Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 80,000. The market is waiting for US economic data in August. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support, but the weak economic outlook in the US puts pressure on the upside of copper prices [1]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply - side surplus and a weak demand - side, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, low inventory levels provide some support. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Nickel - The nickel market shows little change in fundamentals. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [7]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, the strategy should be to short on rallies; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. The current tin ore supply remains tight [8]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract operating in the range of 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and nickel - iron dynamics [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the price range of 3000 - 3400 this week. For aluminum, in the short - term, prices are expected to remain under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - alloy market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, with prices fluctuating around 85,000. Operators are advised to be cautious and can try to go long lightly on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,475 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.01% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.27%. The import loss was - 1893 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased by 11.09% week - on - week [4]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 123,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The import loss of futures decreased by 31.99% [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price fell to 270,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 47.91% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 6.98% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,250 yuan/ton. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.16% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [9]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The import loss decreased by 64 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production increased by 5.40% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.11% [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the weekly social inventory increased by 5.83% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.85%. The 2509 - 2511 monthly spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% month - on - month, and the total inventory decreased by 2.01% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the macro - aspect, the path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is unclear. Inflation has not slowed down due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude. The decision of the September FOMC meeting will depend on two employment and inflation reports. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is due to expire on August 12, with different statements from China and the US. - Fundamentally, during the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand, and inventories are accumulating. However, after the decline in copper prices, spot trading has improved marginally, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices. The tight supply at the mine end and the resilience at the demand end support prices. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The US economy is still weakening, capping the upside of copper prices, but the downside is also limited. In the short term, copper prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, as the warehouse receipt volume has gradually recovered, the center of the alumina futures price has moved down, and the spot - futures arbitrage space has narrowed. Traders are expected to be relatively cautious in inquiring and purchasing. Sellers' quotes remain firm, but downstream acceptance of high - priced alumina is average. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure. However, alumina plants' profitability is acceptable, and there is no strong intention to cut production. The recovery of production capacity and new capacity additions will increase spot supply. The market will remain slightly oversupplied, and the future core driver lies in the game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract price of alumina will fluctuate widely in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 this week. - The aluminum price was fluctuating at a high level yesterday. There was a lot of selling in the market, but downstream purchasing willingness was low during the off - season, resulting in a large discount. The macro - environment in China is positive for consumption, and the "anti - involution" sentiment supports the aluminum price. However, the repeated changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum has led to an increase in inventory. On the demand side, the real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports are declining, and orders are weakening after the end of the PV installation rush. Only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remains resilient. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 this month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. Most of the market transactions were for spot - futures arbitrageurs to hedge with SHFE aluminum futures, and terminal transactions were sluggish. Social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, approaching full capacity in some places. - On the supply side, affected by the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import of scrap aluminum is restricted due to the price inversion and Thailand's policy. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing some cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, the traditional off - season has suppressed demand. Orders from the terminal automotive industry are weak. Downstream die - casting enterprises are bearish on the market outlook, maintain a low - inventory rigid - procurement strategy, and have a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in a light trading volume. The weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19,200 - 20,200 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton. However, the global mine production in May and the domestic mine production growth in July were both lower than expected. - Smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal average. The loose supply at the mine end has gradually spread to the smelting end, and domestic refined zinc production in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side has entered the seasonal off - season, with average terminal consumption. Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, and the spot premium has weakened. