日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 报告类型 股指日评 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，1 月 6 日美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五就关税问题作出裁 决。国内方面，12 月 PMI 回升至荣枯线以上，释放经济改善信号，同时，2026 年国补政策下达，财政端靠前发力，整体市场情绪维持乐观。资金面来看，节后 两市总成交明显放量，两融资金也持续刷新新高，达到 2.58 万亿的水平。总体而 言，随着国内经济改善预期强化，A 股慢牛格局逐步稳固，保持长线多头思维不 变，目前来看，春躁行情有望提前演绎，上证 4000 点支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is showing strong momentum in January 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 14 consecutive days of gains, indicating a favorable environment for institutional investors to position themselves for the upcoming market trends [2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - January is typically a time for institutional investors to prepare for the "spring surge" and the overall market trend for the year, with expectations of a structural market performance amid potential style differentiation as the Chinese New Year approaches [2]. - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by a rebound in corporate earnings forecasts, particularly due to low comparative bases from the previous year, and an influx of capital into the A-share market as the year begins [3]. - Key investment themes identified include high-growth sectors such as AI hardware, renewable energy, and cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, as well as financial sectors with stable earnings [2][3]. Group 2: Sector and Stock Recommendations - The focus on cyclical industries, particularly non-ferrous metals and financial sectors, has increased, with significant recommendations from various brokerages. For instance, the non-ferrous metals sector saw an increase of 15 stocks in the January recommendations, making it the second most recommended sector [7][20]. - Specific stocks highlighted include Zijin Mining, which is favored by 11 brokerages and has shown a substantial increase in institutional holdings, indicating strong market confidence [20][21]. - The electronic sector remains dominant with 47 stocks recommended, maintaining its position as the most favored sector for 23 consecutive months [6][9]. Group 3: Notable Stocks - Among the stocks recommended by multiple brokerages, Zhongji Xuchuang stands out with 12 brokerages supporting it, reflecting its strong market performance and significant institutional backing [11][12]. - Other notable stocks include Zijin Mining and Sanhua Intelligent Controls, both of which have shown impressive growth rates and are heavily favored by institutional investors [20][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector has also gained traction, with 9 stocks included in the January recommendations, reflecting a growing interest in this area [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points. The Spring Rally may start earlier, led by institutional funds. The ChiNext and STAR Market, along with the CSI 500 index, are expected to perform well before the Two Sessions [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: After the holiday, the underlying market continued the pre - holiday optimism. Option trading volume was stable, and the implied volatility declined. A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The short - end is supported, while the ultra - long - end may face uncertainties [3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the equity market closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 4000 points. The STAR Market led the gains, and the trading volume reached 2.57 trillion yuan. The CSI 500 index broke through its previous high [1][7]. - **Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed. The total open interest of each contract increased [7]. - **Outlook**: The Spring Rally may start earlier, and growth - style stocks are expected to lead. It is recommended to hold IC contracts [7]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Market Performance**: The underlying market rose across the board, and the total option trading volume reached 9799 million yuan, up 41.46% from the previous day. The trading ratio of call and put options was stable, and the implied volatility declined [2][7]. - **Strategy**: A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. Most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, and the spot bond yields showed a differentiated trend [3][7][8]. - **Data**: The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts decreased. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of each contract changed [7][8]. - **Policy Impact**: The central bank's net injection of 253.2 billion yuan was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The "Two New" policy was issued to support economic growth [3][8]. - **Outlook**: The central bank's attitude is favorable for the short - end, while the ultra - long - end may be affected by interest - rate cut and supply expectations. Trend strategy: range - bound; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: the curve may remain steep [7][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include China's December SPGI Services PMI (released, reaching 52), China's December foreign exchange reserves, US December ADP employment change, Eurozone November unemployment rate, Eurozone December economic sentiment index, China's December CPI and PPI annual rates, US December non - farm payrolls change, and US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Pension**: The long - term assessment of the over 700 billion yuan annuity fund is being promoted, which will encourage long - term investment and attract more medium - and long - term funds into the market [11]. - **Geopolitical**: In the US military action against Venezuela, 32 Cuban citizens died. The Cuban President expressed condolences to the families of the victims [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and factors in 2026 are favorable for gold. Gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [1][38]. - The global stock markets generally rose in the first week after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19. The so - called "spring rally" may have started early, and the window for portfolio adjustment and layout in the fourth quarter is narrowing. Attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities, and any short - term correction constitutes a significant right - hand layout opportunity [1][39]. - The most elastic convertible bond targets are the equity - oriented ones in the core themes of the annual strategy, such as Dinglong and Yongxi Convertible Bonds. The relatively elastic