Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a narrow fluctuation trend, with the China Securities Commodity Index showing a slight annual increase of 0.20% and a volatility of 10.27% [1] Market Overview - The commodity market experienced increased volatility due to frequent macro events, with weak overall demand impacting industrial products more significantly than agricultural products [2] - Three major macro "black swan" events occurred in the first half of 2025, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, a global tariff storm, and conflicts in the Middle East, all contributing to market fluctuations [2] Performance Characteristics - There was a clear divergence between agricultural and industrial products, with agricultural prices being more stable and influenced by supply-side changes, while industrial prices were more sensitive to demand fluctuations [3] - Different types of events caused further differentiation within the commodity market, with industrial products reacting strongly to demand-side shocks while agricultural products remained relatively stable [3] Index Returns Attribution 1. **Term Structure Contribution** - The term structure yield for the first half of 2025 was 1.07%, showing a slight increase from 2024, indicating a potential improvement in global economic growth [6] 2. **Sector Contribution** - Agricultural products experienced slight price increases with lower volatility, while industrial products faced larger price declines and fluctuations, reflecting insufficient global demand [7] 3. **Product Contribution** - Precious metals and agricultural products contributed positively to returns, while black metals and energy chemicals generally contributed negatively [8] Macro Indicators 1. **Macro Level** - The China Securities Commodity Index serves as an important reference for macroeconomic conditions, showing a strong correlation with PPI, which may lead by about two months [9] 2. **Micro Level** - Sub-sector indices show a high correlation with the profit totals of corresponding industries, providing timely insights for business decision-making [12] Comparative Analysis - The China Securities Commodity Index demonstrates a clear advantage in terms of risk and return compared to major overseas commodity indices, making it an attractive option for domestic and international investors [18] - The correlation between the China Securities Commodity Index and major overseas indices is relatively low, indicating a unique positioning in the market [21]

市场分析认为，"双硅"仍旧面临供应充足、行业库存尚待消纳的弱势基本面，短期价格拉涨受到情绪影响较为明显。 但与此同时，焦煤的政策端利多更为确定，加上焦炭二轮、三轮现货价格提涨预期强烈，双焦价格上涨受到的基本面支撑更为明确。展望后市，部分机构观 点认为，焦煤在前期明显超跌的状态下，随着供应端收紧预期升温、需求端稳增长政策持续推出，供给、需求预期共振有望驱动板块迎来新一轮上涨机会。 另外，"反内卷"也逐渐扩散至农产品板块。当日受一则"农业农村部畜牧兽医局拟召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会"的消息影响，生猪市场产能收缩预期 升温，期价早盘大幅拉涨，盘中一度涨超5%，远月合约更是触及涨停。不过，机构提示，季节性影响下当前对猪肉消费积极性不足，供大于求的迹象依然 明显，这也令近期猪价上行受限。 其他品种方面，贵金属稳步走高，23日盘中在海外银价冲高的背景下，沪银主力合约再创上市以来新高。 新华财经北京7月23日电 国内商品期货市场7月23日涨跌互现，其中焦煤主力合约收盘涨停，涨幅11.00%；多晶硅主力合约涨超5%；焦炭主力合约涨超3%； 生猪、红枣、纸浆、菜粕、沪银、烧碱主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，碳酸锂主力合约 ...

新华财经北京7月14日电（郭洲洋、张瑶）国内商品期货市场7月14日涨跌互现，其中碳酸锂、工业硅主力合约涨超3%；SC原油、沪银主力合约涨超2%； LU、纯碱、短纤、焦煤、菜粕、玻璃、焦炭、沥青、沪金、烧碱主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，红枣主力合约跌超2%；沪铝主力合约跌超1%。 截至14日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1412.44点，较前一交易日上涨8.31点，涨幅0.59%；中证商品期货指数收报1958.91点，较前一交易日上涨 12.19点，涨幅0.63%。 红枣大跌超2% 沪铝、铝合金回落 7月14日，红枣主力合约领跌商品市场，跌幅2.03%。目前市场关注点在产区天气情况，此前在市场情绪支撑下红枣主力合约已连续三个交易日收涨，但目 前来看，产区天气扰动有限，且下游消费需求缺乏提振，红枣盘面失去上行驱动。南华期货表示，当前下游处于消费淡季，购销氛围较为清淡，陈枣供应充 足，随着关键坐果期的到来，市场焦点逐渐向新季红枣转移，目前灰枣尚处于生理落果阶段，需关注新枣坐果情况，或仍存在天气炒作的可能，但同时陈枣 的高库存或压制盘面，若价格中枢上移，红枣仓单或加速注册，使得红枣价格承压运行。 沪铝及铝合金今 ...

