Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) experienced fluctuations, rising to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before retreating, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart, and reaching a new low of 3722 during the US session before recovering, with a total daily range of 398 points [3] - The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and geopolitical tensions, leading to a tug-of-war in gold prices [3] Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Gold - Resistance levels are identified at 3757-3760, while support levels are at 3722-3717; trading strategy suggests entering positions based on these levels—shorting at resistance with a stop loss at 3760 and a target of 70-100 points, and going long at support with a stop loss at 3717 and a target of 70-100 points [4] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 3748 yielding a profit of 100 points, and the strategy will continue to incorporate the M5 model for trading [4] Group 3: Euro Market Analysis - The Euro (EUR/USD) was negatively impacted by the deterioration of the German GfK consumer confidence index and US initial jobless claims data, resulting in a bearish daily close with a range of 108 points [6] - Weak European economic data combined with protectionist trade policy pressures are suppressing the Euro's performance [6] Group 4: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Euro - Resistance levels are set at 1.174/1.178, with support at 1.156/1.161; the trading strategy suggests shorting in the 1.171-1.170 range with a stop loss at 1.175 and a target of 30-50 points [8] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 1.1754 achieving the profit target, and the M5 model will be referenced for short-term trading [8] Group 5: Pound Market Analysis - The Pound (GBP/USD) faced pressure due to the UK CBI retail sales differential and fiscal deficit, closing bearish with a range of 145 points; the resilience of the US labor market has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, adding to the Pound's challenges [10] Group 6: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Pound - Resistance levels are identified at 1.342/1.347, with support at 1.323/1.327; the strategy suggests shorting in the 1.339-1.338 range with a stop loss at 1.345 and a target of 30-50 points [12] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 1.3467 achieving profitability, and the M5 model will continue to be utilized for trading [12] Group 7: GBP/JPY Market Analysis - The GBP/JPY pair saw fluctuations, rising to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before retreating, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart, with a daily range of 85 points [14] Group 8: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY - Resistance levels are set at 200.7/201.3, with support at 199.1/198.6; the strategy suggests shorting in the 199.9-200 range with a stop loss at 200.4 and a target of 40-60 points [15] - The H1 trend line shifted from red to yellow, with a previous long position at 199.7 yielding a profit of 70 points, and the focus will be on the green signal from the three-color line strategy combined with the M5 model for trading [16] Group 9: Upcoming Economic Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include Canada's July GDP, the US August core PCE price index, monthly personal spending, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with caution advised regarding data volatility risks [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting emphasized the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from Chairman Powell [1][2][3] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations of two more cuts within the year [2] - The statement highlighted the risks of employment downturn, removing previous language about a robust labor market and introducing concerns about slowing job growth [2] Economic Forecasts - The Fed improved GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 while slightly lowering unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 [2] - The dot plot indicated an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to three, with further divergence in future rate expectations among committee members [2] Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for significant cuts at this time and emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions [3] - He noted that while unemployment remains low, there are rising risks, attributing job growth slowdown to factors like reduced immigration and declining labor participation rates [3] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, reflecting market sensitivity to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts [4] - Market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, although expectations for 2026's rate cuts were pushed back [4] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The economy achieves a soft landing with no major recession, leading to two more cuts this year and three in 2025 [5] 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, prompting aggressive rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut [6] 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: Persistent high inflation forces the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [6] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most probable, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **gold market** and its price dynamics influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Trends**: After breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark at the end of August, market attention on gold has significantly increased, aligning with expectations that the price movements are driven by different factors in the first and second halves of the year [2][3]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The conclusion of the China-US Geneva Agreement in May reduced tariff uncertainties, leading to a decrease in the political risk premium that previously supported gold prices [2][4]. - **US Labor Market Data**: A downward revision of US labor market data has raised concerns about economic performance, which in turn supports gold prices as it increases expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The weakening of geopolitical pricing and a significant decline in global demand expectations have contributed to volatility in the commodity markets, including gold [3][4]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates without waiting for significant inflation decreases is a key factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of a terminal rate around 3% [8][9]. - **Inflation and Stagflation**: The current economic slowdown may support gold prices, with market concerns about stagflation, which typically benefits gold [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Debt Risks**: The resignation of Federal Reserve officials and increasing long-term debt risks have heightened market concerns about the independence of the Fed and the sustainability of developed countries' debt levels, contributing to rising gold prices [6][10]. - **Future Price Predictions**: For 2026, key factors to monitor include US labor data, global long-term debt risks, and geopolitical tensions, which will significantly impact gold prices [5][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: The upcoming US-China meetings may provide optimistic news, but the market has already priced in the easing of trade uncertainties, limiting the potential for significant gold price corrections [10][11]. Conclusion - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of economic data, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of continued price support in the near term due to anticipated rate cuts and economic conditions. Future price movements will depend heavily on the evolution of these factors.