targets are in three undervalued directions: AI edge (consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, embodied robots), upstream key resource - type materials, and power transmission and distribution equipment. [1][40]. - The report attaches more importance to demand than supply. It recommends sectors with obvious growth expectations on the demand side, and sectors with marginal improvement on the supply side may have difficulty forming sustainable medium - term allocation opportunities without significant improvement on the demand side [1][40]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, and others [1][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the equity market overall rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% to 3,963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53% to 13,603.89 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% to 3,243.88 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4,657.24 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 207.924 billion yuan to 1948.902 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.94% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed higher, with 14 industries rising more than 2%. Non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials led the gains, rising 6.43%, 6.00%, 5.37%, 4.96%, and 4.56% respectively [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise - From December 22 to December 26, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64% to 493.25 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed higher, with 7 industries rising more than 2%. National defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, computer, and electronics led the gains, rising 7.55%, 4.64%, 4.46%, 3.48%, and 3.27% respectively [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 80.058 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.446 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 25.85%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, etc. About 76.79% of individual convertible bonds rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.60%, a decrease of 0.95 pct from the previous week. There were also changes in the conversion premium rate by price, parity, and industry [22][28]. - The conversion parity of 20 industries increased, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, textile and apparel, automotive, steel, and national defense and military industry led the gains [31]. 1.3 Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From December 22 to December 26, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly, and the trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better overall. However, the trading sentiment of the convertible bond market was better on some trading days [33]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend and play an important role in asset portfolios [1][38]. - The equity market's "spring rally" may have started early, and attention should be paid to balancing the risk of missing out on opportunities [1][39]. - The convertible bond strategy recommends certain equity - oriented and undervalued - sector targets, and provides the top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week [1][40].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with fluctuations in major indices, indicating a potential early start to the spring market driven by policy and technological catalysts [1][16]. Market Performance - The three major indices exhibited varied results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.50 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points [2][16]. - Over 2800 stocks declined, indicating a broader market weakness despite some sectors showing strength [2][16]. Sector Highlights Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector saw a rebound, with stocks like Vanke A and others hitting the daily limit [6][19]. - Data from the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute revealed that the cumulative transaction of second-hand homes in four first-tier cities reached 519,000 units by November, surpassing the same period in 2024 [6][19]. Hainan Sector - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and related stocks performed strongly, with Shennong Agriculture hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Xinhong Holdings and Luoniushan also performing well [4][18]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed localized activity, particularly in retail, with stocks like Yonghui Supermarket and Central Plaza reaching their daily limits [2][16]. Education Sector - The education sector experienced a late surge, with stocks like Zhonggong Education hitting the daily limit [2][16]. Downward Trends - The consumer electronics sector faced adjustments, with Furong Technology leading the decline [2][16]. - The banking sector showed weakness, with China Merchants Bank experiencing notable declines [2][16]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan believes multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A/H shares, anticipating a more proactive economic policy as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins [11][22]. - Huachuang Securities noted a rebound in export growth in November, supported by resilient demand and a significant recovery in new export orders across manufacturing sectors [11][22].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.72% to 3881.51 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.56% to 13202.49 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.23% to 3170.26 points, as of midday trading [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, with over 3800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The retail sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Dongbai Group hitting a four-day limit up, and others such as Yonghui Supermarket and Huijia Times also reaching the daily limit [2] - The Hainan sector saw significant gains, with Hainan Ruize and Luoniushan hitting the daily limit, driven by the upcoming full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 [3] - The precious metals sector rose, with Xiaocheng Technology increasing over 10%, following a significant rise in silver prices, which have increased nearly 110% this year [4] Institutional Insights - Zhongyin Securities suggests that the market is currently supported by funds and policies, indicating a potential early start to the "spring excitement" market in 2024, driven by easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Xinda Securities believes December