货币政策调整

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美联储宣布降息25个基点 释放宽松信号应对经济下行风险
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 18:26
美联储的货币政策目标是实现充分就业和长期通胀率稳定在2%。声明指出,当前经济前景的不确定性 依然较高,委员会对实现其"双重使命"(dual mandate)目标所面临的风险保持高度关注。其中,就业 市场的下行风险被认为有所增加,成为此次政策调整的重要考量因素。 市场普遍将此次降息视为美联储对经济动能减弱的预防性举措。分析人士指出,尽管通胀仍高于目标, 但就业市场趋弱的迹象促使政策制定者优先防范增长风险。未来利率路径将高度依赖后续数据,特别是 非农就业报告和核心PCE通胀指标的走向。 为支持其经济目标并应对风险平衡的变化,美联储决定启动降息。声明强调,在考虑未来联邦基金利率 路径时,委员会将密切评估最新经济数据、前景演变及风险结构。同时,美联储将继续推进资产负债表 的缩减,即持续减少其持有的国债、机构债务及机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)。 (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经北京9月18日电(崔凯)美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)于当地时间9月17日宣布,将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点,由4.25%-4.50%调整至4.0%-4.25%。 美联储重申,其致力于实现并维持2%的长期通胀目标,并支持劳动力市场的充分 ...
36小时“议息风云”将至 多国央行“抢跑”降息
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-16 23:58
"超级央行周"来临。北京时间周四凌晨美联储公布利率决议后的约36小时之内,英国央行、日本央行也 将陆续公布利率决议。此外,本周还将迎来加拿大、印尼、挪威、巴西、南非等经济体央行的议息会 议。这场全球央行的"议息风云",将影响全球资金流向,全球金融市场对此高度关注。 36小时"议息风云" 一场利率决策风暴将席卷全球,本周,加拿大央行、美联储、英国央行、日本央行等将陆续公布利率决 议。 美联储的一举一动向来是全球金融市场关注的焦点,本次议息会议前的人事角力则让此次会议更显特 殊。当地时间9月15日,美国参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势,通过对斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事会成 员的提名,米兰预计将参与9月16日开始为期两天的美联储会议。与此同时,美联邦上诉法院阻止美国 总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克,让库克如愿坐稳决策桌。 在此情形下,这场本就备受瞩目的利率决议也可能横生变数。在上述变动发生前,市场已充分定价美联 储在本周重启降息,降息幅度大概率是25个基点,同时存在降息50个基点的可能性。随着库克和米兰确 定参与投票,他们的政策倾向也可能会影响原有的降息阵营。其中,米兰可能站队大幅降息阵营,支持 降息50个基点。 此 ...
36小时“议息风云”
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-16 18:32
一场利率决策风暴将席卷全球,本周,加拿大央行、美联储、英国央行、日本央行等将陆续公布利率决 议。 "超级央行周"来临。北京时间周四凌晨美联储公布利率决议后的约36小时之内,英国央行、日本央行也 将陆续公布利率决议。此外,本周还将迎来加拿大、印尼、挪威、巴西、南非等经济体央行的议息会 议。这场全球央行的"议息风云",将影响全球资金流向,全球金融市场对此高度关注。 36小时"议息风云" 美联储的一举一动向来是全球金融市场关注的焦点,本次议息会议前的人事角力则让此次会议更显特 殊。当地时间9月15日,美国参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势,通过对斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事会成 员的提名,米兰预计将参与9月16日开始为期两天的美联储会议。与此同时,美联邦上诉法院阻止美国 总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克,让库克如愿坐稳决策桌。 ◎记者 陈佳怡 多国央行"抢跑"降息 自2024年累计降息100个基点后,美联储一直维持按兵不动。市场已等待良久,若美联储降息"靴子落 地",这将是其货币政策方向的重要转变,也可能为全球"宽松潮"加码助力。 实际上,在美联储9月议息会议前夕,已有多国央行"抢跑"降息。例如,秘鲁央行日前宣布降息25个 ...
