Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not comment on the economic or interest rate outlook during his speech [1] Group 1 - The absence of commentary on economic conditions may indicate a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [1] - Lack of guidance on interest rates could lead to uncertainty in financial markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, did not comment on the interest rate outlook or economic conditions in his prepared remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve Commentary** - Jefferson's prepared remarks lacked any insights regarding the future of interest rates [1] - No statements were made concerning the current economic situation [1]

今日周二（5月13日）欧市盘中，黄金期货延续前一交易日大跌走势，目前最新沪金主力暂报765.00元/ 克，跌幅1.97%，今日开盘价为760.80元/克，截至目前最高上探766.60元/克，最低触及756.02元/克。 市场目光现在聚焦于即将公布的美国CPI数据（北京时间20:30公布），这份报告可能成为决定黄金短期 走势的关键催化剂。如果通胀数据保持粘性，将进一步强化市场对美联储推迟降息的预期，美元可能获 得支撑，而黄金则面临新的压力。目前，交易员正在重新评估利率前景，此前预期的7月降息时间点可 能延后至9月，全年降息幅度预期也从55个基点有所下调。 【黄金期货走势分析】 短线来看目前黄金期货价格下跌，截至发稿暂报765.00元/克，跌幅1.97%，最高上探766.60元/克，最低 触及756.02元/克。今日上方阻力位为820-825，下方支撑位为736-746. 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【宏观消息】 数据显示，美国4月份新车价格飙升，这表明特朗普的汽车关税措施正在影响整个汽车市场。知名汽车 数据机构Cox Automotive发布的"凯利蓝皮书"显示，扣除折扣和促销后，消费者支付的平均价格较3 ...

挪威央行：委员会特别注意到贸易壁垒可能会把利率前景拉向不同的方向。 ...

美联储理事沃勒在演讲中未就利率前景及经济状况作出评论。 ...

美联储穆萨勒姆在演讲中未对利率前景发表评论。 ...

据一位研究了特朗普第一任期内有关美联储推文的经济学家称，特朗普不太可能将解雇美联储主席鲍威 尔的威胁付诸行动，但他为推动降息而发起的公开行动所带来的压力，仍将对美联储的决策产生影响。 约翰霍普金斯大学的经济学教授弗朗西斯科・比安奇（Francesco Bianchi）在接受《市场观察》 （MarketWatch）采访时表示，在特朗普上周发出威胁之后，美联储现在知道，如果出现经济衰退，它 将受到公众的指责。 这将以多种方式损害经济。而对总统来说，这会让他雄心勃勃的减税计划变得更加复杂。 比安奇说："我认为财政部长贝森特明白，这对政府来说绝对是一场灾难，更不用说从更广泛的层面来 看了。" 比安奇说："到时候，不只是特朗普，人们也会说，美联储本应该降息——这才是关键 。" 比安奇补充道："公众舆论正朝着这样一个方向转变，即如果出了问题，那就是美联储的错。我认为这 可能会对美联储实际的决策产生影响。这是一种间接的联系；并不是说他们听从总统的命令。" 目前，市场和美联储在利率前景上存在分歧。衍生品市场的交易员担心经济会出现严重衰退，他们预计 美联储今年将降息100个基点。 另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，特朗普大规 ...