Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline on August 1, with coking coal futures leading the drop at over 7% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1423.84 points, down 9.41 points or 0.66% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal - Coking coal futures approached the limit down, closing with a 7.34% decline, driven by weakening market sentiment and a shift from bullish to bearish outlook [2] - The previous bullish sentiment was based on "anti-involution" policies, but current production levels in key regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have stabilized, leading to a reassessment of the market [2] Group 3: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures continued their downward trend, closing with a 4.06% decline, as market sentiment shifted back to fundamentals [3] - The supply-demand dynamics are changing, with increased production from major plants and a decrease in demand due to a fire at a downstream organic silicon plant [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - Glass and polysilicon futures recorded declines of 3.84% and 3.03% respectively, while coking coal also fell by 3% [4] - Lithium carbonate saw a rebound of 1.59%, attributed to a 7.3% decrease in domestic production and a significant drop in inventory [5] - Red dates futures increased by 1.58%, supported by concerns over lower production and increased demand in southern markets [7]

Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a significant decline on July 31, with major contracts such as glass dropping over 8%, coking coal and polysilicon down over 7%, and several others falling more than 6% [1][2][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1425.90 points, down 23.20 points or 1.60% from the previous trading day [1] Glass Market - The glass main contract fell over 8%, nearly erasing all gains from the previous week, despite a continuous decrease in inventory [2] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a decrease of 239.7 thousand heavy boxes or 3.87% week-on-week [2] - The decline in glass inventory is attributed to procurement by spot traders, but the actual reduction is limited, and there is no significant improvement in downstream real estate demand [2] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal futures saw multiple contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract recording a 7.97% drop, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton [3] - The recent political meeting's statements have dampened expectations for supply-side capacity reduction in the coal industry, leading to a more relaxed balance in the coking coal market [3] - Despite the current production losses for coking enterprises, there is still a strong demand for raw material procurement, indicating a potential for wide fluctuations in the coking coal market [3] Oil Market - SC crude oil rose over 1%, marking a third consecutive day of gains, supported by rising international oil prices [4][6] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia have introduced new supply concerns, contributing to the relative strength of oil prices amidst a broader market decline [4][6] - The asphalt market also saw a slight increase, with prices reaching a one-month high, driven by both cost factors and limited supply growth [6]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts rise on July 30, with polysilicon leading the gains, up over 8%, followed by焦炭 (coke) up 4%, and菜粕 (rapeseed meal) up over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1445.52 points, up 9.09 points or 0.63% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2007.52 points, up 12.63 points or 0.63% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Related Products - Polysilicon surged nearly 9% at the close, leading the commodity market, with industrial silicon and焦煤 (coking coal) also rising over 2% [2] - Despite recent market rumors being clarified by the photovoltaic association, the optimistic sentiment in the market remains strong, driven by rising polysilicon prices affecting downstream photovoltaic cell industries [2] - However, there are concerns regarding the transmission of price increases to downstream components due to weak terminal demand, leading to cautious outlooks from analysts [2] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector showed a mild strengthening trend, with international oil prices rising over 3% amid increased pressure on Russia, pushing WTI crude oil closer to $70 per barrel [3] - SC crude oil opened high and closed up 2.7%, while high and low sulfur fuel oils rose by 1.48% and 2.49%, respectively, reaching new highs [3] - The market's concerns about trade tensions have eased, improving demand expectations for oil products, supported by the consumption peak in the Northern Hemisphere [3] Group 4: Cotton and Pulp Market - The cotton market continued its weak performance, with cotton futures experiencing a "six consecutive declines," with main contracts down 1.89% and 1.34% for cotton and cotton yarn, respectively [4][6] - The cotton market is currently in a traditional consumption off-season, but expectations for increased terminal consumption as the "golden September and silver October" approach are noted [4] - Pulp futures have also seen a decline of over 1% as market sentiment wanes, with high supply and inventory levels leading to significant pressure [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, as the log market is expected to fluctuate significantly this week, influenced by the commodity futures market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market has seen significant price increases due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the current fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit. Considering various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation, the overall market situation is complex, and waiting and seeing is the recommended strategy [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were approximately 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [3]. - **Demand**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters, a 6.1% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, a 4.8% decrease from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters, a 25.