Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the coke主力合约 was reported at 1,424.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.14%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. The policy may have limited direct impact on coke. It is recommended to adopt a shock approach and monitor coking coal production and policy dynamics [5][33]. - On July 8, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the recent futures increase is driven by news. It is expected that the coking coal主力合约 will remain volatile [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be transformed from primary fuels to high - value products. Wind, solar, and hydrogen energy should be developed to build a new energy system [8]. - On July 8, in an auction of coking coal by a major coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, the starting price of high - ash, low - sulfur fat coal was 760 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was 790 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the July 1 transaction price [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class Flat - Bed)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Outbound)| 1,210 yuan/ton | 3.42% | 4.31% | - 25.31% | - 39.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal)| 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.83% | 0.83% | - 18.12% | - 41.63% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced)| 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,424.5 | 0.14% | 1,437.0 | 1,410.0 | 16,389 | - 3,553 | 48,080 | - 18 | | Coking Coal | - | 843.5 | 0.84% | 849.5 | 829.0 | 723,095 | - 146,234 | 544,987 | - 4,404 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - For coke, the market is a mix of strong expectations and weak reality. The futures are in a low - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to approach it with a shock mindset and pay attention to coking coal production and policy [5][33]. - For coking coal, the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the futures increase is news - driven. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the coking coal主力合约 is expected to remain volatile [6][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is somewhat cautious, and the black - related products are oscillating weakly. Steel prices are affected by factors such as the off - season consumption, production changes, and market sentiment. Iron ore prices are influenced by global shipments and iron - water production. Double - coking products are in a state of multi - empty game, and power coal prices are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils were 3061 yuan/ton and 3191 yuan/ton respectively. The national urban inventory of building materials was 375.07 million tons, a 1.29% month - on - month increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 174.22 million tons, a 1.87% month - on - month increase. The national building materials transaction volume was 96,000 tons. Building materials are in the off - season, with a slight increase in production and low inventory. Plate production has a slight month - on - month increase, and the current export remains high. The market lacks speculative demand, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore weakened slightly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 731 yuan/ton, a 0.68% decline. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained stable. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total of 29.95 million tons. The daily transaction volume of national main ports decreased by 8.14% month - on - month, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 13.13% month - on - month. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Double - Coking Products - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures of double - coking products oscillated. The spot market of port coke was stable, and the domestic market sentiment improved. The inventory of the two ports increased slightly. The price of coking coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The expectation of domestic coal mine resumption is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The iron - water production of steel mills is at a high level but shows a downward trend. The supply - demand of coking coal has improved slightly. The profit of coke enterprises is not good, but the downstream steel demand has improved. In the short term, the supply - demand of coke has improved slightly, and in the long term, it is still in a relatively loose pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in unilateral trading, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of steam coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The procurement of chemical and platform large customers is stable, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. The supply has basically recovered at the beginning of the month, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The upstream shipping cost at the port has increased, and there is a structural shortage of goods. The downstream rigid demand procurement has been completed in stages, and the coal consumption is expected to increase with the expansion of high - temperature areas. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion with the domestic winning bid price, and the low - calorie Indonesian coal has obvious cost - performance advantages [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]

Report's Overall Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of silicon supply contraction is strengthening, and the price trend of new energy metals is becoming stronger. The central financial meeting has re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, enhancing investors' expectation of supply - side contraction in the silicon market, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - In the short - to - medium term, the strengthened expectation of supply - side contraction has led to a significant increase in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, which has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the elimination of domestic self - priced production capacity, but lithium carbonate still faces the problem of long - term over - supply if there is no substantial reduction in lithium ore production [2]. Summary by Catalog I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - As of July 7, the spot prices of industrial silicon have slightly rebounded. The price of oxygen - containing 553 in East China is 8750 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 9050 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - The central financial meeting and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the industry and the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [7]. - **Main Logic**: The sudden production cut of large northwest factories has supported prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve marginally; otherwise, the supply surplus pressure remains. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but with the price rebound, some silicon factories have resumed production. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [8]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental surplus pattern of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The price rebound is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the silicon price is expected to oscillate [8]. 2. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy is taking effect, and polysilicon prices are oscillating and rebounding. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2780 lots, unchanged from the previous value [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. The cumulative import from January to May was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72% [9]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [9]. - The central financial meeting emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition [10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain has been fluctuating. The polysilicon futures price has rebounded due to the policy. The production capacity in the southwest has increased with the arrival of the wet season, and the production in June - July is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The photovoltaic installed capacity has increased significantly from January to May, but it has over - drawn the demand for the second half of the year, and the downstream product prices have started to fall [10]. - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in the supply side. The polysilicon price is expected to show wide - range oscillation [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: A large number of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and the trend of lithium carbonate is strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillation [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On July 7, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.6% to 63,660 yuan. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 1661 lots to 591,177 lots [11]. - On July 7, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 250 yuan to 60,950 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 660 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 61,600 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5481 tons to 15,555 tons [11]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit [11]. - **Main Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market is fermenting, and smelters are under maintenance. The weekly production has slightly decreased, and domestic lithium ore production is increasing while imported lithium salts are expected to decline. The demand for cathode materials has been growing from January to June, and the demand in July is expected to be better than expected. The social inventory is still increasing, and the warehouse - receipt inventory has been decreasing [12]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains in surplus, but the reduction of warehouse receipts in the short term supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [12]. II. Market Monitoring - Not provided with specific content for summary

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate. The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has improved market sentiment, but the alloy manufacturers' inventory remains high and the steel demand is in the off-season [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week's Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspects**: The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasizes improving product quality and phasing out backward production capacity, which has greatly improved market sentiment. The China Iron and Steel Association advises enterprises to be rational about billet exports, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology addresses the disorderly low - price competition in the photovoltaic industry [6]. - **Overseas Aspects**: US President Trump doesn't consider extending the tariff grace period, and the US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up rare - earth exports. Trump has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, but the inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 0.9 tons, downstream hot - metal production is high, and coal price rebound supports the price. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 180 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspects**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - manganese main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment and fundamentals, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 589,600 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,683 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 44.0, up 10 week - on - week [12]. - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 88,686, a week - on - week decrease of 3,313. The September contract spread between silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was 284, down 16 week - on - week [16]. Spot Market - As of July 4, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was - 212 yuan/ton, down 36 week - on - week [23]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Industry - The operating rate of silicon - manganese manufacturers has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, with both supply and demand increasing week - on - week. The national operating rate was 40.34%, up 1.13% from last week. The daily average output was 25,730 tons, an increase of 125 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese was 126,789 tons, up 0.72% week - on - week, and the national silicon - manganese output was 180,110 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week [26]. - As of July 3, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 500 tons to 222,300 tons. Inner Mongolia's inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, Ningxia's increased by 5,000 tons, etc. [31] Upstream - As of July 3, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained unchanged week - on - week. As of June 30, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron production remained unchanged week - on - week [37]. - As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 0.9 tons to 422.4 tons. This week, 50.52 tons of South African manganese ore arrived in China, a 98% increase from last week and an 11% increase from the same period last year, and there was no arrival from other major shipping countries [43]. - On July 4, the northern region's silicon - manganese spot production cost was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The northern region's spot production profit was - 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was - 480 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [47]. Downstream - This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a decrease of 1.44 tons from last week but an increase of 1.53 tons from the same period last year. In June, HeSteel's silicon - manganese tender price was 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from May [50].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 焦煤市场周报 中央经济委反内卷，情绪回暖价格震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量188.0万吨，环比增3.0万吨。 2. 110家洗煤厂产量：日均产量50.15万吨减0.84万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1745.69万吨，环比增加4.5万吨，同比增加0.97%。 4. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损52元/吨。 5. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加14.72个百分点。 6. 需求端铁水产量：铁水高位窄幅运行。日均铁水产量 240.85万吨，环比上周减少1.44万吨，同比去年增加1.53万吨。。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调引导企业提升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-04 宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐⼭减排进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均不明显，铁⽔⼩ 幅回落同⽐维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 ⼼回升⾄4-5⽉区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运⾏。 ⿊⾊：宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐山减排进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均不明显，铁水小 幅回落同比维持高位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 心回升至4-5月区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运行。 