Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has slightly exceeded expectations in increasing production, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, in the context of the off - season, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that there will be no significant unilateral price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4] - For rubber, the market has different views from bulls and bears. The overall operation is to maintain a long - term bullish view in the medium - term and a neutral view in the short - term [6][8] - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction weakening. The market will still face pressure in the future [10] - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate with a downward bias [12] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [14] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] - For PX, after the maintenance season ends, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following the trend of crude oil [19] - For PTA, in July, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there will still be a slight reduction in inventory. The processing fee has support, but the demand side is under slight pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following PX [20] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is neutral year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities later [21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI's main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.18; Brent's main crude oil futures fell $0.34, or 0.49%, to $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures fell 1.20 yuan, or 0.24%, to 502.3 yuan [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the arrival inventory decreased by 0.65 million barrels to 208.07 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.99 million barrels to 87.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.14 million barrels to 100.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.17%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 4.14 million barrels to 188.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton to 2392 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +33 [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level, but enterprise profits are still good. Iranian plants have restarted, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a medium - high level. The demand side shows that port olefins have reduced their load, and traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rate declining [2] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 1748 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall enterprise profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. The demand for compound fertilizers continues to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Export container loading continues, and port inventory has increased significantly [4] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [6] - **Bull - Bear Views**: Bulls believe that factors such as weather and policies in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may not meet expectations [6] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than last week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than last week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons, or 0.6% [7][8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4892 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 122 (-16) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 99 (-2) yuan/ton [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Recently, there have been more maintenance activities, but production remains at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissions in the short term. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken [10] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has risen, the futures price has fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has risen, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand for three S products has declined seasonally [12] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged. The PE valuation has limited downward space [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision slightly exceeded expectations, and crude oil has oscillated downward. Traders' inventory has continued to increase at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has declined [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged [15] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars, with a basis of 254 yuan (-5) [17] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The Chinese operating load was 81%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%; the Asian operating load was 74.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. PTA operating load has increased slightly. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China increased year - on - year. Inventory decreased in May [17] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan, with a basis of 97 yuan (-30) [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operating load was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. Some plants have adjusted their loads. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Some downstream plants have carried out maintenance or production cuts. Social inventory decreased slightly in June [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) [21] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Port inventory has decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks have reignited, and oil prices have restarted their upward trend. The current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance, and it is not advisable to short - sell oil prices rashly even with the OPEC meeting approaching. Investors are advised to control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. However, the high valuation of methanol spot has compressed downstream profits. It is expected that imports in August will be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. The overall short - term contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. - For urea, with more maintenance devices and falling domestic demand, it has entered a range - bound operation. Although exports are ongoing and port inventories are rising, domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls focus on potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, the cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and both supply and demand are weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. - For styrene, the cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to inventory reduction driven by high - maintenance. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. - For PTA, the load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: WTI主力原油期货收跌0.35美元，跌幅0.52%，报67.18美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.30美元，跌幅0.43%，报68.85美元；INE主力原油期货收涨8.10元，涨幅1.63%，报506.3元[1]. - **Singapore ESG Oil Product Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 12.37 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7.18%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 4.54%; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.88 million barrels to 23.38 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.91%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 45.65 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [1]. Methanol - On July 3, the 09 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2414 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 46. It has low inventory and strong spot performance, but high spot valuation has compressed downstream profits. Imports in August are expected to be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. Urea - On July 3, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 23. More maintenance devices have led to a decline in production, and domestic demand is weakening. Exports are ongoing, but domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand due to a poor macro - outlook and the off - season. As of July 3, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.73%, down 1.89 percentage points from last week; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.04%, down 7.64 percentage points from last week. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][11][12]. PVC - The PVC09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4914 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 134 (+36) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate has decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. Styrene - Spot prices have fallen, and futures prices have risen, with a weakening basis. The cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - Futures prices have risen. After the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, crude oil prices have stabilized. Spot prices have fallen, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories have started to decline marginally, providing some support to prices. Demand is in the off - season, and the operating rate is declining. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. Polypropylene - Futures prices have risen. The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. Polyester PX - The PX09 contract fell 50 yuan to 6740 yuan, the PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars, and the basis was 259 (+7) yuan. The load in China and Asia has decreased. The maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 35 yuan to 4890 yuan, and the basis was 127 (-20) yuan. The load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4288 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 8 yuan to 4370 yuan, and the basis was 76 (+2) yuan. The supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current geopolitical risks have gradually subsided, but the short - term decline in oil prices has been significant. It is believed that the current oil prices have reached a reasonable range. Short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals. The reality is still low inventory, and the spot performance is relatively strong. The valuation of methanol spot itself is relatively high, and the downstream profits have been significantly compressed. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply is starting to decline, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the autumn will gradually start. Exports are expected to continue. It is believed that the supply - demand situation of urea may improve slightly, and the short - term downward space for prices is relatively limited. One can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, there is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber. NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - For styrene, the cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [15]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies, but beware of ethane import risks [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.56, or 0.86%, to $65.53; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.28; INE main crude oil futures rose 1.10 yuan, or 0.22%, to 499.4 yuan [2]. - **Data**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 7.61 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.54 million barrels to 1.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 24.94%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 9.13 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 18.37 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 6.49% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 270 yuan/ton, and the basis was +136 [3]. - **Analysis**: It has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. The downstream profits have been compressed, and it is expected that the port will not accumulate a large amount of inventory before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was +39 [5]. - **Analysis**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, and domestic demand has weakened. Exports are continuing, and port inventory is rising. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and one can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: There is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber, and NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls are optimistic due to the expected production reduction, while bears are pessimistic due to the poor macro - outlook and weak demand. The tire start - up rate has increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations [8][9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 68 yuan to 4821 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), the basis was - 81 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 93 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost side has some upward pressure, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the exports are expected to weaken. The market is expected to operate weakly [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7249 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was 176 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the price will be bearish in June [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6794 yuan, the PX CFR fell 13 dollars to 861 dollars, and the basis was 305 yuan (- 110 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 160 yuan (- 34 yuan) [18]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4980 yuan, the basis was 175 yuan (- 49 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 126 yuan (- 18 yuan) [20]. - **Analysis**: In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 4273 yuan, the East China spot price fell 6 yuan to 4328 yuan, the basis was 69 yuan (+ 5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 21 yuan (+ 6 yuan) [21]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (including coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" for the market trend and "long (short)" for trading strategy [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, environmental inspections at coal mines have led to production cuts in many coal mines in Shanxi, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have carried out moderate replenishment, driving a phased improvement in the demand for some coal types. However, overall, during the seasonal off - peak season, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively loose, and the rise of coking coal and coke is regarded as a phased rebound [1] - Coking coal and coke have seen an increase in long - position holdings and an upward price movement, but the futures price has a significant premium over the warehouse - receipt cost. It is not recommended to chase the high price [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2509 closed at 819.5, up 1.86% from the previous trading day's close. The main coke contract J2509 closed at 1395.5, up 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, Jm2509 closed at 833.0, up 1.65% from the daily close, and J2509 closed at 1411.0, up 1.11% from the daily close [1] Important Information - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 82.5%, a decrease of 2.0% compared with the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.85 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons compared with the previous period. The raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons compared with the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with the previous period, and the clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a decrease of 361,000 tons compared with the previous period [1] - This week, the output of five major steel products was 880,990 tons, an increase of 12,480 tons compared with the previous week. The total steel inventory was 1.34003 million tons, an increase of 1,140 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 433,520 tons, an increase of 7,740 tons compared with the previous period, and the social inventory was 906,510 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons compared with the previous week [1] Market Logic - Recently, environmental inspections at coal mines have led to production cuts in many coal mines in Shanxi, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have carried out moderate replenishment, driving a phased improvement in the demand for some coal types. But overall, during the seasonal off - peak season, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively loose, and the rise of coking coal and coke is regarded as a phased rebound [1] Trading Strategy - The reason for the recommendation is that coking coal and coke have seen an increase in long - position holdings and an upward price movement, but the futures price has a significant premium over the warehouse - receipt cost. It is not recommended to chase the high price [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current negotiation between the US and Iran shows a sign of easing, which is expected to put pressure on oil prices. However, considering the current risk - return ratio, it is not suitable to short - sell, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For methanol, due to sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there is no obvious price trend. Given the low basis at the same period, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is recommended to take a short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, in the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June due to reduced new production capacity and inventory reduction [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned production capacity release and seasonal weakening of demand [19]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. - For ethylene glycol, the port inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures rose $1.52, or 2.40%, to $64.77; Brent's main crude oil futures rose $1.36, or 2.08%, to $66.65; INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.52%, to 466.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 8.48 million barrels, a 5.66% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.13 million barrels to 14.96 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 6.83 million barrels, a 6.44% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.28 million barrels to 5.28 million barrels, a 5.58% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.05 million barrels to 6.63 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; the total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 42.19 million barrels, a 1.45% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 2264 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 48 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and is at a high level in the same period, with corporate profits falling. Demand has slightly improved, but the overall supply is still abundant, and there may be a further decline [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1720 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 100 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, while demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are