金融工程丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 多因子选股（二十一）：日历效应下的因子投资 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受市场交易影响，不同类别的因子在年内表现有所不同，寻找因子的日历效应规律，可以对因 子选股的收益进行增强，并降低尾部风险。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 郑起 覃川桃 SAC：S0490520060001 SAC：S0490513030001 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 29 %% %% %% %% 2 [Table_Title2] 多因子选股（二十一）：日历效应下的因子投资 [Table_Summary2] 因子的日历效应 本文对 12 个大类因子，共统计了季度、年末年初、春节、两会、国庆五种日历效应： 日历效应指数增强 根据因子的日历效应，在大类因子合成权重上进行调整，构建月度调仓频率的增强策略： 短期展望 进入十二月后，年末年初效应规律为以低波、拥挤度、质量、价值为代表的低风险偏好因子更 为有效，考虑到当前高 Beta 的成长风格仍有一定概率 ...

Market Overview - The report identifies a seasonal pattern in the A-share market, highlighting a "spring excitement" at the beginning of the year, cautious trading in mid-year, and a warm winter finish at year-end [1][12] - In terms of quarterly performance, Q4 shows a significantly higher win rate and return compared to other quarters, with a win rate of 66.7% and a median return of 2.9% [1][13] - February is noted as the strongest month for market performance, leading the annual trend, while October and November also show favorable results [1][15] Broad-based Indices - The report emphasizes that earnings announcements are crucial for the performance of broad-based indices, with small-cap stocks generally outperforming in Q1, Q2, and Q4, while Q3 shows more balanced performance [2][18] - During earnings announcement periods, large-cap stocks tend to dominate, while small-cap stocks perform better in the vacuum periods following these announcements [2][19] Style Indices - The report indicates that the dividend style tends to perform better in November and December, while small-cap styles excel in February and March [3][21] - In terms of quarterly performance, small-cap styles dominate in Q1, while large-cap styles are stronger in Q4, with consumer styles leading in Q2 and Q3 [3][21] Industry Analysis - The report outlines that consumer and TMT sectors lead at the beginning of the year, while cyclical and consumer sub-sectors break through mid-year, and cyclical sectors finish strong at year-end [4][22] - Monthly performance shows that January maintains a cyclical trend, February sees competition among consumer, TMT, and cyclical sectors, while October sees strong performance from the financial sector and electronics influenced by tech giants [4][22]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's high dividend sector typically experiences a seasonal "bull market" from December to mid-January, driven by historical patterns known as the "calendar effect" [1] Historical Data Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Total Return Index shows a high absolute return probability of 90.9% from December to mid-January, with a median increase of 3.4% and an average increase of 4.6% since 2014 [2] - The probability of achieving excess returns compared to the A-share market (CSI 300) is 81.8%, with an average outperformance of approximately 2.1 percentage points [3] - The same probability of 81.8% applies when comparing to the A-share dividend index (CSI Dividend), with an average excess return of about 3.2 percentage points [4] - When compared to the Hong Kong market benchmark (Hang Seng Index), the probability of excess returns is also 81.8%, with an average excess return of approximately 1.6 percentage points [5] Exceptions and Insights - The only year with absolute return losses was from December 2015 to mid-January 2016, attributed to the A-share "leverage bull" collapse and liquidity crisis affecting the Hong Kong market. However, high dividend assets still outperformed the A-share market and the Hang Seng Index during this period [6] - Years where excess returns lagged behind the A-share market occurred mainly during the "fast bull" phases of 2014-2015 and 2020-2021, when growth stocks surged [6] - Excess returns lagging behind the Hang Seng Index were primarily due to significant movements in major stocks like Tencent, rather than a widespread trend [6] Investment Strategy - Investing in high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market at year-end is historically a high-probability strategy with both absolute and relative return potential, influenced by institutional portfolio adjustments and the dividend distribution system [7] - Among the high dividend stocks, those from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may offer lower valuations and more stable dividend guarantees, as SOEs have implemented market value management and accountability systems [8] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.63, lower than the 0.66 for the broader high dividend index, providing a thicker "safety cushion" [8] - As of December 9, the one-year dividend yield for this index is 6.71%, surpassing the 4.84% yield of 10-year government bonds, with the largest investment vehicle tracking this index being the Hong Kong SOE Dividend ETF [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest in dividend assets as they outperform growth sectors amid market volatility, with the Hong Kong High Dividend Index showing a notable performance compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] - As of December 8, the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by 26.73% over the past year, while the Hong Kong High Dividend Index (total return) has increased by 28.08%, indicating a slight outperformance [1] - The volatility of the Hong Kong High Dividend Index is significantly lower at 13.58%, compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index's volatility of 28.21% [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Securities, the Hong Kong dividend assets are entering a strong "calendar effect" window from December to mid-January, with a historical increase probability of 90.9% during this period since 2014, and a median increase of 3.4% [1] - The excess return probability of the Hong Kong High Dividend Index compared to the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index also exceeds 80% [1] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central Enterprise Dividend Index has been one of the best performers this year, with a year-to-date increase of 28.07%, closely following the Hong Kong High Dividend Index [3] - This index selects high-dividend companies within the Stock Connect range, primarily those with state-owned enterprises as the largest shareholders, while applying multiple quality filters such as trading volume and volatility [3] - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index has a year-to-date volatility of only 7.55%, significantly lower than other indices, which generally exceed 11% [3]

Overview - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced significant growth in 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 17.87%, driven primarily by price parity and valuation support [2][12] - The current environment presents challenges for convertible bonds, with overall cost-effectiveness declining and valuation at historical highs, leading to increased investment difficulty [2][12] Section 1: 2025 Convertible Bond Review - The convertible bond market saw a strong performance in early 2025 due to ample liquidity and moderate economic recovery, with price parity being the main driver [12] - The market faced a pullback in March-April due to negative CPI and external disturbances, but recovered from May to September as fundamental expectations improved [12] - The overall market for convertible bonds is now in a "deep water zone," with a significant decline in supply and an increase in the median price to 132 yuan, indicating a high premium environment [2][12][27] Section 2: 2026 Stock Market Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the stock market, with corporate earnings expected to recover and long-term capital inflows continuing to support the equity market [41][45] - The M1 money supply has shown a significant turning point since September 2024, indicating improved liquidity conditions that are expected to benefit the stock market [46][52] Section 3: 2026 Convertible Bond Outlook and Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic adjustment of positions in convertible bonds based on market cycles, emphasizing a focus on index-based allocations [2][56] - The strategy indicates that the best accumulation window for convertible bonds is during the latter half of a market downturn and the early half of an uptrend [2][56] - The report highlights the importance of sector rotation, suggesting that constructing an equal-weighted index can effectively capture rotation opportunities [2][67]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that high dividend assets in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are expected to experience the strongest calendar effect from December to mid-January, with a high probability of price increases and excess returns during this period [1] - Since 2014, the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend total return index has shown a 90.9% probability of absolute returns, with median and average increases of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively [1] - Compared to the CSI 300 total return index, the excess return probability is 81.8%, with median and average excess returns of 5.6% and 2.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - The performance of large-cap stocks is expected to outperform small-cap stocks in December, with a temporary advantage for dividend styles, particularly in the financial sector [1] - As the year-end assessment period approaches, institutional investors such as insurance funds are rebalancing their assets, which is expected to boost the performance of stable sectors like dividends and finance [1] - The Hong Kong dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index (930914), which selects 30 high dividend yield securities with good liquidity and consistent dividends from those eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]

