Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with a slight downward shift in the central level. WTI remained around $60 per barrel. The core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus during the off - season, which drives oil prices gradually lower. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are the main disturbing drivers. Looking ahead to November, the oversupply of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, global crude oil inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices still have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and buy call options for position risk control. The recommended price ranges are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with WTI remaining around $60 per barrel. The off - season supply surplus is the core driver, while macro and geopolitical factors are the main disturbances [8][106]. - **Outlook**: In November, the supply surplus will be more prominent, global inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control. The price ranges to focus on are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, the second rate cut this year, and will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. Powell said the current interest rate is close to the neutral range, and it is "far from certain" whether to cut rates in December. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3.2% [8][25]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply** - OPEC+ may increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in December. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 barrels per day. In September 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [9][40]. - The on - the - way crude oil volume is rising, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [15]. - Russia's current crude oil export volume is about 5 million barrels per day, and its petroleum product export volume is about 2.37 million barrels per day. China and India are the major buyers. However, due to pressure from the West on India, Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases [17]. - **Demand** - The IEA's latest monthly report lowered the 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the 2026 growth at 700,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicted that the global oil demand increment in 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9]. - As of the week ending October 24, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.6713 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,600 tons. In September, the monthly crude oil import volume was 47.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 423.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.75% [61]. - **Inventory** - As of the week ending October 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 530,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels [68][70]. - As of the week ending October 31, China's port inventory was 28.982 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 327,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.649 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [72]. 4. Spreads and Positions - **Spreads** - The inter - market spread is mentioned, but no specific data is provided. The outer - market monthly spread remains low. As of October 30, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.37 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $0.72 per barrel. U.S. gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are at certain levels, and domestic refined oil cracking spreads have declined [86][92]. - **Positions** - Information on WTI, Brent positions, inner - market SC warehouse receipts, and total positions is provided, but no specific analysis is given. 5. Summary - The off - season supply surplus is the core driver of the oil market, and with the accumulation of inventories, oil prices are under downward pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with only natural gas rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1][2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of the oil market remains supply surplus, and oil prices are expected to decline. The fundamentals of most energy and chemical products are weak, with supply pressure and uncertain demand. However, natural gas may rise due to increased demand in the peak season [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. The current core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [1][9] - **Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in December. India's crude oil import increased in September. U.S. commercial crude and refined product inventories showed different trends. Geopolitical sanctions and macro - events provide some support, but overall, supply surplus dominates [9][10] - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and can add short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and it turns weak as the cost side declines [1][15] - **Logic**: The short - term geopolitical risk eases, and the cost side (crude oil) corrects. The supply decreases slightly, the demand side shows some resilience, and the port inventory increases [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and the supply is in a loose pattern [1][20] - **Logic**: Cost support weakens, social inventory decreases slightly, and the upper - middle stream inventory pressure is neutral. Import is expected to increase, and new device production will add to the supply. The demand peak season has insufficient restocking power [20] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. The basis weakens, and there is a high de - stocking pressure in the future [1][25] - **Logic**: The spot price lags behind the futures price increase. The upstream device maintenance increases, but the demand is at the end of the peak season. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish rebound. Low - valuation provides support, but there is an over - supply problem [1][29] - **Logic**: Low - valuation supports, and the export may increase due to India's policy window. New production capacity has been released, and attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can cut production. [29] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Participate in short - term rebounds with light positions. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Short - term supply - demand improvement is against the backdrop of pressured oil prices [1][31] - **Logic**: Supply - side devices at home and abroad continue to reduce load, and demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels. The cost - end oil price rebounds but has limited upside [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Focus on the PX range of [6520 - 6630] [32] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. There is a short - term rebound due to supply - demand improvement and market speculation [2][34] - **Logic**: New devices are about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and future device maintenance may increase. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in November [34] - **Strategy**: There is no obvious unilateral trend. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium - long term. Focus on the TA range of [4530 - 4600] [35] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but lack of upward drive [2][37] - **Logic**: Domestic devices reduce load, overseas devices increase load slightly. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices increase supply pressure. Terminal consumption improves slightly but lacks stability, and inventory may accumulate in November [37] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [38] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [2][41] - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply side has pressure with high import in October. The demand side shows slight improvement, and the cost support is weak and stable [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Arbitrage by MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2180 - 2230] [43] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but potential downside risk [2][45] - **Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as production resumes. Domestic agricultural demand improves slightly, and export is good. Inventory is at a high level, and cost support exists [45] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Try long positions lightly in the medium - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1615 - 1655] [47] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bullish. The demand side is expected to warm up as the temperature drops [5] - **Logic**: Geopolitical sanctions risks are released, the demand for heating increases as the temperature cools, and the supply is sufficient [5] - **Strategy**: Not mentioned [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have been reduced for the ninth time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 265 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively, effective from October 27 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The recent price adjustment will lower commuting and travel costs for the public, with a full tank of 92-octane gasoline costing 10.5 yuan less [1] - The overall trend for refined oil price adjustments this year has been characterized by "six increases, nine decreases, and six stabilities" [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The international oil price experienced fluctuations during the pricing cycle, initially declining due to a deteriorating trade environment and geopolitical tensions, followed by a rebound as positive signals emerged from China-U.S. trade talks [1] - As of October 24, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at -6.09%, indicating that despite a rebound, international oil prices remain low [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window for domestic refined oil is set for November 10, 2025 [2] - The oil market is currently balancing short-term geopolitical benefits against long-term supply surplus pressures, with ongoing sanctions against Russia and tensions in U.S.