上证国际 | 36小时内三大央行齐登场 “超级央行周”掀起议息风云
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 12:25
Group 1 - The upcoming week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions within a short timeframe [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are particularly influential, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut of 25 basis points, and a possibility of a 50 basis points cut due to recent personnel changes within the Fed [2][3] - The Bank of Canada is also expected to follow suit with a rate cut, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its rate at 4% amidst a complex economic situation [3] Group 2 - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts, with the Central Bank of Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points, citing a decrease in inflation pressures [4] - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a significant cut of 250 basis points, lowering its rate to 40.5%, which exceeded market expectations [5] - The adjustments in monetary policy by various central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, but each country's economic conditions will dictate their specific policy paths [5]
布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司:穆迪赞迪称美经济处于“悬崖边缘”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 11:05
Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next twelve months has risen to 48%, indicating a concerningly high level of risk [1][5] Economic Indicators - Zandi highlights a significant decrease in U.S. residential building permits as a critical signal of impending economic recession, with current permit approvals nearing the lowest levels seen during the pandemic [1] - The ongoing weak demand from homebuyers and an increase in unsold homes have led builders to substantially reduce their development plans [1] Upcoming Data and Federal Reserve Actions - Zandi advises close attention to the upcoming August loan data to be released on September 17, coinciding with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated [3] - He suggests that this data may provide the Federal Reserve with additional justification for a rate cut, although he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures in preventing a recession [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Zandi has repeatedly warned of economic risks, stating that while the probability of recession has not exceeded 50%, the current risk level is historically high and warrants caution [5] - A combination of factors, including a slowdown in the real estate market, tightening credit conditions, and weakened consumer demand, poses a threat to a soft landing for the economy [5] - The effectiveness of potential monetary policy adjustments in countering the current downward pressures remains uncertain, with market participants and economists closely monitoring forthcoming data releases to assess the true trajectory of the U.S. economy [5]
【UNFX前瞻】市场聚焦下周全球央行关键决策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 14:14
预计美联储将降息25个基点,目标是到明年3月将利率从目前的4.5%上限降至3.25%。此外,零售销售 数据预计将因消费者信心低迷和汽车销售下滑而受阻,工业生产也可能再次萎缩,这些都印证了经济放 缓的趋势。 大西洋彼岸的英国,英格兰银行(BoE)在周四的会议上预计将维持利率不变。鉴于英国央行倾向于每 季度降息一次,且已在8月实施降息,本次会议降息的可能性微乎其微。然而,市场将密切关注其前瞻 性指引,以寻找进一步宽松的线索。就业市场是英国央行面临的一个不确定因素,尽管近期调查有所改 善,但秋季的就业数据仍是关键风险,尤其需要确认薪资增长是否正在放缓。 下周,全球金融市场的目光将再次聚焦于各国央行的利率决策会议,一场影响深远的货币政策调整浪潮 即将展开。美联储和加拿大央行预计将分别降息25个基点,而英国央行则可能选择按兵不动,但任何关 于未来宽松政策的暗示都将受到密切关注。 此外,多个国家重要的经济数据,如通胀、就业和工业产出报告,也将陆续发布,为市场提供判断未来 政策走向的关键线索。 在发达市场中,美国美联储的周三会议无疑是重中之重。尽管通胀依然高企,但美国的就业数据却持续 恶化,过去四个月就业增长有限,甚至有数 ...
欧洲央行维持利率2%不变,拉加德称通胀达预期水平
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 17:11
来源:暴走的大探 9月11日,欧洲央行行长拉加德,德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部:维持利率在 2%不变。道。 "我们继续处于良好状态。" 通胀率"达到了我们希望的水平",国内经济稳健,而且在美国达成一系列关税协议后,全球贸易的不确 定性有所缓解。 "但我们并没有走上预先确定的道路。" ====== 欧洲央行维持利率不变 ======= 既然讲了美国,再讲讲欧洲吧。 通胀也不光是美国。 ======= 预测还显示,核心通胀率预计为 1.8%,均低于欧洲央行 2% 的目标。 ——这个预测说明欧洲经济明年有风险呐~~~~衰退。 因为关税冲击嘛。 这不两大发动机,德国肯定衰退,法国债务危机吗。 欧元区8月CPI同比上涨2.1%,高于7月份的2.0%,符合经济学家预期。剔除能源和食品等波动性项目的 核心通胀率则稳定在2.3%。 ——温和通胀是2.0%,核心通胀率也是在2%左右最好,能实现充分就业。 所以欧元区其实已经完成"抗通胀"任务了。 所以拉加德说"达到了我们希望的水平"。 美国还没达到。 ====== 不过,"没有走上预先确定的道路",是说也没那么好。 最新预测显示,欧元区2027 年通胀率预计为 1.9%,低于 6 ...
