④ 【华纳据称本周将拒绝派拉蒙收购要约】12月16日，据媒体援引知情人士透露，华纳兄弟探索（简称华纳）计划拒绝派拉蒙天舞上周提出的收购要 约，主要原因是对派拉蒙天舞的融资安排和其他交易条款存在担忧。华纳董事会经过审议后认为，公司与奈飞的现有协议在价值、确定性和条款方面都优 于派拉蒙天舞的提案。截至发稿，奈飞上涨1.83%。 每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜段炼 兰素英 ① 【三大期指齐涨】截至发稿，道指期货涨0.19%、标普500指数期货涨0.30%、纳指期货涨0.34%。 ② 【纳斯达克将迎来年内全球最大IPO】美东时间12月17日晚，纳斯达克交易所将迎来全球今年最大IPO Medline，股票代码"MDLN"。该IPO发行规模经 上调后，最终定价锁定在推介区间高位。具体来看，该公司将以每股29美元发行2.16亿股股票，拟融资约62.6亿美元，定价对应的公司估值约为390亿美 元。Medline现有股东涵盖黑石集团、凯雷集团及弗里德曼（Hellman & Friedman）三大私募巨头。早在2021年，这三家机构就以340亿美元联合收购 Medline多数股权，成为史上规模最大的杠杆收购之一。Medline由米 ...

12名手握重权的委员中，9人投下了赞成票，支持将利率再下调0.25个百分点。 2人认为应该按兵不动，还有1人觉得力度太小，应该直接降50个基点。 这是 自2019年9月以来，反对票最多的一次议息会议。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的发布会上坦言，美国经济正面临挑战：通胀风险在向上走，而就业市场的风险 却在向下走。 美联储这次降息，被很多分析师称为"压力下的必然选择"。 压力来自两个方面：一个是冰冷的经济数据，另一个是来自白宫的热切目光。 从经济数据看，局面颇为棘手。 美联储最新的声明承认，美国经济活动在温和扩张，但新增就业已经放缓，9月份的失业率有所升高。 与此同时，通胀水平 虽然比年初高点有所回落，但依然"在一定程度上处于高位"。 用大白话讲，就是经济增速在放慢，工作不好找了，但物价却还没降到位。 美联储的两大核 心任务"促进充分就业"和"维持物价稳定"此刻像两根反向拉扯的绳子，让政策制定者左右为难。 让美联储头疼的是，他们这次开会时，手头的数据并不完整。 由于此前美国政府停摆，官方发布的9月份之后的就业和通胀数据缺失，他们只能依靠非官方 数据进行"蒙眼决策"，这无疑增加了误判的风险。 这场看似寻常的25个基点降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against extreme tariff pressures in 2025, contrary to previous trends, primarily due to a weakening US dollar, a recovering domestic economy, and easing trade conflicts [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Pressures and Yuan Performance - The yuan faced significant depreciation from 2018 to 2019 due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with the exchange rate dropping from 6.30 to below 7.30 [2][3]. - In 2025, the US imposed multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a peak of 145% tariffs on some products, while China retaliated with 125% tariffs [2][3]. Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Stability - Despite the tariff pressures in early 2025, the yuan remained stable, with slight appreciation observed in the first quarter, and a recovery in April after initial declines [4][5]. - By September 2025, the yuan had appreciated by 1.2% against the US dollar, with the onshore and offshore rates showing similar trends [4]. Internal and External Influences - The yuan's stability is attributed to several factors, including a significant retreat of Trump’s aggressive trade policies, a weakening US dollar, and a positive reassessment of Chinese assets by investors [5][6]. - The Chinese government’s proactive measures in response to tariff threats helped stabilize market expectations and support economic recovery [7]. US-China Trade Relations - Following intense tariff conflicts, the US and China entered a phase of trade negotiations in May 2025, which included agreements to reduce tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [8][9]. - Subsequent meetings in London and Stockholm further advanced trade discussions, improving market sentiment [8][9]. Currency Valuation and Market Dynamics - The yuan's exchange rate has remained stable despite the weakening of the US dollar and the appreciation of other currencies, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on the yuan [9][10]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed that the yuan is not significantly undervalued, with the current account surplus relative to GDP remaining within reasonable limits [12][13]. Future Outlook for the Yuan - In 2026, the yuan may benefit from several favorable factors, including potential US interest rate cuts, continued progress in US-China trade negotiations, and a recovering domestic economy [14][15]. - However, uncertainties remain, such as the resilience of the US economy and the potential for renewed tariff pressures, which could affect the yuan's performance [16].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized after the volatility caused by the "Trump shock," with indicators of dollar volatility returning to pre-election levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Stability - The volatility expectations for the dollar against the euro and yen have dropped to their lowest point in over a year, recovering some of the losses seen earlier this year [2]. - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, has also regained some ground, approaching levels seen before Trump's election victory [2]. - A series of tariff agreements among major U.S. trading partners has effectively reduced market volatility, while the U.S. economy has shown more resilience than expected under tariff pressures [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors and analysts have learned to coexist with Trump's policies, adopting a more cautious approach to news headlines [2]. - Some large fund managers believe that previous concerns about U.S. assets were overstated, viewing the dollar's decline as a correction within a bull market rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The significant drop in volatility expectations indicates that the market perceives the "Trump shock" as having ended, with easing trade tensions and a more stable fiscal policy [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Role in Portfolios - The dollar is regaining its traditional role as a stabilizer in investment portfolios, particularly during global pressures [5]. - Fund managers assert that the earlier situation in which the dollar fell alongside risk assets was an anomaly rather than a long-term trend [5]. - The demand for bullish dollar options has surged, indicating a strong belief in the dollar's potential to strengthen [4].

