注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用的"行业 均衡"方式编制。从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列同类首位，是第二 名的三倍多，更多人选择中证A500ETF（159338），感兴趣的投资者或可关注中证A500ETF （159338）。 据央视新闻，针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同 志表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长 贡献率达到71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投 资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。 交银国际表示，2025年消费小幅回暖，展望2026 ...

12月15日，国家统计局公布中国经济数据：11月，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%，增 速连续六个月放缓；环比下降0.42%。 外界分析，"双11"等大促活动集中在10月下旬，提前拉动消费并转嫁部分销售至10月，可能导致11月同 比基数偏高，从而拉低增速。亦有机构分析，这反映出经济预期与信心不足，消费者在收入预期与就业 环境等影响下慎重支出。汽车等大宗耐用品的消费下行，表现较弱；餐饮收入3.2%增速，显著高于商 品零售，但在拉动总增速上仍显不足；服务消费恢复中，但仍未形成爆发式增长。 11单月，城镇消费品零售额37684亿元，同比增长1.0%；乡村消费品零售额6214亿元，增长2.8%。商品 零售额37841亿元，增长1.0%；餐饮收入6057亿元，增长3.2%。基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增长 较快。限额以上单位粮油食品类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类商品零售额同比分别增长6.1%、 20.6%、11.7%。值得注意的是，11月，国内汽车销量连续第二个月下滑。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数 较高。下阶段，要着力稳就业促增收，扩大 ...

中新社北京12月15日电 (记者 陈溯)中国国家统计局15日公布，11月全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖当天表示，近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要因为去 年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，今年社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。 来源：中国新闻网 国家统计局：今年中国社会消费品零售总额累计增长好于去年 付凌晖在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上表示，今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧 换新政策发力显效，带动了消费潜能释放。1至11月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于 上年同期，也快于上年全年。 从11月份情况看，付凌晖表示，中国市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长较快，新型消费继续壮大。 付凌晖表示，1至11月，中国服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个百分点，连续3个月回 升，且快于商品零售额增速，这意味着服务消费在全部消费中的比重提升。中国居民精神文化需求不断 扩大。1至11月，文体休闲服务类零售额保持两位数增长，网络影视等网上娱乐消费持续活跃，服务消 费潜力继续释放。 此外，新型消费稳步成长，线上消费、新兴消费发展向好。1至11月，实物商品 ...

与生产端"热"形成对比的是需求端"冷"。11月社会消费品零售总额同比仅增1.3%，环比回落0.4个百分 点，创年内新低。网上实物商品零售额虽保持5.7%的增速、占比升至25.9%，但未能对冲线下疲软。记 者获悉，消费乏力背后，是居民收入预期走弱与"预防式"储蓄抬头：前11个月居民存款再增超10万亿 元，五年累计新增逾60万亿元，余额已突破165万亿元。如何"唤醒"巨额储蓄，成为政策新命题。 "在工资性收入提升难度加大的背景下，提高居民财产性收入是撬动消费更快回升的关键。"某权威政策 研究机构人士向记者表示。目前，房价上涨预期已逆转，资本市场被寄予"接棒"厚望。数据显示，上证 综指年内已站上4000点，权益类公募基金前11个月销量突破5000亿元，占比首次超过固收类；全年新增 股民账户超2500万户，月均开户200万户，居民资产正呈现"存款—理财—权益"大迁徙。 投资端亦在"探底"。1—11月全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，若剔除房地产开发投资，则微增0.8%。 房地产下拉作用明显：开发投资同比深跌15.9%，连续三年负增长，拖累整体投资。业内预计，2026 年"收储+限供"政策有望加速落地，叠加保交楼资金闭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic consumption market in China has shown steady growth in October, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Summary by Categories Overall Consumption Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.63 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Retail Sales Breakdown - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of products related to trade-in programs [1] - Retail sales for communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Basic and Upgraded Goods Consumption - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The consumer market in October showed steady growth, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - Retail sales of goods increased by 2.8% in October, with significant growth in sales of trade-in related products, including communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture, which grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid consumption growth, with retail sales of grain and oil food and clothing and footwear increasing by 9.1% and 6.3% respectively [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, and outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] - Driven by holiday travel demand, retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained growth rates above 10% [1] - Restaurant income increased by 3.8% in October, with a growth acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [1] - The inbound tourism sector remained robust, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, marking a 19.8% increase [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices grew by over 20%, while smart wearable devices saw approximately 4% growth, and sales of first-level energy-efficient appliances increased by over 10% [2] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 7.3% in October, with a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] - From January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption outpaced urban consumption, with rural retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4.1% in October, 1.4 percentage points faster than urban areas [2] - From January to October, rural retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6%, outpacing urban growth by 0.4 percentage points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with the actual GDP growth for the first three quarters of this year recorded at 5.2%, indicating a positive trajectory towards achieving the annual target [1][2]. Economic Performance - The report from KPMG highlights that the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, with online retail sales showing a robust growth of 9.8% [1]. Investment and Consumption - The coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost domestic demand, particularly in investment, leading to a recovery in production [1]. - The introduction of 500 billion RMB in policy financial tools is anticipated to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure investment, resulting in a new round of production expansion for related equipment and upstream building materials [1]. Consumer Market Outlook - The report anticipates that promotional events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," along with holiday consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, will support the consumer market in the fourth quarter [2]. - Service consumption is expected to be a significant driver of growth in consumer spending during this period [2]. Export Performance - China has successfully expanded its exports to non-US markets, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in the first three quarters, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [2]. - The report suggests that the traditional overseas consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, combined with China's competitive advantages in high-end equipment and new energy products, will help maintain export resilience [2].

