结构性修正 2月2日，贵金属急跌行情仍未平息，多品种价格再度大幅跳水。其中，伦敦金现盘中一度失守4700、 4600、4500美元多个整数关口，距离跌穿4400美元也近在咫尺，盘中最大单日跌幅约10%。而就在金价 跌穿60日均线后，黄金也迎来明显反弹，截至18:00，伦敦金现价格回升至4700美元上方，日内跌幅收 窄至3.69%。自1月29日以来，伦敦金价自5598.75美元/盎司的历史高位跌去近700美元，三日内跌幅达 12.81%，行情的剧烈震荡也引发对后市方向的高度关注——黄金牛市能否延续？ 多空博弈 经历三天的明显下挫后，黄金的年内涨幅也已出现明显回吐。年初至1月29日，伦敦金现年内最大涨幅 一度逼近30%，而截至2月2日18:00，年内涨幅已回吐至9.1%。不过，从盘面表现来看，2月2日的K线显 示为长下影线，伦敦金价获得明显支撑，显示多空双方的激烈博弈。 针对此次黄金暴跌行情，有市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普1月30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯 文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧了此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认 为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 与此同时，美 ...

过去一周，基本金属和贵金属市场始终被强烈的投资者兴趣(尤其在中国)所主导，这源于市场对美元前 景的疑虑以及资金从货币和主权债券中轮动流出。上周五的下跌则是由美国总统特朗普提名以强硬抗击 通胀著称的凯文.沃什执掌美联储所触发。"一些基金在春节前退出市场，以规避如此高波动性下的风 险，"硕河资产管理公司分析师高银表示。"然而，支撑本轮上涨的中长期逻辑并未改变。中国投资者之 间存在着一致看涨的共识。" 一月是上海期货交易所有史以来金属交易最活跃的月份，铜的交易量在上周五的暴跌中飙升至创纪录高 位。由于需求前景强劲且供应紧张，铜被视为具有吸引力的押注标的，但上周的价格飙升甚至发生在中 国制造业活动停滞的背景下。 铜价进一步下跌，延续了上周五的深跌走势。此前数日，受中国市场多空力量激烈博弈推动，金属市场 经历剧烈震荡，交易员们正在研判后续走势。 周一，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价延续上周跌势，截至发稿，LME铜价下跌3.92%，至每吨12,653美 元，此前上周五已下跌3.4%。上周四，铜价曾飙升至每吨14,500美元以上的历史高位，随后在上周五的 盘中交易中跌破13,000美元。 ...

库存小幅去化，碳酸锂弱势震荡 市场分析 2026-01-29，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于169200元/吨，收于164820元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.24%。当 日成交量为521334手，持仓量为402347手，前一交易日持仓量410985手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为2460元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单30211手，较上个交易日变化245手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价162000-174000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价159000-170000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2250美元/吨，较前一日变化-20美元/吨。 碳酸锂昨日整体呈震荡走势，盘中由于库存数据发布显示去化，导致一度翻红，但多空博弈后尾盘依然收跌。近 期交易所为维护市场公平秩序，对碳酸锂品种各类违规行为保持高压态势，一定程度上抑制了行情的急涨急跌。 现货方面，由于下游库存水平较低，前期价格持续走高情况下，现货成交情况较为清淡，但节前存在补库需求， 对价格起到一定的支撑作用。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 3、 宏 ...

吴志桥认为，在地缘、宏观及情绪面利多的共同助推下，原油系品种短期仍将保持强势。在他看来，短 期上行驱动能否延续，关键在于两大变量：一是北美寒潮的持续时间，二是中东地缘局势。"若美伊局 势进一步升级，将对原油供给产生重大扰动，推动产业链成本持续上涨；而2月CP价格预计环比上涨20 美元/吨，也将为进口成本提供支撑。"他说。 1月26日，国内期货市场上演"能源狂欢"，原油系品种集体上行。其中，LPG期货主力合约表现最为亮 眼，单日涨逾4%，领涨整个原油板块；高硫燃料油同样涨逾4%，燃油、低硫燃料油、SC原油等品种涨 幅均超2%。外盘方面，近期美国天然气期货2602合约持续暴涨，最近6个交易日累计涨逾100%。国际 油价上周涨近3%。 "多重因素叠加导致原油系品种集体走强。"格林大华期货能化负责人吴志桥表示，国内宏观预期改善带 动工业品价格普涨，资金在黑色、有色、能化等板块间快速切换。随着化工扩产周期临近尾声，供应结 构性短缺的预期升温，推动板块估值修复，为原油系品种价格上涨提供了充足的资金支撑。 "看向成本端，一方面，北美及东亚地区持续遭遇极端寒潮天气，民用取暖能源需求飙升，美国天然气 期货价格暴涨促使工业用户加 ...

