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瓶片:高位波动,保持防范上行风险20260317:短纤:高位波动,保持防范上行风险20260317
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 01:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in high - level fluctuations, and it is necessary to guard against upward risks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Futures prices: Short - fiber 2604 was 8382 yuan, down 74 yuan from the previous day; short - fiber 2605 was 8340 yuan, down 48 yuan; short - fiber 2606 was 8276 yuan, up 286 yuan [1] - Spread: PF04 - 05 was 42, down 26; PF05 - 06 was 64, down 334; PF main basis was 18, down 26 [1] - Position and trading volume: The main position of short - fiber was 157,572, down 73,425; the main trading volume was 40,925, down 7,846 [1] - Spot price and sales rate: The spot price in East China was 8,400 yuan, down 100 yuan; the sales rate was 54%, unchanged [1] Bottle - chip - Futures prices: Bottle - chip 2604 was 8342 yuan, up 28 yuan from the previous day; bottle - chip 2605 was 8307 yuan, up 65 yuan; bottle - chip 2606 was 8168 yuan, up 88 yuan [1] - Spread: PR04 - 05 was 36, down 36; PR05 - 06 was 138, down 24; PR main basis was 482, down 138 [1] - Position and trading volume: The main position of bottle - chip was 44,893, up 758; the main trading volume was 195,736, up 98,369 [1] - Spot price: The spot price in East China was 8650 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in South China was 9000 yuan, unchanged [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Futures prices rose first and then fell. Factory quotes remained stable, with semi - bright 1.4D mainstream quotes at 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. As futures prices rose, discounts from traders and futures - cash traders narrowed, with the mainstream price range at 8350 - 8600 yuan. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines, and the average sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories was 47% [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream raw material prices continued to rise. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly raised by 100 - 500 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was light, with a large gap between high and low transaction prices. Most 3 - 5 month orders were traded at 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton ex - factory, slightly lower at 8900 - 8950 yuan/ton ex - factory, and locally slightly higher at 9450 - 9550 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip was 1, indicating the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20260316
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. Each commodity has its specific price trend and influencing factors, such as cost changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - industry news [2][4][7][11][14][15][18][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Trend**: Near - term strong, long - term weak, with a positive spread arbitrage opportunity. The I2605 contract rose 2.01% to 811.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,239 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly rose [4] - **Influencing Factors**: Near - term, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict increased energy costs, and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases drove up prices. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.39 tons [4][5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Trend**: The cost center has risen, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The RB2605 contract of rebar rose 0.58%, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 0.52%. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [7] - **Influencing Factors**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on March 12, rebar production increased by 21.99 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.85 tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 18.49 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.1 tons. Apparent demand for both increased. In February 2026, China's steel imports decreased, exports increased, and relevant macro - policies were introduced [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Trend**: The market's long and short sentiments continue to compete, and prices are oscillating. Futures prices of ferrosilicon decreased, while those of silicomanganese increased [11] - **Influencing Factors**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported by Ferrous Alloys Online. Some silicon - iron plants resumed production, and steel mills' procurement prices and quantities for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied [11][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Trend**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2605 contract of coking coal rose 2.2%, and the J2605 contract of coke rose 0.6%. Some spot prices of coking coal increased [15] - **Influencing Factors**: On March 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index of some coking coals changed. The coking coal online auction had no unsold lots, with an average premium of 47.85 yuan/ton, and most prices rose [15] Thermal Coal - **Price Trend**: Supply and demand are loosening, and coal prices are回调. The prices of coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different trends, and the long - term agreement prices in March changed slightly [18] - **Influencing Factors**: The port thermal coal market continued to be weak on March 13. Port inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak due to the seasonal off - peak. China's coal imports from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year, with Mongolian coal imports being the main support [19] Logs - **Price Trend**: Supply has recovered, inventory has accumulated, and log prices have回调. Futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and trading volumes mostly decreased [20] - **Influencing Factors**: On the demand side, port departure was slow; on the supply side, port arrival recovered rapidly, leading to inventory accumulation. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target, and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [22]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2026年3月12日)-20260312
