Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that polyolefins will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Although the previous cost increase and macro - economic improvement have driven the rebound of polyolefins, their own upward momentum is insufficient. Currently, the peak - season demand is below expectations, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Additionally, the anti - involution policies for the polyolefin industry have not been implemented yet [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Trend - Plastic and PP prices first rose and then declined [4]. b. Production Rate - Plastic production rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points to around 85%, at a neutral level. New maintenance devices such as those in Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density production were added [15]. - PP production rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. New maintenance devices like those in CNOOC Daxie's new first - line were added, while some devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's second - line restarted [15]. c. Downstream Production Rate - As of the week ending October 31, PE downstream production rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film sector is in the peak season with increasing orders and raw material inventory, reaching a neutral level in recent years, packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream production rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [21]. - As of the week ending October 31, PP downstream production rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic - weaving production rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, and plastic - weaving orders decreased slightly compared with the previous week and were slightly lower than the same period last year [21]. d. Basis - Spot prices were stable, while futures prices declined. The basis of the 01 contract rose to 201 yuan/ton, at a neutral - low level [24]. e. Inventory - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons week - on - week to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [28]. f. Cost and New Capacity - Recently, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - New production capacity includes the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou)'s 500,000 - ton/year LDPE and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 24, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Some commodities like fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs had significant increases, while others like red dates and polysilicon declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing upward trends but facing pressure, some in a state of supply - demand balance, and others with uncertain outlooks due to various factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 24, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs rose over 3%, international copper nearly 3%, and Shanghai copper and SC crude oil over 2%. Red dates fell over 4%, polysilicon over 1%, and rebar nearly 1%. Stock index futures rose, with CSI 1000 rising 2.41% leading the way, while treasury bond futures mostly fell, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.24% the most. In terms of capital flow, Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 2.504 billion yuan, while CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 5.183 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and went high, rising during the day. September 2025 refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, up 10.1% year - on - year and down 2.7% month - on - month. 1 - 9 months cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, up 10.0% year - on - year. Copper price is supported by rigid demand and expected tight supply, but the high price is hard for downstream to accept. The price trend is still upward but with pressure, so be cautious about chasing the rise [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Battery - grade and industrial - grade prices both rose 600 yuan/ton. Supply is growing steadily, and demand from the downstream battery industry is strong. The inventory in September was significantly reduced, and the price is supported by fundamentals [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase production in November, increasing supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, but US refinery operations rebounded, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased slightly in October. Downstream industry operations mostly rose, and national shipments increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased slightly. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the basis in Shandong has dropped significantly. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14]. - **PP**: Downstream operations rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operation rate was around 80%. New production capacity was put into operation, and recent maintenance increased. Cost rose due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operation rate was around 86.5%, and downstream operations rose. New production capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price rose. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream operations continued to rise. Export expectations weakened in the fourth quarter, and social inventory was high. New production capacity was put into operation. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [19]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Mongolian coal imports decreased, and domestic supply was short. Demand from coke enterprises supported the price, but downstream steel mills' profits shrank. Pay attention to major conferences and Mongolian coal imports [20][21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose, and the spot market followed. Daily production decreased slightly, and the cost increased. Demand from compound fertilizer factories increased, and inventory accumulation was slow. The market is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes [22].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 5%, coke, SC crude oil, and lithium carbonate up over 4%, and fuel oil and eggs up over 3%. In terms of declines, rapeseed and palm oil fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 500 2512 had capital inflows, while AU 2512, M 2601, and AG 2512 had outflows [6] - The prices of copper, lithium carbonate, and coking coal are expected to be strong, while the prices of crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, and urea are expected to fluctuate, with crude oil in a supply - surplus pattern [8][10][20] Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some falling. Stock index futures rose, and treasury bond futures fell. As of 15:17 on October 23, some contracts had capital inflows, and some had outflows [6] Market Analysis Copper - In September 2025, China's refined copper production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The total output from January to September increased year - on - year. Copper mine disruptions limit price declines, and the supply is expected to be tight. Although the downstream acceptance of high prices is low, demand has rigid support. Overall, copper prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [8] Lithium Carbonate - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand are both strong. The supply is growing steadily, and demand is strong due to the downstream battery industry. Although demand may decline slightly next month, the price is expected to be supported and fluctuate strongly in the short term [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will increase production in November, which will increase supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, and the inventory has increased. Although the price has fallen significantly since October, it is expected to rebound due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease slightly in October. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The asphalt basis has declined recently. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14] PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates of PP are at relatively low levels. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate has increased slightly. The downstream is in the peak season, but the demand is less than expected. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [17] PVC - The PVC开工 rate has decreased, and the downstream recovery is significant but still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is high. Although the cost has increased, PVC is expected to fluctuate [18][19] Coking Coal - The coking coal price is strong. The supply is short due to production control and import reduction. The demand has rigid support, and the price is expected to be supported by demand [20][21] Urea - The urea futures price rose. The cost has increased, and the demand is improving due to the start of wheat sowing. The market atmosphere is getting better, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - On October 22, 2025, the plastic industry's maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate at around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film in the peak season. However, overall, the downstream PE operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The new capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Considering factors such as the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the mutual collection of special port fees for ships, and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastic industry, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current inventory was at a neutral level. With new capacity put into production, the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Due to factors like Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the lack of anti - involution policies, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract rose with reduced positions, closing at 6936 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The trading range was from 6873 to 6956 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 12,101 lots to 549,864 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 22, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Wednesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $770/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $780/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 17, 2025. Metals like gold and silver rose, while some commodities such as caustic soda and glass declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors influencing their prices, with most being expected to show a weak - to - sideways trend [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 17, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, and red dates rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, caustic soda fell over 4%, glass fell over 3%, and rapeseed meal, live hogs, and SC crude oil fell close to 3%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7] - As of 15:22 on October 17, in terms of capital flow,中证1000 2512 had an inflow of 3.136 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2512 had an inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, and Shanghai silver 2512 had an inflow of 601 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2512 (749 million yuan), SSE 50 2512 (727 million yuan), and CSI 500 2512 (526 million yuan) [7] 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened low, rose, then fell back. Codelco and Aurubis will charge record - high premiums to European customers next year. Supply is expected to be tight due to frequent disruptions at international copper mines and smelter overhauls. Although demand is strong during the peak season, high copper prices have curbed downstream consumption. The overall fundamentals remain tight, and copper prices are still in an upward range [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and trended strongly. Supply is growing steadily, and demand is in the peak season. Both production and demand are strong, with good demand performance during the peak season, increasing downstream production orders, and decreasing warehouse receipts [12] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season is over, and the overall oil inventory has increased. With geopolitical risks easing and concerns about demand, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to view it as a weak - sideways trend [13][14] - **Asphalt**: The supply side's operating rate has rebounded, and production is expected to decrease slightly in October. Downstream demand is restricted by factors such as funds and weather. With high - pressure on crude oil supply - demand and falling prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to be weakly sideways [15] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate has slightly increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost side is under pressure due to oil price drops. Although the peak season is approaching, demand is less than expected, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [16][17] - **Plastic**: The operating rate has risen, and the downstream is in the peak season, but demand is less than expected. New production capacity has been added, and the cost side is affected by oil prices. It is expected to be weakly sideways [18] - **PVC**: The supply - side operating rate has decreased, and downstream recovery is limited. Export expectations have weakened, and inventory pressure is high. With no actual anti - involution policies in place, it is expected to be weakly sideways [20] - **Coking Coal**: It opened high and closed up. The supply has increased, while demand is affected by the losses of coking enterprises. However, the peak season provides some support, and attention should be paid to key domestic meetings and coke price increases [21][22] - **Urea**: The futures price opened high and trended weakly. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is affected by weather and market sentiment. Factory inventories are accumulating, and it is expected to be in a short - term low - level sideways trend [23]

Report Title - PVC 2025 Q4 Report: New Capacity Launch vs. Anti-Involution Game [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Cost side: Calcium carbide prices rose due to coal price increases and orderly power consumption, but with overall oversupply, the room for further price increases to drive up PVC prices is limited. Under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the shutdown of PVC plants. PVC operating rates have reached relatively high levels for the same period in history. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but the new capacity of 1.4 million tons/year put into operation in August - September will be fully released in Q4, and the 300,000 tons/year capacity of Jiahua Energy may be put into operation in Q4, so it is expected that autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity. The six - department joint plan for stable growth in the building materials industry has not yet had actual policies implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old plants to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect future market trends. From January to August 2025, the real estate market was still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was at the lowest level for the same period in history, and real estate improvement still requires time. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still below the boom - bust line. PVC downstream operating rates have not significantly improved and are at a low level since March. Downstream products are cautious about restocking. Q4 is the peak construction season for real estate projects, and domestic consumption may increase seasonally, so PVC demand may improve slightly. The export growth rate of PVC floor coverings has slowed significantly. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics' October quotation was stable. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50/ton for the Chinese mainland. China's PVC export outlook is weakening in Q4. Currently, PVC social inventory is rising, with high pressure, and warehouse receipts are at a historical high, and the PVC basis is low, with supply still in surplus. It is expected that PVC will mainly seek a bottom through oscillations, and after continuous price declines, its valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. Of course, favorable real estate and anti - involution policies and improved external demand will stimulate PVC to rise periodically, especially in October when major policies may be introduced. For arbitrage, a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [6][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Price Trends - Indian PVC spot prices have risen slightly since April 2025, and China's PVC spot export profits have increased slightly. After the main contract shifted to the 2601 contract, the spot price in East China again became deeply discounted. Recently, the 01 basis has rebounded slightly but is still at a relatively low level for the same period in recent years. PVC2601's top 20 net positions have always been in a short position. PVC warehouse receipts decreased from the historical high to 0 at the beginning of 2025 but then continued to rise and reached a new historical high due to weak spot demand and the futures still at a premium to the spot [15][20][25]. PVC Upstream - Affected by orderly power consumption, the calcium carbide operating rate dropped to 64% after March, at a low level. With the increase in the cost of semi - coke, calcium carbide prices rebounded continuously from a low level in September, with a rise of 210 yuan/ton in the northwest region but still about 200 yuan/ton lower than the end of last year. Semi - coke prices also increased significantly in September. Calcium carbide profits were stable but still in a loss state, and the semi - coke loss margin was stable, with the operating load rising to a neutral level of 56% [33]. PVC Profits - The continuous decline in PVC spot prices has led to losses in both the calcium carbide and ethylene methods of PVC production. However, under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the concentrated shutdown of PVC plants [40]. PVC Output and Operating Rates - In August 2025, PVC output increased by 3.43% month - on - month to 2.0733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.09%. From January to August 2025, cumulative PVC output was 16.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04%, at the highest level for the same period in recent years. The PVC maintenance loss in August decreased by 3.22% month - on - month to 577,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PVC maintenance loss was 4.2349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period in recent years. In August 2025, the PVC operating rate was 78.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.13 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points, at a relatively high level for the same period in history. Supported by the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the PVC operating rate has remained at a relatively high level for the same period in history in the past three months. As of the week of September 26, affected by plants such as Heilongjiang Haohua and Gansu Jinchuan, the PVC operating rate increased by 2.01 percentage points month - on - month to 78.97%, rising to a relatively high level for the same period in recent years [48][51]. PVC New Capacity - Although the new capacity of the calcium carbide method has slowed down due to poor profits and environmental protection policies, there were still multiple sets of new ethylene - based PVC capacity put into operation in 2025, especially in August - September, and most are located in East China. Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year capacity was put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year capacity is expected to achieve stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year capacity was put into operation in early September and is currently close to full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year capacity is in the trial - run stage in September. Attention should also be paid to the commissioning progress of Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year capacity [54]. PVC Maintenance - In addition to long - term shutdowns of plants such as Taishan Yanhua and Shandong Dongyue, a few newly added plants in 2025, such as Suzhou Huasu and Salt Lake Magnesium, are still under maintenance. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but it is expected that with the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity [56]. PVC Imports and Exports - In August 2025, PVC imports were at the lowest level for the same period in history, and exports decreased month - on - month due to concerns about Indian anti - dumping duties but still remained at a relatively high level. The proportion of China's exports to India dropped to 39.22%. The net export volume of PVC in August decreased to 271,700 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 11.24% and a year - on - year increase of 49.86%, still at the highest level for the same period in recent years. In September, there was still a small profit in PVC exports, but Indian anti - dumping duties and the BIS certification policy will suppress China's PVC exports in Q4. China's PVC production capacity accounts for 45% of the global total. While the domestic real estate market is in adjustment, developing countries such as India and Vietnam have strong demand for PVC but insufficient domestic production capacity. Although India's anti - dumping policy is unfavorable for China's exports to India, China can increase exports to other countries like Vietnam, but this will take time, and it is expected that this shift cannot fully fill the Indian gap in Q4 [63][73]. Real Estate Data - From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment widened by 0.9 percentage points to - 12.9% compared to January - July. The year - on - year decline in national land purchase fees widened by 1.3 percentage points to - 10.2%. The year - on - year decline in national housing construction area widened by 0.1 percentage point to - 9.3%. From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. As of the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 9.49% week - on - week but was at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August, the housing completion area was 27.694 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [79][84][88]. PVC Floor Covering Exports - In August, the export volume of PVC floor coverings decreased by 1.50% month - on - month to 347,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.49%, at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor coverings was 2.795 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. Affected by the global trade war, especially the Sino - US trade war, China's PVC floor covering exports have performed poorly [92]. PVC Downstream Operating Rates - Despite the government's introduction of multiple real estate stimulus policies, the performance of the PVC downstream in 2025 has been cautious, and the recovery of operating rates has been slow. As of the week of September 26, the PVC downstream operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points month - on - month to 47.76%, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points. The policies have not yet been transmitted to the PVC demand side, and the demand for downstream PVC pipes and profiles is at a low level for the same period in history [97].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - China plans to address the over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are plans to restart some methanol plants in late August, and high port inventories will have a certain restraining effect. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading in the range of 2350 - 2400 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The policy of addressing over - capacity in the petrochemical industry is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, while the port market is affected by weak demand and high inventories. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region is 671 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2250 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 261 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2299 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian also have corresponding changes [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price is 2372 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 10,366, a decrease of 100 compared to the previous period [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis in Jiangsu is - 107, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. There are also corresponding changes in import spreads and regional spreads [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to various reasons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have different operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are also in normal operation or under maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China are in normal operation, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production increases or shutdowns [58].