投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hikvision's stock price showed a slight increase at the opening, indicating some market support, but faced resistance at key technical levels, leading to a narrow trading range, reflecting a clear division in market sentiment between buyers and sellers [1] Market Performance - The opening price was slightly higher compared to the previous day's closing price, suggesting a degree of market acceptance [1] - During the trading session, the stock price attempted to break through key technical levels but failed, resulting in limited upward momentum [1] - The market is characterized by a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with buyers attempting to push higher but facing pressure from trapped positions and short-term profit-takers [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable divergence in judgment regarding the market's future direction, with buyers showing some strength but encountering significant resistance [1] - Sellers have not established overwhelming dominance, as the stock price continues to find support during pullbacks [1] - Overall, the early trading information indicates that the market is awaiting clearer signals to determine the next steps [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to the market's increased expectation of supply contraction after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights and the disappointment of supply release expectations caused by the rumored resumption delay at Shixiawo. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. Also, be aware of policy risks from the exchange, weekly inventory data, and the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The supply situation of lithium carbonate is still uncertain, and there is a need to be vigilant about policy cooling while the market sentiment is high [1]. Company Announcement - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Yifeng County Lion Ridge lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. The expiration of these 27 mining licenses has little actual impact on the lithium carbonate market supply [5]. Market Analysis - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is caused by the market's expectation of supply contraction and the disappointment of supply release expectations. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected to experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, with the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. Risk Warnings and Suggestions - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a market risk warning. Attention should be paid to policy risks of margin adjustment and position limit by the exchange in case of continuous sharp rise. Also, pay attention to the weekly inventory data on Thursday, as a slower - than - expected de - stocking speed may lead to a decline in market sentiment. Be vigilant against the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [7].

【资讯】QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度美国进口轮胎累计217,312万条，同比增6.6%。其 中，乘用车胎进口同比增4%至13,108万条；卡客车胎进口同比增8%至4,716万条；航空器用胎同比降 9.3%至20.2万条；摩托车用胎同比增17%至292万条；自行车用胎同比增2%至500万条。 1-9月，美国自中国进口轮胎数量累计1,692万条，同比降12%。其中，乘用车胎同比降37%至75万条； 卡客车胎同比降12%至105万条。 1-9月，美国自泰国进口轮胎数量累计5,628万条，同比增14%。其中，乘用车胎为3,435万条，同比增 10%；卡客车胎为1,240万条，同比增2.2%。 【原料及现货】截至12月16日，杯胶50.92(+0.48)泰铢/千克，胶乳55.50(0)泰铢/千克，海南民营胶水 15000(0)元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1835(0)美元/吨，泰混14450(0)元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截止到12月11日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为70.14%，环比+1.81个百分 点，同比-8.49个百分点。周内检修企业排产逐步恢复，对产能利用率形成一定带动。中国全钢胎样本 企 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1125.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Recent coking coal production has slightly decreased, while imported Mongolian coal has increased significantly. The supply - side support is limited, and downstream coke production has weakened, with no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [5] - **Market Performance**: As the market trades on supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased recently, and the price has started to oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, and the reduction on the demand side is more obvious, with relatively weak fundamentals [6] - **Market Performance**: In December, domestic high - level meetings have not released direct benefits for coke. The market maintains the fundamental logic. Affected by double pressure from the cost and demand sides, the coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the short term [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

近期，焦煤和焦炭期货价格波动幅度较大，有投资者坦言："双焦交易难度加大，往年的交易逻辑在今年多次失效。" 上周五夜盘收盘，焦煤和焦炭期货主力合约均大幅下跌。 展望后市，陈为昌认为，目前焦煤期货2601合约已跌至1000元/吨附近，主流现货仓单成本在1100元/吨以上，呈明显的升水状态。国内焦煤产量预计维持 低位，而下游在春节前仍存在补库需求，价格继续下跌的空间有限。在铁水产量下降、库存充裕的背景下，焦煤价格反弹高度也将受限。 "在供稳需弱的大格局下，煤焦价格缺乏上行驱动，预计承压运行。12月需关注国内外宏观形势变化。目前煤焦期货主力合约已切换至2605合约，价格尚 未企稳，短期市场多空博弈加剧，操作需谨慎。"冯艳成说。 期货日报记者注意到，自11月以来，焦煤在黑色板块中的表现由前期的偏强转为偏弱，11月跌幅达17%，进入12月仍延续跌势。焦炭期货价格11月累计下 跌11%。 （文章来源：期货日报） 据悉，目前国内焦煤产量仍然不高，最新一周样本矿山原煤产量为190万吨，处于近年同期最低水平；精煤产量为75.4万吨，明显低于去年同期。国内煤 矿在完成年度生产任务后面临指标约束，同时生产仍然受超产核查、安全环保检查 ...

（来源：新黑金日志） 2、回补1074-1084缺口之后，出阳线反弹。因为从小时级别看，只要出大阳线，就容易形成小时级别的 底背离。 来源：新黑金日志 焦煤即将破位 2025年12月7日星期日 之前还觉得焦煤期货走势会往上突破，没想到周五的白天加晚上，焦煤主力都快把焦煤干到接近破位的 边缘。从焦煤加权走势看，周五是空头主力主动进攻，导致焦煤跌幅扩大。螺纹基本面没啥变化，但是 焦煤的阴线就很大，很吓人的那种。 从焦煤01合约的走势看，在1050这个位置坚守了8个交易日，但是周五的晚上失守，那么1000的这个位 置再破的话，会很打击多头的信心。 从焦煤05合约的走势看，在1130这个位置坚守了好久，但是周五晚上的失守阵地，下一个支撑看1080附 近。 自从8月份上涨以来，焦煤走势是偏大震荡。接下来下周的走势分两种情况说: 1、直接破位。直接失守1070之后，每天持仓增加，成交量增加，空头主力准备发动一波下跌行情。 宏观还是看出口，11月份制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 11月制造业景气水平有一定改善，得益于外部环境的变化。11月 PMI 数据最大的惊喜就是新出口订单 ...

Group 1 - The ethylene glycol market continues to show a weak trend, with spot trading around 3820 yuan/ton and a stable basis [1] - The total production capacity utilization rate for ethylene glycol in China is 62.67%, down 1.25% week-on-week [1] - The external market for ethylene glycol is experiencing a downward trend, with recent transactions around 448-452 USD/ton [1] Group 2 - Downstream users are showing low purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a quiet polyester market [3] - An increase in ethylene glycol supply is expected, with stable imports and a slight rise in demand, maintaining a balanced supply-demand situation [3] - Short-term pressure on ethylene glycol prices is anticipated due to increased inventory and port arrivals [3]

2025年12月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场多空博弈，盘面宽幅震荡, 已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 | 12月1日 | II FZOD | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点,较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13 点,较上期上涨9.57点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1404USD/TEU, 较上期上涨2.71% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% ...