Group 1 - Coking coal prices increased by over 3%, with the main contract rising by 3.34% and coking coal demand supported by active procurement from steel mills and traders [2] - Glass futures rose by 2.16%, driven by improved market sentiment and a decrease in inventory, although the fundamental support remains weak [2] - International silver prices strengthened, leading to a significant increase in Shanghai silver, which reached a new high since its listing, closing up by 1.74% [3] Group 2 - Alumina futures experienced a decline of over 2%, attributed to an oversupply situation, with weekly production exceeding 1.7 million tons and a return to historical high capacity utilization [4] - The oil market showed volatility following OPEC+'s consideration to pause further production increases, with oil prices initially rising before experiencing a significant drop [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, indicating a tightening market despite the anticipated oversupply [5][7]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on June 26 saw more gains than losses, with coking coal and polysilicon leading the rise, both increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1376.07 points, up 5.40 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.82 points, up 7.49 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices rebounded over 3% on June 26, driven by improved spot trading and a week-on-week increase in steel production [2] - Since hitting a multi-year low of 709 yuan/ton in early June, coking coal prices have rebounded by over 100 yuan in less than a month [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts believe the market's supply-demand imbalance has not been resolved, limiting the potential for significant price increases [2] Group 3: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon and industrial silicon both saw significant rebounds, closing up over 3% and 2% respectively, ranking second and third in daily gains [3] - Although the oversupply situation for industrial silicon and polysilicon remains, some regional production bottlenecks and slight increases in downstream production have led to short-term marginal improvements [3] - Analysts caution that the fundamental pressures of inventory accumulation and weak demand will limit the rebound potential for polysilicon and may negatively impact industrial silicon [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - The metals sector experienced a collective rebound, with nickel rising over 2%, while tin, silver, aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate all increased by over 1% [4] Group 5: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal contracts saw significant declines, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal down 2.67% and 2.43% respectively [5] - The decline in soybean meal prices is attributed to supply pressures and a continued accumulation of inventory in domestic oil mills [5] - Analysts expect soybean meal prices to face heavy pressure in the short term, while rapeseed meal may gradually recover in the medium to long term due to reduced import volumes [5] Group 6: Crude Oil Market - SC crude oil contracts fell by 1.14%, continuing a weak trend, although international oil prices saw a slight increase due to a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories [6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - Despite short-term price support from tight inventories and seasonal demand, the overall outlook for crude oil remains weak due to ongoing trade uncertainties and strong supply from OPEC+ [6]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]

尿素上涨乏力多晶硅06合约收跌 5月14日，市场氛围回暖，商品仅有少数品种收跌，其中尿素主力合约以0.89%的跌幅领跌。目前有部 分地区尿素装置停产检修，整体开工负荷小幅下降，而农需也出现好转，基本面对尿素支撑较稳；但受 到市场消息的影响，尿素上涨趋势受阻。展望后市，光大期货表示，尿素出口消息扰动仍存，期货市场 日内情绪或有回落但后续不确定性仍存，阶段性行情以高位盘整为主。关注尿素出口相关细则及库存数 据。 多晶硅今日仅06合约收跌，远月合约全线收涨，受硅料企业产能出清消息的影响，多晶硅远月合约表现 偏强，但主力06合约仍在计价弱现实。据南华期货分析，工业硅整体依旧处于落后产能出清的产业周 期。当前库存依旧处于相对高位，渠道库存充裕压制价格上涨。目前多晶硅PS2506合约处于低仓单和 高持仓量的矛盾中，叠加市场消息提振，市场资金博弈较大，短期或有反弹迹象，但全年来看空间较为 有限。若多晶硅企业达成协议，则对工业硅需求也有一定压制，后续持续关注工业硅复产和多晶硅减产 情况。 集运欧线涨停、苯乙烯再涨超4% 20个品种收盘涨超2% 贸易紧张担忧暂时缓解的利多效应继续发酵，航运、苯乙烯等近期强势品种进一步扩大反弹。 ...

新华财经北京5月13日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场5月13日涨跌互现，其中苯乙烯主力合约 收涨停，涨幅5.99%；BR橡胶、集运欧线主力合约涨超5%；对二甲苯、瓶片、PTA、NR、塑料、短 纤、甲醇主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种方面，玻璃、菜粕、沪金、液化气、沪镍、原木、苹果、淀粉主 力合约跌超1%。 截至13日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1362.71点，较前一交易日上涨3.87点，涨幅0.28%；中 证商品期货指数收报1884.17点，较前一交易日上涨6.23点，涨幅0.33%。 苯乙烯尾盘强势涨停集运欧线继续反弹走高 在油价回升、基本面利多的共振作用下，苯乙烯13日强势增仓上扬。截至收盘，苯乙烯主力合约强势封 板涨停，涨幅5.99%。中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，给包括苯乙烯在内 的商品市场情绪带来利好。同时，国际油价继续震荡回升，也给苯乙烯市场带来成本端利多。 另外， 近期国内苯乙烯港口库存持续下滑并持续处于近几年同期低位水平，和盘面高持仓形成鲜明对比，进一 步强化了市场的看多情绪。不过，机构也提示，近期山东、江苏等多套装置重启，后期供应增量的影响 或陆续兑现。 集运 ...

国内商品期货市场5月6日跌多涨少，其中NR主力合约涨超2%；尿素、烧碱、沪金、液化气、天然橡胶 主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，SC原油、高硫燃油、硅铁主力合约跌超3%；焦炭、锰硅、工业硅、 多晶硅、鸡蛋、甲醇主力合约跌超2%。 尿素期货6日延续节前涨势，收盘录得1.95%的涨幅。农需旺季预期下，叠加出口传言扰动市场氛围， 尿素价格应声走强。在五矿期货看来，节后尿素市场预计将迎来国内农业需求的释放，短期主要矛盾集 中在出口端，在经历一整年出口受限后市场开始传出出口放松的消息，当前内外价差仍在，若出口放松 无疑能大大提振国内整体市场情绪，不排除后续消息继续发酵的可能性。光大期货指出，目前我国出口 仍处于受限状态，假期后继续关注尿素出口政策动态，据海关总署最新数据显示，1—3月我国尿素累计 出口量仅为0.64万吨，较去年同期锐减75.25%。总体上尿素市场基本面呈现供需两旺，尿素厂家收单积 极状态有望延续至假期后，期货盘面以偏强趋势为主，持续力度取决于需求兑现程度。 （文章来源：新华财经） 随着季节性旺季已过，市场对终端需求和铁水产量恢复的预期减弱，节后首个交易日黑色系商品全线承 压运行。钢厂保持较高的生产积极性 ...