Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 100 points on Thursday [1] - The Dow decreased by 0.04% to 46,000.59, while the NASDAQ rose by 0.49% to 22,370.12 and the S&P 500 increased by 0.29% to 6,619.34 [1] Sector Performance - Information technology shares increased by 0.8% on Thursday [1] - Materials stocks fell by 0.7% [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims declined by 33,000 to 231,000 in the second week of September, better than market estimates of 240,000 [3][9] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to +23.2 in September, the highest level since January, compared to -0.3 in August [11] Commodity Prices - Oil prices increased by 0.5% to $64.37, while gold decreased by 0.4% to $3,701.70 [6] - Silver fell by 0.1% to $42.110 and copper dropped by 0.5% to $4.6135 [6] International Markets - European shares were higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.8% [7] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 1.15% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling by 1.35% [8] Company News - 89bio, Inc. shares surged 85% to $14.97 after announcing an acquisition agreement with Roche [10] - Aeries Technology, Inc. shares also rose 85% to $1.0500 following a partnership announcement with an annual contract value of up to $8 million [10] - Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. shares increased by 57% to $2.2201 after breakthrough clinical results [10] - Replimune Group, Inc. shares dropped by 40% to $3.4288 as the company evaluates FDA feedback [10] - BioCardia, Inc. shares fell by 34% to $1.02 after announcing a public offering and trial results [10] - Office Properties Income Trust shares decreased by 28% to $0.4066 [10]

Macro Economic Group - In August, the industrial added value above designated size in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8%, and down 0.5 percentage points from July. Cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [5] - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3%, and down 1.1 percentage points from January to July. Manufacturing investment was at 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, while real estate investment plummeted by 12.9% [5][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August saw a nominal year-on-year growth of 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, and down 0.3 percentage points from July. The cumulative growth from January to August was 4.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Following talks between U.S. and Chinese officials, a framework agreement was reached regarding TikTok's ownership, indicating that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to worsen in the short term. The probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in September has increased, which may positively impact the domestic economic and capital market environment [10] - The sales of forklifts in August reached 118,087 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Cumulative sales from January to August were 976,026 units, up 12.9%, indicating a sustained high level of market activity driven by electrification and automation [11] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 114,353 units from January to August, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 178.84%. In August alone, sales were 17,922 units, marking a 181.66% increase year-on-year [13] - The supply ecosystem for new energy heavy trucks is evolving from merely manufacturing to operational capabilities, with demand shifting from subsidy-driven to total cost of ownership (TCO) and organizational efficiency [13] Consumer Group - Huali Group reported a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%. However, net profit fell by 8.75% due to operational inefficiencies in new factories and fluctuations in orders from existing clients [15] - Despite the decline in net profit, operational efficiency indicators showed improvement, with a capacity utilization rate of 95.78% and inventory levels at their lowest in six quarters, reflecting strong downstream demand [15][16]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's intention to resign introduces new variables for the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with the market expecting the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% [1] - A survey of 50 economists indicates that all predict the interest rate will remain stable, while officials are assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on both domestic and international economies [1][4] - Over one-third of respondents anticipate a potential rate hike to 0.75% in October, depending on the stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Despite political instability, Bank of Japan officials believe a rate hike could still occur by the end of the year if economic data meets expectations, supported by strong GDP and inflation indicators [4] - The resignation of Ishiba increases political uncertainty, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lacking a majority in both houses of parliament, potentially delaying the rate hike if a new leader, such as Sanae Takaichi, is elected [7] - Historical coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government shows that policy disagreements can lead to conflicts, but concerns have eased since the large-scale easing in 2013 [7] Group 3 - The U.S. economic slowdown could pressure Japanese corporate profits and wage growth, disrupting the positive inflation cycle [7] - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts directly influences the yen's value, with rapid appreciation harming corporate profits and excessive depreciation raising import inflation [7] - The upcoming policy statement from the Bank of Japan is expected to remain largely unchanged, with Governor Ueda's press conference being a focal point for market reactions [7][8] Group 4 - A majority of observers believe that Ueda leans dovish when maintaining rates and hawkish when considering a rate hike, with an important speech scheduled for October 3 that may indicate future actions [8] - Nomura's chief strategist suggests that the next rate hike could occur as early as December, with January being the baseline scenario, as the urgency for action from the Bank of Japan has decreased [9]

