朋友们，我是帮主郑重。站在2026年的起点，我相信很多朋友和我一样，面对着看似矛盾的市场信号： 一边是机构预警AI泡沫可能破灭、全球增长面临不确定性；另一边，是量子计算、脑机接口这些颠覆 性技术加速向我们驶来。大家心里可能都有一个问号：2026年，机会到底在哪？今天的钱，又该投向何 方？ 作为一位和资本市场打了20年交道的观察者，我的答案不是一份"致富代码清单"，而是几条相对清晰 的、值得用中长线眼光去审视和布局的核心主线。在我看来，2026年的投资机会，正蕴藏在这"新与 旧"、"实与虚"、"内与外"的几重转换之中。 第二，坚持"深度研究"，警惕"故事投资"。 无论是AI还是其他赛道，随着产业成熟，市场会越来越"精 明"。仅靠宏大叙事已经不够，订单、收入、利润、现金流这些硬指标的重要性会空前提升。深入理解 一家公司的商业模式和竞争壁垒，比追逐热点标签更重要。 第三，保持"长期主义"的耐心与"中场休息"的纪律。 中长线投资不是买了就一动不动，它需要我们在 看准的长期方向上保持耐心，陪伴优秀公司成长。同时，也要有在中场（比如估值阶段性过高时）适度 休息、控制风险的纪律，这样才能走得更远。 总而言之，2026年的画 ...

每经记者｜涂颖浩 每经编辑｜陈 旭 在全球经济周期步入关键转折点的2025年末，投资者正面临前所未有的复杂局面：一方面，以AI（人 工智能）为代表的新质生产力展现出强劲的长期增长潜力，但估值和预期偏高；另一方面，传统经济部 门信用扩张稍显乏力，整体回报率承压。 在此背景下，如何构建一个既能捕捉时代机遇，又能抵御周期波动的投资组合？ 在日前举办的雪球嘉年华活动期间，中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚在接受《每日经济新闻》 记者专访时，系统阐述了其对2026年全球及中国市场资产配置的前瞻性思考。 刘刚认为，2026年的投资策略应告别"单边押注"，转向"均衡配置"——在拥抱AI硬件等确定性成长方向 的同时，也需保留一部分高股息资产作为对冲。与此同时，港股市场凭借其独特的结构优势，有望成为 这一策略的重要载体。 从信用扩张中寻确定性 在演讲环节中，刘刚判断，2026年市场环境的核心特征是，过剩流动性不断追逐每个阶段大家认可的稀 缺回报资产，这一格局未被破坏，但稀缺回报资产能否扩散成为关键变量。 在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时，刘刚进一步阐述了"稀缺回报资产"的核心逻辑，即在于观察何处 正在加杠杆、扩张信用。"比如 ...

在此背景下，如何构建一个既能捕捉时代机遇、又能抵御周期波动的投资组合？ 每经记者｜涂颖浩 每经编辑｜陈旭 在全球经济周期步入关键转折点的2025年末，投资者正面临前所未有的复杂局面：一方面，以AI（人工智能）为代表的新质生产力展现出强劲的长期增长 潜力，但估值和预期偏高；另一方面，传统经济部门信用扩张稍显乏力，整体回报率承压。 在日前举办的雪球嘉年华会议期间，中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时，系统阐述了其对2026年全球及中国市场 资产配置的前瞻性思考。 刘刚认为，2026年的投资策略应告别"单边押注"，转向"均衡配置"——在拥抱AI硬件等确定性成长方向的同时，也需保留一部分高股息资产作为对冲。与此 同时，港股市场凭借其独特的结构优势，有望成为这一策略的重要载体。 刘刚在雪球嘉年华上演讲 每经记者 涂颖浩 摄 稀缺资产的再定义：从信用扩张中寻找确定性 刘刚对此也给出了自己的见解。他认为，港股市场的独特之处在于其基本面主要由内地公司主导，而流动性却同时受海外与内地（南向资金）双重影响。这 种"两头驱动"的特性，使其在不同市场环境下表现出复杂的轮动规律。 展望2026年，刘刚预 ...

近日，中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚表示，投资者在2026年的投资行为应转向"均衡配置"， 拥抱AI硬件等成长方向，保留高股息资产对冲。他认为，港股市场流动性受海内外双重影响，2026年 南向资金或出现分化。他建议个人投资者均衡配置，灵活调整比例，关注港股高股息、AI及强周期板 块。（每经） ...

