Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley has raised China's GDP growth forecast for the year from 4.1% to 4.8%, assuming current tariff levels remain until the end of the year [2][3] - The contribution of exports to China's economy is expected to decline, while consumption and investment contributions are anticipated to rise, particularly due to policy support [2][3] - The People's Bank of China may continue to lower interest rates and reserve requirements, with one to two rate cuts expected this year [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Hong Kong's stock market has outperformed other Asian markets this year, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of nearly 20% [4][5] - The MSCI China Index, which has a high concentration of Chinese internet giants, has seen earnings expectations raised from 14% to 16% [4][5] - The technology and healthcare sectors are viewed as high-growth areas, with international investors showing significant interest in Chinese internet companies due to their lower valuations compared to U.S. tech giants [5] Group 3: Trade Relations - The current trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are seen as a significant source of uncertainty, with potential impacts on international investment in China [1][5] - If the trade negotiation outlook improves, more international funds may be willing to invest in the Chinese market [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner. Brazil's cotton planting in 2024 has ended, with a total output of 3.7 million tons and an expected output of 3.95 million tons in 2025, which exerts pressure on foreign cotton. The US trade war and inflation issues, along with China's deflation problem, may impact global cotton consumption. If the situation deteriorates, cotton prices may weaken further in the long - term; if the two countries reach an agreement, the situation may reverse [1]. - PTA is likely to have a short - term rebound. The suspension of tariff issues eases concerns about trade disputes, and there are issues in the Middle East and limited US crude oil production, so oil prices may rise before May Day. Supply - side maintenance and production cuts, along with good downstream polyester开工, lead to a tight market supply and a rise in spot basis [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. International crude oil prices are stabilizing, providing cost support. However, due to macro - environmental factors, bullish confidence is insufficient, and prices are expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is rebounding from a low level. The strengthening of raw material prices and the easing of macro - sentiment support a short - term rebound, but poor terminal orders mean the long - term weakness is difficult to change [4]. - Sugar is in a volatile adjustment. In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but there are expectations of increased production in Brazil's new season. In the domestic market, current inventory supports prices, but future supply pressure may limit the upside of futures prices [5]. - Apples are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Near the May Day holiday, cold - storage shipments are accelerating, inventory is at a five - year low, and prices are rising. However, attention should be paid to the new - season apple's fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Key Information - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, including measures in employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, effective investment expansion, and creating a good development environment [7]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price rose to 4,570 yuan/ton. Before the end of April, the offer for main - port delivery and warehouse receipts was around a premium of 15 or a discount of 2 to 05. In May, the main - port delivery for 09 had a premium of 80 - 140 in transactions. The industry's supply - demand and cost support are good, but the basis weakened in the afternoon [9]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate in China reached 80.04%, a significant increase compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Some devices restarted as scheduled [11]. Cotton - On April 28, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On April 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,439 (- 54) sheets [10]. - In March 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased [10]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Argentina have generally cleared up. The picking progress in some main - producing areas is around 24% - 30%, and some areas have started processing, with centralized processing expected to begin in mid - May [10]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61.93%, with a slight decrease. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased, while that of coal - to - ethylene glycol increased [15]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a slight increase. There were both maintenance and restart of devices, and demand in other industries declined slightly [15]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the weekly short - fiber production in China was 161,400 tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate increased [15]. - As of the 24th, the average polymerization cost of polyester short - fiber decreased slightly, and the industry's cash flow decreased significantly, with profits shrinking [15]. Sugar - An Indian industry insider expects the country's sugar exports in the 2024/25 season to be 60 - 700,000 tons, lower than the allowed amount [15]. - As of the week of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [15]. - It is expected that in 2025, the sugar - beet planting area in Ukraine will decrease by 17% compared to 2024, leading to a significant decline in production and exports [15]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 3.0998 million tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a near - five - year low [16]. - In Shandong and Shaanxi apple - producing areas, different grades of apple prices are provided [16].

以下文章来源于智通财经APP ，作者智通编选 智通财经APP . 智通财经APP，连线全球资本市场。内容合作/内容举报请联系李先生： Tel: +86-15121009144 Email:zhitongcolumn@163.com 点击蓝字，关注我们 政治局会议敦促加快推进已获全国人大批准的 2 万亿元人民币刺激计划 的实施：此次会议首次提出要 "抓紧" 落实现有刺激政策，包括加快政府债券的发行和使用，以及在适当时机下调存款准备金率和利 与之前相比，A 股投资者情绪有所下降：摩根士丹利 A 股情绪指标（MSASI）的加权值和简单值分别下 降了 13 个百分点，至 70% 和 6%；截至 4 月 9 日，创业板、A 股和股指期货的日均成交额（ADT）分 别下降了 17%、11% 和 40%，而北向资金的日均成交额增长了 27%，沪深 300 相对强弱指标（RSI - 30）较前截止日期（4 月 9 日）提升了 6 个百分点。市场一致预期的盈利预测修正幅度仍为负值，但自 2024 年 11 月下旬以来，下行势头有所放缓。 率。这些措施，再加上银行间流动性的持续宽松，有望在 2025 年第二季度末使国内生产总值（G ...