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have drawn significant market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a trend towards convergence with the central parity rate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On August 28, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD broke through key levels of 7.15, 7.14, and 7.13, with the offshore rate (USDCNH) dipping below 7.12 [1]. - The central parity rate for USD to RMB on August 29 was reported at 7.1030, an increase of 33 basis points from the previous trading day, yet still 251 basis points lower than Bloomberg's forecast, indicating a signal for potential appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The narrowing gap between the central parity and actual trading rates suggests active management of exchange rate expectations, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [2]. - Following the break of 7.15 in USDCNY and USDCNH, the market anticipates a quicker convergence of the spot rate towards the central parity [2]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Strategies - The recent increase in RMB exchange rate volatility may affect "carry trade" strategies, which have been popular due to low volatility and a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points since May [2]. - The rise in volatility on August 28 may indicate a shift in the carry trade environment, posing potential risks for traders [2]. Group 4: Export and Investment Implications - While the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may attract foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, it could also impact exports [6]. - The RMB exchange rate index, such as the CFETS index, is more reflective of the export fundamentals, showing depreciation against a basket of currencies while appreciating against the USD, which helps mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [6]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Investor Considerations - The trajectory of the RMB exchange rate remains uncertain due to factors such as unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, delayed effects of China's easing policies, and fluctuations in non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors to make more informed investment decisions [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk premium is weakening due to the expected "Putin-Zelensky meeting", and there are still strong differences in the market regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will mainly fluctuate in the near future and wait for Powell's guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 750 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8][9]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still synchronized with that of gold, mainly based on the Fed's interest rate cut path on the macro - level, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply - demand fundamentals of silver. With the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and differences in the Fed's interest rate cut path, the silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8900 yuan/kilogram and 9400 yuan/kilogram [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, covering various products such as wind turbines and furniture [1]. - The White House is planning a possible meeting among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest, and geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly [1]. - Fed's Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of crypto - products, reflecting the US government's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.98 yuan/gram, closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 772.60 yuan/gram, down 0.32% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9263.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 272,701 lots, and the open interest was 342,500 lots. The night - session closed at 9061 yuan/kilogram, down 1.37% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 19, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.56%, down 0.8 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position and short - position changes were 0 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,718 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position changed by 2 lots, and the short - position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 411,181 lots, down 10.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 3.15 tons, down 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.34 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 710.76 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.36, up 0.44% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.91, up 1.19% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 21,362 kilograms, down 3.88% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 333,308 kilograms, up 22.46% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6506 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 10,140 kilograms [7].