近期盘面热点轮动加快，想要精准押注单一赛道的难度越来越大，"均衡配置"或是更稳妥的投资策略。 中证A500指数作为新一代核心宽基指数，恰好契合了这一市场需求。 · 三是龙头荟萃，质地过硬。中证A500指数从各行业中选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券作为指 数样本，且在筛选过程中剔除中证ESG评价结果在C及以下的上市公司证券。在每个中证三级行业中， 若将截至2025年9月30日市值排名前两位的公司定义为"行业龙头"，那么中证A500指数覆盖了97%中证 三级行业的龙头企业，既包含传统行业的巨头，也囊括了许多具有高成长潜力的"隐形冠军"，堪称A 股"尖子班"。 短期来看，市场或将延续震荡结构行情。随着2026年即将到来，A股或进入跨年布局的关键窗口期。 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，政策红利释放节奏预计相对靠前，结构性机会将集中在政策导向与 产业景气共振的赛道，后续春季躁动行情值得期待。建议投资者关注更多人选择的中证A500ETF （159338），一键打包各行业龙头。（根据基金2025年中报，中证A500ETF（159338）持有人户数位居 同类38只产品首位） · 二是成长属性突出。基于沪深300 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index recording six consecutive days of gains, closing up 0.53% at 3940.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.77% [1][15] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.88 trillion yuan, a decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][15] - High-volatility sectors such as military, consumer electronics, photovoltaic, and communication performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1][15] Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a neutral to strong risk appetite, with a recommendation for "balanced allocation" as a more prudent investment strategy due to the increasing difficulty in accurately betting on a single sector [1][15] - The China Securities A500 Index is highlighted as a new core broad-based index that aligns with market demands for balanced sector exposure [1][15] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating structure, with 2026 being a critical year for cross-year layout as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][16] - Structural opportunities are anticipated to arise from policy guidance and industry prosperity, with a focus on the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) as a popular choice among investors [2][16] Sector Analysis - The China Securities A500 Index offers comprehensive and balanced coverage across various industries, reflecting the performance of representative listed companies [2][16] - The index has reduced its weight in traditional sectors like non-bank financials and food and beverage by approximately 10%, reallocating to emerging industries, enhancing its growth characteristics [2][16] - The index includes 97% of the leading companies across various sectors, combining traditional giants with high-growth potential "hidden champions" [2][16] Precious Metals - Gold, silver, and platinum prices have surged to historical highs due to geopolitical risks, ongoing supply shortages, and strong investment demand [5][19] - The price of gold has surpassed $4500 per ounce for the first time, while platinum futures have exceeded $2300 per ounce [5][19] - The strong performance of gold is attributed to factors such as the recent interest rate cuts, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have raised expectations for further rate cuts [20] Cash Flow ETFs - The cash flow ETF (159399) has completed its quarterly adjustment, significantly increasing the weight of the communication sector while enhancing the allocation to electronics, retail, steel, and automotive industries [23][24] - The index adjustment has resulted in a more balanced industry distribution, with a slight increase in the free cash flow rate of constituent stocks [23][24] - Compared to other cash flow indices, the FTSE cash flow index is characterized by its focus on large and mid-cap stocks, providing a better risk-return profile [24][26]