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries remain at a seasonal low. - The absolute inventory level is low, and LME zinc inventories are still being depleted. Fundamentally, the combination of loose supply and weak demand is insufficient to support a continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. For zinc prices to continue to rebound, continuous inventory depletion and a continuous expectation of interest rate cuts without an overseas recession are needed. A downward breakthrough requires a stronger - than - expected TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [7][8]. Tin - On the supply side, the supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelters' processing fees remain low. In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, due to the rainy season, earthquakes, and mine preparations, actual ore output is expected to be postponed until the fourth quarter. - On the demand side, after the end of the PV installation rush, PV tin - bar orders in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. In South China, the electronics consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of future US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption - stimulus policies, future demand is expected to be weak. - Overall, the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may be supported [12]. Nickel - Yesterday, the nickel futures on the SHFE maintained a relatively strong trend, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed slightly. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - On the industrial side, the spot price of nickel rose yesterday, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. Recently, the price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron market is calm, with supply expected to be loose. The mainstream nickel - iron quotation has risen to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Domestic iron plants are mostly operating at reduced loads, but the oversupply pressure of nickel - iron still exists, with short - term cost support. - The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement. Terminal demand is weak. In the new - energy sector, downstream ternary material producers have low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have decreased. - Overall, the sentiment and fundamentals have changed little, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, capping the upside of the nickel price. In the short term, the futures is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures price rose overall. The expectation of the peak season has strengthened support, and spot agents and traders have raised prices, driving up terminal purchasing sentiment and improving market transactions. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - The price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron price is strong, with the mainstream quotation rising to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Iron plants are operating at reduced loads, and steel mills' profit improvement has weakened the pressure on raw - material prices. The chromium - iron price is weak, and the spot price may still decline slightly in the future. - Stainless - steel plants are actively reducing production to cope with insufficient demand, but the reduction is moderate and not sustainable, so the short - term supply pressure in the market is difficult to ease. The reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. In the traditional downstream sectors, it is the off - season, and the growth rate of emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment, and although traders have more bargaining space, trading volume is still difficult to increase. The reduction of stainless - steel social inventory is slow, and warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. - Overall, the sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still constrained by weak spot demand. In the short term, the futures price is likely to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, all lithium - carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, mainly affected by the news that the Shixiawo mine in Jiangxi confirmed to be shut down over the weekend. The market sentiment continued to ferment, and the main contract LC2511 rose to 81,000. There is still speculation about whether other mines in Jiangxi will be affected, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy guidance on mine production. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance is tight. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply remains relatively sufficient. Last week's production data rebounded again, but the marginal growth rate of supply has slowed down recently. Demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Cell orders are acceptable, and material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than market expectations. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Last week, inventories increased across the board. Upstream smelters continued to reduce inventories, while downstream replenishment increased significantly, and other trading links remained stable with a slight decrease. Overall, after the expectations at the mine end are realized, the upward space of the futures price is more determined by capital sentiment. Driven by continuous sentiment, the futures price is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. Recently, attention should be paid to the evolution of market sentiment and the actual adjustment of supply [19]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [7][8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price remained unchanged at 268,000 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Different metals showed different changes in month - to - month spreads, such as copper's 2508 - 2509 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day; aluminum's 2508 - 2509 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1][4]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7][8]. - **Tin**: In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous month [12]. - **Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; in Indonesia (Qinglong), it was 36.00 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains unclear, inflation hasn't slowed due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell adopts a wait - and - see attitude towards the subsequent interest rate cut path. The result of Sino - US trade negotiations is an extension of 90 days, and the tariff result is yet to be further negotiated. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on US electrolytic copper has failed, leading to a sharp decline in US copper prices and the end of the US - LME copper arbitrage. The upward momentum for non - US copper prices has ended. - During the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand. However, after the copper price drops, the spot trading improves marginally. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. - Without a clear interest rate cut path and significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the failure of the US copper tariff, the non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3900 yuan/ton, but the global mine output growth in May and the domestic mine output growth in June are both lower than expected. - With TC entering an upward cycle and smelting profits being continuously repaired, smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal level. The supply of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side is significantly suppressed by the rising disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries are weak due to factors such as the rise and fall of ferrous metal prices and the off - season of demand. - The low spot premium and low inventory level provide price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter a replenishment cycle. In the short term, with the landing of domestic and foreign macro events, without substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations and Sino - US economic macro expectations, the zinc price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure, and the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory is at a historical low, which supports