美国10年期国债收益率微升至约4.23%，因投资者等待美联储决议和经济数据；市场（根据CME FedWatch工具）定价反映出年底前将有两次降息。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 美国10年期国债收益率微升至约4.23%，因投资者等待美联储决议和经济数据；市场（根据CME FedWatch工具）定价反映出年底前将有两次降息。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day OMO injection of 402 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in liquidity [1] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with a divergence between long-term and short-term bonds, as the market remained in a narrow fluctuation range [1] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was cautious, influenced by the stock market's volatility, leading to a general decline in bond prices [2] Group 2: Interest Rates and Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.45 basis points to 1.8295%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 1.35 basis points to 2.2555% [1] - The Shibor rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight Shibor declining to 1.3710%, down by 4.90 basis points, while the 1-month Shibor remained relatively stable [3] - The bond market saw a decrease in trading volume, with the total transaction scale dropping by 28.9 billion yuan to 207.8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: REITs Market Performance - The public REITs market showed a slight increase, with the index rising by 0.08% to 1045.72 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.55% for the year [4] - There was significant divergence within the REITs sector, with consumer and high-speed sectors leading gains, while industrial park and innovation sectors faced declines [4] - The total trading volume in the REITs market increased by 23.35% to 666 million yuan, indicating a neutral trading environment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range this week, affected by steel mill safety accidents. Macroscopically, the commodity market cooled down under the influence of Trump's policy risks, but geopolitical interference persisted. The domestic central bank released policy benefits, which may provide some support for prices. Fundamentally, the resumption of steel production was disrupted by safety accidents, which was a short - term positive for prices. However, there was no improvement in steel demand, and it remained in the seasonal off - season. Steel mill inventories accumulated, making it difficult to drive prices up. The subsequent demand performance still depends on export conditions. Overall, short - term supply disruptions are unlikely to improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [5][58]. - Iron ore prices fell from their highs this week, mainly due to the weakened expectation of hot metal production resumption caused by steel mill safety accidents. In terms of supply, iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased slightly this week, and subsequent safety inspections may continue to cause disruptions. Previously, the market expected steel mills to replenish their iron ore inventories before the Spring Festival when the inventory was low, so iron ore prices remained strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the logic of steel mill inventory replenishment may weaken, and high port inventories under pressure on demand may put pressure on the market again. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and may face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Trump's policies pose risks to the commodity market, and he threatened to retaliate strongly if European countries sell US assets due to Greenland - related tariff threats [5]. - **Key Data**: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. In January 2026, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, both remaining unchanged. In the third quarter of 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The US core PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range, affected by safety accidents. Macro factors and domestic policy benefits may support prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit upward potential. Iron ore prices fell from highs due to safety - related factors. Supply decreased, and demand was subject to safety inspections. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment logic may weaken, and high port inventories may lead to downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the continuation of domestic loose policies, production interference from accidents and maintenance, and cost support. Bearish factors are the off - season for steel demand, inventory accumulation in steel mills, and uncertainties regarding export licenses [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive macro sentiment, the continuation of domestic loose policies, and a decrease in shipments this week. Bearish factors are production interference from steel mill accidents, the impact of safety accidents on hot metal production resumption, high port inventories, and the weakening of the inventory replenishment logic [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: In December 2025, China's social消费品 retail sales grew by 0.9% year - on - year, lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. The GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, and the industrial added value in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, better than expected [10][12]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million. It is expected that the total automobile sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Since January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax has been halved [15]. - **Terminal - Engineering Machinery**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly. In December, the sales of various excavators were 23,095 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The annual cumulative sales reached 235,257 units, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth, with new orders accounting for 67.0% of the world market share [19]. - **Terminal - Steel Export**: In December 2025, steel exports increased significantly. The annual cumulative steel exports reached 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was due to the rush to export before the implementation of export licenses and year - end factors. In January, export plans have returned to normal levels, and export orders have declined [20][21]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [25]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the basis continued to narrow [26]. - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% this week [28]. - **Output**: The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates decreased. The five - type building material output was 8.1959 million tons, with thread output at 1.9955 million tons and hot - rolled coil output at 3.0541 million tons. Some short - process steel mills in Guangxi and Guangdong are on holiday, and production will resume after the Lantern Festival [30][34]. - **Table Demand**: The apparent demand for five - type building materials was 8.0952 million tons, with thread at 1.8552 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.0996 million tons. The winter storage enthusiasm in Shandong and Anhui decreased [37]. - **Inventory**: Thread inventory accumulated, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total inventory of five - type building materials was 12.5708 million tons, with thread at 4.521 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.5778 million tons [40]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [41]. - **Import and Shipment**: In December 2025, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment decreased by 2.511 million tons [45]. - **Shipment**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of major iron ore mines generally increased. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fenix Resources all reported growth in production and sales [46]. - **Arrival**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. The 47 - port arrival was 28.977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.173 million tons [47]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons this week, a slight increase [49]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased to 167.6653 million tons, and the daily average port clearance decreased to 3.1073 million tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased to 93.8882 million tons, the daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days [55]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Short - term supply disruptions cannot improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [60].