-Venezuela relations contributing to market volatility [2] - Despite some support for international oil prices from recent trade negotiations, the market still faces long-term downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and insufficient oil consumption growth [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating a likely end to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, and a potential for two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.0% and 2.1% for this year and next, respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.9% and 2.0% [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward movement in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $4,175 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to provide some support for oil prices [3] - However, the oil market faces significant pressure from supply-side factors, with US production rising to 13.62 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia reaching a new production high [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a more severe oversupply situation than previously anticipated, influenced by trade tensions between major economies [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $60 and support at $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment after a previous price surge, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 20-day moving average [6] - The focus is on the support level around $4.85 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has tested the 62-day moving average for support and is showing signs of a bullish trend [6] - Attention is on the support level around 47,228 [6]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is experiencing slow growth, with a forecasted increase of 3% in 2025, up by 0.2 percentage points from previous predictions [2] - The IMF has slightly upgraded the growth forecasts for the US, China, and the Eurozone, with expected growth rates of 1.9%, 4.8%, and 1% respectively [2] - The OECD has revised its 2025 global growth forecast down from 3.1% to 2.9%, and the US GDP growth forecast down from 2.2% to 1.6% [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of unchanged rates [3] - Following comments from Fed Chair Powell indicating an openness to rate cuts, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to over 90% [3] Group 3: Oil Supply and OPEC+ Policies - Global oil supply is expected to grow, with an increase of 2.6 million barrels per day projected for 2025, reaching a historical high [5] - OPEC+ has decided to gradually exit the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [6] - OPEC+ aims to balance production increases with oil price stability, having already restored 2.2 million barrels per day of production ahead of schedule [6][7] Group 4: US Oil Production Trends - US oil production has declined slightly to approximately 13.5 million barrels per day as of early September, primarily due to capital constraints and low oil prices [8] - The largest 20 shale oil producers have cut their capital expenditures for 2025 by about $1.8 billion, a decrease of 3% [8] - The number of active oil rigs in the US has decreased by 15% since the beginning of the year, limiting production growth [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Oil Supply - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding sanctions, have created uncertainties in global oil supply [9][10] - Russia's oil refining capacity has been reduced by 17% due to drone attacks and sanctions, affecting its export capabilities [9] - The stagnation of ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine poses further risks to Russian oil supply [10] Group 6: Global Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand growth forecasts have been frequently revised downwards, with EIA, IEA, and OPEC lowering their projections by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day [11] - The US is expected to see only a modest increase in oil consumption of 30,000 barrels per day this year, impacted by economic slowdowns and tariff policies [11] - Domestic oil consumption in China has also shown weakness, with gasoline and diesel consumption declining by 7.11% and 4% respectively in the first seven months of the year [12] Group 7: Market Surplus Expectations - Energy agencies have raised their expectations for oil market surplus, predicting a surplus of 2 million barrels per day in Q3 and exceeding 2 million barrels per day in Q4 [14] - The overall surplus for the year is expected to surpass 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a significant imbalance between supply and demand [14] - The combination of increasing supply from OPEC+ and weakening demand forecasts suggests that the oil market will face ongoing surplus pressures [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia, causing market concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although the actual export of Russian crude oil has decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell. From a macro perspective, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, while US commercial inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily News - A shale oil giant, Diamondback Energy, warned of an oversupply of crude oil. It will cut $100 million in capital expenditure, lower its production guidance, and postpone some fracturing operations. The company's CEO said that the growth of global crude oil supply in the second half of this year cannot be ignored. The company aims to keep oil production flat while cutting costs. The US domestic crude oil drilling activity has decreased by 12% and reached the lowest level in nearly four years. [3] - OPEC's crude oil production remained stable last month. Saudi Arabia's production cut of 220,000 barrels per day offset part of the impact of the UAE's production increase of 100,000 barrels per day. OPEC's average daily production in July was 28.31 million barrels, basically the same as the previous month. [4] - An analyst said that OPEC + will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September, which is in line with market expectations. Although the additional supply may put pressure on prices, OPEC +'s wait - and - see stance may limit the downside risk. A weaker - than - expected US employment report has raised concerns about the economy, which is a negative factor for oil. On the other hand, the potential interruption of Russian crude oil transportation may support the market. [4] 2. Weekly View - This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increased. Trump's secondary tariff warning to Russia led to concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [5] - After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell, with Brent crude oil falling below the $70 per barrel mark. [5] - Macroscopically, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September due to the poor July non - farm payrolls data. [5] - Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] 3. EIA Report - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day. [11] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [11] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [11] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year. [11] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [11] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [11]

Core Viewpoint - Diamondback Energy warns of a significant influx of crude oil supply into the global market in the coming months, leading to a reduction in capital expenditures and a downward revision of production guidance [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Diamondback Energy plans to cut capital expenditures by $100 million and postpone some fracking operations [1] - The company is preparing for the remainder of 2025 by reducing spending while maintaining stable oil production levels [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The CEO, Van't Hoff, highlighted that the expected growth in global crude oil supply in the second half of the year is substantial [1] - In May, Diamondback indicated that U.S. shale oil production had peaked, and since then, domestic crude oil drilling activity has decreased by 12%, reaching the lowest level in nearly four years [1]