Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical conflicts stimulate risk - aversion, but the increase in Venezuelan crude oil production will put long - term pressure on the crude oil fundamentals. The plasticizing sector rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The supply pressure of polyolefin has increased, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. Considering the oversupply in the crude oil market and the inventory digestion cycle, the rebound should be treated bearishly [6] Group 4: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastics, L2601 closed at 6240 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; L2605 closed at 6449 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; L2609 closed at 6496 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. For PP, PP2601 closed at 6150 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; PP2605 closed at 6330 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; PP2609 closed at 6355 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [5] Group 5: Industry News - On January 5, 2026, the inventory of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 590,000 tons - PE market prices partially declined. LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, in East China 6380 - 6800 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6800 yuan/ton - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5730 - 5820 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene was good, and the market trading atmosphere was positive - The PP market showed a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China wire drawing were 6080 - 6200 yuan/ton, in East China 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and in South China 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory and its year - on - year change, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The report believes that the crude oil market is dominated by supply - demand surplus, and the price of domestic crude oil futures is expected to run weakly with a volatile trend. Although geopolitical risks may drive up oil prices, the long - term logic of weak supply - demand fundamentals will suppress oil prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "oscillating", and the short - term downward trend of domestic crude oil futures still exists [1][5] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "oscillating" [1][5] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "weak", with a reference view of "running weakly" [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factor**: During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and the US president's threat to other South American countries, which may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5] - **Negative Factor**: The long - term logic of the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the main reason for the suppression of oil prices. The global supply surplus concern persists, and the pessimistic sentiment among funds remains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has led to fluctuations in the oil market, with initial price increases followed by declines due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply issues [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Market Reactions - Following Maduro's capture, U.S. crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to a peak of $57.73 per gallon, while Brent crude reached $61.24 per gallon before both experienced declines [1]. - As of 13:40 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil fell by 0.44% to $57.07, and Brent crude decreased by 0.36% to $60.53 [1]. Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production and Exports - Venezuela's oil exports have plummeted to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions, with the country’s oil production being significantly affected, leading to a near saturation of domestic storage facilities [2][3]. - The total amount of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea has exceeded 17 million barrels, with daily production dropping from approximately 1.1 million barrels in November to about 500,000 barrels in December [3]. Group 3: Global Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which is nearly one-fifth of the global total [3]. - Despite the short-term potential for price spikes due to geopolitical factors, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to global economic weakness and an oversupply of oil [4]. Group 4: Implications for the Chemical Industry - The disruption in Venezuelan oil supply, particularly of the Merey crude, is expected to lead to shortages in asphalt production, impacting downstream industries such as road construction [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may also affect methanol supplies to China, as Venezuela's exports are crucial for the region's methanol production [5]. - Rising oil prices are likely to increase costs across the chemical supply chain, affecting the pricing of various downstream products [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the post - holiday domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Although there are geopolitical factors driving up prices, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is a long - term drag on prices [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The short - term view for crude oil 2602 is "volatile" [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The medium - term view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "volatile" [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2602 and SC crude oil is "moderately strong" [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factors**: During the New Year's Day holiday, the US Delta Force raided the capital of Venezuela and kidnapped President Maduro and his wife, and President Trump threatened other South American countries, which led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks and may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term logic that weighs down oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. There are still concerns about global supply glut, which keeps the pessimistic sentiment of funds lingering [5].

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 美国下调13家意大利意面出口商拟议关税税率 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2026年1月1日，美国商务部表示，已下调对13家意大利意面出口商的拟议关 税税率。此前，这些企业一度面临最高92%的关税。 此次下调意面关税，正值美方宣布推迟对部分进口家具加征关税之际。 特朗普签署公告，将软体家具、橱柜和浴室柜关税上调措施推迟1年 环球网援引路透社、彭博社报道，白宫表示，特朗普当地时间2025年12月31日签署公告，将软体家具、 橱柜和浴室柜的关税上调措施再推迟1年。 彭博社称，在美国民众对物价水平不满情绪持续升温背景下，特朗普推迟上述上调计划，放缓了其征税 步伐。根据白宫发布的文件，原定于周四（2026年1月1日）生效的更高关税措施，将推迟至2027年1月1 日生效。 据报道，依据2025年9月美国发布的一项公告，特朗普此前宣布自2026年1月1日起，将"某些软垫木质产 品"关税从25%提高至30%，将橱柜和浴室柜的关税从25%提高至50%。 美军袭击两艘所谓"从事毒品走私活动的船只"，特朗普称美军在委内瑞拉行动中摧毁一大型设施 据央视新闻消息，美军南方司令部当地时间12月31日在社交媒体上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry shows a continued differentiation. The polyester industry chain is in a seasonal off - peak, while the styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall [2]. - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, and liquid chemical inventories are high, so the chemical industry's rebound will be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures are in a Christmas holiday. Domestic SC has been relatively strong recently, and its near - end structure has turned back to Back. Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Cold snaps in China may boost coal demand [1]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester and weaving开工 continue to decline. PTA开工 increases by 0.7% month - on - month, and ethylene glycol开工 increases by 0.2% month - on - month. The industry chain remains relatively healthy [2]. - PTA: The market is testing the downstream's ability to bear low processing fees. Prices follow costs to oscillate at high levels, and processing fees remain within a range. Consider going long on the TA05 contract on pullbacks and taking partial profits around 5100 - 5200. Also, consider a positive spread trade on TA05 - 09 [14][15]. - Short - fiber: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits. Prices follow the upstream to oscillate strongly, and processing fees are under short - term pressure [24][25]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw material costs support prices. The absolute value follows raw materials to fluctuate, and processing fees are slightly under pressure [26]. 3.2.2 Styrene Industry Chain - The styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Its own开工 increases by 2.25% month - on - month, and downstream开工 also rises, especially the weekly开工 of PS increases by 4.1% [2]. - Styrene: Exports affect the market, and it is strong intraday. It is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in destocking. Exports can stimulate short - term rebounds [19][20]. 