Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in monetary policy has significant implications for both the U.S. and global economies, driven by rising inflation, a tight labor market, and the need to control economic growth [1][3]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The increase in interest rates will raise borrowing costs for both businesses and consumers, potentially leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [3]. - Higher financing costs may cause companies to delay expansion plans and reduce hiring, which could result in a slowdown in economic growth or even a short-term recession [3]. Global Financial Market Effects - The rise in U.S. interest rates is likely to lead to capital returning to the U.S., altering global capital flow dynamics and causing funding shortages in other economies, particularly emerging markets [3][5]. - Emerging economies, which rely on foreign capital for growth and currency stability, may face increased financial market volatility and currency depreciation pressures due to capital outflows [3][5]. Challenges for Emerging Markets - Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable, facing multiple challenges such as capital outflows, rising capital costs, and increased debt pressures [5][9]. - The depreciation of local currencies due to capital flight will raise import costs and exacerbate inflationary pressures in these countries [5][9]. - Many emerging markets depend on dollar-denominated financing, and the rising dollar will increase their debt repayment burdens, posing significant risks to their financial stability [9][10]. Stock Market Reactions - The Fed's interest rate hikes typically lead to volatility in global capital markets, with funds shifting from equities to fixed-income products, putting downward pressure on stock prices [7]. - Companies that rely on capital market financing may see their market valuations decline, which could limit their ability to raise further capital, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors like technology [7]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed's policy shift may prompt other central banks to adjust their monetary policies in response to the pressures of currency appreciation and capital outflows [7][10]. - Central banks in regions like Europe and Japan may adopt more accommodative policies to mitigate the negative impacts of a stronger dollar on their economies [7][10]. Opportunities Amidst Challenges - Some emerging markets with strong domestic demand and lower external debt may be better positioned to withstand external shocks and could attract more foreign investment as global market instability increases [10][11]. - Countries with robust fiscal and monetary policies may leverage their foreign exchange reserves to counteract capital outflow pressures and enhance domestic consumption [10][11].

Core Insights - The global economy is facing a triple challenge of "sticky inflation, policy swings, and geopolitical conflicts" which has led to a significant increase in gold prices, surpassing $3,132 per ounce in early April 2025, marking a rise of over 12% since the beginning of the year [1] - The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, concerns over trade system restructuring due to the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff policy," and a three-year trend of central banks increasing gold reserves have contributed to this milestone [1] Group 1: Reconstructed Hedging Logic - The financial market is reassessing the intrinsic value of precious metals, with gold gaining favor as a non-USD asset following the Fed's signal to pause interest rate hikes [3] - Silver has reached its highest price since 2012, driven by surging semiconductor demand and its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset [3] - Central banks globally added 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, reflecting a cautious attitude towards the USD credit system, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Visible Investment Pain Points - Ordinary investors face three main obstacles: compliance risks from platforms with unclear qualifications, delayed technical responses during market volatility, and high cost barriers due to traditional platforms' high spreads and minimum trading limits [4] - The average spread for traditional platforms exceeds $0.5 per ounce, with minimum trading limits around $100,000, which excludes small and medium investors [4] Group 3: Platform Value Analysis - Gold Rong China, holding AA class 084 member qualification from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers systematic solutions to address industry pain points [5] - The strict regulatory framework of the Hong Kong financial system ensures client funds are independently held by third-party banks, eliminating misuse risks, and each transaction is traceable [6] - The platform achieves millisecond-level order execution and optimized fund flow, with order delays controlled within 0.1 seconds and instant fund deposits [7] Group 4: Inclusive Services Lowering Participation Barriers - The platform offers lower spreads starting at $0.34 per ounce, saving over 30% compared to market averages [8] - It supports micro contracts of 0.01 lots, allowing small capital entry for investors [8] - Risk management tools such as "negative balance protection" and customizable stop-loss and take-profit features help secure profits [8] Group 5: Summary - The gold market is transitioning from "hedge-driven" to "value reassessment," influenced by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [9] - Investors should focus on the implications of Fed policy shifts and tariff policies while prioritizing platform selection based on compliance, technical performance, and cost structure [9]

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]

