尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2250-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 理 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿素期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | U ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to rise rapidly on Wednesday, especially in the Jiangsu region, a trading hub. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. In the inland areas, the centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol has passed, the production of coal - based methanol has further increased, the inland factory inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the pending orders have declined, the production of MTBE and acetic acid has decreased, and the formaldehyde production is still at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P production rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated) are presented. The port inventory increased rapidly, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inland factory inventory also increased, with the inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons) [2][22] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 43 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [22][39] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [58][60] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging - Inter - period: Wait and see - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, and the deep negative basis is maintained. There is currently a pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas. The port reflow to southern Shandong has opened, and the downside space depends on the inland performance. The coal - based methanol concentrated maintenance period has passed, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. The traditional downstream has seen a decline in pending orders and a drop in the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid, while the formaldehyde operating rate remains low [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis (such as methanol at Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia Northern Line, etc. relative to the main futures contract) and inter - period spreads (such as between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data are presented in figures with units of yuan/ton [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The units are yuan/ton or US dollars/ton [25][26][29] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report provides figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones). The units are tons and percentages respectively [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Figures display regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., with the unit of yuan/ton [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54][58]

Core Insights - The article discusses how Xinyan Group, a leading enterprise in the coal chemical industry, has evolved its approach to risk management by integrating futures trading into its operations, transitioning from a passive to an active optimization strategy [1][3][8] Group 1: Company Background and Initial Challenges - Xinyan Group, established in 2003 and listed in 2005, has a strong foothold in the coal chemical sector, with a management team experienced in the industry [1] - The company faced significant challenges due to market price volatility, with methanol prices dropping by 30% within six months and export profits for urea being eroded by international shipping costs [1] Group 2: Shift in Strategy and Learning Journey - In 2019, the team began exploring the futures market after a learning trip to southern China, where they observed successful integration of futures in trading practices [2] - The realization that futures could serve as essential risk management tools led to a shift in the company's mindset, prompting core team members to obtain futures trading qualifications [2][4] Group 3: Implementation and Operational Changes - By September 2024, Xinyan Group's subsidiary, Xinnuo Chemical, adopted a bold strategy of selling spot goods first and then repurchasing from the futures market, effectively locking in profits [4] - Xinnuo Chemical's operations have expanded significantly, with methanol trade volume reaching approximately 1.2 million tons in 2024, establishing a solid foundation for futures application [5] Group 4: Practical Applications and Benefits - The integration of futures pricing into the procurement, production, and sales processes has allowed Xinnuo Chemical to effectively manage costs and enhance customer loyalty through futures pricing options [5] - A collaborative approach with a methanol trader demonstrated the effectiveness of using futures to mitigate price discrepancies and reduce delivery costs [6] Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite notable successes, Xinyan Group still faces challenges related to understanding and decision-making barriers regarding futures trading [6][7] - The company plans to enhance training and expand its professional team to improve expertise in asset allocation and hedging strategies [7] Group 6: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - Xinyan Group's experience serves as a model for other enterprises in the industry, promoting a collaborative risk management ecosystem among regional chemical companies [8] - The integration of production, trade, and futures is seen as a transformative approach that not only stabilizes operations but also opens new avenues for value creation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the pulp industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment and transformation amid complex internal and external environments, with significant price fluctuations impacting companies' operations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, pulp prices showed a clear upward trend, leading to optimistic market expectations [1] - However, after high-level purchases of pulp by Company X, prices fell, resulting in inventory losses and increased storage costs [2] Group 2: Company Strategy - Company X, established in early 2020, began forming a pulp trading team by the end of 2021, achieving an annual trading volume of 340,000 tons and a trading value of 1.7 billion yuan [1] - The company engaged with Huazhong Futures to develop risk management strategies, leading to the establishment of a professional futures team and a strict hedging system [1][2] Group 3: Risk Management - Company X's hedging volume increased from approximately 18,000 tons in 2021 to 36,000 tons in 2023, demonstrating effective risk management through futures and options [2] - In response to market downturns, the company sold its existing inventory at market price to recover funds and mitigate further losses [3] Group 4: Derivative Tools Utilization - The company utilized options to hedge risks, converting inventory into option positions to avoid storage costs while generating premium income to offset previous losses [3][4] - Company X adopted a dual strategy of selling both put and call options to manage its positions effectively, thereby reducing holding costs and protecting against price fluctuations [4] Group 5: Future Plans - Looking ahead, Company X plans to expand its risk management toolbox by integrating futures, options, and basis trading, aiming to build a hedging alliance within the pulp industry [5] - The company seeks to enhance its risk management capabilities, transforming them into competitive advantages in the industry, and contributing to high-quality development in the pulp sector [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port is experiencing concentrated arrivals, increasing the pressure on port inventory accumulation. The pattern of a weak port and a strong inland region is maintained, and the 01 contract still contains the expectation of seasonal winter maintenance in Iran, maintaining a relatively high futures premium. Inland coal - fired methanol centralized maintenance period has passed, with the start - up rate increasing in early September and factory inventories starting to bottom out and rise. Downstream demand remains relatively weak [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][32][33] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) are presented in figures [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][44][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][54][56] Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 445 yuan/ton (+0), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 698 yuan/ton (-18). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2063 yuan/ton (-18), with a basis of 291 yuan/ton (+6); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2323 yuan/ton (-23), with a basis of 151 yuan/ton (+1); Henan is 2230 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 58 yuan/ton (+23); Hebei is 2265 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 153 yuan/ton (+48). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 333393 tons (+22600), and the northwest factory inventory is 214500 tons (+16500). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 216985 tons (+9615), and the northwest factory pending orders are 113300 tons (+8100) [1] Port Market - Taicang methanol is 2250 yuan/ton (-22), with a basis of - 122 yuan/ton (+1), CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-4), and the East China import price difference is - 20 yuan/ton (+10). Changzhou methanol is 2445 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2265 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 107 yuan/ton (+3). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1299250 tons (+223290), Jiangsu port inventory is 671500 tons (+124000), Zhejiang port inventory is 217500 tons (+58800), and Guangdong port inventory is 249000 tons (+31500). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 84.59% (+1.46%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 48 yuan/ton (+18), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-5), Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 323 yuan/ton (+1); Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 28 yuan/ton (-1); Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 165 yuan/ton (+2); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 155 yuan/ton (-22) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of companies in the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig and egg industries, through the use of futures tools to manage price risks effectively [1][5]. Group 1: Shanxi Jinrun Food - Shanxi Jinrun Food processes one million pigs annually and has established a complete industrial chain from breeding to sales, but has faced challenges due to the volatility of pig prices [2][3]. - The company experienced significant price fluctuations, with pig prices dropping below 10 yuan/kg in 2021, rising above 20 yuan/kg in 2022, and then falling again in 2023, leading to unstable profits [2][3]. - In 2023, the company joined the "Qifeng Plan," which provided professional guidance, helping them improve their risk management mechanisms and experience in hedging [3][4]. - By participating in the "Qifeng Plan," Shanxi Jinrun Food learned to use futures contracts to hedge against price risks, successfully implementing a strategy to lock in profits and manage inventory risks [4][3]. - The company has established a cross-departmental futures decision-making group, enhancing communication and making futures hedging a regular operational tool [4]. Group 2: Wuhan Huludang - Wuhan Huludang, a chicken egg trading company, faced price volatility risks and sought new risk management strategies as the egg industry modernized [5][6]. - The company initially relied on spot trading but found it ineffective against price fluctuations, prompting them to explore futures tools after learning about the "Qifeng Plan" [5][6]. - In 2023, Wuhan Huludang participated in the "Qifeng Plan," completing six hedging operations that generated approximately 150,000 yuan in profits, partially offsetting losses from the spot market [6][7]. - The experience gained from these operations has significantly increased the company's confidence in using futures tools, leading to a gradual increase in their hedging ratio [6][7]. - The company plans to deepen its understanding of the futures market and promote risk management awareness among industry partners [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 27, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market has basically digested the production restriction expectations for the military parade in North China. The pressure of steel over-seasonal inventory accumulation suppresses steel mill profits and the rebound space of steel prices, which in turn restricts the further upward movement of the cost side. The market shows a certain "desensitization" to positive factors and is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - Rebar 01 contract monthly price range: 3000 - 3300, current volatility: 15.97%, volatility percentile: 41.1% - Hot rolled coil 01 contract monthly price range: 3200 - 3500, current volatility: 15.81%, volatility percentile: 35.28% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and concerns about steel price decline, short rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if steel prices rise - RB2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3200 - 3250 - HC2501: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3350 - 3400 - RB2510C3300: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hopes to purchase according to orders, buy rebar or hot rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if steel prices fall - RB2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3100 - 3150 - HC2601: buy, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 3250 - 3300 - RB2510P3000: sell, hedge ratio 25%, recommended entry range 20 - 30 [2] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Export orders have slightly improved, military parade production restrictions, and coal mine supply events [5] Negative Factors - Steel shows over-seasonal inventory accumulation, raw material fundamentals weaken, and there is a large amount of warehouse receipts on the rebar 10 contract [5] Price Data Futures Closing Prices - Rebar 01 contract: 3172 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week - Rebar 05 contract: 3214 on August 27, down 9 from the previous day and 31 from the previous week - Rebar 10 contract: 3111 on August 27, down 2 from the previous day and 21 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 01 contract: 3341 on August 27, down 16 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 05 contract: 3348 on August 27, down 13 from the previous day and 34 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil 10 contract: 3349 on August 27, down 18 from the previous day and 53 from the previous week [6] Spot Prices - Rebar aggregate price in China: 3337 on August 27, down 8 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Shanghai: 3290 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Beijing: 3230 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Hangzhou: 3310 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week - Rebar aggregate price in Tianjin: 3260 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shanghai: 3380 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Lecong: 3380 on August 27, down 20 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week - Hot rolled coil aggregate price in Shenyang: 3340 on August 27, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [6] Other Data - Hot rolled coil overseas FOB and CFR prices, showing changes from August 20 to August 27 [7] - Rebar and hot rolled coil basis, monthly spread, volume-to-rebar spread, rebar-iron ore ratio, and rebar-coke ratio data, showing daily and weekly changes [8][9][12] - Seasonal data on basis, monthly spread, and profit for various steel products and raw materials, as well as cost and inventory data [13][20][32]