Economic Outlook - The market is currently at all-time highs, with expectations of potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could indicate underlying economic weaknesses [1][6] - Positive economic data and a potential steepening of the yield curve could provide a favorable environment for growth, supporting further market gains [2][10] Market Positioning - Investors are advised to focus on interest rate-sensitive sectors, particularly mega-cap growth stocks, which are expected to continue outperforming due to their strong growth rates [4][5] - Small-cap stocks may face vulnerabilities, and a lack of positive earnings growth in value cyclical and small-cap sectors could lead to an unhealthy market environment [6][9] Consumer Dynamics - The current economic landscape is described as bifurcated, where stock market performance contrasts sharply with the experiences of lower-income individuals and recent graduates [8][10] - A healthy bull market is contingent on the performance of the lower-end consumer and younger demographics, which could contribute positively to earnings growth [10] Global Economic Factors - Optimistic trade news regarding China suggests that the worst may be behind for investors and companies, providing clarity for future planning and cost management [11][12] - The interplay of low dollar volatility, Fed rate cuts, and reduced geopolitical uncertainty is favorable for risk asset investments both domestically and internationally [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of abandoning personal predictions and biases in favor of strictly adhering to technical rules and trading systems in investment transactions [1] Economic Data and Market Performance - August economic data fell below expectations, leading to a slight decline in the stock market [6] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.79% and later dropped to 1.786% before rising to 1.8% [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated progress in technical details in discussions with China, which may influence market sentiment [6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 31.5 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and treasury cash deposits [4] - The funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.48% [5] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The bond market experienced volatility, with a notable sell-off towards the end of the trading day, attributed to concerns over "involution" and a loss of trust among investors [7] - The article draws a parallel between the bond market's current sentiment and a restaurant's brand image collapse, highlighting the fragility of investor confidence [7] Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The article provides detailed interest rates for various government bonds, indicating a range of yields from 1.3975% for 1-year bonds to 2.0940% for ultra-long bonds [10] - The yield on AAA-rated bonds shows a slight increase, with 1-year bonds at 1.6100% and 5-year bonds at 2.3300% [10]

Group 1: Summary of the Core View - The current economic readings are rather dull, with the overall production growth slowing down in August. The single - month economic data is prone to fluctuations, but the internal economic momentum continues to recover [4][5][7] - The contradiction in current asset pricing does not lie in the fundamentals. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation is the result of institutional re - allocation of stock and bond assets, and single - month data fluctuations will not change the current risk - preference environment or the expected direction of institutional asset re - allocation [6] - When dealing with the bond market, one should adopt a trading - based approach, focus on the opportunities of structural term spreads and variety spreads, as the bond market remains a "weak asset" and single - month economic data is unlikely to change the trend [9] Group 2: Industry Data Analysis Industrial Industry - In the upstream of the industrial industry, the production of non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and chemical raw material products has accelerated year - on - year. In the mid - and downstream equipment and consumer goods manufacturing, the output growth of the pharmaceutical and special equipment production has accelerated. The growth rate of industrial added value in other industries has declined compared with last month [4] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among the three major sectors, the production growth rate of the mining industry has rebounded, while the year - on - year growth rates of the manufacturing and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water have declined [7] Service Industry - The growth rate of service industry production has slowed down. In August, the service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The prosperity of producer services such as information technology, finance, and leasing is higher than the overall service industry [4] Investment - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has slowed down. In August, the completed amount of fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.15% year - on - year, 1.81 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments decreased by 19.5%, 6.4%, and 1.3% year - on - year respectively [8] - Real estate sales and investment continue to bottom out, with the decline in sales prices narrowing. In August, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14% and 10.6% year - on - year respectively. The real estate new construction area and completion area decreased by 20.3% and 21.4% year - on - year respectively [8] Consumption - In terms of consumption, catering consumption is recovering, while commodity consumption has slowed down, which may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment in some provinces. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month [8] - Among commodity consumption, the year - on - year growth rates of gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and communication equipment have changed significantly compared with last month. The sales volume of gold and silver jewelry may be related to the rapid rise in precious metal prices, while the slowdown of household appliances and communication equipment may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment after the "618" promotion [8] Group 3: Impact of Economic Data - After the release of economic data, bond yields first declined and then rose. The bond market has experienced an oversold rebound recently. After the release of economic data, the long - term bond yields rebounded, but then rose again [7] - Single - month economic data is affected by policy rhythm changes and structural transformation, and its fluctuations are unlikely to change the overall trend. Although the overall economic data in August is not outstanding, the