Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese economy** and its **export-import dynamics** in the context of global trade, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China tariffs and the overall economic performance in 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: In June 2025, China's exports showed a short-term strength with a year-on-year growth of **5.8%**, and a quarterly growth of **6.2%**. This was attributed to the easing of U.S.-China tariffs, although a decline in growth is expected post-August 2025 [1][3][6]. 2. **Import Dynamics**: Imports turned positive in June with a year-on-year growth of **1.1%**, driven by rising oil prices. The trade surplus expanded to **$114.77 billion**, marking the second-highest level of the year [1][4]. 3. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Consumer Goods**: Rapid recovery in consumer goods exports due to tariff easing. - **Semiconductors**: Steady improvement in the semiconductor and electronics sectors. - **Automotive Sector**: A cooling trend in automotive and parts exports, contributing only **0.7 percentage points** to overall export growth, influenced by U.S. tariffs and EU policies [1][7]. 4. **Economic Growth Contributions**: In the first half of 2025, net exports contributed **1.6 percentage points** to GDP growth, with a notable contribution of **1.2 percentage points** in Q2 [1][8]. 5. **Challenges Ahead**: The second half of 2025 is expected to face significant challenges due to uncertainties in the global tariff environment, particularly with the U.S. initiating new tariffs and the potential end of the tariff easing period [1][9][16]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a decline of **0.1%** in June, marking the first negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment dropping by **12.9%** [3][12][13]. 7. **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth slowed to **4.8%** in June, with durable goods related to real estate maintaining high growth rates, particularly in automobiles and home appliances [3][11]. 8. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook**: Anticipated monetary easing and fiscal measures to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy, especially if export declines accelerate post-August [10][17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Environment**: The uncertainty surrounding global tariffs, especially from the U.S., poses a risk to China's export outlook, particularly in the automotive sector [6][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to struggle, with significant declines in sales and prices, indicating a need for more robust policy support [14][22]. 3. **Labor Market and Inflation**: The U.S. labor market shows signs of improvement, which may influence inflation expectations and subsequently affect China's monetary policy decisions [26][28]. 4. **Urbanization Strategy**: The central urbanization strategy emphasizes a shift from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvements rather than quantity [23][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its trade dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The current macroeconomic situation shows overall stability in total volume, structural differentiation, stable demand, and slowing investment [3]. Group 1: Economic Growth - In Q2, GDP growth reached 5.2%, down from 5.4% previously; for the first half of the year, a GDP growth of 4.7% in the second half is sufficient to meet the annual target of 5% [6]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - In June, fixed asset investment and consumption both saw a year-on-year decline; however, exports and industrial added value performed strongly, indicating a relatively high level of activity in the "export-driven" sector [3]. - Cumulative fixed asset investment from January to June grew by 2.8%, below the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7% [6]. - Retail sales in June increased by 4.8%, lower than the expected 5.6% and the previous 6.4% [6]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side remains stable overall, but the significant decline in fixed asset investment growth is attributed to high temperatures, further decline in PPI, and a complex external environment leading to more cautious investment decisions by market participants [3]. - The economic supply-demand relationship has improved, consistent with the stable rise in core CPI from May to June [3].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][2] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected growth of 5.5% [1][2] - The service sector's added value grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% [2][3] Trade and Exports - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export amounted to 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Exports reached 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [5] - In June, the total import and export scale hit 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, also up by 7.2% [6] Financial Data - M1 growth in June rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, the highest for the same period in nearly five years [8][10] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding market expectations [1][8] - The demand for credit from residents and enterprises showed signs of recovery, with new RMB loans in June reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]

统计局：6月，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%，环比增加0.5%。分经济类型看，6月份，国有控股企业增加值同比增5.7%；股份制企业7.1%，外商及港澳台投资企业5.5%；私营企业6.2%。（前值分别为3.8%、6.3%、3.9%及5.9%）6月生产钢材12784万吨，同比增加1.8%，前值3.4%；水泥15547吨，下降5.3%，前值降8.1%；十种有色金属695万吨，增长4.4%，前值增2.9%；乙烯285吨，增长5.8%，前值增14.4%；汽车280.9万辆，增长8.8%，其中新能源汽车123.4万辆，增长18.8%；发电量7963亿千瓦时，增长1.7%；原油加工量6224万吨，增长8.5%，前值下降1.8%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities widened, while the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. New housing prices in first - and second - tier cities turned down month - on - month [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 1.7%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 3.5% and 4.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities was 2.7%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 6.1% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing [6]. - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [6]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20,317.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19,194.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment was 3,623.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from 2022 Q4 to 2025 Q1 were 3%, 4.7%, 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4% respectively [9]. - The contributions of different industries to GDP growth and their year - on - year growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025 are presented in the figures [9][15]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of the added value of major industries in May 2025 are as follows: coal mining and washing increased by 5.5%, oil and gas extraction increased by 5.3%, and the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% [6]. Major Output of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel from May 2024 to May 2025 is presented in the figure [26]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption in major industries from December 2023 to April 2025 are presented in the figure [34]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to April 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 2,117.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [37]. - The profits of different industries showed different trends. For example, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 24.5%, while the profit of the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9% [37]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of April 2025, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the inventory growth rate decreased slightly [48]. Price Index CPI - In May 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, and non - food prices remained flat [53]. PPI - In May 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month [60].

西安：1-5月全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长13.0% 智通财经6月21日电，据西安发布消息，1-5月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长13.0%；全市固定资 产投资(不含农户)同比增长0.6%；全市限额以上企业(单位)消费品零售额1145.37亿元，同比增长2.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan province's industrial value added for the first five months of 2023 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [1] Economic Indicators - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 1,173.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industry categories, 35 reported an increase in value added during the first five months [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase in value added, growing by 22.2% year-on-year [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry experienced a growth of 18.8% year-on-year [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.9% year-on-year [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry also increased by 14.9% year-on-year [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry reported a growth of 10.3% year-on-year [1]