Core Viewpoint - As the year-end approaches, the market is becoming cautious, leading to a resurgence in high-dividend assets, with funds shifting towards these investments [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On December 4, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) saw a net inflow of 37.94 million yuan, while the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) attracted 30.04 million yuan, marking its 11th consecutive day of inflows, totaling nearly 100 million yuan [1] - Institutional investors are typically shifting towards defensive, stable dividend assets to lock in annual returns, indicating a growing preference for these investments [1] - Historical data shows that the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has an 80% probability of closing positive in November and a 50% probability in December since 2015, demonstrating a seasonal "calendar effect" [1][2] Group 2: Long-term Investment Value - Despite underperforming mainstream indices over the past year, dividend assets have shown strong resilience in the long term, outperforming the 300 and 50 indices over three and ten years [4] - The annualized return of dividend assets over the past five years has been 10%, primarily driven by shareholder returns, with price contributions at only 4% [5] Group 3: Dividend Yield and Economic Environment - The current low interest rate environment in China has led to a decline in long-term rates, with the latest 10-year government bond yield at 1.87%, while the CSI Dividend Index has a yield of 4.87% and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index at 6.61% [7][8] - The attractiveness of dividend indices, with yields between 4% and 7%, is heightened by the decreasing risk-free return from government bonds [8] Group 4: Index Adjustments and Composition - Dividend indices typically undergo semi-annual or annual rebalancing to maintain their vitality, with the recent adjustments including the addition of strong sectors like metals and banking while removing weaker sectors like steel and real estate [9][10] - The average dividend yield of newly included stocks is expected to be 4.15%, compared to 3.89% for those being removed, indicating an enhancement in investment value [10] Group 5: Dividend Growth Trends - The trend of regular dividends has become established in A-shares since the implementation of the "New National Nine" policies, with the CSI Dividend Index constituents projected to distribute over 92 billion yuan in dividends in 2024, marking a historical high [12][13] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index has also shown a consistent increase in total dividends, exceeding 100 billion yuan for three consecutive years [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.55% [1] - Sectors such as automotive disassembly, fiberglass, and HBM saw significant gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, forestry, and iron ore experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities suggests that the market may exhibit a balanced characteristic with a focus on mid-cap blue chips, while small-cap growth stocks may show weakness [1] - The firm emphasizes selecting sectors with improving marginal prosperity, particularly those benefiting from global supply reshaping, policy stimulus, and structural upgrades in consumption [1] - Huachuang Securities notes a recovery in industry rotation intensity, with the technology sector expanding towards dividend and "anti-involution" assets [2] - The firm highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has improved from a low of -3.6% to -2.1% in October, indicating a potential benefit for cyclical assets with high weight in dividend assets [2]

最近公募基金圈子里发生了一件有趣的事，让我这个量化交易老手都忍不住要说道说道。2025年接近尾声，本该是基金经理们忙着 冲规模的时节，今年却玩起了新花样——一边是分红潮汹涌澎湃，一边是绩优基金纷纷限购。这葫芦里到底卖的什么药？ 作为一名量化交易者，我向来对市场异动特别敏感。Wind数据显示，截至12月4日，2025年以来3364只基金累计分红约2155.17亿 元。其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF以83.94亿元居首。与此同时，中欧旗下4只产品将单日申购限额降至1万元。这种看似矛盾的操作背 后，隐藏着机构资金的真实意图。 一、分红与限购：机构的两副面孔 记得我刚入行时，一位老前辈说过："市场就像个婊子养的赌场，但量化数据不会骗人。"这话虽然粗俗，但道理不假。现在的公募 基金就像个精明的老鸨，一边用分红吸引客户，一边又用限购把大客户拒之门外。 易方达科翔混合11月以来两次分红，合计1.05亿元。华夏基金说分红是盈利兑现，这话没错。但作为一个量化交易者，我更关心的 是：为什么现在分？为什么是这个金额？这些问题的答案都藏在数据里。 我翻看了近十年的基金分红数据，发现一个有趣的规律：大规模分红往往出现在市场转折点前。这不 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the calendar effect observed in December over the past decade, indicating a significant opportunity for asset allocation this month [1] - In November, global liquidity disturbances impacted major risk assets, with concerns over USD liquidity and AI narratives affecting global tech growth stocks [1] - The A-share market followed the trend of major global markets, experiencing a monthly decline, with two key meetings in December potentially influencing the year-end market dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, liquidity issues have been a significant reason for recent adjustments, with the market experiencing earlier and deeper declines compared to A-shares [3] - Certain sectors in the Hong Kong market, such as internet and innovative pharmaceuticals, may have reached attractive valuation levels, as indicated by reduced trading congestion and significant pullbacks [3] - The market is also awaiting the implementation of domestic policies in December, trends in AI applications, and the resolution of uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - Historically, institutional allocation intentions are strong at the year-end, with a significant opening period for fixed-term bond funds in December, exceeding 100 billion [5] - The focus is on structural opportunities in credit bonds, while monitoring institutional allocation behaviors and the impact of open-ended bond funds [5] - The market for long-term bonds has limited trading opportunities, with a primary focus on earning coupon interest, as insurance institutions show strong allocation intentions at year-end [6] Group 4 - The balance of bank wealth management products typically increases at the end of the quarter, enhancing allocation power [6] - The data indicates that credit spreads may remain low and fluctuate, with potential for further compression if driven by market conditions [6]