Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

2025年迄今，美国国债市场在全球债券市场中表现名列前茅，英国和加拿大国债紧随其后。若本周后期美债收益率跳升，英国和加拿大国债收益率或将跟随 上行。欧洲债券表现落后，可能继续承压，若欧洲央行宣布延长降息周期暂停期，其收益率同样可能走高。 上周债券收益率相对稳定，但本周央行决议及重要经济数据发布可能促使市场重新评估2026年主要央行降息预期。CAMarkets据悉目前联邦基金期货利率显 示美联储明年将降息两次，比美联储公开市场委员会当前预期多一次。美国国债若想延续强势走势，本周劳动力市场数据必须配合。若出现劳动力市场复苏 迹象，将击碎市场对明年多次降息的预期，届时联邦基金期货市场将与当前FOMC对未来降息的预期保持一致。 特朗普公布美联储人事任命前美元走弱 美元指数上周在G10货币中表现垫底，连续第三周下跌，创下三个月来最长连跌纪录。如下图所示，美元指数已跌破200日均线，这预示着可能进一步走 弱。尽管美国长期债券价格下跌/收益率上升，但美元反弹的希望正在消退。这可能反映出市场对美元缺乏信心。投资者或许担忧本周即将公布的下任美联 储主席人选与特朗普总统关系过于密切，可能引发白宫对美联储的干预。亦或外汇市场对美国 ...

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

北京时间12月12日亚市早盘，美元兑瑞郎交投于0.8725附近，日内微涨0.05%，延续近期震荡偏强走 势。此前汇价在0.8680-0.8740区间内温和攀升，多头动能释放节奏平缓，尚未出现明确趋势性突破信 号，市场目光聚焦于瑞央行政策动向、美联储指引及欧美经济数据的边际变化。 货币政策导向差异是驱动汇价走势的核心逻辑。瑞士央行上周议息会议明确将利率维持在0水平不变， 政策声明中虽强调"密切关注汇率波动对通胀的传导作用"，但未释放进一步宽松或入市干预的信号，维 稳立场显著，这在一定程度上限制了瑞郎的升值空间。反观美联储，在年内"三连降"落地后政策态度趋 于中性，市场普遍预期2026年降息节奏将相对平缓，美元利差优势虽有所削弱，但相较于维持零利率的 瑞郎仍具备一定吸引力，为美元兑瑞郎提供阶段性支撑。 欧美经济数据表现分化，进一步加剧汇价震荡格局。美国方面，上周初请失业金人数创疫情后最大单周 增幅，但核心零售销售、工业产出等关键数据仍显韧性，显示经济暂无大幅衰退风险，支撑美元指数企 稳运行。瑞士方面，11月CPI年率录得1.2%，处于温和通胀区间，通胀压力较小为瑞央行维持宽松政策 提供了充足空间；同时瑞士制造业P ...

专家分析认为，议息会议传递的未来政策信号和美联储内部团结度值得关注。美联储两大使命是促进充 分就业和维持物价稳定，然而在今年10月的货币政策会议上，美联储官员当时已就12月是否进一步降息 出现明显分歧。 受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"影响，多项关键经济数据发布延迟，这意味着美联储在数据受限的条件下进 行利率决策。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪认为，对美联储决策而言，关键数据缺失可能造成多方面的影响： 一是决策模式转向谨慎；二是内部分歧进一步加深，各自抓住有限的数据片段支持自己的立场。 中新社北京12月11日电 (陶思阅)如市场预期，北京时间11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金 利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发表声明称，经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的 下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 就本次降息25个基点，联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中9人投票赞成，有3人投反对票。其中一名委员要 求降息50个基点，另外两名委员主张维持利率不变。据悉，这是自2019年以来首次 ...

[music] What is economic data and why is it vital for investors. Economic data comes in many forms and it informs investors and economists on the state of the economy which has many facets from jobs data to housing data. There's consumer confidence data and inflation data and so much more.Altogether they paint a picture of how the US economy is doing and if we're in an economic expansion or economic contraction. Additionally, they often have an immediate impact on the market. If jobs data misses expectation ...

哈塞特表示，美联储主席最重要的职责是关注经济数据，避免卷入政治。如果特朗普总统施压美联储主 席降息，而这与主席的经济判断相悖，你只需做正确的事情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of economic data in the weeks leading up to the Federal Reserve's December meeting is expected to significantly impact policy outlooks, with Fed Chair Powell likely to remain vague about January's interest rate decisions [1] Economic Data Release - A wave of "catch-up" economic data will be published, including the non-farm payroll reports for October, November, and December, as well as CPI data for November and December [1] - The cumulative effect of this data is anticipated to redefine market perceptions of the economy's performance following the government shutdown [1]

今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于38.25一线上方，今日开盘于58.13美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报58.29美元/盎司，上涨0.32%，最高触及58.42美元/盎司，最低下探57.86美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 哈塞特称赞鲍威尔在本次会议前有效协调了FOMC内部意见："我认为他在'管好一屋子猫'方面做得很 好，成功凝聚了降息共识。我相信鲍威尔也认同我的观点——我们可能应该继续降低利率。" 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银价格在前期高点下方窄幅整理而非深度回调，是市场内在力量稳固的标志。10日均线当前正向上朝 价格靠拢，该均线自被果断收复以来已连续两周未被触及，即将迎来本轮涨势启动后的首次真正考验。 若能在此成功坚守，将重现20日均线在11月完美防守后启动当前行情的经典走势，极有可能推动价格开 启新一轮加速上涨。 若长期上升通道上轨转化为阻力位，白银可能迎来更深度的回调，这是一条较为不利但仍具可能性的技 术路径。当前多重技术指标已密集汇聚于59.89至60.20美元区间，形成近端上行关键阻力；若银价能有 效突破该区域，将迅速打开上测63.42至67.94美元 ...

摘要今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于950元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报952.42元/克， 涨幅0.14%，最高触及954.06元/克，最低下探949.68元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，工行纸黄金价格报953.56元/克，日内微涨0.26%，但较前一日高点954.06 元/克呈现回落迹象。 【要闻速递】 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞特被视为美联储下任主席的热门人选。他近日表示，让美联储提前 设定未来六个月利率目标是不负责任的做法，强调应依据经济数据灵活调整政策。 哈塞特指出，美联储主席的职责是观察数据、做出调整并解释行动原因，而非预先承诺特定政策路径。 对于市场关注的降息次数问题，他拒绝给出具体预测，仅表示需密切关注经济数据。当前，美国总统特 朗普曾呼吁将基准利率降至2%以下，而市场预期本周美联储将降息25个基点。 哈塞特认为，鲍威尔在协调委员会意见方面表现出色，促成了降息共识。他还提到，人工智能领域的投 资可能带来积极供给冲击，为经济增长和降低通胀创造有利条件，进而对债券市场产生正面影响。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 纸黄金亚盘窄幅震荡于946- ...