Group 1 - The market focus has shifted towards economic data and Federal Reserve policies after the U.S. government resumed favorable digestion, with hawkish comments from Fed officials reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December to below 50% [1] - Asian investors are awaiting the release of key economic indicators from China, including housing prices, retail sales, and unemployment rate data [1] - Major Asian stock markets are under pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index opening down 1.3% and quickly expanding its losses to 2%, led by a significant drop of 9% in SoftBank Group's stock [1] Group 2 - The South Korean Seoul Composite Index opened with a notable decline of 2.6%, indicating a significant increase in market risk aversion [3] - U.S. stock futures showed a slight recovery, with the S&P 500 index futures rebounding by 0.16% [3] Group 3 - In the foreign exchange market, the South Korean won experienced significant volatility, prompting the finance minister to express concerns about increasing uncertainty and readiness to take measures to stabilize the currency market [6] - The strong intervention signals from the South Korean government led to a rapid V-shaped recovery in the won's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, with an intraday increase of nearly 1% [6] - Following a sharp decline, cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery during the Asian trading session, with Bitcoin prices potentially testing $100,000 [6]

"随着政府重启数据发布，美国国债投资者正为更大波动做准备，"荷兰国际集团资深欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker在客户报告中表示。他补充道，鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储下一步行动，任何新的通 胀和就业数据都可能影响收益率曲线前端走势。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳莱维特周三表示，10月就业和消费者物价指数(CPI)报告大概率无法按时发布，这 让局势更趋复杂。停摆期间，美国国债陷入横盘整理，10年期国债收益率围绕4%关口波动。媒体美国 国债指数在此期间上涨0.4%，延续了2020年以来的最佳年度表现。 不过在政府重启前夕，交易员大举建仓目标为10年期收益率跌破4%的国债期权，押注数据潮将印证经 济走弱趋势。 "在12月利率决议前，唯有实体经济走向和联邦公开市场委员会政策倾向更趋明朗，收益率才能突破当 前窄幅震荡区间，"BMO Capital Markets美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen周三在报告中写道，"参差不齐的 私营数据让我们对就业市场下行风险的担忧尤为突出。" 周四，美国国债市场大体持稳，但波动率指标显示，随着美国走出史上持续时间最长的政府停摆，未来 数日可能会出现剧烈波动。 数据显示，美国10年期国债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rise due to optimism surrounding a potential agreement to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, with the S&P 500 index rising by 1.5% and the Nasdaq composite index increasing by 2.3%, marking the largest single-day percentage gain since mid-May [1] - Technology and communication services sectors saw substantial gains, with the information technology sector up by 2.7% and communication services up by 2.5% on the same day [1] - The reopening of the government is expected to reduce uncertainty in economic data and may pave the way for the Federal Reserve to implement its third interest rate cut of the year in December [1] Group 2 - Recent signs indicate that companies are adjusting their workforce sizes after a period of "labor hoarding" post-pandemic, which is viewed positively for corporate profits as long as large-scale layoffs do not occur [2] - Investors are preparing for a wave of delayed economic data releases, with concerns about the quality and interpretation of this data, particularly regarding potential widespread layoffs [3] Group 3 - Despite optimism from the government reopening, concerns about the high valuations of technology stocks remain, although recent sell-offs have made AI-related stocks more accessible to individual investors [4] - The market is beginning to recognize the high valuations of large tech companies, leading to a phase where AI stocks are expected to demonstrate tangible results from significant investments [5] - The overall sentiment for year-end market performance remains optimistic, contingent on the stability of the bond market and long-term interest rates [5]

周一，在市场对美国史上最长政府停摆有望结束的乐观情绪推动下，本周美国财政部会举行总额达1250 亿美元的三场国债拍卖，结果或成为未来几天股市走势的重要风向标。 LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师Lawrence Gillum指出，如果政府停摆本周得以结束，美国经济将 从"最坏情境路径"转向"相对正常化"阶段，尽管仍面临通胀压力与增长放缓。他预计，停摆期间积压的 各类经济数据将陆续发布，而非一次性集中公布。 Gillum警告称，若本周拍卖需求疲软，将可能推高长期利率并拖累股市表现，"若买家缺席，这些证券 收益率将上升，从而削弱股市动能。" 周一，纳斯达克指数领涨美股主要指数，同时美债收益率全面上升。1个月期国库券收益率跳升8个基点 至约3.96%。 芝加哥FHN Financial宏观策略师Will Compernolle表示，尽管参议院已迈出结束停摆的第一步，债市仍 处于"微妙时刻"。他指出，停摆导致经济数据缺失，使投资者对经济强度的判断差距不断扩大，"由于 连续两个月未发布就业报告，市场信心明显下降。" 他补充指出，本周的国债拍卖可能成为少数能引发市场波动的关键事件，"当缺乏其他可交易因素时， 这 ...

