to investors among listed companies has increased, with cash dividends and buyback scales reaching new highs, boosting market confidence [4] - A total of 3,751 companies announced or implemented cash dividend plans for 2024, with total dividends nearing 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [4] - In 2024, 1,564 new buyback plans were announced, with a proposed buyback amount of 227.4 billion yuan, and 14 companies planned buybacks exceeding 10 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 18% year-on-year, with a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1] - The company plans to introduce 17 new aircraft from 2025 to 2027, indicating confidence in future growth [2] - The company has announced a cash dividend of 0.19 yuan per share, representing a 45% cash dividend payout ratio, and plans to cancel 15 million repurchased shares [5] - The long-term outlook for the industry suggests a persistent supply constraint with steady demand growth, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and high profit elasticity [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 910 million yuan, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, down 8% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - The aircraft utilization rate improved to 11.5 hours per day in 2024, an increase of approximately 1.2 hours year-on-year [2] - The passenger load factor reached 84.6% in 2024, up 1.8 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company plans to increase its fleet size to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net addition of 10 aircraft [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The unit revenue per available seat kilometer (ASK) decreased by 6% year-on-year to 0.394 yuan in 2024, primarily due to falling ticket prices [3] - The unit cost per ASK also decreased by 6% year-on-year to 0.339 yuan, driven by lower fuel prices [3] Expense Management - The company reduced its unit sales and management expenses by 5% and 16% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4] - Financial expenses decreased to 1.46 billion yuan in 2024, down 0.4 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to lower leasing interest expenses [4] Future Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.32 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that Huatu Shanding has become a new leader in offline public examination training with impressive performance, targeting a non-net profit of 320 million for 2025 [1] - For 2024, the non-degree training revenue is projected to reach 2.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1046%, and a net profit of 52.99 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-quality products and a strong market presence, with over 330,000 training students and coverage in more than 300 cities and 600 counties [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 830 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with a net profit of 121 million, up 67% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved to 61%, a 6 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 15%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities amounted to 834 million, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase, indicating positive revenue growth expectations [2] Dividends and Buybacks - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.55 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) and to increase capital by issuing 1.8 bonus shares for every 10 shares held, with a total dividend payout ratio of 68% [3] - A share buyback plan is proposed, with a budget of 225 million to 450 million yuan, at a maximum price of 127.91 yuan per share, aiming to repurchase 1.76 million to 3.52 million shares, representing 1.25% to 2.5% of the total share capital [3] Stock Incentives - The company intends to grant stock options not exceeding 2.72 million shares, representing 1.94% of the total share capital, with a purchase price of 45.91 yuan per share [4] - Performance targets for 2025 and 2026 are set at 320 million and 400 million for non-net profit, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth expectations [4] - If performance meets or exceeds the target, 100% of the options will be unlocked; if below the trigger value, none will be unlocked [4]

Group 1 - The stock market serves as a barometer for economic growth quality, influenced by the size and profitability of listed companies, as well as breakthroughs in technological innovation [2][28] - Consumption and export data improvements do not address the long-term issue of insufficient effective demand, highlighting the need to focus on final demand [2] - China is unlikely to follow Japan's path of prolonged deflation due to its more successful industrial policies and strong government support [2][40] Group 2 - The A-share market's valuation is currently reasonable, with an increase in risk appetite [5] - A significant turning point occurred in 2021, marking a peak in A-share company profits, which have since declined for three consecutive years [8][11] - The proportion of listed companies with over 20% profit growth has dropped from 1.2% (2006-2016) to 0.8% (2017-2024), indicating a more challenging environment for profitability [11] Group 3 - The A-share market is characterized by a high concentration of trading in small-cap companies, which account for 63% of total trading volume, yet contribute only 13.2% of profits [15][16] - The head effect in the A-share market is still not prominent, with larger companies having limited influence on the index compared to their U.S. counterparts [20] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity among Chinese companies is significantly lower than in the U.S., indicating a lack of motivation for consolidation [21][22] Group 4 - The current economic challenges require a focus on core issues, with the central government emphasizing the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency [40][41] - China's manufacturing sector is expected to transition towards higher-end production, driven by rising labor costs and the need for improved income distribution [42][44] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's contribution to economic output has surpassed that of real estate, suggesting a shift in economic drivers [45] Group 5 - The central government has room to increase leverage, with a current leverage level of around 25%, compared to over 120% in the U.S. [50][51] - The government is encouraged to take on more responsibilities to avoid redundant construction and optimize local development [52] - The potential of AI as part of the fourth industrial revolution presents significant opportunities across various sectors, with China's manufacturing and tech industries poised for growth [54][55]

以下文章来源于泉果视点 ，作者泉果无限对话 泉果视点 . 泉果基金管理有限公司官方订阅号，第一时间分享泉果基金动态。以专业投研+专业服务，与您相伴在长期投资的道路上。 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷做客【泉果无限对话】，从资本市场、宏观经济、产业政策、企业战略等方面，追本溯 源，剖析当下经济问题的症结所在，并提出了短期维度的预测和长期维度的思考。 "我是做宏观研究的，我30年前就做宏观研究，和现在差不多，一直没有转型。" 李迅雷从事宏观经济、金融与资本市场研究30多年，先后编著、翻译经济及证券类书籍多部，曾多次参加总理座谈会、博鳌 论坛等高级别会议。 李迅雷一贯强调基于事实、深入研究后的谨慎判断，和对市场"共识"的再思考。 ■ 谈及资本市场，他表示："股市是经济的晴雨表，准确地说，它是经济增长质量的晴雨表。 股市背后是上市公司，这些公 司的体量有多大，盈利能力有多强、持续增长时间有多久，决定了股市的表现。 我们能否在科技创新方面取得突破，科技类 企业的盈利是否能提高，进而影响了整个A股市场的表现。" ■ 对于扩大消费，他说："'狗马最难，鬼魅最易'。 消费、出口的数据改善不改变有效需求不足的长期问题，对于提 ...