土耳其央行将基准利率下调至40.5% 下降250个基点
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-11 13:17
大家好!一起来关注海外央行降息情况。 整体而言,土耳其央行此次降息力度超出市场预期。此前机构对20位分析师的调查显示,市场预期的中值为降息200个基点。 土耳其央行在声明中指出,近期数据显示,需求状况已处于"有利于通胀的水平"。第二季度经济增长超出预期,但最终国内需求仍保持疲软态势。食品价 格和具有"高惯性"的服务项目(如住房、教育等)继续对通胀构成上行压力。通胀预期、定价行为以及全球发展态势,仍对"去通胀进程"构成风险。 土耳其央行表示,在实现价格稳定之前,将维持紧缩的货币政策立场。委员会将根据通胀的实际表现、主要趋势和预期,以符合中期目标的方式,决定政 策利率的调整步骤。 土耳其央行称,调整的幅度将基于通胀前景,采取逐次会议评估、谨慎的方式进行。如果通胀前景明显偏离中期目标,货币政策立场将收紧。 如果信贷和存款市场出现预期之外的发展,土耳其央行将通过额外的宏观审慎措施来支持货币传导机制。委员会将制定政策决策,以创造能够使通胀在中 期内达到5%目标的货币和金融条件。 9月11日,土耳其央行货币政策委员会(MPC)宣布,将基准利率从43%下调至40.5%,下降250个基点;隔夜利率同步下降250个基点。 此前 ...
BBMarkets蓝莓市场:美国就业数据虚高?真实情况或远比想象疲软
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 06:42
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data has faced increasing scrutiny for systematic overestimation, leading to significant downward revisions that impact market perceptions and monetary policy decisions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data Issues - The BLS employment data often appears strong upon initial release but is frequently revised downward in subsequent months, raising concerns about the accuracy of the reported figures [1][3]. - Statistical biases, such as the "birth-death adjustment" model, contribute to the overestimation of employment figures, as it assumes a consistent influx of new businesses that may not reflect reality [1][3]. - Alternative data sources like the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Business Employment Dynamics (BED) provide more reliable employment figures, indicating that BLS has overestimated job growth by approximately 800,000 positions in 2023 [1][3]. Group 2: Market and Monetary Policy Implications - A significant downward revision of 818,000 jobs in August 2024 marked the largest adjustment in nearly a decade, influencing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points [3][4]. - The anticipated further downward revision of 550,000 jobs in September 2025 could lead to a more aggressive monetary policy response, potentially increasing the expected rate cut from 25 to 50 basis points [4][6]. - The ongoing adjustments to employment data highlight the need for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge economic slowdown, which may accelerate the pace of monetary easing [4][6]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The political implications of interest rate cuts are significant, especially in an election year, as they can temporarily boost stock markets and consumer confidence, benefiting the ruling party [6]. - The perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is challenged by the timing of monetary policy decisions in relation to employment data revisions, raising concerns about potential political influences [6]. - The persistent overestimation of employment data is not an isolated incident but reflects a structural bias in statistical methods, necessitating a more cautious approach from investors who should consider administrative data and market signals for economic assessments [6].
百利好丨美联储9月降息在即,市场预期已超85%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 09:02
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut in September, with futures markets indicating an over 85% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1][3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled the imminent start of a rate-cutting cycle, with notable support from Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams [3] - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted concerns over a weakening labor market, suggesting a need for policy adjustment despite ongoing inflation risks [3] Group 2 - The current U.S. administration has exerted significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with the President publicly criticizing rate policies [4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have emerged, with two board members appointed by the current President advocating for immediate rate cuts [4] - A recent personnel change at the Federal Reserve, with the dismissal of a sitting board member and the nomination of a rate-cut supporter, could further influence monetary policy direction [4] Group 3 - Economic data indicates a weakening labor market, with July non-farm payrolls dropping to 73,000 and labor force participation rate falling to 62.2%, prompting a shift in the Fed's policy stance [5] - Despite the labor market slowdown, inflation pressures remain, with July CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year and PPI increasing 3.3%, presenting a challenge for the Fed to balance between addressing unemployment and inflation risks [5]