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and volatile with a slight upward bias respectively. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, as strong cost support helps the steel price stabilize in a volatile manner [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The supply pressure increases due to the resumption of production of construction steel mills, an increase in rebar output, and a high inventory level. The demand is also recovering, but it remains at a relatively low level, and the improvement space needs further tracking. With both supply and demand increasing, the steel price is under pressure, but the strong raw materials provide cost support, so it is expected to remain stable in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary of Key Points by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile with a slight upward bias. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is strong cost support and the steel price stabilizing in a volatile manner [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The supply pressure increases as construction steel mills resume production, rebar output increases, and the inventory level is high. The demand is recovering but remains low, and the improvement space needs further tracking. With both supply and demand increasing, the steel price is under pressure, but strong raw materials provide cost support, so it is expected to remain stable in a volatile state. The production and sales data released by Mysteel today should be monitored [3]
大类资产早报-20260311
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not mentioned in the provided content Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields for major economies include 4.158% in the US, 4.552% in the UK, 3.443% in France, 2.834% in Germany, 3.524% in Italy, 3.290% in Spain, 0.351% in Switzerland, 3.514% in Greece, 2.171% in Japan, 6.076% in Brazil, 1.817% in China, and 4.847% in Australia [1] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields are 3.593% in the US, 3.860% in the UK, 2.248% in Germany, 1.245% in Japan, 2.426% in Italy, 1.271% in China (1Y yield), and 4.433% in Australia [1] - **Dollar - Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: Latest rates are 5.159 for the dollar against the Brazilian real, 16.291 against the South African rand, 1466.050 against the South Korean won, 31.615 against the Thai baht, and 3.924 against the Malaysian ringgit. The on - shore RMB is 6.869, the off - shore RMB is 6.879, the RMB central parity rate is 6.898, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.748 [1] - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Latest values are 6781.480 for the S&P 500, 47706.510 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22697.100 for the Nasdaq, 67397.940 for the Mexican index, 10412.240 for the UK index, 8057.360 for the French CAC, 23968.630 for the German DAX, 17445.000 for the Spanish index, 54248.390 for the Nikkei, 25959.900 for the Hang Seng Index, 4123.138 for the Shanghai Composite Index, 32771.870 for the Taiwan index, 5532.590 for the South Korean index, 7440.913 for the Indian index, 1405.760 for the Thai index, 1701.680 for the Malaysian index, 8924.227 for the Australian index, and 1504.330 for the emerging economies' index [1] - **Credit Bond Indices**: Latest values are 3561.750 for the US investment - grade credit bond index, 266.918 for the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, 290.890 for the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index, 2928.260 for the US high - yield credit bond index, 410.440 for the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index, and 1842.996 for the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices are 4123.14 for A - shares, 4674.76 for the CSI 300, 2981.84 for the SSE 50, 3306.14 for the ChiNext, and 8410.30 for the CSI 500. The percentage changes are 0.65%, 1.28%, 0.64%, 3.04%, and 1.58% respectively [2] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values are 14.15 for the CSI 300, 11.48 for the SSE 50, 37.76 for the CSI 500, 26.51 for the S&P 500, and 17.90 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are 0.00, - 0.06, 0.58, - 0.06, and 0.33 respectively [2] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate is - 0.39 for the S&P 500 and 2.75 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are - 0.06 and - 0.09 respectively [2] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values are 349.57 for A - shares, 3.60 for the main board, 216.78 for the ChiNext, and 93.77 for the CSI 300. The 5 - day average values are - 119.52 for A - shares, - 182.70 for the main board, 44.93 for the ChiNext, and - 11.84 for the CSI 300 [2] Other Trading Data - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amount for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 23978.88, with a环比 change of - 2496.57. For the CSI 300, it is 1217.62 with a环比 change of - 495.95; for the SSE 50, it is 4641.20 with a环比 change of - 423.03; for the small - and medium - sized board, it is 6449.02 with a环比 change of - 52.77 [3] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis for IF is - 10.76 with a basis amplitude of - 0.23%, for IH it is - 0.44 with a basis amplitude of - 0.01%, and for IC it is - 16.70 with a basis amplitude of - 0.20% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices are 108.34 for T2303, 105.93 for TF2303, 108.31 for T2306, and 105.98 for TF2306. The percentage changes are - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.01%, and - 0.00% respectively [3] - **Funding Rates**: R001 is 1.3917% with a daily change of - 11.00 BP, R007 is 1.5029% with a daily change of 0.00 BP, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5492% with a daily change of 0.00 BP [3]