Group 1 - The US dollar index stabilized around 98.30 after a 0.5% decline, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming S&P Global PMI data release [1] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3%, indicating a relatively strong economic performance [3] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, lower than the market expectation of 212,000, suggesting a robust labor market [3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations and impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are as high as 95%, indicating a tendency towards easing despite positive economic growth data [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe, along with unclear terms of the US-NATO agreement, add complexity to the geopolitical landscape affecting the dollar [3][4] Group 3 - The potential actions from Europe regarding its substantial US asset holdings could introduce new uncertainties in global capital flows [4] - The stabilization of the dollar index may be temporary, constrained by high rate cut expectations and a complex geopolitical environment [4] - Future attention should be given to PMI data for economic validation and the actual evolution of US-EU relations, as the dollar faces both cyclical and structural challenges [4]

Geopolitical Analysis - U.S. President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement will grant the U.S. "all desired military access" [2] - Trump threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sell U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [2] Economic Data - U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth of 4.4%, up from the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2] - The core PCE price index, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.8% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, both in line with expectations [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, below the expected 210,000 [2] Futures Market Overview - On January 22, 2026, the main gold contract opened at 1,097.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,087.58 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous trading day [16] - The main silver contract opened at 23,037.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 23,339.00 CNY/kilogram, an increase of 0.90% from the previous trading day [16] Bond Market Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.241%, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year notes at 0.646% [17] Gold and Silver Holdings - As of January 22, 2026, gold ETF holdings were 1,077.66 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [19] Trading Strategies - Gold is viewed cautiously bullish, with expectations for prices to remain in a range of 1,090 CNY/gram to 1,170 CNY/gram [22] - Silver is also seen as cautiously bullish, with anticipated price fluctuations between 23,800 CNY/kilogram and 25,000 CNY/kilogram [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the economic fundamentals remain weak, but a rebound in inflation is a notable positive aspect [2] Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as continuing to show weakness, indicating potential challenges for growth [2] - The overall economic environment is characterized by sluggish performance, which may impact investment decisions [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - A significant rebound in inflation is noted, which could influence monetary policy and market expectations [2] - The article suggests that rising inflation may present both opportunities and challenges for investors [2]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.22%, the 10-year main contract down by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract down by 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract unchanged [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.35 basis points to 1.9675%, while the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.8420%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 2.3040% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [2] - On that day, 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed stable funding supply and prices, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) fluctuating slightly above 1.3% [2] Economic Fundamentals - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for 2025 is projected to be 14,018.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [3] - In Q4 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5%, matching the forecast, while Q3 growth was 4.8% [3] - Retail sales in December 2025 increased by 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.5% [3] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 2.4% [3] - Real estate development investment in 2025 was 82,788 million yuan, down 17.2% from the previous year, with new housing sales area and sales value declining by 8.7% and 12.6%, respectively [3] Operational Recommendations - The funding conditions have marginally eased, but a contraction is expected due to the tax period [4] - The recently released December economic data indicates a divergence between strong production and weak demand [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.85%, which is considered a reasonable pricing [4] - Future bond market trends will likely depend on policy strength and supply-demand conditions in Q1, with the 10-year bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple economic data from the US exceeded expectations last week, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, industrial production month-on-month, initial and continuing unemployment claims. Inflation data was generally in line with expectations, including CPI and PPI [2][4]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - In the US, several data points exceeded expectations, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production month-on-month. Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, was generally in line with expectations [4][14]. - In the Eurozone, industrial production month-on-month for November and the January Sentix investor confidence index exceeded expectations, while the final inflation values for France, Italy, and Germany in December met expectations [5][14]. - In Japan, the current account surplus exceeded expectations, and the PPI year-on-year was in line with expectations [5][14]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic data to watch includes the Japanese manufacturing PMI to be released on January 23 at 8:30 AM, the Bank of Japan's policy decision around noon to afternoon, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 5:00 PM, and the S&P US manufacturing PMI at 10:45 PM on January 23 [6][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.45% for the week ending January 10, compared to 2.08% the previous week [7][18]. - The German economic activity index showed a downward trend, with the WAI index at 0.03% for the week ending January 11, compared to -0.01% the previous week [8][18]. Group 4: Demand - In consumption, the US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate declined, with a reading of 5.7% for the week ending January 9, down from 7.1% the previous week [9][21]. - In real estate, US mortgage rates have decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.06% on January 15, down from 6.16% the previous week. Mortgage applications rebounded, with the MBA market composite index at 348 for the week ending January 9, reflecting a 28.5% increase week-on-week [9][24]. Group 5: Employment - Initial and continuing unemployment claims in the US decreased, with initial claims falling to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, down from 208,000 the previous week, and continuing claims dropping from 1.914 million to 1.884 million [10][28]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the INDEED job vacancy index averaging 105.34 as of January 9, slightly below the December average of 105.55 [11][29]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices showed a volatile recovery, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 0.2% week-on-week as of January 16, following a 1.2% increase the previous week. US gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.67 per gallon for the week ending January 12, down 0.6% week-on-week [12][31]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - US financial conditions have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index at 0.848 as of January 16, compared to 0.863 the previous week. In contrast, Eurozone financial conditions have tightened, with the index at 1.671 [38]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -15.4 pips, improving from -17 pips the previous week [40]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds has narrowed, with the J.P. Morgan global BB&B rated dollar corporate bond spread at 243 basis points as of January 16, down from 247.8 basis points the previous day [43]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of January 15, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US were approximately $319.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5% compared to $327.6 billion during the same period last year [50].