2026 年 01 月 09 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260109 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260109 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6472 | 6544 | -72 | PF02-03 | -72 | 12 | -84 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -19 | -2 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 112378 | 116315 | -3937 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 525 | 6,530 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 114060 | 126634 | -12574 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୧% | 74% | -8 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月9日，纽约期银日内涨2%，现报76.65美元/盎司。 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | なな女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓、主力换月至2603合约。今日上海铜贴水扩至125元,SMM社库周内增加1.96万吨至27.38万吨。前 期260 ...

每经AI快讯，1月8日，欧线集运期货主力连续合约跌9.08%，报1704点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is influenced by the tense situation in Venezuela and Indonesian policies, with funds flowing into the nickel sector, causing the price of the Shanghai nickel futures contract to hit a new high since June 2024. Although the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, it is expected to remain strong due to favorable policies from Indonesia and attention from profitable funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by the cost transmission of the sharp rise in Shanghai nickel and Indonesian nickel export restrictions. The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 143,500 yuan/ton and closed at 147,720 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,132,256 (+393,922) lots, and the open interest was 132,955 (+1,474) lots. The price hit a new high since June 2024, and the bullish sentiment of funds reached a climax [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has limited resources, and the price is stable with an upward trend. The 1.25 - grade nickel ore tender in the Philippines' Benguet mine was settled at $32.5, up from the previous level. In Indonesia, the first - phase domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the second - phase domestic trade base price is expected to rise by $3 - 5 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and spot trading was cold. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,776 (-612) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 275,634 (+20,088) tons [2]. Strategy - The operation strategy is mainly range trading for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,450 yuan/ton and closed at 14,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 288,456 (+151,355) lots, and the open interest was 112,880 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the cost transmission of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policies, it showed a one - way upward trend and closed at the daily limit. The spot price increased synchronously, but the market was in a state of "high price but few transactions" [4]. - **Spot**: The futures price hit the daily limit, and the spot price increased significantly. The downstream inquiry was active, but the transaction was cautious. Some steel mills suspended orders. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation. The operation strategy is neutral for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish Bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the main 03 contract settled at 64.85 cents, down 0.32%. The expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has encountered resistance at the 15,000 integer level after continuous upward movement. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may undergo some adjustments at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1) Market Quotes - ICE March contract settled at 65.06, up 41 points; May at 66.43, up 44 points; July at 67.74, up 43 points, with about 86,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 795,874 and an open interest of 1,246,090. The settlement prices were 15,100 for January, 14,965 for May, and 15,155 for September [2] 2) Important News - On January 4, spinning enterprises in the Bazhou area of southern Xinjiang purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 950 - 1050 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,500 - 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the United States had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01% [2] - As of now this season, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, 39% of which is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 998,000 tons of lint cotton [2] - The cotton - growing area in West Texas, USA, is dry and windy, while the temperatures in the central - southern and southeastern cotton - growing areas are rising [2] - On January 4, the spot price of cotton yarn rose slightly. After the holiday, spinning enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall production and sales in the market were relatively stable, mostly in a shipping state. The cotton yarn price continued to rise in some areas and remained stable in others [2] 3) Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has faced resistance at the 15,000 level. Due to the decrease in cotton planting subsidies in the new year and the increase in rigid demand from new production capacity in Xinjiang, short - term adjustments may occur, but the bottom support is strong [2] 4) Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an execution price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 LLDPE：标品排产继续回落，基差弱稳 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6642 | 0.96% | 662494 | -2207 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -162 | | -179 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -45 | | -39 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6480 | | 6400 | | | | 华 东 | 6550 | | 6450 | | | | 华 南 | 6550 | | 6490 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 LPG：进口成本坚挺，关注负反馈兑现 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2602 | 4,232 | 2.32% | 4,228 | -0.09% | | 期货价格 | PG2603 | 4,128 | 2.46% | 4,134 | 0.15% | | | PL2602 | 5,814 | 0.80% | 5,853 | 0.67% | | | PL2603 | 5,894 | 1.25% | 5,931 | 0.63% | | | PL2604 | 5,955 | 1.07% | 6,000 | 0.76% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 75,009 | 13977 | 59,220 | 12 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2603 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 801.0 | 4. 0 | 0. 50% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 640. 868 | 22. 093 | ...