Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - For stainless steel, short - term factors include price increases by Indonesian and Chinese steel mills, a flat term structure, and stable raw material prices and production schedules, with a support level at 12,500 - 12,900 yuan. The future market change depends on the transfer of the main position to the 2601 contract [1]. - For沪镍, in the short - term, there is doubt about the September interest - rate cut and the recent decline with increased positions. In the long - term, it focuses on whether the anti - involution market can improve the fundamentals. The support level is 118,000 - 120,000 yuan [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The market is strengthening, and the discount range is expanding [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The inventory of refined nickel has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts are decreasing [9][10][20]. - **Production Profit**: The overall production profit has recovered, and some steel - mill processes still have profits [12]. - **Production and Export**: Although the production in July decreased, it remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong [16]. 2. Ferronickel - **Price**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the high - nickel ferronickel market price is 920 - 935 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan from last week [27]. - **Production Profit**: Overseas imported ferronickel remains at a high level. Domestic ferronickel steel mills are under pressure from upstream and downstream, with full - scale losses in immediate profits. The profit of Indonesian ferronickel has also decreased. From January to July 2025, China's total ferronickel imports were 6.393 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.244 million tons or 24.2% [30]. 3. Nickel Intermediate Products - **Price**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost of nickel ore has weakened. The high - nickel ferronickel market price has increased [27]. - **Production Profit**: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide and nickel beans has increased, and the loss of immediate profit has intensified [38]. - **Production**: The production of nickel sulfate, Indonesian MHP, and high - ice nickel is presented in the report. - **Import Volume**: The import volumes of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, high - ice nickel, and nickel matte are shown in the report. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Stainless - Steel Production**: The report provides data on China's and Indonesia's stainless - steel production, capacity, import, export, and apparent consumption from 2018 to 2024, as well as global stainless - steel production [50]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply**: Data on China's primary nickel supply, including pure nickel production, net import, ferronickel production, net import, nickel - sulfate production, net import, and nickel - intermediate product net import, are given [50].

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have shown a strong upward trend, breaking the 3700-point mark and reaching a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - Margin trading balances have also surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in investor confidence [1] - Daily trading volumes have consistently exceeded 2 trillion yuan, peaking at 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting active trading behavior among investors [1] Investor Sentiment - The number of new stock accounts opened in July reached 2 million, and the issuance scale of new equity funds has generally exceeded 1 billion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in the market [1] - The current market conditions support the notion of a bull market, with investor confidence gradually recovering [1] Economic Context - The current market rally is expected to differ from the rapid bull market of 2015, with a focus on a slow and steady growth trajectory over the next 2-3 years [2] - The widening gap between GDP growth and bond yields, along with higher dividend yields from stocks compared to bonds, indicates increasing attractiveness of the capital market [2] - Institutional investors are shifting from bonds to equities, as evidenced by a significant drop in the bond market while the equity market rises [2] Foreign Investment - Foreign capital inflow into the domestic market reached 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, driven by lower valuations in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks compared to the US market [3] - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could further enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese capital market [3] Monetary Policy - The central bank is implementing low-interest and liquidity policies to support economic recovery, although July saw a negative growth in new RMB loans, indicating a lack of investor confidence [4] - The effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating economic growth may be limited in a slowing economy, necessitating a focus on boosting capital market performance to enhance consumer spending [4] Industry Trends - Traditional industries are facing overcapacity issues, necessitating a shift towards "de-involution" and capacity reduction to improve profitability [5] - The "AI + manufacturing" initiative in Shanghai is expected to benefit sectors such as humanoid robots and AI applications in traditional industries [5] - The humanoid robot sector is gaining investor attention, with expectations for significant growth and potential to replicate the success seen in the electric vehicle industry [6] Stock Market Dynamics - The current bull market is likely to benefit brokerage stocks, which typically perform well during such periods due to increased trading volumes and margin trading activities [6] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index is approximately 14 times earnings, suggesting room for growth as the market is still in the early stages of a bull market [7] - Low valuation blue-chip stocks, particularly in traditional industries, may see valuation recovery opportunities as the market continues to evolve [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rotation in the anti-involution trend, with funds focusing on policy directions [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01%, indicating mixed performance among sectors [2] - Southbound funds saw a net outflow of HKD 14.682 billion, with Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart being the most actively traded stocks [2][4] Group 2: Company Analysis - Pop Mart - Pop Mart reported a revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.88 billion for the first half of 2025, with adjusted net profit rising by 362.8% to RMB 4.71 billion [7][9] - The company's gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales and a decrease in outsourced products [7] - Pop Mart's self-owned IP products accounted for 99.1% of sales, with