油料产业风险管理日报 2025/12/09 靳晚冬（投资咨询证号：Z0022725） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | 菜粕：2250-2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 2850-290 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 5 | | | 0 | | 饲料厂采购 管理 ...

[★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆增开 5 台、云南减少 2 台、四川下 降 14 台、内蒙增开 1 台。周末石河子启动重污染天气 II 级 （橙色）应急响应，关注后续影响。新疆大厂复产，有机硅和 出口需求弱于预期，导致更新平衡表后，12 月至明年一季度工 业硅也将单月累库 1-2 万吨，基本面情况不乐观。硅厂在盘面 高位时进行套保，当前库存压力不大，现货不愿低价出售。下 游在 8800 元/吨一线点价采购，周五期现出货情况尚好。 周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂增产，多晶硅新增交割品牌 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 当前现货龙头一线厂家 N 型致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千 克以上，颗粒料维持 50-51 元/千克，东方希望 N 型致密 49-51 元/千克。12 月多晶硅排产预计 11.2 万吨，库存继续累积。终 端需求下行，中游环节降价减产，行业库存高企，多晶硅现货 价格想要逆势上涨几无可能，但在行业自律和平台收储的叙事 下，头部多晶硅企业仍在强势挺价撑市。上下游的割裂感日益 加剧，但考虑到平台公司仍有序推进，我们预期多晶硅现货价 格或仍以持平为主。12 月 5 日广 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts oscillated downward this week. The 2601 contract closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, down 3,880 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 92,160 yuan/ton, down 4,260 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price dropped 500 yuan/ton to 93,250 yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the destocking amplitude slowed down, and overseas shipments continued to increase. The supply is expected to grow, while the destocking speed is expected to slow down due to the seasonal weakness in power demand. Currently, the market lacks new positive drivers, and the trading logic may return to fundamentals, with short - term prices under pressure [2][3]. - The future market outlook is weak and oscillating. The destocking slowdown exerts downward pressure on prices. The price of the futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 85,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio, and there is no recommendation for inter - period trading [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Side of Lithium Salt (Lithium Ore) - Nigeria's plan to suspend mining activities in the north for six months has limited short - term impact as mainstream lithium mines are not located in this area. Overseas resource shipments are steadily increasing. This week, Australian ore shipments increased by 0.4 million tons to 10.8 million tons, and Chilean shipments further increased to 9,617 tons, reaching a new high in the past four months. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons [2]. 3.2 Mid - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Salt Products) - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium salt products, including the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, processing costs, production volume by month, region, and raw material, as well as inventory and import - export volume [14][22][24]. 3.3 Down - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows charts of the monthly production and operating rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the import - export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries [29][33][35].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨,价格突破震荡区间之后连续走强,棉花现货主流销售基差变动不大,部分咯有下调。虽然 今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需 求总体持稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。市场对于国内新年度的种植有一定的利多预期，目标价格或有 所变化。关注郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月27号，累计加工皮棉528.5万吨，同比增加 79.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加157.2万吨。截至11月15号，棉花商业库存为363.97万吨,同比减少20.43万 吨。纯棉纱价格整体持稳,新增订单不足,少数大型纺企有让利去库现象,精梳高支纱走货尚可。郑棉突破 后,产业可以关注套保机会,操作上暂时观望或逢低轻仓试多。 (白糖) 隔夜美糖回调。巴西方面,虽然今年甘蔗压榨量和出糖率下降,但是制糖比例有所增加,弥补了食糖产量损 失，巴西的食糖产量将继续维持高位。北半球方面，印度和泰国开榨，由于天气条件较好,预计食糖产量同比 增加，关注后续生产情况。国内方面,郑糖弱势运行。10月份我国糖浆进口量同比下降，但是食糖进口较多， 供给端依然存在一定压力。从交 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-02 伊朗装置检修，但短期到港压力仍大 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润590元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1995元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差459元/吨（+2），内蒙南线1975元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2245元/吨（+15），鲁 南基差309元/吨（+14）；河南2125元/吨（+25），河南基差189元/吨（+24）；河北2130元/吨（+0），河北基差254元 /吨（-1）。隆众内地工厂库存373712吨（+15012），西北工厂库存209000吨（+20500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单230710 吨（-15610），西北工厂待发订单113500吨（-11900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2118元/吨（+8），太仓基差-18元/吨（+7），CFR中国246美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-30元/ 吨（-2），常州甲醇2345元/吨；广东甲醇2090元/吨（+10），广东基差-46元/吨（+9）。隆众港口总库存1363500吨 （-115840），江苏港口库存748000吨（-71300 ...

Core Insights - The futures market is increasingly empowering the development of a modern industrial system and agricultural strength in Henan province, with various futures products being launched that align with the local industrial structure [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Futures - In key peanut-producing areas like Junxian, farmers and buyers have adapted to using futures prices for transactions, enhancing market efficiency [1] - The "Huangludian Peanut" from Nanzhao County has gained recognition through futures delivery, showcasing the impact of futures on agricultural branding [1] - The futures market supports the entire peanut industry chain by providing price discovery and risk management, contributing to stable operations and quality improvements [1] Group 2: Industrial Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 14 agricultural futures products, covering Henan's key agricultural products, while also offering industrial futures that align with the local industrial system [1] - The futures market plays a crucial role in the "low-cost + differentiation" strategy of companies like Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group, optimizing procurement, sales decisions, and inventory management [1] Group 3: Regional Development and Policy Support - The integration of transportation, logistics, and industrial development in Henan is enhanced by the role of futures delivery warehouses, which have evolved from basic storage to comprehensive supply chain services [2] - The region has implemented supportive policies to strengthen ZCE's pricing influence and outreach, aiming to enhance the futures market's contribution to Henan's high-quality economic development [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The cotton market has support from low commercial inventories and fast sales progress, but short - term upward space is still cautiously viewed. The sugar market is expected to remain weak. The apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets have different supply and demand and inventory situations, with opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. The pulp market is in a situation of high inventory and weak demand. The timber market has low - inventory support [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous trading range. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high, and sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. The market has a certain bullish expectation for the new - year planting in China. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation is to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. The market's trading focus is shifting to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong are mainly for small and medium - sized fruits, and prices in the northwest are stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The de - stocking situation will be the main trading point in the future [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR continued to rise slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan产区 in China has entered the non - production period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has dropped significantly. The demand performance is average, natural rubber inventories are increasing, synthetic rubber inventories are starting to decrease, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The operation is to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price is fluctuating, and the spot price is stable. The external market price is still high, and domestic supply is expected to remain low. Port outbound volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and low inventory supports the price. The operation is to wait and see [8]

上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为350.5元/吨（+9.1），PP油制生产利润为-389.5元/吨（+9.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-393.0元/吨（-53.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-21.4元/吨（-54.6），PP进口利润为-221.6元/吨（-54.4），PP出口利润为1.6美元/吨（+6.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-25 需求季节性转弱，短期上行驱动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6793元/吨（+23），PP主力合约收盘价为6372元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6380元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为7元/吨（-23），LL华 东基差为107元/吨（-23）， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].