1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [3] - For polysilicon, in the short - term, a range - trading strategy is suggested, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating weakly, mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. The current fundamentals have little change, and the spot price has declined [2][3] - Polysilicon futures prices are in wide - range oscillation, mainly influenced by anti - involution policies. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain wide - range oscillation, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8500 yuan/ton and closed at 8390 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.89% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279,868 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,613 lots, a change of - 12 lots from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: Industrial silicon spot prices declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 150) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (- 150) yuan/ton [2] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a new monthly high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The import volume in July 2025 was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 5300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [2] - **Consumption**: The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The overall industry start - up of monomer plants was at a relatively high load, and the overall output was relatively stable compared with last week, but the implicit pressure on enterprises increased. In July 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxane was 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 325,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.85% [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 150,086 (137,977 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 704,931 lots [4] - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a month - on - month change of 3.86%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a month - on - month change of 3.60%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,300.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.30%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.67%) [6] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.54 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - **Component Price**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. For example, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has risen, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8195 - 8585 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 50370 - 53380 for the 2511 contract [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The inventory is 242,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 49,400 tons [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the flood season [6]. - Market indicators: The spot price in East China is 9050 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract is 660 yuan/ton, the social inventory is 545,000 tons, the sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, the main port inventory is 117,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20, and the main position is net short [6][17]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The battery cell and component production also have different trends in output, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,850 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,150 yuan/ton [9]. - Market indicators: The basis of the 11 - contract is - 4875 yuan/ton, the weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, and the main position is net long [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts have declined to different extents, with the decline rate ranging from 2.56% to 3.75%. The spot prices of different types of silicon in East China have also decreased, with the decline rate between 0.49% and 1.63% [17]. - The inventory of different regions and enterprises has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. The production and capacity utilization rate of different regions also show different changes [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different models are mostly stable. The inventory, output, and export of polysilicon - related products have different degrees of change [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Show the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21]. - **Inventory**: Include the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: Present the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization rate, and production of different specifications [28][29][30]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Show the historical trends of cost and profit for industrial silicon production in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Illustrate the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon and polysilicon [36][39][62]. - **Downstream Trends** - **Organosilicon**: Involve the price, production, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Include the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [51][54][56]. - **Polysilicon - Related**: Cover the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][65][68][71][74][77][78].

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20545 | -55 | -190 | -150 | ୧૩૨ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20490 | - | l | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2568 | -21 | -55 | -35 | 176 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 105187 | -4179 | 22107 | -21824 | -12038 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 234699 | 61704 | 23713 | -20447 | 50830 | 电解铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 16903 | 4003 | -230 | 4088 | 1727 | LME注销仓单占比 | 2. 93% | 0. 00% | -0. 05% | 0. 88% | -36. 70% | | | 0. 94 | LME 铝 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) futures and spot markets, providing data on prices, trading volumes, and inventories, along with market analysis and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It is in a stage of stopping the decline after the previous rebound. The destocking process in summer is tortuous, but the terminal备货 demand may pick up in mid - to late August. The key is to focus on the autumn stocking market rhythm and potential cost changes [2]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7334, 7312, and 7292 respectively, with declines of - 17, - 34, and - 14 and percentage drops of - 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.19%. For PP, the closing prices were 7048, 7048, and 7026, with declines of - 36, - 32, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.51%, - 0.45%, and - 0.45% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210483, 3872, and 77466. The open interests were 341906, 18090, and 147845, with changes of 23091, 1252, and - 25485. For PP, the trading volumes were 198520, 7133, and 56805. The open interests were 391720, 27047, and 99443, with changes of 28363, 1051, and - 11273 [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 22, 20, and - 42, compared to previous values of 5, 40, and - 45. For PP, the current spreads were 0, 22, and - 22, compared to previous values of 4, 22, and - 26 [2]. Group 5: Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. - **Intermediate Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. Group 6: News - On August 18, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.42 per barrel, up $0.62 or 0.99% from the previous day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.60 per barrel, up $0.75 or 1.14% from the previous day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: The actual demand for steel has limited improvement, and the price has corrected from its high level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Demand falls short of expectations, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The sentiment in the sector is weak, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][15]. - Coke and coking coal: The sentiment has declined, and the prices are correcting from their high levels [2][18][19]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton (-2.52%). The import and some domestic ore prices also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%). Inventory and production data also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. In July, financial statistics showed changes in M2, M1, etc. In late July, steel inventory and production data of key enterprises changed, and automobile production and sales data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [14]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [15][16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 decreased. Spot prices and various spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, financial statistics showed that M2 and M1 had year - on - year growth [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [25].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].