Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international precious metals markets and their impact on global capital markets, particularly the A-share market in China, which experienced a significant drop followed by a rebound, indicating a resilient bullish sentiment among investors [1]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a sharp decline at the beginning of the week due to international precious metals volatility, but rebounded on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4100 points, suggesting a strong bullish outlook [1]. - The market is expected to exhibit a trend of low-volume fluctuations as the Chinese New Year approaches, maintaining a stable yet slightly bullish tone [1]. Sector Highlights - The international precious metals market remains volatile, with significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, which have influenced related A-share sectors, particularly with precious metals experiencing the largest declines on Wednesday [1]. - The coal sector showed strong performance on Wednesday, driven by recent increases in domestic coal prices, leading to notable gains [1]. - The technology sector, particularly in the U.S. stock market, faced substantial declines, which affected the A-share market's computing hardware sector, with gaming and semiconductor stocks also experiencing significant adjustments [1]. Future Outlook - Despite market fluctuations, the overall market resilience remains strong, with a primary focus on a bullish market trend [1]. - It is anticipated that the market will continue to experience fluctuations before the Chinese New Year, with individual stock hotspots shifting, particularly in the semiconductor chip sector, which shows signs of adjustment, while undervalued blue-chip sectors like coal are expected to strengthen [1].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is undergoing a valuation reshaping driven by a "super rebound" as risk aversion fluctuates and macro policy signals become clearer [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold and silver have shown strong resilience, with bullish funds demonstrating a strong bottom-fishing intent after previous volatility [1][2] - The approval of government funding bills and the resolution of the shutdown crisis have positively impacted gold and silver prices, lifting them out of a downturn [1][2] - The improvement in policy expectations has led to a recovery in risk appetite, halting irrational price declines and establishing a solid short-term bottom technically [1][2] Group 2: External Factors and Opportunities - The recent weakness of the US dollar index and stable crude oil prices around $62.75 per barrel serve as clear bullish signals for precious metals as anti-inflation assets [3] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, creating a brief "information vacuum" that makes market flows more reliant on technical guidance and sudden news [3] - In this environment, April gold futures recorded a single-day increase of over $300, closing at $4959.00, highlighting the appeal of physical assets amid uncertainty [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Despite the rapid short-term rebound, the long-term battle between bulls and bears remains intense [3] - The previous bearish reversal pattern in gold suggests a potential top, but support levels at $4750.00 and $4690.20 remain solid [3] - Silver has successfully reclaimed the $88.17 level and is gearing up to challenge the $90.00 resistance [3] - If gold can effectively hold above the $5000.00 mark, it may initiate a new upward trend; otherwise, the market could enter a phase of wide fluctuations [3][4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current rise in gold and silver is a result of both macro fundamentals and technical oversold corrections [4] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in their strategies due to the absence of key inflation data [4] - Monitoring the performance of the 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.28% and whether silver can break the psychological barrier of $100.00 will be crucial indicators for the continuation of the precious metals bull market [4]

Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, highlighting a significant price drop followed by a strong rebound, indicating a potential turning point in the market dynamics [3][5][32]. Group 1: Recent Market Movements - On February 3, domestic silver futures experienced a sharp decline, with a daily drop of 16.71% and a cumulative drop exceeding 30% over two days [3]. - The silver concept stocks in the A-share market also faced severe losses, with many hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Following the price drop, the iShares Silver Trust increased its holdings by over 1,023 tons on February 2, bringing total holdings back to 16,546.59 tons, effectively reversing previous reductions [11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The COMEX silver inventory has seen a drastic decline, dropping from 16,550 tons in September 2025 to 12,624.5 tons by the end of January 2026, a decrease of 23.7% [19]. - The silver market is facing a systemic inventory crisis, exacerbated by increased delivery demands and export controls from major silver-producing countries [23][24]. - The global silver market has been in a supply shortage for six consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, expected to widen to 7,000-8,000 tons in 2026 [34]. Group 3: Future Outlook - March is anticipated to be a critical battleground for silver prices, with potential for significant volatility as both bulls and bears engage in market positioning [9][36]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for silver remains optimistic due to persistent industrial demand and declining available inventory [32][36]. - The article suggests that the current silver market situation is a result of complex interactions between supply-demand dynamics, speculative trading, and policy influences, indicating that the epic market conditions are far from over [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in precious metal prices, particularly gold, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the ongoing bull market, with significant fluctuations observed in the market [1][3]. Price Movement - On February 2, gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold falling below key levels of $4700, $4600, and $4500, reaching a maximum single-day decline of approximately 10%. However, by the end of the day, prices rebounded to above $4700, closing with a daily decline of 3.69% [1]. - Since January 29, gold prices have decreased by nearly $700 from a historical high of $5598.75 per ounce, marking a total decline of 12.81% over three days [1]. Market Dynamics - The year-to-date increase in gold prices has also seen a notable retreat, dropping from a peak of nearly 30% to 9.1% as of February 2 [3]. - The market is characterized by intense competition between bulls and bears, with significant support observed in the price action on February 2, indicating a struggle between opposing market forces [3]. Influencing Factors - Analysts attribute the recent gold price drop to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, which has raised concerns about monetary policy tightening and its impact on gold prices [3][5]. - The release of higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data by the U.S. Labor Department has also contributed to the bearish sentiment, suggesting that inflation is becoming more embedded in the economy [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, there is a belief among some analysts that the long-term support for gold prices remains intact, driven by strong investment demand and central bank purchases [4][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is projected to exceed 5000 tons for the first time, with ongoing strong investment demand and central bank purchases [6]. Future Price Predictions - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $6200 per ounce, citing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions as key drivers of demand [6]. - Analysts from Huayuan Securities and CITIC Securities also express optimism, predicting that gold prices could reach $6000 by 2026 [6]. Investment Strategy - Current market conditions suggest that investors should approach gold investments cautiously, avoiding high leverage and focusing on risk management [7][8]. - It is recommended that investors consider a diversified approach, with gold as a core holding, and to strategically allocate a portion of their investment to gold and silver ETFs when prices fall within certain ranges [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have continued to decline, extending the significant drop from the previous Friday, driven by intense market fluctuations in China and ongoing investor speculation about future trends [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the latest report, LME copper prices fell by 3.92% to $12,653 per ton, following a 3.4% drop the previous Friday [1] - Copper prices had previously surged to over $14,500 per ton, a historical high, before dropping below $13,000 during trading last Friday [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The basic and precious metals markets have been dominated by strong investor interest, particularly in China, due to concerns about the dollar's outlook and a rotation of funds out of currencies and sovereign bonds [1] - The recent price drop