the short - term price rebound and reduces the basis. However, the impact of "anti - involution" on the alumina industry is minimal except for the emotional aspect. The recovery of production capacity and new production due to profit repair will jointly increase the spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3000 - 3400 in the short term. - For aluminum, yesterday's aluminum price remained volatile. In the off - season, the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the market discount continues to expand. The domestic consumption stimulus atmosphere is still strong, and the "anti - involution" has a certain supporting effect on the aluminum price, but the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty to the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio drives the inventory to bottom out. The demand side is weak, with weak construction and real - estate completion, declining household appliance exports, and weakening orders after the end of photovoltaic installations. Only the demand for new - energy vehicle lightweighting remains resilient. In the face of the pressure of inventory replenishment expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, the aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 this month [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy disk price follows the aluminum price and fluctuates. The market trading is mainly for hedging by spot - futures traders to shrink the aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference, and the terminal trading is sluggish. The social inventory in the main consumption areas has increased significantly, and areas such as Ningbo and Foshan are close to full storage. - On the supply side, due to the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import price is inverted, and Thailand has stopped issuing licenses to recycling factories, resulting in a shortage of scrap aluminum supply in the current market, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, it is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. The orders in the terminal automotive industry are weak, and downstream die - casting enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the market, maintaining a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy and having a strong willingness to bargain. The weak demand situation will continue to suppress the upward momentum of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The domestic tin ore imports in June remained at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, and it is expected to start shipping around the end of August. - On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the orders for photovoltaic tin strips in the East China region have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The electronic consumption in the South China region has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of soldering enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of the US tariff policy on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for the tin price, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the weak data on the US employment and factory orders have increased the market's expectation of the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. In China, during the policy window period of the meeting, seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization. - At the industrial level, yesterday's spot price continued to rise, and the premiums of various brands remained stable. The ore price is mainly stable. Philippine mines are mostly in the shipping stage. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore is mostly around CIF42, and that of 1.4% nickel ore is mostly around CIF50. The domestic iron mills mostly maintain reduced - load production, and the supply of nickel ore still needs time to recover, so nickel iron still has cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. In the new - energy sector, the downstream ternary materials have a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have increased. - In the short term, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals change little. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - Macroscopically, similar to nickel, the weak US data increases the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, and China has introduced relevant policies. - At the industrial level, the ore price is mainly stable. The market negotiation range has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron quotation has risen to 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold). Iron mills are operating at a loss and reducing production, and steel mills are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude in raw material procurement. The chromium - iron price is weakly stable, and there is still a small room for callback in the spot price due to the decline in the procurement price of chromium - iron steel mills. The supply of stainless - steel mills has decreased due to maintenance, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce. The terminal demand remains weak, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, while the growth rate of the emerging downstream is generally expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and although the bargaining space for traders has increased, the trading volume is still difficult to increase. The social inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, and the warehouse receipts continue to decrease. - In the short term, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy directions and supply - demand rhythms [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate disk rose overall. There was a lot of news about mine shutdowns, and the market's expectation of short - term production suspension has fermented. The mine - right approval is approaching the deadline, but the actual result has not been clearly determined. The uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance situation meets expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and although some production lines are under maintenance, the supply remains sufficient. The production data decreased last week, and the marginal growth rate of supply has slightly slowed down. The demand performance is stable, and the seasonal characteristics are fading. The battery cell orders are okay, and the material production scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expectation. However, due to the off - season and inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Recently, the market sentiment and news - related disturbances dominate the disk trend, and the trading core has shifted to the mine end. There are many matters to be verified in the news. The main price center is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [13][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.34% to 78,350 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 20.82% to 660 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 increased by 1.51 to - 49.25 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 120.22 to - 142 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.15 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. - The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton; the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% to 52.16 million tons. - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 2.36 to 71.73%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production increased by 1.98 to 29.29%. - The domestic social inventory increased by 12.97% to 13 million tons; the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.34% to 8.11 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.20% to 7.25 million tons. - The LME inventory increased by 1.48% to 15.61 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 0.39% to 26.22 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 96.18% to 2.03 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Related Indicators - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,330 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 75.56 to - 1474 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.01 to 8.07 [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 130 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 145 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the refined zinc export volume was 0.