棕榈油:能源外溢终至,或有破万表现;豆油:美豆成本支撑,短期偏强突破
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 02:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Palm oil may exceed 10,000 due to energy spill - over; soybean oil is supported by US soybean cost and is expected to break through in the short - term [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,218 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,454 yuan/ton with a 2.56% increase; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,412 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,514 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price was 9,666 yuan/ton with a 1.87% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,814 yuan/ton with a 1.53% increase. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,365 ringgit/ton with a 3.76% increase, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 66.47 cents/pound with a 1.17% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 529,410 lots with an increase of 12,935 lots, and open interest was 375,530 lots with an increase of 10,859 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 350,299 lots with an increase of 75,028 lots, and open interest was 668,943 lots with an increase of 9,088 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 228,291 lots with an increase of 60,410 lots, and open interest was 292,389 lots with an increase of 13,493 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,200 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,150 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB price was 1,100 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 18 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 438 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 484 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 448 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 806 yuan/ton; palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 105 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On March 10, Malaysia's March 1 - 10 ITS, Amspec, SGS palm oil export volume data will be released; at 12:30 on March 10, the February MPOB Malaysia palm oil supply - demand report will be released; at 00:00 on March 11, the USDA supply - demand report will be released [3] Crop Insurance Prices - The 2026 federal crop insurance spring prices for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat have been finalized. Corn price is $4.62 per bushel, a decrease of 8 cents from the previous year; soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, a 55% increase from 2025; spring wheat price is $6.19 per bushel, a decrease of 36 cents year - on - year [5] Soybean Harvest Progress - As of the week of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state for the 2025/26 season has reached 89.15% of the sown area, exceeding the five - year average of 81.99%. The single - week harvest progress advanced 10.81 percentage points [5] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 2; soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [6]
焦炭:一轮提降落地,震荡偏强焦煤:能源属性持续发酵,震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The coke market has seen a round of price cuts and is expected to be volatile and moderately strong. The coking coal market has its energy - related attributes continuously developing and is also expected to be volatile and moderately strong [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Prices - JM2605 closed at 1123 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton or 1.6%. J2605 closed at 1695.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.1% [2] - JM2605 had a trading volume of 876,475 lots, an open interest of 496,857 lots, and an open - interest change of 8,364 lots. J2605 had a trading volume of 18,895 lots, an open interest of 37,714 lots, and an open - interest change of 891 lots [2] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - For coking coal, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, while other types of coking coal such as Lvliang low - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. For coke, the price of Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1525 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1395 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis and Spreads - The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi decreased by 17.5 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton; in Meng5, it decreased by 11.5 yuan/ton to 52 yuan/ton. The basis of J2605 for Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory decreased by 69 yuan/ton to - 163.5 yuan/ton [2] - The spread of JM2605 - JM2609 increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 93.5 yuan/ton, and the spread of J2605 - J2609 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 66.5 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 6, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1459 (unchanged), CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1170 (down 20), and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1164 (down 20) [2] - On March 6, the online auction of coking coal had a total listed volume of 246,800 tons, a non - successful bid rate of 1% (down 29% from the previous day), and an average premium of 35.57 yuan/ton. The listed resources were mainly primary coking coal, lean coking raw coal, and fat raw coal. The auction results showed mixed price changes. The downstream was willing to accept cost - effective resources, but with the first - round price increase of coke, most market participants were cautious and some were bearish on the future market, resulting in insufficient demand and a continuous decline in high - priced resources. Most of the auction resources had a price increase within 20 yuan/ton, a few had an increase of over 80 yuan/ton, and the price decrease was between 3 - 69 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is 0 [4]
