Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable core price trend [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor for the CPI decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decline [2] - The increase in core CPI and industrial consumer goods prices, along with rising prices for gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable goods, reflects positive changes in certain sectors driven by consumption-boosting policies [2][3] Group 2 - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [4] - The "May Day" holiday saw 314 million domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in the tourism market [5] - The tourism economy is expected to be a significant driver for domestic demand and economic growth, providing support for future price trends [5] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline, but marginal changes indicate improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [6] - The shift in consumer preferences from price sensitivity to quality prioritization is creating opportunities for innovation and development in related industries [6][7] - The increase in prices for high-end manufacturing sectors, such as aircraft and semiconductor equipment, reflects a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in industries [7]

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in May showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening growth margin of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry showed slight declines [2] - The demand for services increased, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by higher travel and accommodation costs [3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends [3][4] Group 3 - The hospitality and tourism sectors experienced price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3] - High-tech industries, including integrated circuits and wearable devices, saw price increases of 3.6% and 3.0% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end and innovative production [4] - The prices of photovoltaic and lithium battery manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, with decreases of 12.1% and 5% year-on-year, respectively [4]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

Economic Data Overview - Upcoming key economic data includes the June PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, with specific dates for release noted[2][12][13] - Recent US retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, below the expected 0.6%, with previous values revised down[3][10] - Eurozone's May CPI final value matched expectations at 1.9%, with core CPI at 2.3%[3][10] Employment and Consumer Confidence - Initial jobless claims in the US were 245,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.945 million[5][25] - Consumer confidence indicators are set to be released next week, which may impact market sentiment[2][12] Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased by 0.8% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices rose to $3.02 per gallon, up 1.1%[6][27] - The US import price index showed a 0% change in May, exceeding the expected decline of 0.2%[3][10] Financial Conditions - US financial conditions index remained stable at 0.292, while the Eurozone index slightly declined to 0.905, indicating tighter conditions[6][31] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed between the US and Japan, as well as between the US and Germany, reflecting changing market dynamics[6][37]

Core Insights - The core CPI shows improvement year-on-year, while the PPI continues to expand its year-on-year decline. In May, the CPI decreased month-on-month, but the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate increased. The PPI's month-on-month decline remained stable, with a year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points, both influenced by fluctuations in international energy prices [1][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month. The core CPI recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by a tail effect contributing approximately -0.2 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.1 percentage points [5][11]. - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh fruits, pork, and seafood prices rising, collectively impacting the CPI by 0.21 percentage points. Conversely, fresh vegetables and egg prices decreased, affecting the CPI by -0.19 percentage points. Non-food prices remained stable compared to last month [5][8]. - Energy prices decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, impacting the CPI's year-on-year decline by approximately 0.47 percentage points. However, some sectors showed positive price changes, such as gold jewelry and household textiles, which increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively [5][8]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline recorded -3.3% in May, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The tail effect contributed approximately -1.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about -1.5 percentage points. The production materials price decreased by -4.0% year-on-year, while the living materials price decreased by -1.4% [11][13]. - Major industries such as coal mining (-18.2%), oil and gas extraction (-17.3%), and kerosene processing (-14.7%) experienced significant price declines. However, prices in sectors like washing machine manufacturing and automobile manufacturing saw a reduction in their decline rates compared to last month [11][13]. - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with production materials prices decreasing by 0.6%. The oil and gas extraction industry saw a price drop of 5.6%, while refined petroleum products and chemical industries also experienced declines [13].

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as the previous month[10] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month[10] - The CPI month-on-month growth rate turned negative at -0.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[10] Group 2: Energy Prices Impact - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month and decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.13 and 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline, respectively[10] - The oil and gas extraction industry saw prices drop by 5.6%, while refined petroleum product manufacturing prices fell by 3.5%[28] - The coal mining industry experienced a price decline of 3.0%, with coal processing prices down by 1.1%[28] Group 3: PPI Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded -3.3%, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points compared to last month[24] - The PPI month-on-month decline remained at -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[26] - Production material prices decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, while living material prices saw a decline of 1.4%[24] Group 4: Consumer Demand and Price Changes - Consumer demand showed marginal improvement, with seven major categories of prices rising, except for transportation and communication, which fell by 4.3%[10] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables and eggs contributing to the decline[17] - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, exceeding seasonal levels[20]

Core Insights - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a month-on-month decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [1][4] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][17] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in food prices, which rose by 0.2%, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points, and a notable recovery in travel service prices due to demand recovery and holiday effects [6] - Year-on-year, the CPI decline was influenced by a drop in energy prices, which fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI decline [7] - The stable growth of core CPI reflects the resilience of the domestic economy, supported by a recovery in travel demand and the impact of consumption promotion policies implemented since last year [3][8] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international input factors and seasonal declines in domestic energy prices [17] - Despite the overall decline, some industrial sectors showed signs of improvement due to enhanced demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting macro policies, leading to price increases in certain areas [17][18] - The ongoing development of high-tech industries is expected to positively impact related sector prices, contributing to a potential recovery in PPI [18] Future Outlook - Market analysts generally anticipate a moderate recovery in CPI in the upcoming period, supported by new incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption [11][13] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption is expected to lead to a gradual increase in core CPI from its current low levels [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decrease in both indices, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy. It emphasizes the need for effective demand stimulation and policy coordination to enhance economic recovery and stabilize prices. CPI Analysis - In April 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year change was -2.7%, lower than the previous -2.5% [1][7] - The CPI month-on-month change was 0.1%, an improvement over the negative growth seen in February and March. Key price increases were driven by reduced imports affecting beef prices, increased travel activity during the May Day holiday, and rising gold prices [8][9] - Beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month in April, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.9 percentage points. Travel-related costs, including airfare and accommodation, saw significant increases, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI month-on-month [8][9] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month change was -0.4%, unchanged from March. Input price pressures remain significant, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, which saw a month-on-month decline of 3.1% [10][11] - The steel industry continues to face the necessity of capacity reduction, with black metal smelting prices decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month. The construction sector supports cement prices, while the automotive industry experiences ongoing price declines due to technological advancements and market competition [10][11] - The article anticipates that the PPI year-on-year decline may continue to widen due to elevated bases from May to July and external demand pressures affecting capacity utilization in certain industries [4][12] Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that the relationship between money supply and prices is complex and depends on supply-demand dynamics. Effective demand stimulation is crucial for price recovery, necessitating coordinated policies across various sectors [5][14] - The article suggests that optimizing the supply-demand ratio is essential for positive effects from monetary policy expansion. Key policy paths include boosting consumption, stabilizing local investment, and promoting technological and industrial innovation [6][15]