internal economic momentum continues to recover [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - A-shares' major indices mostly closed higher, with the market entering the macro data verification phase during the performance and policy vacuum period. August economic data remained under pressure, with real estate significantly dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the trade - in policy pressuring social retail. However, previous financial data indicated a shift from excess savings to increased consumption, and the Fed's potential rate cut would provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, but poor economic data short - term pressures the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts Prices**: IF main contract (2509) was at 4527.8 (+2.0↑), IC main contract (2509) at 7114.2 (-38.2↓), IH main contract (2509) at 2962.4 (-7.4↓), IM main contract (2509) at 7368.6 (-32.2↓) [2] - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1565.4 (+10.8↑), IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2586.4 (-30.4↓) [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: IF current - season minus current - month was -30.8 (-4.6↓), IH current - season minus current - month was 0.2 (-0.6↓), IC current - season minus current - month was -174.8 (-23.6↓), IM current - season minus current - month was -225.4 (-6.2↓) [2] - **Futures Net Positions**: IF top 20 net positions were -28,938.00 (-1367.0↓), IH top 20 net positions were -18,383.00 (+136.0↑), IC top 20 net positions were -25,779.00 (+937.0↑), IM top 20 net positions were -47,196.00 (+58.0↑) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Underlying Index Prices**: CSI 300 was at 4533.06 (+11.1↑), SSE 50 was at 2962.6 (-5.9↓), CSI 500 was at 7137.4 (-10.4↓), CSI 1000 was at 7415.6 (-7.3↓) [2] - **Basis**: IF main contract basis was -5.3 (-6.5↓), IH main contract basis was -0.2 (-0.3↓), IC main contract basis was -23.2 (-15.4↓), IM main contract basis was -47.0 (-16.9↓) [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume (daily) was 23,031.80 billion yuan (-2451.32↓), margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 23,515.70 billion yuan (+111.45↑), north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 3112.83 billion yuan (-39.84↓) [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks (daily) was 35.28% (-0.22↓), Shibor (daily) was 1.408% (+0.041↑), IO at - the - money call option closing price (2509) was 29.00 (-3.00↓), IO at - the - money put option closing price (2509) was 51.20 (-5.40↓) [2] 3.4 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth of above - scale industrial added value was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous 5.7%); social consumer goods retail sales were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (expected 3.8%, previous 3.7%); from January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3% year - on - year; from January to August, real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - **Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined, and over 3300 stocks fell. Overseas, the US August PPI unexpectedly turned negative month - on - month, which supported the Fed's September rate cut [2] 3.5 Key Data to Watch - September 16, 20:30: US August import and export price indices, retail sales, and core retail sales - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest rate decision - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not solely determine market winners, but will heavily depend on the economic backdrop and the shape of the yield curve [1] - The current market has largely priced in expectations of a "soft landing" or a mild recovery, but historical patterns show that significant rate cuts typically occur during periods of economic weakness or recession [1] - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and improving economic data, sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and information technology are expected to perform well, while utilities are likely to underperform [1] Group 2 - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and deteriorating economic data, traditional defensive sectors like utilities, real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples are expected to perform better, while sectors like information technology and energy may struggle [2] - The traditional view suggests that the federal funds rate must reach a stimulative level for the market to shift from defensive to cyclical sectors [2] - Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement five consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each, accompanied by slow but positive economic growth, influencing investment strategies significantly [2]

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% due to signs of a cooling job market [3] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its current interest rate at 0.5%, with political changes reducing expectations for a rate hike in October [4] - The Bank of England is likely to keep its interest rate at 4%, despite rising inflation pressures complicating the outlook for further easing [5] - The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with a high probability of 90% based on recent economic data [6] Group 2: Economic Data Releases - The U.S. will release significant economic data including retail sales, industrial production, and initial jobless claims, which will provide insights into the health of the economy [3] - Japan will publish trade and inflation data, which are crucial for assessing the economic recovery [4] - The UK will report on unemployment, consumer price index (CPI), and retail sales, offering further insights into economic conditions [5] - Canada will release inflation and retail sales data, which will signal the strength of economic recovery [6] - The Eurozone will see the release of trade, industrial production, and core inflation data, alongside speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde [8] - China will announce key economic indicators including retail sales and fixed asset investment, which will impact perceptions of economic growth [9] - Australia and New Zealand will release employment and GDP data, which are critical for understanding their economic performance [10] Group 3: Market Implications - The convergence of central bank decisions and economic data releases is expected to create significant volatility in financial markets [11] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor central bank communications and economic data details to navigate market movements effectively [11]