瓶片:地缘抬高成本,投机性需求释放,短期偏强 20260303,短纤:地缘抬高成本,投机性需求释放,短期偏强 20260303
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 02:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are both "short - term bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical factors have raised costs, and speculative demand has been released, leading to a short - term bullish trend for both short - fiber and bottle - chip industries [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Short - fiber 2604 price increased from 6652 to 7002, a change of 350; short - fiber 2605 price increased from 6662 to 6990, a change of 328; short - fiber 2606 price increased from 6660 to 7251, a change of 326 [1] - PF04 - 05 spread changed from - 10 to 12, a change of 22; PF05 - 06 spread changed from 2 to 4, a change of 2 [1] - Short - fiber主力基差 changed from - 17 to - 167, a change of - 150 [1] - Short - fiber主力持仓量 decreased from 162016 to 145186, a change of - 16830; short - fiber主力成交量 decreased from 140088 to 118806, a change of - 21282 [1] - Short - fiber华东现货价格 increased from 6635 to 6835, a change of 200; short - fiber产销率 decreased from 93% to 88%, a change of - 5% [1] Bottle - chip - Bottle - chip 2604 price increased from 6172 to 6504, a change of 332; bottle - chip 2605 price increased from 6164 to 6490, a change of 326; bottle - chip 2606 price increased from 6284 to 6592, a change of 308 [1] - PR04 - 05 spread changed from 8 to 14, a change of 6; PR05 - 06 spread changed from - 120 to - 102, a change of 18 [1] - PR主力基差 changed from - 49 to - 292, a change of - 243 [1] - Bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased from 43512 to 44615, a change of 1103; bottle - chip主力成交量 increased from 55057 to 90987, a change of 35930 [1] - Bottle - chip华东现货价格 increased from 6235 to 6300, a change of 65; bottle - chip华南现货价格 increased from 6260 to 6300, a change of 40 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures rose significantly. Spinning polyester staple fiber factories raised quotes by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, with semi - bright 1.4D mainstream quotes in the 7000 - 7100 range. Driven by futures, prices of traders and futures - cash merchants also increased, and downstream replenishment was active. The average sales - to - production ratio was 88% by 3:00 pm, with some factories having sales - to - production ratios of 100%, 600%, etc. Hollow and low - melting - point short - fiber quotes were raised by 200 - 300 yuan/ton [2] Bottle - chip - Upstream raw material futures rose significantly. Polyester bottle - chip factories raised quotes by 50 - 220 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market improved significantly. Orders from March to May were mainly traded at 6420 - 6600 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some lower prices in the morning and a small amount of higher prices in the afternoon [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 1, indicating a "short - term bullish" trend based on the daily - session price fluctuations of the main contracts on the reporting day [3]
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260302
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 11:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the rise in crude oil prices supports the cost - end. After the holiday, PTA device restarts accelerate, inventory accumulates, and downstream polyester operating rate recovers. In the short - term, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost - end [3]. - For MEG, geopolitical situations lead to periodic price fluctuations and support costs, but high inventory restricts price increases. There is a direct risk of supply interruption. If the conflict persists, it may break the loose supply - demand pattern, and the main port inventory is expected to decline in March [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Situation**: On March 2nd, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 6.44%, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the Iran situation over the weekend, Brent crude oil rose above $80/barrel. Two PTA plants restarted, with the capacity utilization rate up 2.88% to 82.10% from the previous workday, and the PTA factory inventory was 5.47 days, up 1.46 days from last week [3]. - **Main Force Trends**: Long - position main forces increased positions [3]. - **Price Expectations**: Crude oil price increases support the PTA cost - end. In the short - term, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost - end [3]. MEG - **Market Situation**: On March 2nd, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 6.00%, and the basis was - 48 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3750 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton from the previous day. Crude oil drove the energy - chemical sector to strengthen. The total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 92.64 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous period [4]. - **Main Force Trends**: Short - position main forces reduced positions [4]. - **Price Expectations**: Geopolitical situations lead to periodic price fluctuations and support costs, but high inventory restricts price increases. There is a risk of supply interruption. If the conflict persists, it may break the loose supply - demand pattern, and the main port inventory is expected to decline in March [4].
