基本内容 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议中转鸽来的毫无预兆，且一些言论与 7 月 FOMC 记者发布会的表态背道而驰。在对经济的回 顾与展望中，鲍威尔对于劳动力市场的观点产生了 180 度转变，开始极度担忧就业下行风险。 这种参考系的转变与 7 月不降息十分类似，很难用单纯的经济数据变化来解释，或许证明了特朗普对联储的政治高压 终于取得回报。 尽管联储对于 2025 年的降息预期一直保持在2 次（50bp），但这次如此清晰的鸽派信号，加强的不仅仅是9 月降息 25bp， 更是年内连续降息的可能。 我们想提醒的是，偏宽松的货币政策环境和偏鸽派的政策框架的副作用是不容忽视的；美国未来更难控制的通胀动态。 大幅降息后，一个再加速的美国经济必然面临着更高的通胀中枢；今年更"滞"，明年更"胀"。这也意味着美国对于 AI 科技大幅提升生产效率的的押注必须延续，某种程度上这是美国的国家意志。 风险提示 1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，下半年全球同步宽松幅度超预期，甚至带来全球共振扩表，明显缓解长端利率压力。3）技 术突破带来制造业回流加 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 08 月 23 日 颠覆 7 月，全面转鸽 再往后看，对等关税和 232 关税似乎都在服务同一个目的——在美国本地投资 建厂，无论现实落地难度多大，至少在中期选举之前会进一步渲染这一过程。 今明两年美国关税收入约在 3000 亿美元/年，可至少缓解 1 个百分点左右的财 政赤字率压力，不排除明年中期选举之前特朗普再度推出新的法案提振选情， 近期共和党内也出现越来越多这样的声音。因此，美股泡沫化过程或将持续至 明年底，调整仍是机会。 1）通胀：通胀仍有上行风险，但关税通胀的基准假设仍然是一次性的。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《关注基建支出的回补效应 ——7 月财政数据点评》2025- 08-20 2、《如何看 7 月经济数据？— —2025 年 7 月经济数据点评》 2025-08-15 —Jackson Hole 全球央行会议鲍威尔讲话点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席 Jackson Hole 全球 央行会议并发表讲话。 本次 Jackson Hole 会议鲍威尔一改 7 月议息会议鹰派表态"通胀风险权重高于 就 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，风险的平衡转变，可能需要调整政策。在我看来，美联储的政策利率具有适度 的限制性。从声明中删除（若干）长期目标。美联储一致通过新的政策框架，采用灵活的通胀目标制， 并取消了通胀"补偿"策略。从框架中删除有效的更低措辞。形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。劳 动力市场处于一个"不寻常的平衡"状态。劳动力供应已经趋软，（进而）与需求保持一致。就业市场稳 定性允许我们谨慎地推进（货币政策）。关税对价格的影响可能是暂时性的，这是一个合理的基本假 设。预计关税对价格的影响将在未来数月累积。不会允许一次性上涨成为一个持续性的问题。关税对消 费者价格的影响是显而易见的。我们不能认为稳定的通胀预期是理所当然的事。更长时间的通胀预期似 乎得到很好的锚定。 ...

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]

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钛媒体App 8月7日消息，美联储戴利表示，未来几个月可能需要调整政策。劳动力市场已经走软，进一 步放缓将不受欢迎。关税不太可能以一种需要货币政策予以对冲的方式持续推高通胀。需要重新校准货 币政策，以应对影响美联储目标的各种风险。不能等到完全明朗才采取行动。美联储还有很多工作要做 才能将通胀率降至2%。（广角观察） ...

2025.08. 07 本文字数：1859，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 随着上周公布的美国非农就业报告大幅不及预期后，市场对美联储降息的预期急剧升温。 本周以来，多位美联储官员在讲话中释放了宽松信号，周三美联储理事库克表达了对就业市场的担忧，显示出联邦公开市场委员会FOMC内部的风向 正在有所变化。利率市场定价显示，外界正在为年内降息75个基点积极定价。 美联储转向 美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）当天表示，上周五公布的7月份就业数据显示企业对招聘速度的放缓"令人担忧"。美国劳工部上周五的一份报告显示，7 月非农仅增加了73000个工作岗位，5-6月的数据被大规模修订，新增岗位骤降至3.3万个。 库克在波士顿联储举行的一次活动上发表讲话时称，上月非农报告出现的大幅修订在某种程度上是经济转折点的典型代表。这可能让她成为美联储理事 会中第三位赞成9月降息的代表。 在库克之前，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼表态赞成7月就下调利率。两人在上周五回应了为何在利率决议中投出反对票，认为美联储应放松货币政策，以避 免劳动力市场的潜在恶化。 第一财经记者汇总发现，与库克类似，在非农报告公布后，多位美联储官员暗示 ...

美联储理事库克称7月份的就业报告"令人担忧"，并表示这可能预示着美国经济的一个转折点。 周三，美联储理事库克在波士顿联储组织的讨论会上称，非农数据调整在某种程度上是转折点的典型表 现。这一表态加剧了市场对美联储可能调整货币政策的预期。 上周美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国劳动力市场在过去几个月急剧降温。根据劳工统计局数据，7月 新增就业仅7.3万个，低于预期，前两个月的就业增长数据下调近26万个。失业率从6月的4.1%上升至 4.2%。 我确实听到不确定性导致观望情绪，特别是在如何考虑定价决策方面，尤其是在经历高通胀 时期之后。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari同日早些时候表示，就业报告和其他经济放缓迹象表明，"近期"降 息可能是合适的。他补充说，仍预计美联储将在2025年底前降息两次。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 不确定性成企业负担 库克还指出，企业面临的持续不确定性如同税收负担，商业领袖花费大量时间管理不确定性。 波士顿联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted and will not hesitate to resume the interest rate hike cycle if necessary [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is open to modifying its monetary policy approach based on economic conditions [1] - There is a clear signal that the Central Bank is prepared to take decisive action to combat inflation if required [1] - The statement reflects the Central Bank's commitment to maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation [1]