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory at Shandong ports was 1.932 million cubic meters, a 2% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 1.1 million cubic meters, basically unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 25, 2025, the trader's profit was - 54 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine is 760 yuan/m³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, register warehouse receipts for delivery. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures have risen significantly due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the fundamentals are currently weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit [7]. - **Spot**: As of July 25, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 710/760/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were about 2.1768 million cubic meters. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.2485 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.0189 million cubic meters [21]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 20th, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [24]. - **Trade Profit**: With the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was about - 53 yuan/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters, North American timber inventory was 230,000 cubic meters, and spruce and fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters. In Shandong ports, the inventory was 1.932 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu ports, 1.1 million cubic meters [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters [37]. - **Downstream**: As of July 25, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ from the previous week [41].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a narrow fluctuation trend, with the China Securities Commodity Index showing a slight annual increase of 0.20% and a volatility of 10.27% [1] Market Overview - The commodity market experienced increased volatility due to frequent macro events, with weak overall demand impacting industrial products more significantly than agricultural products [2] - Three major macro "black swan" events occurred in the first half of 2025, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, a global tariff storm, and conflicts in the Middle East, all contributing to market fluctuations [2] Performance Characteristics - There was a clear divergence between agricultural and industrial products, with agricultural prices being more stable and influenced by supply-side changes, while industrial prices were more sensitive to demand fluctuations [3] - Different types of events caused further differentiation within the commodity market, with industrial products reacting strongly to demand-side shocks while agricultural products remained relatively stable [3] Index Returns Attribution 1. **Term Structure Contribution** - The term structure yield for the first half of 2025 was 1.07%, showing a slight increase from 2024, indicating a potential improvement in global economic growth [6] 2. **Sector Contribution** - Agricultural products experienced slight price increases with lower volatility, while industrial products faced larger price declines and fluctuations, reflecting insufficient global demand [7] 3. **Product Contribution** - Precious metals and agricultural products contributed positively to returns, while black metals and energy chemicals generally contributed negatively [8] Macro Indicators 1. **Macro Level** - The China Securities Commodity Index serves as an important reference for macroeconomic conditions, showing a strong correlation with PPI, which may lead by about two months [9] 2. **Micro Level** - Sub-sector indices show a high correlation with the profit totals of corresponding industries, providing timely insights for business decision-making [12] Comparative Analysis - The China Securities Commodity Index demonstrates a clear advantage in terms of risk and return compared to major overseas commodity indices, making it an attractive option for domestic and international investors [18] - The correlation between the China Securities Commodity Index and major overseas indices is relatively low, indicating a unique positioning in the market [21]

市场分析认为，"双硅"仍旧面临供应充足、行业库存尚待消纳的弱势基本面，短期价格拉涨受到情绪影响较为明显。 但与此同时，焦煤的政策端利多更为确定，加上焦炭二轮、三轮现货价格提涨预期强烈，双焦价格上涨受到的基本面支撑更为明确。展望后市，部分机构观 点认为，焦煤在前期明显超跌的状态下，随着供应端收紧预期升温、需求端稳增长政策持续推出，供给、需求预期共振有望驱动板块迎来新一轮上涨机会。 另外，"反内卷"也逐渐扩散至农产品板块。当日受一则"农业农村部畜牧兽医局拟召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会"的消息影响，生猪市场产能收缩预期 升温，期价早盘大幅拉涨，盘中一度涨超5%，远月合约更是触及涨停。不过，机构提示，季节性影响下当前对猪肉消费积极性不足，供大于求的迹象依然 明显，这也令近期猪价上行受限。 其他品种方面，贵金属稳步走高，23日盘中在海外银价冲高的背景下，沪银主力合约再创上市以来新高。 新华财经北京7月23日电 国内商品期货市场7月23日涨跌互现，其中焦煤主力合约收盘涨停，涨幅11.00%；多晶硅主力合约涨超5%；焦炭主力合约涨超3%； 生猪、红枣、纸浆、菜粕、沪银、烧碱主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，碳酸锂主力合约 ...