Core Insights - The U.S. market continues to attract global capital despite external challenges, with foreign investors net buying U.S. securities reaching a historic high of $311.1 billion in May 2025, significantly up from $14.2 billion in April [1][5][15] - Over the past 12 months, net foreign capital inflow approached $1.76 trillion, nearing the peak of $1.4 trillion observed in July 2023, indicating a strong reliance on U.S. markets [3][11][15] - The resilience of foreign investors mirrors that of U.S. consumers, showcasing a robust confidence in the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and market volatility [3][11][17] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by $332.1 billion, bringing the total stock to $5.71 trillion, primarily driven by the manufacturing and financial sectors [5][15] - Despite tariff policies causing initial market disruptions, net capital inflow remained strong, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities rebounding to $26.9 trillion by 2024, an increase of $2 trillion from June 2023 [5][11] - By June 2024, foreign holdings of U.S. securities reached $31.288 trillion, with equities accounting for $16.988 trillion, indicating continued confidence in U.S. assets [5][11] Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - The U.S. market's depth and liquidity make it an attractive destination for global investors, who are willing to endure volatility in exchange for stable returns [5][11][15] - Analysts suggest that the high threshold for capital flight from the U.S. indicates a strong foundational economy, with data showing that even amidst tariff threats, investors have not significantly divested from U.S. stocks and bonds [3][11][15] - The overall market resilience is reflected in the quick recovery of indices following initial declines due to tariff announcements, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a safe haven for investment [11][13][15] Expert Opinions - Experts like Robin Brooks argue that predictions of the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative are premature, as evidenced by the strong capital inflow data [3][11][17] - Concerns about brand damage due to trade wars have not deterred capital from flowing into the U.S., with many analysts affirming the enduring appeal of U.S. assets [7][11][17] - The consensus among experts is that the U.S. continues to provide a stable investment environment that is unmatched by other markets, solidifying its position as a primary destination for global capital [11][17]

