Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining, the world's third-largest mining company, reported record quarterly performance but warned that geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism pose challenges to its overseas projects, with global uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels [1][3]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's latest financial report indicates a net profit of 28.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with attributable net profit reaching 23.3 billion yuan, up 54% [1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 167.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, and the overall gross margin for mineral products was 60.23%, an increase of 3 percentage points [4]. Production and Business Structure - The company produced 570,000 tons of copper, a 9% increase year-on-year; gold production reached 41 tons, up 16%; and silver production was 224 tons, a 6% increase [5]. - In terms of business structure, copper sales accounted for 27.8% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.5%, while gold sales represented 49.1% of revenue, benefiting from a significant rise in gold prices, with a gross margin of 38.6% [5]. Resource Strategy - Zijin Mining continues to implement a "exploration + acquisition" dual strategy, adding 2.049 million tons of copper resources and 888 tons of gold resources during the reporting period [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the Akim gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, enhancing its presence in West Africa and Central Asia [6]. Geopolitical Risks - The company highlighted multiple challenges facing the mining industry, including rising costs, trade disruptions, and countries seeking to protect their resources [7]. - Political, policy, and legal differences between countries, along with resource nationalism, may pose challenges to construction and production operations [7]. Market Outlook - In the copper market, the introduction of U.S. copper tariffs, combined with low global inventories, may lead to short-term market volatility as trade flows are reshaped [10]. - For the gold market, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and central bank purchases are expected to enhance gold's attractiveness [11]. - The zinc market is facing short-term pressure with a tight balance, as production increases in China but reductions are seen overseas [12]. - In the lithium market, the company warned that disruptions in supply expectations could lead to high price volatility, and the clearing of excess supply will take time [13].

地缘风险支撑油价，原油区间内偏强震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 2025年8月25日，SC原油主力合约价格小幅回落0.14%至492.9元/桶，而WTI 和Brent价格维持稳定，均为63.77和67.26美元/桶。SC-Brent价差走强 12.16%至1.66美元/桶，SC-WTI价差扩大3.62%至5.15美元/桶，反映SC相对 境外原油溢价提升，可能受人民币汇率或区域供需变动影响。Brent-WTI价 差持平于3.49美元/桶，远月合约结构（SC连续-连3）贴水加深至-2.8元/ 桶，暗示市场对远期供应宽松的预期。 持仓与成交： 仓单数据显示，燃料油、中质含硫原油及低硫燃料油仓单均持平，显示实 物交割压力有限，市场持仓心态稳定。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 地缘政治方面，特朗普政府提及扩大与日韩的阿拉斯加石油合作，可能强 化美国原油出口能力；阿联酋Crescent石油公司收购Vital Energy（31亿 美元）或推动中东产量边际上升。印度7月原油进口降至2024年2月以来最 低（环比降8.7%），可能间接反映OPEC+高油价对亚洲需求抑制效应。此 外，美 ...

8月26日，国家发展改革委发布消息称，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据8月26日的前10个工作日平均 价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2025年8月26日24时 起，国内汽、柴油价格(标准品，下同)每吨分别降低180元和175元。至此，成品油零售价迎来今年以来 的第七次下调。 从本轮计价周期来看，尽管原油价格整体呈现出先跌后涨走势，但其平均水平低于上轮调价周期。 对此，国家发展改革委价格监测中心有关负责人告诉《证券日报》记者，一方面，全球原油市场供应过 剩预期加剧。国际能源署在最新月报中下调2025年全球石油需求增长预期，并大幅上调全球石油供应增 长预期40万桶/日，至250万桶/日。美国能源信息署预计，2025年美国原油产量将达到1341万桶/日，创 历史新高；同时，预计四季度美国原油库存将大幅增加。另一方面，随着美俄围绕俄乌达成和平协议展 开会谈，市场情绪从乐观逐步转向僵持，期间，地缘政治风险再度升温推动国际油价上涨。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心认为，随着夏季驾驶旺季接近尾声，石油需求预计将逐步转淡，叠加"欧 佩克+"增产和美国原油产量增长，全球原油市场将继续维持供应 ...

总之，日内建议以区间为主，谨慎追高。可在关键支撑区（如3350-3358）企稳后布局多单，若反弹至 关键阻力区（如3375-3380或更高）受阻可考虑短空。务必轻仓操作并设置止损，密切关注晚间美国数 据带来的波动风险。 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：3355-3380区间操作，止损5美金，止盈15-20美金。如果行情今日走出此区间，盘中根据实际情 况再做相应的调整。 周二（8月26日）昨日金价整体呈现震荡走势，价格在关键支撑和阻力位之间波动。今日早间，美国总 统特朗普宣布解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务，并立即生效。此举被市场解读为对美联 储独立性的直接干预，削弱了市场对美元的信心，导致美元指数短线跳水（下跌约30个点），从而让黄 金大涨30美金。 可以说，今日黄金市场由"突发消息驱动"主导。特朗普罢免美联储理事的举动，通过打击美元信用和美 联储独立性，瞬间改变了市场情绪，推动了金价的暴力拉升。与此同时，高企的9月降息预期和持续的 地缘政治风险构成了金价的深层支撑基础。然而，市场正屏息等待周五的PCE数据，这将为美联储的政 策路径提供更明确的指引，可能引发新一轮的重大波动。 从技术上来看 ...