李振华、谢专/文 "十五五"规划建议指出："居民消费率要明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强""科技创新和产业创新深度融合，创新驱动作用明显增强。培育 壮大新兴产业和未来产业，着力打造新兴支柱产业"。 提高居民消费和推动科技与产业创新发展，离不开资本市场的支持，资金供给侧则离不开家庭财富配置结构的转变。居民要想增加财产性收入，实现财富保 值增值，也需要增加风险金融资产的配置比例。 消费疲软：财产性收入增速走低的映射 居民消费增速下行与财产性收入增速走低有一定关系。2025年社会消费品零售总额6月至9月增速已经连续4个月下行，9月份仅增长3%，这说明消费仍承 压。 居民消费增速下行有多方面原因，其中一个重要原因是财产性收入受到冲击。2021年到2024年，城镇居民的财产性收入同比增速从10.2%下降至2.2%，今年 前三季度同比增速进一步降至1.7%。需要注意的是，统计涵义的财产性收入指房租、利息、股息和分红等收入，不包括股票、基金和房产价格涨跌带来的 财富变化。 居民财富净值的变化会对消费产生更显著的冲击。2022年至2024年8月底，股票市场总体低迷，沪深300指数下跌了33%；期间房价也呈下行趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Guoquan (02517) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 4.37, with a trading volume of HKD 19.92 million, following the announcement of surpassing 60 million registered members ahead of schedule [1] Group 1: Membership and Store Growth - As of November 8, 2025, the company announced that its cumulative registered member count exceeded 60 million, achieving its annual target 50 days early [1] - In Q3 2025, the company added a net of 361 stores, representing a year-on-year increase of 98%, with a total of 250 net new stores added in H1 2025, indicating a significant acceleration in store openings [1] Group 2: Revenue Expectations - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between RMB 1.85 billion and RMB 2.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.6% to 25.8%, with a midpoint estimate of RMB 1.95 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [1] - The revenue growth trend from H1 2025 is expected to continue into Q4 2025, supported by the seasonal peak in sales [1] - Despite Q3 being a traditionally slower sales season, the company is expected to show a significant year-on-year profit margin improvement, with a higher proportion of non-self-branded product sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (02517), has seen a significant stock increase of over 5%, currently trading at 4.37 HKD, with a trading volume of 19.92 million HKD, following the announcement of surpassing 60 million registered members ahead of schedule [1] Group 1: Membership and Store Growth - As of November 9, the company announced that its cumulative registered member count exceeded 60 million, achieving its annual target 50 days early [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net increase of 361 stores, representing a year-on-year growth of 98%, with a total of 250 stores added in H1 2025, indicating a significant acceleration in store openings [1] Group 2: Revenue Performance - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.6% to 25.8%, with a midpoint estimate of 1.95 billion CNY, indicating a 19.8% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue growth trend from H1 2025 is expected to continue into Q4, supported by the seasonal peak in sales [1] - Despite Q3 being a traditionally slower sales period, the company anticipates a relatively high proportion of non-self-branded product sales, with a normal decline in profit margins compared to H1, while still achieving significant year-on-year improvements [1]