硅铁:电费成本预期扰动,价格偏强震荡,锰硅:海外远期矿价抬升,价格偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 04:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the expected disturbance of electricity cost, and the price of silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the increase in overseas long - term ore prices [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2603 closed at 5706, up 174 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 4,562 and an open interest of 5,091; Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5726, up 188, with a trading volume of 346,957 and an open interest of 221,874 - Silicomanganese 2603 closed at 5982, up 100, with a trading volume of 3,195 and an open interest of 11,092; Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 6026, up 108, with a trading volume of 575,592 and an open interest of 446,255 [1] - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 from the previous trading day; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 695 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 05 futures) was - 446 yuan/ton, down 158; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese was - 326 yuan/ton, down 8 - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon (2603 - 2605) was - 20 yuan/ton, down 14; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese (2603 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton, down 8 - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 was 276 yuan/ton, down 74; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 was 300 yuan/ton, down 80 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On February 28, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5200 - 5300 (+50) yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5250 - 5350 (+50) yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5300 - 5350 (+75) yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5300 - 5350 (+50) yuan/ton; the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton - The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1070 - 1090 (+10) dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1120 - 1150 (+10) dollars/ton - The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [1] - **Ore Price Information**: - A large manganese mine in South Africa offered a price of 4.7 dollars/ton - degree for semi - carbonate manganese ore to China in April. CML offered a price of 5.6 dollars/ton - degree for Australian lumps (Mn>46% Fe<4% SiO2<18%) to China in April 2026, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree from last month - South32 offered a price of 4.6 dollars/ton - degree for South African semi - carbonate lumps (typical value Mn36.9%) in April 2026, up 0.1 dollars/ton - degree from last month; and a price of 5.25 dollars/ton - degree for Australian lumps (typical value Mn42%), up 0.05 dollars/ton - degree from last month [3] - **Procurement Information**: An East China steel mill group's East China base set the price of silicomanganese at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance and tax - included, delivered to the factory) and purchased 1000 tons [3] - **Inventory Information**: As of February 27, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port was 356.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.24 million tons; in Qinzhou Port was 133.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million tons; in Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; in Fangchenggang was 5.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory was 495.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.34 million tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1 [3]
低硫燃料油:预计将出现跟涨,外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳:燃料油:即将迎来大涨,波动将显著升高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 03:16
2026 年 3 月 2 日 低硫燃料油:预计将出现跟涨,外盘现货高低 硫价差暂时平稳 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 品 研 究 燃料油:即将迎来大涨,波动将显著升高 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2604 | 元/吨 | 2.944 | -1.04% | | 2.913 | -2. 25% | | | | FU2605 | 元/吨 | 2.960 | -2.25% | | 2. 923 | -2. 21% | | | | LU2604 | 元/吨 | 3.494 | 1. 30% | | 3.441 | -0. 41% | | | | LU2605 | 元/吨 | 3.500 | -0. 41% | | 3.447 | -0.52% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 ...