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. - The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.65 to 56.77%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 2.79 to 48.24%; the zinc oxide operating rate increased by 0.14 to 56.13%. - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 3.47% to 10.73 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 3.79% to 9.7 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.54% to 20,630 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 39.9 to - 1294 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.02 to 8.03. - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 19.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 million tons. - The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.99% to 50.00%; the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.32% to 61.80%; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate remained unchanged at 63.20%; the aluminum foil operating rate decreased by 1.01% to 68.90%; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1.11% to 54.60%. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.82% to 56.40 million tons; the LME inventory increased by 0.41% to 46.8 million tons [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC15, SMM East China ADC12, SMM South China ADC12, SMM Northeast ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,150 yuan/ton; the price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton;

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Copper - The market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut expectations in the US, but the timing of the cut is uncertain. In China, the spread of anti - involution sentiment is important for copper, and the policy's impact on smelting capacity clearance needs attention. The market's positive macro - sentiment boosts copper prices, but short - term sentiment ebbing risks should be noted. - On the fundamental side, copper demand weakens significantly as prices rebound, and combined with the traditional off - season effect, there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. However, China's macro - policies and low inventories support the copper price. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "looser supply expectations and weaker actual demand", and copper pricing returns to macro trading. The short - term positive anti - involution macro - sentiment boosts prices, but a callback risk due to sentiment ebbing should be watched. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the anti - involution policy brings expectations of capacity elimination and the risk of a squeeze due to a sharp reduction in warehouse receipts, which is beneficial to prices. But the rumor of large alumina plants'复产 also suppresses prices, and the market shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, the tight supply of bauxite in Guinea and low alumina futures warehouse receipts support price rebounds, and the basis weakens, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window. In the medium term, due to limited backward capacity, the impact of anti - involution on the alumina industry is mainly emotional. The restored and newly - added production capacity will increase spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400, and risks such as Guinea's policy changes and anti - involution policy follow - up should be noted. - For aluminum, the domestic consumption - stimulating atmosphere and anti - involution sentiment support aluminum prices, but the weakened Fed interest - rate cut expectations and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio leads to a bottom - probing trend in inventories. On the demand side, construction and real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports decline, and orders weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, with only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remaining resilient. In general, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, and the reference range for the main contract next week is 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum alloy market remained in a situation of weak supply and demand last week, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. Market transactions were mainly based on the strategy of spot - futures traders stocking up and hedging on the Shanghai Aluminum Futures to narrow the aluminum - alloy price spread, and terminal transactions were sluggish. The social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, and some areas were close to full capacity. On the supply side, low - priced overseas goods continued to impact the market; on the demand side, it was continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, with weak orders in the terminal automotive industry. Downstream die - casting enterprises generally had a pessimistic view of the future market, maintained a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy, and had a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in light market transactions. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to suppress price increases. It is expected that the market will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,400 - 20,200 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton. However, the global zinc ore production in May and China's domestic zinc ore production growth in June were both lower than expected. The improvement in refined zinc supply lags behind that of the ore end, but with the TC in an upward cycle and the continuous repair of smelting profits, smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter operating rate is at a high level in recent years, stronger than the seasonal norm. The expectation of loose refined zinc supply still exists. - On the demand side, the strengthening of the zinc price on the futures market significantly suppresses demand, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. Among the three primary processing industries, only the galvanizing sector performs well due to the black - series anti - involution policy, while the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide industries enter the seasonal off - season, and demand weakens. The center of the spot premium continues to decline, and the low absolute inventory level provides price support, but domestic social inventories may enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. In the short term, under the background of China's anti - involution macro - policy, the positive macro - sentiment leads to a rebound in zinc prices, but the impact of the zinc consumption off - season and the expectation of loose supply are insufficient to support continuous price increases. A callback risk after the sentiment ebbs should be noted, and low inventories provide price support. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual tin ore supply remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue to be at a low level. In June, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, with shipments expected to start around the end of August. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, photovoltaic tin - strip orders in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. In South China, the electronic consumption entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises declined significantly. Considering the subsequent impact of US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of China's consumption - stimulating policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the continuous decrease in LME tin inventories, the tin price is strongly oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment and the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [14]. Nickel - Last week, the Shanghai nickel futures market showed a strong - side oscillatory trend, and the central price of the main contract increased. The macro - sentiment provided a boost, while the fundamentals changed little. The Fed's attitude is currently wait - and - see, and the first interest - rate cut is expected to be in September. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline. In China, the anti - involution atmosphere is strong, which boosts commodities. - At the industrial level, the spot price increased, and the spot trading volume of refined nickel was average last week. The premiums of various brands of resources remained stable. Recently, the nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is still +24. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to production cuts at some smelters in Indonesian industrial parks, and the supply is currently relatively loose. The nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement, and terminal demand is relatively weak. The nickel sulfate price is relatively stable, but the downstream ternary materials industry has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain at a high level, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories remain stable. Overall, the positive market sentiment boosts the commodity sector, the nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market showed an overall strong - side oscillatory trend, and the spot price increased slightly. The macro - sentiment boosted the market, and spot - end agents and traders mostly maintained stable prices for sales, but market transactions were still average. In the macro - aspect, the US inflation expectation is currently mild, and overseas tariff risks still exist. The Fed's attitude is wait - and - see, while the domestic atmosphere is positive, with a series of favorable policies introduced, and the government's continuous increase in infrastructure investment boosts market confidence. - The nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is +24, and the supply is currently relatively loose. Driven by the improved sentiment, the nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. Stainless - steel mill maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, but the actual production reduction of steel mills is less than expected, and normal production is maintained during the postponed period, so the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Terminal demand is relatively weak. Due to the plum - rain season and continuous high - temperature weather, the recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Traders have more room for price negotiation but still struggle to increase trading volume. This year, the reduction of stainless - steel social inventories has been slow, and warehouse receipts have continued to decrease. Overall, recently, the market has been mainly driven by policies and macro - sentiment, and the spot - demand drive on the fundamentals is not obvious. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market rose significantly. The results of the Jiangxi mining - right approval are still to be verified, and some Qinghai salt - lake production capacities are at risk of reduction or suspension due to over - mining, increasing the volatility at the ore end. Coupled with the overall anti - involution background, the commodity expectations are boosted, and the market sentiment is positive. As of the close on July 25, the main contract 2509 closed at 80,520 yuan/ton. The lithium - ore price has accelerated its rise, and supply remains sufficient. Last week's production data decreased slightly. Demand is relatively stable, the seasonal characteristics are less obvious, battery - cell orders are okay, and the material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expected. However, due to the off - season and the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The entire industry chain is in an inventory - accumulation state, and the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down last week. The high - level inventory of upstream smelters is being reduced, while the inventory in other downstream trading links continues to accumulate. The fundamental logic has not changed, but in the short term, the combination of macro - boosting and news - uncertainty dominates the market trend. Funds are concentrated in the market for trading, and the market atmosphere is gradually pricing in the balance adjustment after the supply reduction or suspension. The trading core has shifted to the ore end. Recently, there are many market variables, which may amplify market fluctuations. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is driven by funds, and there are many unverified news items. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and wait and see. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and supply adjustments [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 841 yuan/ton, down 35.54% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread is - 53.68 US dollars/ton, down 3.76 US dollars from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 483 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan from the previous day; the Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) is 50 US dollars/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory was 560,900 tons, down 23.23% from the previous week; the electrolytic - copper rod operating rate was 69.37%, down 4.85 percentage points from the previous week; the recycled - copper rod operating rate was 27.31%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic social inventory was 114,200 tons, down 20.31% from the previous week; the bonded - area inventory was 82,200 tons, up 4.31% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 73,400 tons, down 13.17% from the previous week; the LME inventory was 128,500 tons, up 2.97% from the previous day; the COMEX inventory was 247,900 short tons, up 0.96% from the previous day; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 16,100 tons, down 96.72% from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,677 yuan/ton, down 100.8 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.85, down 0.01 from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 65 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, down 13.89% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 19,600 tons, down 39.69% from the previous month. The aluminum - profile operating rate was 50.50%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - cable operating rate was 61.60%, down 0.65% from the previous month; the aluminum - plate and strip operating rate was 63.20%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - foil operating rate was 69.60%, unchanged from the previous month; the primary aluminum - alloy operating rate was 54.00%, unchanged from the previous month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 510,000 tons, up 3.66% from the previous day; the LME inventory was 451,000 tons, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 spread is 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2512