significant contributions from major IPs like THE MONSTERS and MOLLY [9] Group 3: Regional Performance - Revenue from the Chinese region reached RMB 8.28 billion, up 135.2%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a 257.8% increase to RMB 2.85 billion [9] - The Americas experienced a remarkable growth of 1,140% in revenue, totaling RMB 2.26 billion, driven by a 744.3% increase in offline sales [9] - All regions demonstrated strong growth, with online and offline sales both contributing significantly [9] Group 4: Product Category Performance - Plush products generated RMB 6.14 billion in revenue, marking a 1,280% increase, while figurines achieved RMB 5.18 billion, up 94.8% [9] - The diversification of product categories is evident, with the plush segment surpassing figurines for the first time [9] - The company continues to launch popular products across various categories, enhancing its market presence [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent performance of both US and Chinese stock markets has been impressive, with US stocks reaching historical highs and A-shares approaching the 3700-point mark, driven by ample liquidity and improved profit expectations [2][6] - Goldman Sachs noted that A-shares were the second-largest market for capital inflows on August 13, indicating strong interest from international investors [6][8] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have set new historical highs, primarily driven by large-cap technology stocks, with Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft showing significant year-to-date gains of approximately 33.5%, 32.5%, and 22.8% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US inflation report showed a mild increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, contributing to a positive market sentiment [4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts have led to a rally in lower-quality stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq by nearly 5% in the same week [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a growing interest from foreign investors in the Chinese market, with net inflows of $1.2 billion in June and $2.7 billion in July, indicating a shift towards more significant allocations in Chinese equities [9][10] - Morgan Stanley predicts stronger capital inflows into Chinese stocks in the latter half of the year, driven by structural improvements in the market and a shift towards high-quality large-cap companies [9][10] Group 4: Sector Performance - The A-share market's rally has been supported by strong trading activity, with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion yuan on August 13, the highest since February [6] - Key sectors attracting investment include healthcare and automotive, while hardware and energy sectors have seen less selling pressure [6][9]

Group 1 - The recent surge in both US and Chinese stock markets has surprised global traders, with US stocks reaching historical highs and A-shares approaching the 3700-point mark, driven by ample liquidity and improved profit expectations [1][6] - Goldman Sachs noted that A-shares were the second-largest market for capital inflows on August 13, indicating a growing interest from international investors despite historically low allocations to Chinese equities [1][6] - The US stock market's rally has been primarily led by technology giants, with significant year-to-date gains for companies like Nvidia (33.5%), Meta (32.5%), and Microsoft (22.8%), while the overall concentration of gains remains high [2][3] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the US tech giants has exceeded $18 trillion, surpassing the annual GDP of all countries except the US and China, with Nvidia becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion valuation [3] - A recent mild inflation report has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the US stock market, with the July CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [3][4] - The Russell 2000 index has outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicating a "junk rally" as lower-quality stocks have seen significant gains amid a more positive macroeconomic outlook [4] Group 3 - A-shares have shown a strong upward trend, supported by actual trading activity, with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion yuan on August 13, the highest since February [6] - Morgan Stanley reported that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index have been the best-performing global indices over the past year, with absolute returns of 54% and 48%, respectively [6] - The "anti-involution" movement in China is boosting market sentiment, with foreign investors focusing on profit growth and showing interest in sectors with higher margins [8] Group 4 - Foreign long-term investors have begun to increase their allocations to Chinese stocks, with net inflows of $1.2 billion in June and $2.7 billion in July, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [8] - Structural improvements in the Chinese stock market, driven by regulatory reforms and corporate governance enhancements, are expected to attract more foreign capital [8] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about the rapid rise of small-cap stocks, which have increased over 50% since early April, potentially leading to a market correction [9]

Group 1 - A-shares have become the second-largest market for capital inflow as of August 13, with a notable increase in trading activity and a strong upward trend, approaching the 3700-point mark [1][5] - The recent rally in A-shares is supported by ample liquidity, expectations of improved profitability due to "anti-involution" measures, and a significant increase in trading volume, with a transaction amount of 2.1 trillion yuan on August 13, the highest since February [5][6] - Morgan Stanley has shifted its preference from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have outperformed the Hang Seng Index since late June [6] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market, particularly driven by technology giants, has seen significant gains, with Nvidia up approximately 33.5% and Meta up about 32.5% year-to-date, while the overall concentration of gains is at a historically high level [2][3] - The total market capitalization of the U.S. tech giants has exceeded $18 trillion, surpassing the annual GDP of all countries except the U.S. and China, with Nvidia becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap [3] - The recent mild inflation report in the U.S. has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the stock market, with the CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [3][4] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" campaign in China is positively influencing market sentiment, with foreign investors focusing on profitability growth despite previous low margins due to intense competition [7] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a stronger inflow of foreign capital into Chinese stocks in the latter half of the year, driven