in a volatile consolidation [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls expect production cuts due to weather and policies in Southeast Asia, while bears believe in weak demand and potential over - supply [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 4790 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4700 (+ 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 90 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 75 (- 8) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Cost is stable, production is expected to increase, while downstream demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 7066 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7135 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of 69 yuan/ton, weakening by 22 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: New production capacity in June is small, and inventory is being reduced. However, it is the seasonal off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain volatile [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 6925 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 195 yuan/ton, weakening by 14 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There is a planned production capacity release in June, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 16 yuan to 6556 yuan, the PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 818 dollars, and the basis was 218 yuan (- 34), with a 9 - 1 spread of 180 yuan (- 2) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The maintenance season is ending, de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4652 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan, the basis was 225 yuan (+ 9), and the 9 - 1 spread was 136 yuan (- 2) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is still in the maintenance season, demand is stable, and it will continue to de - stock. The processing fee is supported, and it is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 22 yuan to 4261 yuan, the East China spot price fell 17 yuan to 4408 yuan, the basis was 123 (- 7), and the 9 - 1 spread was 21 yuan (- 10) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Given the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, lack of clear OPEC production increase data, and the support from shale oil, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiation is successful. Short - term, it's better to stay on the sidelines for crude oil [1]. - For methanol, considering the ample supply and weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. One - sided trading can focus on short positions on rallies, and for cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. One - sided trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - For rubber, it shows a strong - side oscillation. Short - term long or neutral thinking is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][11]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short - term, due to the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven to supply - driven decline. With no new capacity planned in June, the price may oscillate [15]. - For polypropylene, with planned capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the maintenance season is ending, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season on the supply side is ending [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收涨0.51美元，涨幅0.81%，报63.25美元；布伦特主力原油期货收涨0.38美元，涨幅0.59%，报65.29美元；INE主力原油期货收跌4.50元，跌幅0.96%，报463.7元 [6]. - 新加坡油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.08百万桶至13.10百万桶，环比累库0.62%；柴油库存去库0.69百万桶至9.24百万桶，环比去库6.91%；燃料油库存累库0.24百万桶至22.58百万桶，环比累库1.09%；总成品油去库0.36百万桶至44.92百万桶，环比去库0.80% [6]. Methanol - 6月5日09合约跌11元/吨，报2259元/吨，现货涨8元/吨，基差+51 [3]. - 供应端开工见底回升至同期高位，企业利润高位回落，预计短期供应维持高位；需求端港口MTO装置开工回到高位，传统需求开工回升，需求小幅好转，港口累库慢价格偏强，内地供增需弱价格走低，港口与内地价差扩大 [3]. Urea - 6月5日09合约跌52元/吨，报1722元/吨，现货跌10元/吨，基差+111 [5]. - 供应维持高位，日产持续走高；需求端复合肥夏季肥结束，企业开工回落，对尿素需求减少，企业预收订单回落，库存累至同期高位，盘面价格下跌 [5]. Rubber - NR和RU偏强震荡 [9]. - 多头认为东南亚尤其是泰国的天气、橡胶林现状和政策可能助于减产；空头认为宏观预期转差，需求平淡处于季节性淡季，高价会刺激新增供应，减产幅度可能不及预期 [10]. - 截至6月5日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.45%，较上周走低1.33个百分点，较去年同期走高2.56个百分点；半钢胎企业开工负荷为73.49%，较上周走低4.39个百分点，较去年同期走低6.75个百分点，海外新接订单不佳 [11]. - 截至6月1日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128万吨，环比下降2.8万吨，降幅2.1%；深色胶社会总库存为76.3万吨，环比下降3.4%；浅色胶社会总库存为51.7万吨，环比降0.1% [11]. PVC - PVC09合约下跌87元，报4747元，常州SG - 5现货价4680元/吨，基差 - 67元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 67元/吨 [13]. - 成本端持稳，本周整体开工率78.2%，环比上升2%；需求端下游开工46.2%，环比下降0.8%；厂内库存38.5万吨，社会库存59.8万吨，均有下降 [13]. - 企业利润压力大，检修季接近尾声，后续产量预期回升，有装置投产预期；下游开工疲弱转淡季，出口签单转弱，成本端电石下跌，估值支撑减弱，短期预计偏弱震荡 [13]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格无变动，PE估值向上空间有限 [15]. - 二季度供应端新增产能大，供应承压；上中游库存去库对价格支撑有限，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单递减，开工率震荡下行，6月无新增产能投产计划，价格或维持震荡 [15]. - 主力合约收盘价7034元/吨，下跌15元/吨，现货7125元/吨无变动，基差91元/吨，走强15元/吨；上游开工76.52%，环比下降1.10%；生产企业库存51.77万吨，环比累库3.57万吨，贸易商库存5.83万吨，环比累库0.01万吨；下游平均开工率39.2%，环比下降0.10%；LL9 - 1价差29元/吨，环比缩小2元/吨 [15]. Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格上涨但跌幅小于PE [16]. - 6月供应端有220万吨计划产能投放，需求端下游开工率随塑编订单见顶后或季节性震荡下行，预计6月价格偏空 [16]. - 主力合约收盘价6911元/吨，下跌37元/吨，现货7120元/吨，上涨5元/吨，基差209元/吨，走强42元/吨；上游开工78.31%，环比上涨0.65%；生产企业库存60.51万吨，环比累库5.18万吨，贸易商库存14.76万吨，环比累库1.15万吨，港口库存6.64万吨，环比累库0.15万吨；下游平均开工率50.29%，环比下降0.43%；LL - PP价差123元/吨，环比扩大22元/吨 [16]. Polyester PX - PX09合约下跌38元，报6540元，PX CFR下跌5美元，报820美元，按人民币中间价折算基差252元，9 - 1价差182元 [18]. - 中国负荷82.1%，环比上升4.1%；亚洲负荷72%，环比上升2.6%；辽阳石化、中海油惠州等装置重启或提负荷，海外部分装置有重启和检修 [18]. - 5月韩国PX出口中国30.3万吨，同比下降8.7万吨；4月底库存451万吨，月环比下降17万吨；PXN为263美元，石脑油裂差87美元 [18]. - 检修季结束，6月去库放缓，三季度因PTA新装置投产重新进入去库周期，终端纺服出口预期偏强，聚酯库存低，原料端负反馈压力小，短期估值升至中性偏高水平，预计震荡 [18]. PTA - PTA09合约下跌26元，报4644元，华东现货下跌20元/吨，报4845元，基差216元，9 - 1价差138元 [19]. - PTA负荷79.7%，环比上升3.3%，部分装置重启或推后；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [19]. - 5月30日社会库存（除信用仓单）220.8万吨，环比去库9.4万吨；现货加工费上涨8元，至389元，盘面加工费下跌1元，至354元 [19]. - 供给端处于检修季，需求端聚酯化纤库存压力小，预期持续去库，加工费有支撑，绝对价格预计震荡 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - EG09合约下跌9元，报4283元，华东现货上涨8元，报4425元，基差130元，9 - 1价差31元 [21]. - 供给端负荷60%，环比上升0.2%，部分装置有检修和重启；海外部分装置重启；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [21]. - 进口到港预报10.8万吨，华东出港6月4日0.77万吨，出库下降，港口库存62.1万吨，去库6.6万吨；石脑油制利润为 - 362元，国内乙烯制利润 - 455元，煤制利润1177元；成本端乙烯持平，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨 [21]. - 产业处于去库阶段，终端出口偏强，聚酯化纤库存压力小，但估值修复大，供给端检修季结束，有估值回调风险 [21].