Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]

Group 1: Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Sichuan Province increased by 6.8% year-on-year from January to November [1] - Among 41 major industries, 33 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (18.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (13.7%), and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (12.7%) [1] - The natural gas production in Sichuan rose by 11.5%, while the output of lithium-ion batteries surged by 45.9% and industrial robots increased by 42.1% [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the primary industry grew by 10.8%, while the secondary industry saw a 7.7% increase, with industrial investment specifically rising by 8.0% [1] Group 3: Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 26,395.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales in urban areas amounted to 21,378.2 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, while rural retail sales increased by 6.0% to 5,017.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The catering revenue was 3,614.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and retail sales through the internet by large enterprises grew by 21.2% [2]

本文编选自"国家统计局"，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 智通财经APP获悉，国家统计局12月15日公布的数据显示，11月份，我国粗钢产量6987万吨，同比下降 10.9%；生铁产量6234万吨，同比下降8.7%；钢材产量11591万吨，同比下降2.6%。1-11月份，我国粗 钢产量89167万吨，同比下降4.0%；生铁产量77405万吨，同比下降2.3%；钢材产量133277万吨，同比 增长4.0%。 11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%(增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率)。从环比 看，11月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.44%。1—11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.0%。 ...

Economic Indicators - China's November industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% [1] - China's November total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% [1] - China's November surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, in line with the expected 5.1% [1] - China's fixed asset investment in urban areas from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, below the expected -2.3% [1]

Economic Overview - China's economy is experiencing fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, but there is optimism for stabilization in November with coordinated policies [1][2] - Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in achieving economic and social development goals, highlighting industrial upgrades and large-scale market demand as key growth drivers [1] Industrial Production - The forecast for November's industrial value-added growth is 5.0%, slightly up from 4.9% in October, indicating a potential recovery in industrial production [3][4] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 in November, reflecting a slight increase in market confidence, although it remains below the growth threshold [3][4] Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for retail sales in November is 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in October, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [5][6] - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% increase in online sales compared to last year, indicating a positive impact on consumer spending [6] Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth in November is -2.1%, a decline from -1.7% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8][9] - New policy financial tools have been introduced to support investments in key sectors, including digital economy and infrastructure, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to over 2,300 projects [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize investment, including the expansion of infrastructure REITs, which aim to attract private investment into public projects [10] - Recent meetings have emphasized the importance of strategic planning and collaboration across departments to enhance investment in critical areas [10]

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

数据来源：国家统计局 2018-2025年Q3工业增加值指数当季值统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国工业云行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年第三季度工业增加值当季值为10.35万亿元，同比增长1.1%；2025 年第三季度工业增加值指数当季值为105.8，2025年第三季度工业增加值指数累计值为106.1。 2018-2025年工业增加值Q3当季值与年度累计值统计图 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series on November 18, 2025. Iron ore and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation, with ferrosilicon's bias due to continuous production cuts in the main production areas and silicomanganese's due to sector sentiment disturbances; coke and coking coal are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures price was 788.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (2.07%). Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices fell. Some basis and spread values changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, 0.17% month - on - month, and 6.1% from January to October [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's HC2601 futures price was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (1.57%). Spot prices in various regions rose. Some basis and spread values changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, hot - rolled coils by 4.5 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, hot - rolled coils increased by 0.07 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, hot - rolled coils by 0.71 tons [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (strong - biased) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese rose. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,600 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ningxia Zhongwei Yuexin overhauled a 25,500kva ferrosilicon furnace, reducing daily output by about 70 tons. As of November 14th, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 12.05 tons. There were price changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas fluctuated. Some companies finalized ferrosilicon procurement prices [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's JM2601 coking coal futures price was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (1.5%); J2601 coke futures price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 40.5 yuan (2.4%). Spot prices remained mostly unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts remained mostly unchanged. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23].

Group 1: Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Sichuan Province increased by 5.8% year-on-year from January to October this year [1] - Among 41 major industries, 31 experienced year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in the automotive manufacturing industry (17.3%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (13.7%), and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (11.8%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (12.1% growth), smart TVs (69.2% growth), lithium-ion batteries (55.9% growth), and industrial robots (46.8% growth) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the primary industry grew by 10.8%, while the secondary industry saw a 6.2% increase, with industrial investment specifically rising by 6.3% [1] Group 3: Consumer Market Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan Province reached 239.9 billion yuan, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase [2] - Within retail sales, catering revenue was 32.8 billion yuan (3.7% growth), and commodity retail was 207.2 billion yuan (6.4% growth) [2] - Online retail sales from above-designated size enterprises reached 19.1 billion yuan, growing by 25.6% [2]

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]