Group 1 - The report identifies three recent market phenomena: the Shanghai Composite Index's three consecutive days of gains reaching a new high, cautious sentiment among institutional investors, and a rapid reversal in investor sentiment leading to a more optimistic outlook after initial profit-taking [1][2][3]. - The core explanation for the recent market movements is attributed to a return to volatility trading, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index dropping to 18.2%, the lowest in nearly a decade, which was largely overlooked by investors [2][4]. - Low volatility reflects a balance of power between bulls and bears, indicating that investors have digested market factors sufficiently, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][4]. Group 2 - The report suggests that a new low in volatility does not guarantee market direction, as future volatility is expected to rise, influenced by whether factors lead to a "Risk-On" or "Risk-Off" environment [4][10]. - Historical patterns show that when volatility falls below 30%, it often leads to a rebound, with past instances resulting in either upward trends or significant corrections depending on the prevailing market conditions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the market's direction ultimately depends on key variables that disrupt the current balance of power, with recent positive catalysts including reduced Middle East risks and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 3 - Different types of funds approach volatility trading differently, with quantitative funds utilizing various tools to trade volatility directly, while discretionary funds adjust positions based on directional judgments [8][9]. - The report highlights the importance of distinguishing between short, medium, and long-term trading logic, noting that short-term fluctuations are often misattributed to medium-term fundamentals, overlooking the significance of mean reversion trading [9][10]. - The report concludes that understanding volatility and its implications for trading strategies remains insufficient, with a focus on growth sectors such as AI, cultural media, and innovative pharmaceuticals being recommended for investment [10].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The market narrative has shifted from focusing solely on the White House's policy impacts to a broader consideration of fundamental economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[6] - Inflation risks are entering a critical observation phase, with year-to-date inflation unexpectedly declining, yet this has not significantly influenced asset pricing[6][20] - Economic growth indicators show a historical divergence between soft (miss) and hard (beat) data, with expectations of convergence in the future[28] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The average tariff rate increase of approximately 10% could lead to a corresponding 1% rise in inflation, with potential significant impacts on consumer prices following tariff implementations[20] - Despite resilient income growth, consumer spending has declined, with disposable income growth at 5.2% and consumption growth falling to 5.4%[40] - The consumer confidence decline is leading to a significant disparity between income resilience and spending weakness, indicating potential future consumption slowdowns[40] Group 3: Employment and Economic Trends - The employment market is showing signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls adding only 139,000 jobs in May, primarily in the service sector, while manufacturing jobs have decreased[34] - The NFIB small business optimism index indicates a downward trend in hiring plans, suggesting a potential decline in job vacancies and overall employment data[37] - The economic slowdown is expected to manifest more clearly post-tariff implementation, with rising inflation eroding income and accelerating demand decline[47] Group 4: Policy and Fiscal Reform - The new fiscal reform, termed the "Big Beautiful Bill," is projected to increase the deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for market dynamics[51] - The anticipated fiscal reform is expected to influence asset pricing, similar to the 2017 tax reform, which saw rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar during its legislative phase[51] - The current macroeconomic environment does not support overly optimistic forecasts regarding the economic impact of fiscal reforms due to high interest rates and ongoing policy uncertainties[49]

Group 1 - The market is reacting to speculation about the content of a recent phone call, indicating a heightened sense of anticipation among traders [1][2][3] - Initial market reactions show a slight increase in gold and U.S. Treasury yields, while U.S. stocks and the dollar index declined, suggesting that the call may not have yielded favorable outcomes [4] - The volatility in asset prices may be based on speculation rather than concrete information, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations [5][6] Group 2 - The importance of resource accumulation, particularly rare earth elements, is emphasized as a strategic asset in negotiations [8][10] - The article suggests that the geopolitical landscape is shifting back to a focus on territorial resources, challenging the notion that nations no longer seek land [12] - The pursuit of land and resources is framed as a critical factor in international relations, with implications for future negotiations and power dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The return of Trump to the political scene has introduced unprecedented uncertainty in the markets, affecting macro traders and their strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's fluctuating policies on trade tariffs and taxes have disrupted established trading strategies, leading to significant market volatility [1]. - The HFRX Macro/CTA Index has dropped 4.3% year-to-date, marking the worst start since records began in 2004, highlighting the struggles of macro traders [3]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 2% this week, with a cumulative increase of 6% in May, indicating a divergence in market performance [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Traditional defensive strategies, such as investing in value stocks and fixed-income tools, have failed to protect against market downturns, with defensive stocks lagging behind cyclical stocks by 10 percentage points [4]. - Popular volatility-linked ETFs have also seen declines of at least 25%, resulting in significant losses for investors who sought protection through these instruments [4]. - The best strategy in the current environment appears to be a passive approach, as retail investors have benefitted from the chaos, with $10 billion flowing into popular ETFs like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) since May [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Analysts emphasize that the natural resilience of the economy has been underestimated, suggesting that a more cautious and observant approach may yield better results than aggressive trading [6].