Core Insights - The "Trump Shock" appears to have ended, with the market signaling a stabilization in the aftermath of Trump's return to the White House, despite recent political setbacks [1][2] - The dollar has regained strength, benefiting from its safe-haven status and inflows due to rising bond yields, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Tariff Impact - Tariff levels remain high, but the anticipated negative impact on the economy has not materialized as expected, with many countries opting for appeasement rather than retaliation [3][4] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching $30 billion in October from just $5 billion at the beginning of the year, alleviating deficit concerns and suggesting a degree of permanence to the tariffs [3][4] - Companies are finding ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with actual tariff rates fluctuating significantly, dropping from a peak of 27.4% to 15.9% [4][5] Artificial Intelligence Boom - The AI boom is helping to absorb the impacts of the "Trump Shock," attracting significant investment into the U.S. from global tech giants [6] - Major tech companies are ramping up capital expenditures, which is expected to stimulate economic growth and potentially lead to a GDP growth rate exceeding 5% by 2026 [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve - Inflation is gradually rising, currently at 3%, with tariffs contributing to price increases, particularly in imported goods [7][9] - The government’s push to maintain a robust economy and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could exacerbate inflation risks [7][10] - The market sentiment suggests that while inflation is a concern, the immediate impact of the "Trump Shock" on prices may not yet be fully realized [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with tech stocks leading the drop, while the A-share market showed resilience, indicating a shift in global capital flows and challenging the belief in the perpetual rise of U.S. stocks [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's late-night comments aimed to reassure the market about U.S.-China relations, but investors remained skeptical, leading to a drop in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [3][5] - Nvidia, a key player in the AI sector, saw its stock price fall by 4%, highlighting the vulnerability of the U.S. stock market, which has been heavily reliant on inflated AI valuations [3][8] - The current situation mirrors the pre-burst of the 2000 internet bubble, where excessive investment in virtual concepts has drained resources from the real economy [3][8] Group 2: A-share Market Resilience - Despite the turmoil in the U.S. market, the A-share market demonstrated a strong recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding after an initial drop, and the Chinese yuan also strengthening [5][10] - The shift in capital flows suggests that global investors are reassessing the risks associated with U.S. assets, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments [6][10] - Comparatively, the price-to-earnings ratio of Nvidia is 70, while China's leading company CATL stands at just over 20, indicating a more attractive valuation in the A-share market [8] Group 3: Global Capital Trends - The ongoing inversion of U.S. and Chinese bond yields, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at 4.5% compared to China's 2.8%, has led to increased international interest in Chinese bonds due to their perceived stability [8] - The total market capitalization of global equities reached $148 trillion last year, with the U.S. tech giants contributing over half of the gains, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [8][10] - The recent market movements challenge the notion of "American exceptionalism," suggesting that capital will always flow towards undervalued assets, such as those in the A-share market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock markets have outperformed the US stock market since Trump's election, contrary to initial investor expectations that his policies would negatively impact international equities [1][5]. Group 1: Performance of Global Markets - Since Trump's election, major stock indices in China, Europe, and Canada have outperformed the S&P 500 index [1]. - The MSCI index for global markets excluding the US has shown the largest outperformance against US stocks since 2009 [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea has surged by 55% over the past year, making it the best-performing index among major economies [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors initially injected funds into global markets to hedge against volatility caused by Trump's tariff policies, later seeking lower-valued alternatives to the high-valuation tech stocks dominating the S&P 500 [5]. - The weakening US dollar has made returns from international markets more attractive when measured in dollars [5]. - Some strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, had previously advised investors to look beyond the US market [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite strong corporate earnings, there are concerns about high valuations in the US stock market, with many executives predicting potential significant sell-offs in the near future [8][11]. - International markets still have lower valuations compared to US markets, which could allow for continued strong performance, particularly in Asian markets [12]. Group 4: Regional Economic Developments - European economic indicators are improving, with inflation under control and the European Central Bank lowering interest rates to 2%, which is significantly lower than US rates [12]. - Germany's stimulus plans are expected to accelerate growth in Europe, potentially narrowing the growth gap with the US [13]. - The Canadian stock market has seen a strong rise of 23% since Trump's election, with expectations of outperforming the US market for the first time since 2010 [14]. Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets have risen approximately 30% this year, with Brazil's stock market increasing by 44% in dollar terms, driven by expectations of declining global and local interest rates [18]. - Companies have quickly adapted to tariffs by relocating production, which has positively impacted their stock performance [18].

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over budget deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. government debt market has solidified its position as the most trusted sovereign debt asset globally, with significant inflows from investors driving a rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at $30 trillion, has seen investment returns of approximately 6% this year, heading towards its best performance since 2020 [2]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has surged despite previous bearish sentiments, attributed to controlled inflation under high interest rates and a shift towards short-term bonds by the Treasury [5][14]. - The "cleanest dirty shirt" analogy is used to describe the U.S. as a relatively better investment choice compared to other developed nations facing similar fiscal challenges [5][20]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have contributed to lower borrowing costs and increased returns on U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4% [6][25]. - Concerns about a potential recession due to trade wars have led to a flight to safety, with investors flocking to U.S. Treasuries [7][8]. - The U.S. Treasury's increased revenue from tariffs and a focus on reducing budget deficits have also played a role in the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased significantly compared to other G7 countries, where long-term borrowing costs have risen due to fiscal concerns [21][25]. - The U.S. remains the largest and most liquid fixed-income market globally, making it a preferred choice for foreign investors despite ongoing economic uncertainties [5][20][28]. - The overall environment in the U.S. market, while chaotic, still presents competitive opportunities for investors compared to other industrialized economies [20].

Core Insights - The current international market presents significant investment opportunities due to a notable discount compared to US markets and improving earnings growth expectations [5][6][7] Investment Diversification - The average US investor holds approximately 8-9% of their portfolio in non-US stocks, while academic research suggests a target allocation of around 30% [3][4] - The increasing concentration in US equities has led to a growing interest in diversifying into international markets [2] Market Performance - International markets are currently trading at a 32% discount to US markets, which is significantly higher than the long-term average discount of 14% [6] - Earnings growth expectations for international markets, such as MSCI Europe, have risen from 7.5% to 11.5% over the year, while US earnings growth expectations have decreased from 14% to 13% [7] Growth Drivers - The growth in international markets is attributed to improving fundamentals and corporate governance reforms, particularly in regions like Europe and Japan [10][13] - Germany is implementing major fiscal reforms to stimulate economic growth, indicating proactive government measures [11] Opportunities in Specific Markets - There are emerging high-quality investment opportunities in international markets that were previously overlooked, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [9] - Japan is experiencing improvements in corporate governance, which may enhance investment attractiveness, while Korea is also making strides in focusing on shareholder value [13][14]