隆众资讯燃气事业部总经理艾博则认为，当前液化气国内与国际价格走势已出现分歧，华东、山东等地 现货价格表现疲软。随着春节临近，工厂陆续放假导致需求减弱，炼厂供应充足且进入让利排库期，后 续国内液化气价格可能维持偏弱震荡走势。 新湖期货化工研究员宋亚楠则表示，本轮原油系品种整体上行趋势不可持续。寒流属于短期影响因素， 原油供应将维持宽松状态。地缘方面，美国与伊朗尚未发生直接正面冲突，不可控情景发生概率较低。 此外，LPG下游七成以上为化工需求，进口成本上涨导致PDH开工率回落较快，化工需求下降将抑制进 口量。 对于LPG大涨，吴志桥认为是"寒潮需求激增、中东供应收缩、市场情绪共振"三重利多叠加的结果。此 外，国际液化气现货市场未来两个月供应偏紧，科威特和美国现货供应紧张，叠加中国买家因合同货采 购量下降、现货采购增加引发的抢买热潮，进一步放大了价格弹性。值得注意的是，伊朗货源占我国丙 烷进口的17%、丁烷进口的47%，美国货源占我国LPG进口的25%，两地供应端的不确定性为价格提供 了额外支撑。 尽管当前原油系品种表现强势，但受访人士对后市走势的看法不一，市场多空博弈成为焦点。 吴志桥认为，在地缘、宏观及情绪面利 ...

Group 1 - The market closed at approximately 4135, indicating an acceptable outcome with more stocks rising than falling [2] - The index showed a strong mid-term trend, with short-term bullish sentiment prevailing, while the ChiNext index displayed a weak balance between bulls and bears [3] - Key resistance levels for the market are identified at 4192-4214, while the support range of 4120-4109 is critical and should not be breached [3] Group 2 - The strong and weak dividing line for the market is set at 4169, with pressure points at 4153, 4160, and 4179, and support levels at 4124, 4113, and 4103 [4] - For the ChiNext index, the strong and weak dividing line is at 3383, with resistance levels at 3353, 3367, and 3371, and support levels at 3304, 3290, and 3280 [4] - The mid to long-term outlook indicates that maintaining above the 60-day moving average is necessary to sustain a bull market, while staying above the 250-day moving average is essential to avoid reverting to a bear market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price directions became clear again. Their upward drivers mainly come from the macro - level, with the weakening of the US dollar index and the market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune [1]. - In 2026, the fundamental outlook for platinum is stronger than that for palladium. The supply fluctuations of both are limited, and the comparison of their fundamentals is mainly from the consumption side. Palladium's consumption growth is expected to be insufficient due to the substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, while platinum has diversified consumption structures and increasing investment demand [2]. - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main investment direction for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Given the stronger fundamentals of platinum, some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. Currently, the price spread between them is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in the automotive and supply fields, and attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Since the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price fluctuations have narrowed, showing a triangular consolidation pattern. Platinum prices converged to around 615 yuan/gram, and palladium prices to around 480 yuan/gram. Recently, platinum prices have risen by nearly 9%, and some palladium contracts have increased by over 3% [1]. Macro - level Drivers - Although the US no longer imposes additional tariffs on key resources, which eases the structural contradictions of platinum and palladium, after the US's actions such as the arrest of Maduro and Trump's mention of forcefully annexing Greenland, the US - EU relationship has deteriorated. The European countries are selling US Treasury bonds, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune may further increase, and the balance between "money" and "goods" is tilting towards "goods", giving more premium space to platinum and palladium [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply structures of platinum and palladium are quite different, but their supply fluctuations are relatively limited. High prices have stimulated the production enthusiasm of mines, and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian palladium exports to China is minimal [2]. - **Demand Side**: Over 80% of palladium's end - consumption is for automobile exhaust catalysts. With the accelerated substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, its consumption growth is expected to be insufficient, and the supply - demand gap will significantly narrow in 2026. Platinum has a more diversified consumption structure. Automobile exhaust catalysts account for only 40% of its consumption, and investment and jewelry demand account for 30%. With the rise in platinum prices, investment demand is increasing, and the prospects of commercial aerospace and large - scale application of hydrogen energy also bring good consumption expectations. In 2026, the supply - demand gap may further widen [2]. Investment Strategy - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main strategy for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. As of January 23, the price spread between platinum and palladium has reached 185 yuan/gram, which is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in relevant fields. Attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3].

