Economic Overview - In May, China's economy showed overall stability with several indicators improving, indicating the growth of new economic drivers and a sustained high-quality development trend [1][2] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year in May, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [3] Consumption Trends - The growth in retail sales was significantly supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which led to substantial increases in sales of home appliances and communication equipment, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [5] - The "6·18" online shopping promotion, starting from May 13, further accelerated online retail sales, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [5][6] - Holiday consumption showed positive trends, with domestic tourism increasing by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, and restaurant income growing by 5.9% in May [6][7] Industrial Development - The new economic momentum is also reflected in the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the industrial sector, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.6% year-on-year [8][9] - Key industries such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with respective increases of 11.6% and 10.2% [8] - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries surged by 31.7% and 52.5%, respectively, indicating a strong shift towards green production [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that China's economy is showing overall stability with improving indicators, driven by new consumption momentum and a strong service sector growth [1][2]. Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year in May, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The urban unemployment rate in May was 5%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with youth unemployment continuing to decline for three consecutive months [4]. New Consumption Growth Points - The growth in retail sales was supported by several factors, including the "old-for-new" policy, which significantly boosted sales in categories like home appliances and communication devices, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [6]. - The "6·18" online shopping promotion, which started on May 13, also accelerated online retail sales, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May [7]. - Holiday consumption showed positive trends, with domestic tourism increasing by 6.4% during the "May Day" holiday, and restaurant income growing by 5.9% in May [7]. - New consumption momentum is evident in categories like sports and entertainment products, which saw retail sales growth of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively [7]. Industrial New Momentum - The industrial sector is experiencing growth in high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.6% year-on-year in May [10]. - Key industries such as automotive and electronics manufacturing saw significant growth, with automotive manufacturing increasing by 11.6% [10]. - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries grew by 31.7% and 52.5% respectively, indicating a shift towards greener production [10].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, reflecting increased market confidence and potential foreign investment inflows [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast by 0.3 percentage points, Nomura by 0.5 percentage points, Goldman Sachs by 0.6 percentage points, UBS by 0.6 percentage points, and JPMorgan by 0.7 percentage points [1] - The upward revisions are attributed to improved external trade conditions and the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - Since the second quarter, China's macroeconomic policies have demonstrated foresight, coherence, and effectiveness, contributing to stable economic performance [2] - Key economic indicators support the upward revisions, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 and a composite PMI output index of 50.4% in May, indicating expansion [2] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Structural improvements in domestic demand are crucial for the optimistic outlook, with retail sales growing by 5.1% year-on-year in April and significant sales driven by the consumption upgrade policy [3] - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.0% from January to April, with equipment investment rising by 18.2% [3] Group 4: New Economic Drivers - The acceleration of new economic drivers is a significant factor in the revised growth forecasts, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 10% in April [3] - Notable growth in sectors such as aerospace and integrated circuits, along with substantial increases in the production of new energy vehicles and charging stations, highlight the ongoing transformation [3] Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of stable macro policies, structural optimization of domestic demand, and strong new economic drivers forms a solid foundation for international capital's positive outlook on China [4] - The economy is undergoing a deep transformation, and while external uncertainties remain, the positive changes are expected to bolster confidence in addressing various risks [4]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous month and better than the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to +0.6%, up from +0.5% in the previous month[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -3.3%, compared to -2.7% previously, and was below the market expectation of -3.2%[2] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - Domestic prices remain low due to falling energy prices and weak domestic investment demand, but certain sectors like travel services and high-tech products are seeing price increases[3] - Food prices in May showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, which is better than the five-year average decline of -1.4%[5] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing nearly 70% to the total CPI decline[5] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain low growth rates, with potential downward pressure from the pig market due to policy adjustments leading to increased supply[3] - PPI's month-on-month decline is anticipated to narrow as international oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve[3] - The performance of core CPI and CPI may diverge, influenced by external factors such as oil prices and domestic consumption recovery[4]

Group 1 - The service industry is experiencing robust growth, stimulating new economic momentum [1] - The western region of China shows strong momentum for high-quality development [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises in China are seeing a recovery in production and operations [3] - Foreign enterprises continue to invest in China [4] Group 2 - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 32,853 billion USD [10] - By 2024, the water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP in China is expected to decrease by 4.4% year-on-year [11] - The minimum purchase price for wheat will be initiated in 2025 [12] - Two departments have allocated 580 million yuan for water conservancy disaster relief funds to ensure safety during flood season [13] - The reservoir group in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has cumulatively replenished 38 billion cubic meters of water this year [14]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

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