Group 1 - Emerging market assets experienced a broad rebound driven by improved market sentiment due to signals from the Federal Reserve and easing geopolitical tensions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising over 0.6% in a single day [1] - The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields weakened simultaneously, while emerging market stock indices recorded their largest single-day gain since April [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony hinted at a potential window for early rate cuts, aligning with dovish comments from other Fed officials, which reinforced market expectations for a third rate cut this year [1] Group 2 - Easing geopolitical risks, particularly a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., contributed to rising asset prices in developing countries, with the Israeli shekel soaring 1.7% to a new high since January 2023 [2] - The Mexican peso strengthened due to a decline in inflation data, while the Brazilian real fell against the dollar as the central bank remained cautious about inflation [2] - Eastern European markets showed varied trends, with Hungary's central bank maintaining rates for the ninth consecutive month and Slovenia issuing its first sustainable development-linked bond [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is improving, with a recent HSBC survey indicating that the proportion of fund managers bullish on emerging market assets reached a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - If the current risk appetite persists, emerging market stocks are expected to continue outperforming, driven by expectations of a shift in Fed policy and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and developments in the Middle East closely [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing intensified long-short battles after a week of fluctuations, with a clear divergence in expectations between Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold price trends for the upcoming week [1] - A recent survey of 16 Wall Street analysts shows that only 6 (approximately 38%) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, while 5 (31%) predict a potential decline, and another 5 (31%) anticipate a sideways market [1] - In contrast, an online survey of 258 retail investors reveals that 138 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week, indicating a more optimistic sentiment among retail investors [1] Group 2 - Citigroup and other institutions predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $3100 and $3500 in the short term, but long-term pressures may arise due to changes in Federal Reserve policy and economic conditions [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could challenge $3500 or even higher [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that historical data indicates that the geopolitical risk premium for gold typically peaks between the 8th and 20th trading days after a crisis, with an average increase of 5.5%, suggesting that the rapid decline in the current geopolitical risk premium may be a false signal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented complexities in 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with gold prices fluctuating around $3,400 per ounce and silver reaching a 13-year high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June has led to rising expectations for rate cuts later in the year, with a 77% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - A shift to a looser monetary policy would weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price [3] - Gold's anti-inflation properties are expected to become more pronounced if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.2% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold ETF inflows reaching their highest levels since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - Gold's role as a crisis hedge is being reinforced by these geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to adjust their strategies quickly in response to market changes [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The precious metals market is undergoing structural changes, with global silver demand projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027, driven by industrial applications like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4] - In contrast, silver supply is expected to grow only 1.2%, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [4] - Gold is supported by ongoing central bank purchases, particularly from China, which has increased its reserves to 73.7 million ounces as of March [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that if gold stabilizes above $3,450 per ounce, it could target $3,550 to $3,600, while silver faces resistance at $36.5 per ounce [5] - Market conditions, including crowding and profit-taking pressures, are critical factors to consider [5] - Daily reports from the company provide key reference points to help investors avoid common pitfalls in trading [5] Group 5: Company Differentiation - The company, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, emphasizes compliance and security through bank-level fund segregation and regular audits [6] - Technological capabilities include MT4/MT5 platforms that enable millisecond order execution with a slippage rate below 0.5%, achieving an average daily trading volume exceeding $10 billion [7] - The company offers in-depth research services, providing strategic recommendations based on key economic events and market conditions [8] Conclusion - The precious metals market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the second half of 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and supply-demand imbalances [9] - Investors are encouraged to choose platforms that combine regulatory compliance, technological strength, and professional research capabilities to navigate this complex environment [9]

当前黄金市场正处于多重因素交织的关键节点。截至6月18日，伦敦金现货价格稳定在3383美元/盎司附近，纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约报3401美元/ 盎司，延续了自6月初突破3360美元后的震荡上行态势。这一走势背后，既有"去美元化"进程的结构性支撑，也受到美联储政策转向预期与地缘风险升级的 短期驱动。 技术面与资金面信号显示突破前的蓄力特征。伦敦金现货在3250美元（2024年12月低点转化支撑）与3360美元（2025年5月高点）之间形成宽幅震荡区间， 若站稳3400美元心理关口，量度涨幅指向3450-3500美元。 全球央行购金潮持续为金价提供长期动能。2025年一季度全球央行黄金净购买量达244吨，中国连续7个月增持黄金储备至7383万盎司，黄金占外汇储备比例 升至20%，超越欧元成为第二大储备资产。 这种战略储备需求在"去美元化"背景下尤为显著，3250-3300美元区间形成密集买盘支撑，构成中期防御枢纽。与此同时，市场对美债到期风险的担忧有所 缓解，6月实际到期量约2.1万亿美元且以短期债券为主，叠加中美贸易摩擦缓和带来的出口抢运效应，流动性冲击风险整体可控。 美联储政策转向预期成为短期波动的核心 ...

今年来涨势如虹的黄金，或将迎来拐点。 据追风交易台消息，花旗分析师Maximilian Layton领衔的团队在其大宗商品展望报告中预计，黄金价格 将在未来几个季度滑落至3000美元/盎司以下，标志着这一创纪录涨势的终结。 报告明确指出，黄金价格已上涨至名义和实际水平，与黄金的边际成本脱钩，可能即将迎来"最后的辉 煌"。 花旗预计，金价将在今年三季度达到顶峰（3100-3500美元/盎司）后逐步回落，预计到2026年下半年， 金价将回落至2500-2700美元/盎司区间，较当前远期价格下跌约20-25%。 美国政策转向将终结避险需求，带动金价回落 报告共预设了三种金价走势的情景，在基准情景（概率60%）中，金价将在未来一个季度内维持在3000 美元/盎司上方，随后逐步回落。 看涨情景（概率20%）指，若关税担忧、地缘政治紧张和滞胀风险加剧，金价可能在第三季度再创新 高。看跌情景（同样概率20%）则意味着一旦关税问题迅速解决，金价将出现抛售式下跌。 短期看，黄金在三季度预计仍将维持较高价位，主要是受到投资需求的强劲支撑。 报告指出，黄金价格的上涨主要由对关税、美联储政策和地缘政治风险的担忧推动，而非央行购买行 ...