Report Overview - Report Type: Futures Research Report [2] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - **Copper**: This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly around the 100,000 level, with a significantly narrower amplitude than last week. It repeatedly fell below the 100,000 mark during the week and then stabilized and rebounded, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, market risk appetite rebounded with the reversal of the Greenland event, and the US dollar index was weakly running. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped to the 100,000 mark, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased. On Thursday, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly, the monthly spread rebounded slightly, and the import loss also narrowed, reflecting the increasing domestic industrial support. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 100,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: This week, the aluminum price fluctuated around the 24,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, the Greenland issue reversed, and US President Trump postponed tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the downstream remained in a wait-and-see mood. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 24,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: This week, the nickel price fluctuated above the 140,000 level, repeatedly falling below the 140,000 mark during the session and then bottoming out and rebounding. At the macro level, the market atmosphere warmed up during the week, and the non-ferrous metal sector stabilized as a whole. Recently, after the nickel price digested the supply disturbance in Indonesia, the intraday amplitude narrowed, the short-term strong industrial expectation drive declined, and the weak reality pattern remained unchanged. Technically, continuously monitor the support at the 140,000 mark [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - Lundin Mining Corporation achieved its production targets for various metals on a consolidated basis for the third consecutive year in 2025. In 2025, its copper production was 331,232 tons, gold production was 141,859 ounces, and nickel production at the Eagle mine was 9,907 tons. In Q4 2025, the company's copper production exceeded 87,000 tons and gold production exceeded 34,000 ounces. The Caserones mine achieved its highest quarterly copper production since acquisition in Q4, reaching 39,612 tons, mainly due to increased ore grade and cathode copper production. Looking ahead, Lundin expects its consolidated copper production to be 310,000 - 335,000 tons in 2026, 315,000 - 340,000 tons in 2027, and 290,000 - 315,000 tons in 2028. The cash cost guidance for 2026 is $1.90 - $2.10 per pound. The expected maintenance capital expenditure in 2026 is $550 million, expansion capital expenditure is about $445 million, and exploration expenditure is expected to be $53 million, mainly for in-mine and near-mine exploration [10]. - The operating rate of domestic scrap anode copper enterprises declined. This week, the operating rate of SMM scrap anode plate enterprises was 72.17%, a 3.73 percentage point decrease from the previous week. It is expected to decline by 0.83 percentage points to 71.34% next week [11]. - On January 22, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,200 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the 19th [12]. Aluminum - On January 22, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 138,856 tons, an increase of 101 tons from the previous trading day. In the past week, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 773 tons, a growth rate of 0.56%. In the past month, they increased by 62,767 tons, a growth rate of 82.49% [13]. - On January 22, Mysteeel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 19th [13]. Related Charts Copper - Copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, monthly spread of Shanghai copper, SHFE inventory, and inventory warehouse receipts are presented in the report [14][16][17] Aluminum - Aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai-London ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum bar inventory are presented in the report [25][27][29] Nickel - Nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory are presented in the report [37][39][41]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to 2211.00 yuan, a decrease of 1.60% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, domestic maintenance operations are stable, keeping supply at high levels, while Iranian supply remains low [1] - Demand is affected by reduced operating rates at MTO facilities in Zhejiang, with load dropping below 70% in East China, and attention is on the restart plan for Ningbo Fude [1] - January imports have significantly decreased, but MTO facility loads have also declined, leading to continued pressure on port inventory [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Everbright Futures expects methanol to maintain bottom oscillation due to the current supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical situation [1] - Yide Futures suggests that methanol may continue to operate within a range, with slight decreases in domestic operations and some facilities temporarily halted [1] - The future outlook remains uncertain, with potential impacts from Iranian geopolitical issues and inventory changes, indicating a possible continuation of range-bound trading [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong" due to unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillating and slightly strong". The stock market's optimism has cooled, and there is a need for shock consolidation after a sharp rebound. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged, and it is expected that the stock indices will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: slightly strong; overall view: oscillating and slightly strong; core logic: unchanged policy利好 expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: IF, IH, IC, IM. Intraday view: slightly strong; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillating and slightly strong. The total market turnover was 3054.7 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market turnover dropped to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of optimism. After a sharp rebound, there is a need for shock consolidation. In the long - term, the main logic of the upward movement of stock indices remains unchanged [5].