Market Overview - The overall market shows a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.27%, the ChiNext Index by 0.41%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.36%, indicating a preference for growth styles [2] - A-share trading volume reached 1.9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative annual trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, reflecting increased market activity and liquidity depth [2] Structural Analysis - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industry indices reveals clear capital flows, with leading sectors such as power equipment (+1.12%), building materials (+0.88%), and electronics (+0.58%) showing gains, while consumer sectors like social services (-2.07%) and beauty care (-1.65%) faced significant adjustments [3] - The leading sectors benefit from clear industrial policies, improved economic cycles, or expectations of valuation recovery, while the consumer sector's adjustment reflects a reassessment of short-term recovery strength and valuation [3] Focus on Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a comprehensive surge, with significant increases in sub-indices for lithium battery electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and lithium battery separators, driven by solid underlying logic rather than speculative trading [4] Market Outlook - The index is likely to maintain a volatile trend, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge, supported by a friendly policy environment, ample liquidity, gradually recovering corporate earnings, and reasonable market valuations [4] - A forward-looking judgment suggests that the "spring excitement" market in 2026 may start earlier than expected, driven by strong policy expectations, improving economic fundamentals, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4] - Key market themes are expected to revolve around technology innovation (AI applications, semiconductors, robotics), cyclical recovery (improving supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals and chemicals), and balanced allocation (low-valuation sectors benefiting from market activity) [4] Summary of Market Sentiment - The market has conducted a concentrated "vote" through clear sector differentiation, indicating that funds are currently favoring directions aligned with long-term policy guidance and improving economic conditions [5] - The central economic work conference has positioned new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with potential support from special government bonds, providing clear backing for long-term industry development [5] - In a context of ample market liquidity, growth sectors attract high-risk preference funds, as evidenced by significant trading volumes in related thematic indices, indicating institutional capital's collective layout rather than retail speculation [5] - Marginal improvements in the fundamentals are noted, with a stable trend in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and signs of price stabilization for key materials after prolonged declines, correcting pessimistic profit expectations in the supply chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of public funds hiring managers with pharmaceutical backgrounds to enhance their portfolios, particularly in the context of a market correction in the innovative drug sector as the year-end approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Hiring Trends - Several non-pharmaceutical themed funds have recently announced the hiring of managers with pharmaceutical expertise, indicating a shift towards a more balanced investment strategy [2][3]. - The hiring of these managers is seen as a response to the need for diversified portfolio management amid increasing market volatility and sector rotation [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Examples - Silver华 Fund announced the hiring of Wu Ying, a manager with a strong pharmaceutical background, for its Silver华乐享生活 mixed fund, which previously focused heavily on semiconductor stocks [3][4]. - Similarly, Ping An Fund appointed Fang Junping, another pharmaceutical investment veteran, to co-manage its Ping An Balanced Selection mixed fund, which had a predominant focus on real estate stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The hiring of pharmaceutical managers is driven by expectations of a sustained uptrend in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on the upcoming performance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [7][8]. - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year for innovative drugs, with potential for both earnings and valuation expansion, as many companies are expected to release significant clinical data [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The A500 ETF has become a focal point for capital inflow during market fluctuations, particularly highlighted by significant trading activity on December 17, where the total trading volume exceeded 520 billion yuan, surpassing that of the CSI 300 ETF, indicating a strong institutional and index-based investment trend [1][3][4]. Trading Activity - On December 17, 2022, the total trading volume of 45 A500 ETFs reached 526.38 billion yuan, marking the highest record for December, while on December 18, it slightly decreased to 474.01 billion yuan, still the second highest for the month [3][4]. - The trading volume of A500 ETFs has consistently exceeded 400 billion yuan on multiple days in December, reflecting a growing interest from investors [4]. Capital Inflow - On December 17, A500 ETFs attracted a net inflow of 111.59 billion yuan, accounting for 68.5% of the total net inflow into stock ETFs, with major public funds leading the inflow [7][10]. - The total net inflow for A500 ETFs from December 15 to December 17 approached 197 billion yuan, indicating strong demand from institutional investors [7][10]. Institutional Investment - The influx of capital into A500 ETFs is driven by three main types of institutional investors: insurance funds, bank wealth management subsidiaries, and foreign capital, all seeking stable returns and growth potential [8][10]. - Regulatory changes have facilitated insurance funds' entry into the market, aligning with their long-term investment strategies [8]. Fund Size and Competition - As of December 17, the A500 ETFs managed by Huatai-PB and Southern Fund surpassed 300 billion yuan in size, establishing a duopoly in the market [11]. - The overall market size of A500 ETFs has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest core broad-based index after the CSI 300 [12]. Future Development - The A500 ETF market is expected to continue expanding, with a focus on product differentiation and the introduction of Smart Beta strategies to enhance competitiveness [12]. - The A500 index is anticipated to improve its market positioning due to its balanced industry allocation and selection of leading companies, catering to both value and growth investment strategies [12].

头部聚集效应凸显 市场震荡过程中，A500ETF成为资金抢筹的对象。 特别是在A股反弹的12月17日，投资者交易A500ETF的热情空前。据统计，当天，全市场45只A500ETF （包括指数增强、红利低波等）合计成交额突破520亿元，远超沪深300ETF的成交额，为当日最活跃的 一类股票ETF。 拉长时间看，2025年12月12日—12月18日，全市场A500ETF的单日成交额已连续5个交易日超过400亿 元。 值得一提的是，成交放量的当天（12月17日），A500ETF的净流入额超过110亿元，大型公募旗下的 A500ETF仍然是"吸金"主力。 与此同时，近期，在净申购资金的加持下，A500ETF的总规模已超过2300亿元，较11月底增加了近370 亿元。其中，华泰柏瑞基金、南方基金旗下A500ETF的规模双双突破300亿元，形成双巨头格局。 在业内人士看来，A500ETF的巨量交投与规模跃升，反映出机构化、指数化投资趋势的深化，以及"耐 心资本"入市渠道的进一步畅通。 A股上证指数在12月17日、12月18日连续上涨。资金借道宽基ETF入市的趋势再次凸显。 尤其是A500ETF遭到资金抢筹，引发市场诸多猜 ...