by structural improvements in the market and a shift towards high-quality large tech and financial companies [7][8] - The small-cap stocks have seen significant gains, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index rising over 50% since early April, leading to concerns about potential adjustments due to overvaluation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak, and domestic demand recovery is limited after excluding seasonal summer effects. The increase in July's core CPI is mainly supported by the summer travel boom and high gold prices. The divergence between PPI production and living materials shows that the policy effects of the national unified market construction are concentrated in upstream industries, and the ineffective recovery of domestic demand restricts PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the industrial price increase and its price transmission to downstream industries depend on the improvement of terminal demand. Given the uncertainty in the trade environment, a loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize domestic demand [4][29]. - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment is limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether it can break through the previous low depends on other market performances and fundamental pressures. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market is mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicates slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remains unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Overall CPI Situation**: In July, CPI continued to be low, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing down by 0.1 percentage points to 0%. The month - on - month growth rate was 0.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.4% month - on - month. The growth of core CPI was mainly due to the summer travel demand and high gold prices. After excluding the "other goods and services" item affected by gold prices, the overall price level was still weak [1][2]. - **Non - food CPI**: In July, non - food CPI increased by 0.3% year - on - year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.5% month - on - month. The rise in summer service prices was the main reason, with service prices increasing by 0.6% month - on - month, contributing more than 60% to the CPI increase [2]. - **Food CPI**: In July, food CPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices was the main reason for the expanding decline in food CPI. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased month - on - month [13]. PPI Analysis - **Overall PPI Situation**: In July, PPI showed a lagging performance, with a year - on - year decline of 3.6%, the same as the previous month. The decline in the year - on - year and month - on - month production materials PPI narrowed slightly. The prices of most domestic manufacturing raw materials decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties. The prices of industries with high export proportions were under increasing downward pressure, but the month - on - month decline in many industries' prices converged under the influence of the national unified market construction [1][3][23]. - **Production and Living Materials PPI**: In July, the production materials PPI decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The living materials PPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [23][24]. Bond Market Analysis - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment was limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market was mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicated slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remained unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the commodity market, particularly focusing on the recent surge and subsequent crash in prices, highlighting the impact on traders and investment firms in Hangzhou [6][8][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a rapid increase in prices, with polysilicon rising over 70% in a month and coking coal hitting a rare five consecutive limit-up days [6][7]. - Following the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on coking coal on July 25, prices plummeted, leading to significant losses for many traders and investment products [7][8]. - The volatility resulted in substantial losses for various asset management products, with some firms reporting losses exceeding 6% [8][12]. Group 2: Hangzhou Trading Community - The Hangzhou trading community, known for its strong commodity trading culture, includes major players such as trade companies and the Yong'an system, which are sensitive to industrial cycles [10][11]. - The article describes the competitive landscape of futures companies in Hangzhou, emphasizing the influence of Yong'an Futures and its training approach for research personnel [12][13]. - Despite their expertise, the Hangzhou traders were caught off guard by the rapid market fluctuations, leading to a collective underestimation of the power of policy and market sentiment [13][20]. Group 3: Economic Context - The current market environment differs significantly from previous supply-side reforms, with unclear demand sources and a focus on downstream private enterprises [15][16]. - Analysts express confusion over the price increases in coking coal and soda ash, citing a lack of concrete execution details and a disconnect between market sentiment and actual demand [16][17]. - The article highlights the challenges of balancing production capacity governance with maintaining reasonable output and effective demand in the current economic climate [17][18]. Group 4: Emotional Trading and Market Reactions - The article notes that emotional trading has taken precedence over fundamental analysis, with traders reacting to market rumors and speculative news rather than solid data [18][19]. - The extreme volatility in coking coal trading, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price, exemplifies the chaotic nature of the current market [19][20]. - The Hangzhou trading community, traditionally grounded in industry knowledge, struggles to adapt to the emotionally driven trading environment, leading to substantial financial risks [20][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the key to future market dynamics will be whether the expectations of demand improvement can translate into reality, setting the stage for a critical confrontation between bullish and bearish sentiments [27][28].

8月以来，工业品期货价格纷纷回落，一度火热的"反内卷行情"来去匆匆。 工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 从普涨到分化，投机资金退潮 整体看来，工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 其中，焦煤期货作为此轮"反内卷行情"的领涨品种，在7月因国家能源局煤矿超产核查政策预期一度单 周暴涨35%，主力合约最高触及1318元/吨。进入8月后，随着政策细则未达市场预期，叠加焦煤供需格 局宽松，价格快速回落至1150元/吨附近。 但在8月5日尾盘，焦煤期货主力合约由跌转涨，收报1182元/吨，涨6.9%。远月5个合约全部涨停。 从盘后持仓数据看，资金流向上，焦煤期货主力合约持仓量为52.6万手，较前一交易日增加3.8万手。 截至8月5日收盘，碳酸锂期货收报6.78万元/吨，较7月25日触及的7.92万元/吨高点，区间跌幅达 16.8%。 多晶硅、焦煤等前期领涨品种也震荡回落，截至8月1日当周，多晶硅期货主力合约和焦煤期货主力合约 周累计跌幅分别为3.6%和17.1%。 经过前期的大涨，工业品期货整体维持高位震荡，这轮由政策预期与资金炒 ...