重要的消息有哪些 1．4月21日，上交所在北京举办了针对央企集团的市值管理专场培训。此次培训重点围绕加强市值管理 制度工具的理解和运用展开，旨在为央企集团统筹规划市值管理路径，指导集团控股上市公司灵活运用 市值管理工具，提升集团整体市值管理水平。证监会上市司、国资委产权局有关工作人员进行授课，深 入解读市值管理相关制度。中介机构、上市公司等市场主体现场进行经验分享，从实操层面讲解股权激 励、投资者关系管理等市值管理工具的具体运用和经验体会。中国航空工业集团、中船集团、三大石油 石化集团、国投集团等近50家央企集团的百余名集团资本运作负责人参加培训。 2．国家外汇管理局4月22日发布数据显示，2025年一季度，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入 517亿美元。其中，货物贸易项下跨境资金净流入2063亿美元，同比增长1.2倍。2月至3月，外资净增持 境内债券269亿美元，同比增长84%，我国主要渠道跨境资金流动平稳有序，跨境资金呈现净流入。 （新华社） 3．记者获悉，多地正酝酿出台新一轮刺激政策。其中，4月22日，广东省省长王伟中主持召开省政府常 务会议，审议《广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案》，强调要加力扩围实 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ indicates a slightly bullish/bearish view with weak trading operability [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★☆★ - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ suggests a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ represents a clear bearish/bullish trend with an ongoing market movement [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆ Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. The cost side of carbon elements is declining, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, inventory, and demand. Different varieties have different trends, mainly including weak trends for steel, coke, and coking coal, and a sideways trend for iron ore [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market is weak today. Thread steel's apparent demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, but its sustainability is uncertain. Hot - rolled coil demand has improved, and inventory has continued to decline [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of thread steel has decreased slightly, and the inventory has been depleted faster. The production of hot - rolled coil has stabilized. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down [1] - **Downstream Industries**: Infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, and the decline in real - estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally but remains weak. Exports are affected by US tariff hikes, and domestic demand policies need to be strengthened [1] - **Outlook**: The market outlook is pessimistic, and the weak market situation is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro - policies [1] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore futures market is oscillating today [2] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, and domestic arrivals have decreased this period but remain above the annual average. Port inventory has been significantly depleted, and there is a seasonal growth expectation [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is resilient, steel mills have certain profits, and the resumption of hot - metal production has slowed but still has room for further growth [2] - **Outlook**: The overall trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillating, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - **Market Performance**: The coke price has oscillated downward today [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and coke production has also increased slightly after the first price increase. The overall inventory depletion is poor, and the inventory remains high [3] - **Outlook**: The coke futures premium has been compressed, and the price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [3] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal price has oscillated downward today [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Due to individual accidents and working - face switching, the production has been affected. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory is basically flat, and downstream purchases are for rigid demand. Imported Mongolian coal transactions are weak [5] - **Outlook**: The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production may reach its peak. The price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [5] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The silicon manganese price has declined today [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Manganese ore port inventory has been increasing, and the price of manganese ore has declined. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased slightly from a high level. The overall inventory has increased significantly [6] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds as the manganese ore inventory is increasing [6] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron price has declined today [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, export demand has decreased marginally, and metal magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased [7] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds due to its weak fundamentals [7]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Concerns about a global recession are easing, leading HSBC to favor copper and aluminum sectors in Asia [1] - HSBC expects significant short-term rebounds in prices of copper and aluminum commodities, supported by new stimulus policies in China [1][2] - The market's fears of a recession have been deemed overblown, with panic selling exceeding reasonable levels [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent data shows improved operating rates in downstream industries for copper and aluminum, indicating a seasonal demand recovery [2] - Tight supply conditions are confirmed by negative spot processing fees (TC/RC), and China's trade measures against the US will reduce scrap copper imports, impacting refined copper output [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - The operational capacity for aluminum is nearing a ceiling of 45 million tons, with limited room for new supply [2] - If demand increases significantly due to China's stimulus policies, a supply shortage may occur in the aluminum market [2] Group 4: Company Specifics - China Hongqiao - HSBC maintains a target price of HKD 17.10 for China Hongqiao, using a forward P/E ratio of 7.5x based on projected EPS of RMB 2.16 for 2025 [3] - The target P/E is significantly above the historical average since 2018, indicating potential upside of over 30% [3] - HSBC's "buy" rating for China Hongqiao is supported by strong fundamentals and an attractive dividend yield of approximately 10% [3]