3.2.3 Polyolefin Industry Chain - Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall. A 500,000 - ton full - density plant in South China has started trial production, increasing pressure on PE. Low - price promotions by upstream suppliers have led to a decline in the overall inventory of production enterprises in the industry chain [2]. - PP: Basis support is limited, and it oscillates. The supply - demand pattern remains under short - term pressure [35]. - LLDPE: Maintenance needs time to increase, and it oscillates. The demand is gradually entering the off - peak season [34]. 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating, and it continues to oscillate. The market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is weakening. Pay attention to the implementation of downstream production cuts [3]. - **Asphalt**: The US is containing Venezuela without taking direct action. Its futures price oscillates higher. The absolute price is over - estimated [9]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. The demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [9]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, but its current valuation is low [9]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market remains stable. It is generally considered to oscillate [3][29][30]. - **Urea**: Demand follows up, and sentiment is boosted. The price rises and then oscillates. Supply pressure persists, and demand support may not be long - lasting [30][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and there is no continuous positive news. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains large [21][22]. - **PX**: Short - term sentiment fermentation takes time. It remains high in China, but downstream negative feedback may increase as the off - peak season deepens [13]. - **PVC**: Overseas production capacity is exiting, and it is supported again. Although supply has improved marginally, the rebound space may be limited [37][38]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment has weakened, and it oscillates downward. The medium - term fundamental outlook is poor, but the valuation is low [39][40]. 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring 3.4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 being 0.44 with a change of - 0.07, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 52 with a change of 30 [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt's basis is - 75 with a change of 1, and its warehouse receipts are 54,100 [43]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 218 with a change of - 3 [45]. 3.4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part. 3.5 Index Data - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index is 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index is 2254.18, down 0.17% [287]. - The energy index on December 25, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.23%, a 5 - day increase of 3.15%, a 1 - month decline of 0.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.00% [289].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to experience a significant decline, marking a potential "three consecutive drops" and reaching a new low for the year 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The recent pricing cycle has seen a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil and increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure [3]. - The market's focus on potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has led to a decrease in risk premiums, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - An increase in U.S. crude oil production expectations has further exacerbated the decline in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - As of December 22, 2025, the domestic fuel price adjustment will see a reduction of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel [8]. - Throughout 2025, the domestic retail fuel prices have undergone 25 adjustment windows, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of price freezes, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [8][9]. - The retail prices for various fuel types have been adjusted as follows: 92 gasoline at 6.82 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.25 yuan/liter, 98 gasoline at 9.25 yuan/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.46 yuan/liter, reflecting a decrease of 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [9]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle will continue to see negative fluctuations, with a potential further decrease of around 40 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel in the upcoming adjustment period [9]. - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for January 6, 2026, with expectations of continued low oil price volatility in the short term [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 8.6 million barrels per day, and for 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 8.3 million barrels per day [2] - The IEA attributes the improved demand outlook to a better macroeconomic environment and the resolution of tariff-related concerns, which had previously hindered oil consumption [2][3] - The agency expects a slight narrowing of the global oil supply surplus in 2026, projecting it at 3.84 million barrels per day, down from the previous estimate of 4.09 million barrels per day [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day next year, a reduction from the earlier forecast of 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA has lowered its oil production forecasts for OPEC+ for 2025 and 2026 due to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Venezuela [4] - In November, global oil supply decreased by 610,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, primarily due to reduced output from sanctioned countries [5] Group 3: Regional Insights - The IEA noted that the increase in oil production from the Americas (including the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina) has led to stable supply expectations for non-OPEC+ producers over the next two years [6] - The report highlights that nearly all of the demand growth in 2025 will come from non-OECD countries, which are more sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - The current macro environment is unpredictable, resembling a coin toss, with the direction of the dollar dependent on upcoming data from Washington and Nvidia's earnings report acting as a guiding light for risk assets [1][3] - The forex market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting confirmation of policy signals, with the dollar's trading pattern resembling a reasonably priced option [3][5] - Oil prices have stabilized as the Novorossiysk port in Russia resumes operations, leading to a decrease in geopolitical and supply shock premiums, with WTI returning to $59 per barrel [4][5] Group 2 - Gold is experiencing a consolidation phase, hovering below $4,100 per ounce, with structural demand from central bank purchases and deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed markets providing support [5] - The euro is also in a wait-and-see mode, with the EU Commission's autumn forecast unlikely to show significant upward revisions, while the upcoming PMI data could be a turning point for the euro [5][6] - The market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with key events such as Nvidia's earnings, non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes expected to influence market movements [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil price at $64.39 per barrel (up 1.19%) and WTI at $59.39 per barrel (down 0.75%) as of November 14, 2025 [2][19] - The oil and petrochemical sector outperformed the market, with a 2.29% increase compared to a 1.08% decline in the CSI 300 index [10] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 210.63% since 2022, indicating strong growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, increasing by $0.76 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, decreasing by $0.45 per barrel [2][19] Offshore Drilling Services - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 370, an increase of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 128 [21] Oil Supply - As of November 7, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [35] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 417, with an increase of 3 rigs [35] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.973 million barrels per day, an increase of 717,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40% [47] Oil Inventory - As of November 7, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 838 million barrels, an increase of 7.211 million barrels [55]