Economic Data - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate of +3.0%, exceeding expectations of +2.4%[17] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[19] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[27] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.36% to 6238.01, while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.17% to 20650.13[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 17 basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield fell by 22 basis points to 3.69%[2] - The US dollar index rose by 1.04% to 98.6900, indicating a stronger dollar amidst economic uncertainty[2] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate increased to 4.25% in July, up from 4.11% in the previous month, while the U3 unemployment rate reflects a cooling labor market[29] - Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.7%[23] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[25] Policy and Trade - President Trump announced a new tariff list affecting nearly 70 countries, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures and trade negotiations with China[3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of weakening economic data and ongoing tariff implications, with a 80% probability of a rate cut in September following the weak non-farm payroll data[11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the impact of tariffs on inflation in the United States, particularly in relation to various industries and consumer behavior. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Rate Increase**: The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.5% at the beginning of 2025 to 8.8% by mid-year, with tariffs on imports from China increasing from 10% to nearly 40% [1][5] - **Impact on Different Industries**: The metal industry saw a 50% increase in tariffs, while small appliances, furniture, and toys experienced a 20% increase [1][5] - **Cost Burden Distribution**: Tariff costs are primarily borne by exporters, U.S. companies, and consumers, with historical data indicating that consumers ultimately shoulder most of the burden [1][3][11] - **Inflation Transmission**: As of June 2025, approximately 40% of tariff costs have been passed on to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the remaining 60% potentially absorbed by businesses [1][9][11] - **Correlation Between Actual and Theoretical Inflation**: There is a positive correlation between actual inflation and theoretical predictions, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.4 [1][9] - **Modeling Approach**: A comprehensive panel regression model was developed to track the impact of tariffs across 212 industries, allowing for detailed analysis of long-term effects on inflation [2][5] Additional Important Content - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Reserve Policy**: The CPI is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts in late 2025 [3][12] - **Differential Impact on Product Categories**: Certain product categories, such as small appliances and audio equipment, are experiencing significant inflation, while the automotive sector shows no notable price increases [10] - **Weak Dollar Effects**: A weaker dollar limits exporters' ability to absorb tariff costs, leading to increased pressure on importers [13][14] - **Future Economic Indicators**: The future path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data and the observed effects of tariffs on inflation [7][12] - **Monitoring Future Trends**: Continuous tracking of CPI data from July to September will help assess the transmission of tariff costs between businesses and consumers [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold is expected to oscillate in a strong manner within a range, and the medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade games in early August and the changes in interest rate cut expectations brought by the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting later in the month [1][3] - After silver was blocked at the $40 mark, it oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse. The medium-term view is bullish on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US PPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year (expected +2.5%, previous value revised from +2.6% to +2.7%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.3%). Core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year (expected +2.7%, previous value revised from +3.0% to +3.2%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.4%) [2] - US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, a general tariff would be used to impose a tax rate slightly higher than 10% on small countries. Larger economies are discussing coordinated tariff agreements, and negotiations with the EU, Vietnam and other countries are progressing smoothly [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent proposed to increase the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds to disperse the debt repayment pressure under the high-interest rate environment, but this strategy has caused market concerns about the long-term credibility of the Treasury and refinancing risks [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals oscillated during the day, and the short-term decline of the US dollar index at night drove the overall increase of precious metals. The US PPI data in June was slightly lower than expected, having little impact on sentiment [3] - The market's attention to the change of the Fed Chairman next year is increasing. In the second half of the year, besides the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut path, the emergence of a "shadow chairman" may reignite the market's concern about the Fed's independence [1][3] - Silver faced resistance at the $40 mark and then oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse, maintaining a bullish view on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June meeting at 2:00 AM, which may reveal the internal "hawk-dove" debate within the Fed [1] - The minutes could indicate whether a path for interest rate cuts has quietly taken shape [1] - Key signals regarding the direction for the second half of the year are expected to be unveiled, prompting investors to pay close attention [1]

Group 1: Zinc Price Trends - Zinc prices have been under pressure due to weakened market demand and easing supply constraints from zinc mines [1][2] - The fluctuation of U.S. tariff policies has led to a significant drop in zinc prices, reaching a near one-year low [1][3] - The macroeconomic factors influencing zinc prices include U.S. tariff policies and the potential slowdown of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations are expected to increase production, while domestic zinc mines experienced a seasonal reduction of 10.04% in Q1 [2] - Zinc concentrate port inventories are projected to remain above 300,000 tons, indicating a loose supply environment [2] - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are anticipated to rise due to increased ore supply, which will enhance smelting profits [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - The construction sector has shown weak performance, with cement and asphalt plant operating rates below expectations [3][4] - The automotive sector has exceeded market expectations, but overall demand for zinc remains weak due to trade policy uncertainties [3][4] - The domestic market's ability to support zinc prices is limited, particularly with export restrictions impacting effective demand [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The zinc market is expected to transition towards a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with a downward trend in zinc prices anticipated in the medium term [5]