may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, although the timing for the start of this rally may not be early due to current high valuations in the A-share market [6] - Dongfang Securities notes that the market remains in a phase of adjustment, with structural trends prevailing, but maintains a long-term positive outlook despite short-term challenges [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.21% and the ChiNext Index down 0.26%. The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with Hunan Silver rising over 4%, while sectors like consumer electronics and large financials experienced the largest declines [1] - Zhongyin Securities anticipates that the "spring excitement" preheating market may begin earlier, supported by funds and policies, with the A-share market expected to continue its bull market next year due to valuation support and stabilizing profits [1] - The easing of geopolitical risks and the renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to contribute to the spring market excitement, with the gradual realization of Sino-US policy expectations being a key factor for the market's upward movement [1] Group 2 - Xinda Securities suggests that December 2025 may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, with expectations of a cross-year market likely in 2026 [2] - The macroeconomic outlook is perceived as weak, providing space for more substantial growth-stabilizing policies, although the timing for the cross-year market may not be early due to current high A-share valuations [2] - The low interest rate environment continues to drive residents to allocate more funds to the stock market, but short-term factors affecting incremental capital include the limited spread of the "profit-making effect" and market risk aversion due to year-end expectations [2] Group 3 - Dongfang Securities believes the market will primarily experience a period of consolidation, but the long-term positive outlook remains unchanged due to supportive consumption policies and new consumption scenarios driving positive changes in the consumer market [3] - Many listed companies reported quarter-on-quarter net profit growth in Q3, indicating emerging investment opportunities, particularly in leading commercial stocks towards the end of the year [3] - Overall, the market is still in an adjustment phase with structural trends dominating, and while there are market hotspots, short-term upward momentum for stock indices is insufficient, leading to a focus on consolidation [3]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index opened lower but rebounded, with AI computing hardware concepts experiencing a resurgence, particularly in sectors like CPO and PCB, which saw significant gains [1] - The Chuangye 50 ETF (159682) showed strong performance, rising by 1.42% and aiming for a fourth consecutive increase, with notable gains from major stocks such as Shenghong Technology (over 9%) and Zhongji Xuchuang (over 6%) reaching a historical high [1] - Over the previous 10 trading days (from November 25 to December 8), the Chuangye 50 ETF (159682) had accumulated a rebound of over 10% [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyin Securities, policy catalysts have initiated a "spring surge" market, with technology stocks, particularly AI computing hardware and optical modules, leading the market [2] - The upgrade of Google's large model and the expected increase in TPU production have further stimulated market expectations, indicating a potential shortage of optical communication chips and a price increase logic by 2026 [2] - The "spring surge" market is characterized by a focus on technology elasticity, with AI computing hardware taking the lead [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股市仍需等待，债市⻓端情绪低迷 股指期货：双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待 股指期权：期权备兑增厚 国债期货：国债⻓端情绪持续低迷 股指期货方面，双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待。周一沪指 高开回升，重回3900点上方，TMT、券商领涨。日内乐观情绪受到两重因 素提振：一是上周五金监总局下调保险公司投资沪深300、科创板等标的 的风险因子，释放大盘股中期潜在增量资金；二是午后发布12月政治局会 议公告，定调积极有为，紧抓质效落实，结构性方向关注内需和科技创 新，政策偏暖支持、稳定发力，强化股市中期稳健上行趋势。同时也需注 意，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待，年末资金风险尚未完全释放，一是大规 模限售解禁集中，二是股市整体缩量，三是下旬日本央行即将加息，市场 担忧日元套息交易平仓影响权益产品流动性。从历年春躁经验来看，元旦 之后机会的持续性更强，操作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股 息。 股指期权方面，期权备兑增厚。昨日权益市场放量上涨，沪指单日收 涨0.54%，科创50指数涨幅1.86%。期权方面，由于上周五期权市场流动性 已于周内放量提升，期权交投热情 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the initiation of the "Spring Surge" market trend, emphasizing that technology, particularly AI computing hardware, is leading the charge [2][4] - The report indicates that regulatory changes are allowing for a moderate opening of capital space and leverage limits in the securities industry, which is expected to catalyze the "Spring Surge" [4] - The demand for AI computing hardware, especially optical modules, is projected to drive market growth, with significant price increases anticipated for optical chips by 2026 due to supply shortages [5][9] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on differentiated supervision, aiming to support high-quality institutions by easing certain restrictions, which is expected to enhance capital efficiency [4] - Recent adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies' holdings in specific indices are expected to encourage new capital inflows into the market [4] Market Performance - On December 8, 2025, the communication and electronics sectors led the market with gains of 4.67% and 2.51%, respectively, while the optical module index surged by 9.28% [4] - The report notes that the performance of growth-oriented sectors is typically favored during the "Spring Surge" [4] AI Hardware and Optical Modules - Google's recent upgrade of its AI model, Gemini 3, is expected to boost market expectations, particularly for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are anticipated to see increased production by 2026-2027 [5][10] - The optical communication chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2030, with total sales expected to rise from approximately $3.5 billion in 2024 to over $11 billion by 2030 [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the TPU supply chain, particularly companies involved in optical modules, printed circuit boards (PCBs), optical circuit switches (OCS), and fiber optic suppliers, as these sectors are expected to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand [10] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, with some companies experiencing gains of over 300% year-to-date [11]