新华财经北京7月14日电（郭洲洋、张瑶）国内商品期货市场7月14日涨跌互现，其中碳酸锂、工业硅主力合约涨超3%；SC原油、沪银主力合约涨超2%； LU、纯碱、短纤、焦煤、菜粕、玻璃、焦炭、沥青、沪金、烧碱主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种方面，红枣主力合约跌超2%；沪铝主力合约跌超1%。 截至14日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1412.44点，较前一交易日上涨8.31点，涨幅0.59%；中证商品期货指数收报1958.91点，较前一交易日上涨 12.19点，涨幅0.63%。 红枣大跌超2% 沪铝、铝合金回落 7月14日，红枣主力合约领跌商品市场，跌幅2.03%。目前市场关注点在产区天气情况，此前在市场情绪支撑下红枣主力合约已连续三个交易日收涨，但目 前来看，产区天气扰动有限，且下游消费需求缺乏提振，红枣盘面失去上行驱动。南华期货表示，当前下游处于消费淡季，购销氛围较为清淡，陈枣供应充 足，随着关键坐果期的到来，市场焦点逐渐向新季红枣转移，目前灰枣尚处于生理落果阶段，需关注新枣坐果情况，或仍存在天气炒作的可能，但同时陈枣 的高库存或压制盘面，若价格中枢上移，红枣仓单或加速注册，使得红枣价格承压运行。 沪铝及铝合金今 ...

Group 1 - Coking coal prices increased by over 3%, with the main contract rising by 3.34% and coking coal demand supported by active procurement from steel mills and traders [2] - Glass futures rose by 2.16%, driven by improved market sentiment and a decrease in inventory, although the fundamental support remains weak [2] - International silver prices strengthened, leading to a significant increase in Shanghai silver, which reached a new high since its listing, closing up by 1.74% [3] Group 2 - Alumina futures experienced a decline of over 2%, attributed to an oversupply situation, with weekly production exceeding 1.7 million tons and a return to historical high capacity utilization [4] - The oil market showed volatility following OPEC+'s consideration to pause further production increases, with oil prices initially rising before experiencing a significant drop [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, indicating a tightening market despite the anticipated oversupply [5][7]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on June 26 saw more gains than losses, with coking coal and polysilicon leading the rise, both increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1376.07 points, up 5.40 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.82 points, up 7.49 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices rebounded over 3% on June 26, driven by improved spot trading and a week-on-week increase in steel production [2] - Since hitting a multi-year low of 709 yuan/ton in early June, coking coal prices have rebounded by over 100 yuan in less than a month [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts believe the market's supply-demand imbalance has not been resolved, limiting the potential for significant price increases [2] Group 3: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon and industrial silicon both saw significant rebounds, closing up over 3% and 2% respectively, ranking second and third in daily gains [3] - Although the oversupply situation for industrial silicon and polysilicon remains, some regional production bottlenecks and slight increases in downstream production have led to short-term marginal improvements [3] - Analysts caution that the fundamental pressures of inventory accumulation and weak demand will limit the rebound potential for polysilicon and may negatively impact industrial silicon [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - The metals sector experienced a collective rebound, with nickel rising over 2%, while tin, silver, aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate all increased by over 1% [4] Group 5: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal contracts saw significant declines, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal down 2.67% and 2.43% respectively [5] - The decline in soybean meal prices is attributed to supply pressures and a continued accumulation of inventory in domestic oil mills [5] - Analysts expect soybean meal prices to face heavy pressure in the short term, while rapeseed meal may gradually recover in the medium to long term due to reduced import volumes [5] Group 6: Crude Oil Market - SC crude oil contracts fell by 1.14%, continuing a weak trend, although international oil prices saw a slight increase due to a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories [6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - Despite short-term price support from tight inventories and seasonal demand, the overall outlook for crude oil remains weak due to ongoing trade uncertainties and strong supply from OPEC+ [6]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]