一、核心影响因素分析 1. 地缘政治风险：避险需求的主导变量 中美竞争加剧：2025年台海、南海及科技脱钩风险持续升温，可能触发金价阶段性脉冲式上涨。 全球选举年效应：65国选举（包括美国、印度、巴西等）可能引发政策不确定性，尤其是美国大选若出现极端结果，将推高避险情绪。 AI治理失控风险：技术军备竞赛与监管滞后可能引发市场恐慌，黄金作为"数字时代的避风港"属性或被强化。 结构性增持趋势：全球央行购金量连续三年超1000吨，2025年新兴市场央行（如中国、印度、土耳其）预计继续主导购买。 中国央行操作：2025年6月黄金储备达2298吨，连续8个月增持，但节奏可能因金价高位而放缓，需关注其"高抛低吸"策略。 市场影响：央行购金每增加100吨，金价季度波动率或降低0.8%，但需警惕"买预期卖事实"效应。 3. 美联储货币政策：利率路径与预期管理 关键会议节点：2025年美联储8次利率决议中，3月、6月、9月、12月会议含点阵图与经济预测，需重点关注： 降息周期启动：若通胀回落至2%目标，6月可能首次降息，推动金价上涨5-8%。 政策不确定性：点阵图分歧度每上升1%，金价波动率或增加1.2%。 2. 央行购金行为 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

做投资就像打一场战役，一定要在战役开始前定好策略，不仅要在战场上有优势的时候要怎么扩大优势，趁胜追击，而且还要制定若不敌该怎么办，怎么保 存实力撤退后再定计谋，再战。无论战争也好投资也罢，不是每一次的背水而战都能迎来胜利，历史上也只是有几次背水而战胜利的结果，就好比投资市场 里面本来趋势已经走出相反的信号，还去奢求按照自己的意愿去走，一旦有这样心理的朋友，一定要注意，此毛病不改将会被投资市场所淹没。提前预判， 先人一步，抢占先机，轻仓顺势，严格风控，轻松把握，愉快投资。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一欧市早盘，黄金小幅下跌，目前交投在3363美元附近。但就在上周五，金价可是上演了精彩逆袭，单日大涨1%，盘中更是一举冲上 3378美元的两周高位，最终收报3371美元。这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪 称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。受此影响，美元汇率应声大跌，黄金市场瞬间被看涨情绪包围。 业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元走弱和债市调整，为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - **Tin**: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - **Styrene**: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - **Apples**: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].

1.尽管通胀持续面临上行风险，但上周五在鲍威尔的鸽派讲话突显就业风险后，金价大幅上涨。交易员 预计美联储降息25个基点的可能性为90%，9月前仍有关键数据出炉。 2.本周美国将公布耐用品订单、国内生产总值(GDP)和美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出 (PCE)物价指数。 上周五金价大幅上涨，但仍未突破3400美元/盎司大关。鲍威尔的讲话让多头出现，但仍持谨慎态度， 因为在上周初有关俄罗斯和乌克兰的乐观消息传出后，地缘政治风险有所缓解。如果金价攀升至3400美 元/盎司上方，下一个阻力位将是6月16日高点3452美元/盎司，然后是历史高点3500美元/盎司。 FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： 如果金价出现回撤，则可能在50日简单移动平均线(约3350美元/盎司)处止住跌势。在黄金进一步走弱的 情况下，金价将瞄准20日移动均线3345美元/盎司，随后是100日移动均线3309美元/盎司。 ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 3.鲍威尔说："在我们考虑政策立场的变化之际，失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定使我们能够谨慎 行事。尽管如此，政策处于限制性区域之际，基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能使调整我们的政策立场成 为恰 ...

24K99讯 上周五(8月22日)，因美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派言论引发美元暴跌，黄金价格飙升。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 美元指数上周五大跌近1%，意味着以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说变得相对便宜。 黄金技术分析 Valencia指出，上周五金价大幅上涨，但仍未突破3400美元/盎司大关。鲍威尔的讲话让多头出现，但仍持谨慎态度，因 为在上周初有关俄罗斯和乌克兰的乐观消息传出后，地缘政治风险有所缓解。 Valencia称，如果金价攀升至3400美元/盎司上方，下一个阻力位将是6月16日高点3452美元/盎司，然后是历史高点3500 美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，尽管通胀持续面临上行风险，但上周五在鲍威尔的鸽派讲话突显就业风险后，金价大幅上涨。交易员预 计美联储降息25个基点的可能性为90%，9月前仍有关键数据出炉。 Valencia称，本周美国将公布耐用品订单、国内生产总值(GDP)和美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(PCE)物 价指数。 尽管并未承诺降息，但鲍威尔上周五表示，风险情势的变化，可能让美联储需要调整政 ...