was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his tough stance on inflation, to lead the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that some funds exited the market before the Chinese New Year to avoid risks associated with high volatility, but the long-term bullish sentiment among Chinese investors remains unchanged [1] - January marked the most active month for metal trading in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's history, with copper trading volumes reaching record highs during last Friday's sharp decline [1] Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - Copper is viewed as an attractive investment due to strong demand prospects and tight supply, despite the recent price surge occurring amid stagnation in Chinese manufacturing activity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation" are in a game. Current price increases rely on supply disruptions and pre - demand. If supply recovers or demand is overdrawn, prices are likely to correct. High price risks have accumulated, and range operations are recommended. Pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points and consider selling hedges at high prices [3] Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 169,200 yuan/ton and closed at 164,820 yuan/ton, with a - 3.24% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 521,334 lots, and the open interest was 402,347 lots (410,985 lots the previous day). The basis was 2,460 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,211 lots, a change of 245 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 162,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton, a - 4,000 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, also a - 4,000 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,250 US dollars/ton, a - 20 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - Lithium carbonate showed an oscillating trend. Due to inventory de - stocking data, it turned positive during the session but closed down after the long - short game. The exchange's high - pressure stance on violations in the lithium carbonate variety has curbed sharp price fluctuations. On the spot side, due to low downstream inventory levels and high previous prices, spot transactions were light, but pre - holiday restocking demand supported prices [1] Inventory Data - The spot inventory was 107,482 tons, a - 1,414 - ton change from the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory was 19,003 tons, a - 831 - ton change; downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a + 3,007 - ton change; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a - 3,590 - ton change [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operations - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

吴志桥认为，在地缘、宏观及情绪面利多的共同助推下，原油系品种短期仍将保持强势。在他看来，短 期上行驱动能否延续，关键在于两大变量：一是北美寒潮的持续时间，二是中东地缘局势。"若美伊局 势进一步升级，将对原油供给产生重大扰动，推动产业链成本持续上涨；而2月CP价格预计环比上涨20 美元/吨，也将为进口成本提供支撑。"他说。 1月26日，国内期货市场上演"能源狂欢"，原油系品种集体上行。其中，LPG期货主力合约表现最为亮 眼，单日涨逾4%，领涨整个原油板块；高硫燃料油同样涨逾4%，燃油、低硫燃料油、SC原油等品种涨 幅均超2%。外盘方面，近期美国天然气期货2602合约持续暴涨，最近6个交易日累计涨逾100%。国际 油价上周涨近3%。 "多重因素叠加导致原油系品种集体走强。"格林大华期货能化负责人吴志桥表示，国内宏观预期改善带 动工业品价格普涨，资金在黑色、有色、能化等板块间快速切换。随着化工扩产周期临近尾声，供应结 构性短缺的预期升温，推动板块估值修复，为原油系品种价格上涨提供了充足的资金支撑。 "看向成本端，一方面，北美及东亚地区持续遭遇极端寒潮天气，民用取暖能源需求飙升，美国天然气 期货价格暴涨促使工业用户加 ...

隆众资讯燃气事业部总经理艾博则认为，当前液化气国内与国际价格走势已出现分歧，华东、山东等地 现货价格表现疲软。随着春节临近，工厂陆续放假导致需求减弱，炼厂供应充足且进入让利排库期，后 续国内液化气价格可能维持偏弱震荡走势。 新湖期货化工研究员宋亚楠则表示，本轮原油系品种整体上行趋势不可持续。寒流属于短期影响因素， 原油供应将维持宽松状态。地缘方面，美国与伊朗尚未发生直接正面冲突，不可控情景发生概率较低。 此外，LPG下游七成以上为化工需求，进口成本上涨导致PDH开工率回落较快，化工需求下降将抑制进 口量。 对于LPG大涨，吴志桥认为是"寒潮需求激增、中东供应收缩、市场情绪共振"三重利多叠加的结果。此 外，国际液化气现货市场未来两个月供应偏紧，科威特和美国现货供应紧张，叠加中国买家因合同货采 购量下降、现货采购增加引发的抢买热潮，进一步放大了价格弹性。值得注意的是，伊朗货源占我国丙 烷进口的17%、丁烷进口的47%，美国货源占我国LPG进口的25%，两地供应端的不确定性为价格提供 了额外支撑。 尽管当前原油系品种表现强势，但受访人士对后市走势的看法不一，市场多空博弈成为焦点。 吴志桥认为，在地缘、宏观及情绪面利 ...

Group 1 - The market closed at approximately 4135, indicating an acceptable outcome with more stocks rising than falling [2] - The index showed a strong mid-term trend, with short-term bullish sentiment prevailing, while the ChiNext index displayed a weak balance between bulls and bears [3] - Key resistance levels for the market are identified at 4192-4214, while the support range of 4120-4109 is critical and should not be breached [3] Group 2 - The strong and weak dividing line for the market is set at 4169, with pressure points at 4153, 4160, and 4179, and support levels at 4124, 4113, and 4103 [4] - For the ChiNext index, the strong and weak dividing line is at 3383, with resistance levels at 3353, 3367, and 3371, and support levels at 3304, 3290, and 3280 [4] - The mid to long-term outlook indicates that maintaining above the 60-day moving average is necessary to sustain a bull market, while staying above the 250-day moving average is essential to avoid reverting to a bear market [4]