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US federal government shutdown has lasted 36 days as of November 5, marking the longest shutdown in US history, potentially reducing Q4 GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points[2][3] - The October ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, the highest in eight months[3][4] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000[3][4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has increased from 63% to 66.9%[4] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI is at 50, while Services PMI is at 53, indicating stable economic conditions[5][8] - Japan's nominal wages increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy[6][8] - Global stock markets have collectively declined, with US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 1.6% and 3.0% respectively[10][12] - Commodity prices, including oil and gold, have decreased, reflecting suppressed global risk appetite[10][17] Group 3: Risks and Predictions - Risks include potential unexpected impacts from Trump's policies, higher-than-expected stagflation in the US, and increased volatility in global financial markets[22] - The GDPNow model predicts a 4.0% annualized growth rate for Q3 2023 in the US[3][4]

Group 1 - The average purchase price of fresh milk in major production areas such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year [1] - The domestic market for whole milk powder is experiencing a decline in prices due to low demand, with major manufacturers facing slow sales and inventory issues [20] - The price of imported skim milk powder remains stable, supported by auction performance, while domestic skim milk powder is tentatively declining but overall supply is balanced [20] Group 2 - New Zealand's major manufacturers are facing pressure with lower-than-expected signing rates for whole milk powder, indicating potential supply challenges in the future [9] - The market for cream cheese is becoming saturated, leading to sporadic sell-offs as domestic production increases [20] - The demand for concentrated whey protein is strong, with New Zealand's signing rates high, suggesting limited short-term price reduction intentions [21] Group 3 - The average price of corn in China is 2.46 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in agricultural commodity prices [19] - The international dairy market is experiencing a downturn, with all dairy futures in the US showing declines, reflecting broader market challenges [12] - The recent ceasefire in Gaza and ongoing geopolitical tensions are impacting global oil prices, which may indirectly affect agricultural and dairy commodity markets [13]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite. The short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week; the CSRC Chairman proposed to establish a long - cycle assessment mechanism for long - term funds; a draft of guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks was released; the Dutch government expected Anshi China to resume chip supply soon [12]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In September 2025, industrial added value grew 6.5% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, retail sales grew 3.0%, and Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%. The October official manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than expected. M1 growth was 7.2%, M2 was 8.4%. Social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly higher than expected. Exports in September decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [12]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate declined this month, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity remained loose [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08% to 3997.56, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06, etc. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.24%, while the AH ratio decreased by 0.70%. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 declined [17]. - **Futures Market**: IF, IH, and IM contracts generally rose, while IC contracts generally fell. For example, IF当月 rose 0.57% to 4673.0, and IC当月 fell 0.30% to 7292.0 [18]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q3 2025 GDP growth was 4.8%. The October manufacturing PMI was 49.0. In September, consumption growth was 3.0%, exports decreased by 1.1%, and investment growth was - 0.5%. Manufacturing investment was 4.0%, real - estate investment was - 13.9%, and infrastructure investment was 1.1% [40][43][46]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, revenue growth was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. Net profit growth was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [49]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate declined [53]. - **Credit Environment**: In September 2025, M1 growth was 7.2%, M2 was 8.4%. Social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly higher than expected, mainly due to reduced government bonds and entity loans [65]. 3.5 Fund Flow - **Inflow**: In October, new equity - oriented fund shares were about 6 billion. This week, margin trading increased by about 6 billion, with a new balance of 248.0537 billion, a record high [72][75]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 522.3 million yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [78]. 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.98, CSI 300 was 14.33, CSI 500 was 33.46, and CSI 1000 was 47.81. - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.31, CSI 300 was 1.49, CSI 500 was 2.28, and CSI 1000 was 2.51 [83].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a calendar of key economic data releases for October, highlighting important indicators for both the US and China, which are crucial for investment analysis and decision-making [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The article lists significant economic data releases for October, including China's Manufacturing PMI, CPI/PPI, foreign exchange reserves, and M2/Social Financing [6]. - It also mentions the US's retail sales data for October, which is a critical indicator of consumer spending and economic health [6]. Group 2: Data Release Dates - The calendar outlines specific dates for the release of various economic indicators, allowing investors to track and analyze market trends effectively [6]. - Key dates include October 10 for China's industrial investment and social consumption data, and October 15 for the US retail sales figures [6].

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic data releases, including the third-quarter GDP, which was originally scheduled for this week [1] - The lack of federal data is causing policymakers, financial institutions, and businesses to make decisions without critical information, resulting in "blind decision-making" [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that in the first four weeks of the government shutdown, businesses contracted with the federal government have incurred losses of approximately $12 billion, with around 65,500 small businesses losing about $3 billion weekly [1]