1、铁元素方面，供应端压力较小，需求端钢企盈利率持稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sectors such as steel and photovoltaics is driven by a collective call to combat "involution" within industries, as highlighted by the Central Financial and Economic Committee's emphasis on orderly exit of backward production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Actions - Major domestic photovoltaic glass companies announced a collective production cut of 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution" competition within the industry [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has reiterated its commitment to guiding photovoltaic companies in the orderly exit of backward production capacity during a recent manufacturing enterprise symposium [4]. - The MIIT aims to enhance product quality and promote sustainable development in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the importance of industry self-discipline and corporate social responsibility [5]. Group 2: Market Performance - Since June 20, the Wind photovoltaic index has seen a nearly 10% increase, with significant daily gains, including a 2.53% rise on July 2 and continued upward movement on July 3, indicating strong performance among photovoltaic stocks [5]. - Several stocks within the photovoltaic sector have reached their daily limit up, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence [5]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - The root cause of "involution" in the photovoltaic industry is attributed to limited market growth space, making industry self-discipline crucial for navigating through economic cycles [6]. - Short-term self-discipline among industry leaders is expected to help control supply and stabilize prices, while long-term government guidance may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the steel industry in China, highlighting the expected decline in steel demand and net exports in 2025, while also emphasizing the potential for profit recovery if outdated production capacity is phased out [4][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Events - On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting focused on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality [4]. - A survey by Mysteel indicated that approximately half of the steel mills received notifications about a 30% production cut for sintering machines from July 4 to 15, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Demand and Export Forecast - Domestic steel demand in 2025 is projected to be around 850 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, equating to a reduction of 13 million tons compared to 2024 [5]. - The net export of steel is expected to decline to the levels of 2023, with a forecasted decrease of 2.1 million tons year-on-year, influenced by anti-dumping policies from South Korea and Vietnam, as well as increased tariffs from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Production and Profitability - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production was 432 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, with the largest reductions occurring in Hubei, Guangdong, and Hebei [6]. - The total profit of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the first five months of 2025 was 31.69 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [8]. - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry in the first half of 2025 was 281 yuan per ton, an increase of 52.45% year-on-year, indicating potential for further profit recovery if outdated production capacity is systematically eliminated [8]. Group 4: Historical Policy Impact - The article reviews past policies aimed at limiting steel production capacity, noting that the 2016 policy aimed to reduce excess capacity by 100 to 150 million tons, which led to significant price increases in the steel market [9]. - In the context of the "dual carbon" policy, the 2020 directive to compress crude steel production resulted in a 35% increase in steel prices from February to March 2021, despite a decline in the broader market [9]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - As of July 2, 2025, the price-to-book ratio (PB_LF) of the steel sector was 0.83, indicating a 23% upside potential compared to the average since 2013, with significant room for growth relative to peaks in 2017 and 2021 [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-03 供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐⼭减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均 不明显，铁⽔维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 ⿊⾊：供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐山减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均 不明显，铁水维持高位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 1、铁元素方面，小样本钢企铁水微降，短期无大幅下行驱动。到港 环比下降叠加需求高位，港口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, which led to a rebound in the domestic commodity market. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of steel, coke, and coking coal markets have few contradictions, and low inventories are used as a narrative. However, if no specific measures are implemented in the short term, the market may return to the old logic of dealing with the uncertainty of production cuts. After the short - term market sentiment reaction, investors should rationally view the price - increase logic, avoid chasing high prices, and can wait for callback opportunities after the policy - driven price reaches the target level [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 2, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures rose again. The coke 2509 contract reached a new high since May 20. The closing price of coke 2509 was 1442 yuan/ton, up 3.15%, with a trading volume of 30,166 lots and a position of 49,728 lots. The closing price of coking coal 2509 was 843.5 yuan/ton, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 1,189,983 lots and a position of 529,227 lots, a decrease of 35,195 lots. The capital inflow of coke 2509 was 0.58 billion yuan, and the capital outflow of coking coal 2509 was 1.60 billion yuan [5]. - **Spot Market**: On July 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Technical Indicators On July 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract changed from a dead - cross to a golden - cross. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values rising significantly, and the D value continuing to decline slightly, showing a trend of forming a golden - cross. The daily MACD red bars of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts became larger [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **Policy News**: On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, regulating enterprise competition, and promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The China Cement Association issued a document to promote the high - quality development of the cement industry [10][11]. - **Industry Operation**: From January to May 2025, the operation of major steel - using industries was polarized. The construction industry continued to decline, while the manufacturing industry showed differentiation. The production and export of some industries such as new energy vehicles and washing machines increased, while the production of some industries such as real estate and refrigerators decreased [11]. - **Enterprise Dynamics**: Shaanxi Coal Industry completed 121% of the investment plan from January to May. The Naoliu Highway in Xinjiang is undergoing expansion and reconstruction, and its freight capacity will reach over 40 million tons after completion. Jinmei Group successfully issued a 2 - billion - yuan science and technology innovation bond. This year, the number of LNG ship deliveries is expected to reach a record high. In the first half of 2025, the container throughput of Shanghai Yangshan Deep - Water Port increased by 7.3% year - on - year. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 7% in June. The main line of the Trans - Guinea Railway was fully paved, and the Simandou project is expected to be put into production at the end of 2025. Russia plans to maintain its coal exports to China at about 100 million tons in 2025. Turkey's coal imports in May increased by 2.66% year - on - year [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and start - up rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal with the September contracts [15][19][23][26][27][30].