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铝产业周报:氧化铝震荡偏弱,电解铝或高位回落,铝合金维持震荡运行-20250617
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term and short positions on rallies are recommended in the medium - to - long - term due to eased supply tightness of bauxite, weakened cost support, and limited demand growth [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with attention on the pressure at the 20,500 level, as production capacity remains high, demand has not significantly recovered, and social inventory is extremely low [8]. - ADC12 aluminum alloy is likely to be volatile in the short - term and short positions on rallies are suggested in the medium - to - long - term, considering the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, high inventory, and the impact of US tariff policies [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 View and Strategy - Alumina: The overall supply tightness of bauxite in China is gradually alleviated by imported ores, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. It is in a situation of strong supply and demand, but demand growth is limited, so it may be volatile and weak in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Production capacity is at an extremely high level, but total demand has not significantly recovered. Social inventory is decreasing and at a very low level. Affected by positive signals from China - US talks, the price once rose to 20,500. It may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of ADC12 is gradually forming, with high inventory and demand suppressed by US tariff policies. Only wheel hub export orders are good. The industry is in a loss state, providing some support for prices. It may be volatile in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. 3.2 Market Review - Due to positive signals from China - US talks, LME aluminum first rose and then fell, with a 2.1% increase compared to last week, and SHFE aluminum continued to rise, with a 1.84% increase. Alumina was weakly volatile, with a 1.69% decline [11][16]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite prices remained stable, with prices in Guizhou at 500 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 530 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 450 yuan/ton. Overseas, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite remained at $80/ton, and that of Australian bauxite fell to $69/ton. Inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 26.43 million tons, a 300,000 - ton increase [21]. - Alumina: Some regional prices fell slightly. The import profit and loss recovered to around 12 yuan/ton, and future imports will remain weak. Production cost decreased to 2,845 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to around 450 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate but remained at the lowest level in the past four years [26][31][36]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, and spot premiums and discounts in various regions fell significantly. Aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, reaching 141,000 tons. SHFE and LME inventories were at extremely low levels [44][49][52]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking of Aluminum Alloy - ADC12: Spot prices in various regions mainly rose to 19,600 yuan/ton. In May, domestic scrap aluminum shipments reached 59,010 tons, at a very high level in the past five years, and raw material supply was sufficient. From January to April, the cumulative import volume of aluminum scrap was 697,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.66% but a continuous slowdown in growth. In May, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 41.32%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 38.04%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots reached 513,500 tons, at a very high level in the past five years. The average cost of ADC12 in May fell to 19,537 yuan/ton, and production profit fell to 173 yuan/ton. Social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, with the former at a medium level and the latter at the highest level in the past three years [57][61][65]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250613
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行,铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨;安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日,10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%,同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行,冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期,通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息,压制美元,昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年,运行总产能 8901 万吨/年,周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓,周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨,较本周一下降 1.7 万吨,环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧,铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降,消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张,消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化,关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定,淡季价格有压力,库存去化支撑价格,短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]
低库存背景下铝价有望进一步走强
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-12 23:18
Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has led to a significant rise in Midwest U.S. aluminum premiums and a shift to a premium state for LME aluminum [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data for May shows inflation pressures are temporarily easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating that the new tariff policy has not yet had a significant impact on inflation [1] - China's bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports in April hit a record high of 20.684 million tons, up 25.62% month-on-month and 45.44% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Guinea's bauxite mining policies have tightened, particularly with the revocation of mining licenses in the Axis mining area, which produces about 40 million tons annually, raising market concerns [2] - Despite the Axis mining area being closed, projections suggest that China's bauxite imports will still meet domestic demand in 2025 [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in May was 3.729 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, with stable operating capacity due to sufficient raw material supply [2] Group 3 - As of June, the aluminum processing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in weekly operating rates to 60.9% [3] - Different segments within the aluminum industry are showing varied performance, with some areas like construction and photovoltaic materials seeing reduced operating rates, while others like 3C and power pipeline orders remain strong [3] - Global aluminum inventory has dropped to approximately 966,000 tons, a decrease of 1,006,000 tons year-on-year, indicating a significant destocking trend [3] Group 4 - The U.S. tariff policy has not yet significantly suppressed domestic inflation, and combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, these factors are providing support for aluminum prices [4] - Domestic bauxite production and imports have increased significantly in the first five months of the year, despite recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite policies, maintaining a loose supply situation [4] - The current global aluminum inventory is below 1 million tons, leading to market concerns and a shift to a premium state for both domestic and international aluminum [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:铝锭社会库存维持去库模式-20250610
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, there are no negative factors on the supply - side at home and abroad, consumption remains strong, and the high - demand reality is hard to change. The aluminum price is unlikely to fall due to low social inventory and the lack of a stocking trend. However, the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may face difficulties without unexpected positive stimuli. Also, beware of cost collapse risks and pay attention to social inventory changes and the US interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - For alumina, the spot market price has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has dropped. The supply is showing signs of recovery from both production and inventory. The cost of bauxite has short - term support, and the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,080 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on June 9, 2025, was 19,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,229 lots, an increase of 19,493 lots, and the holding volume was 181,672 lots, an increase of 214 lots [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,280 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 9, 2025, was 2,909 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.47%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 515,561 lots, a decrease of 180,818 lots, and the holding volume was 301,043 lots, an increase of 2,608 lots [2]. Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 362,000 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is stable, consumption is strong, and the inventory in June is expected to decline slightly. However, the sustainability of consumption is uncertain, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may be difficult without positive stimuli [3]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply is recovering. The bauxite price has short - term support, and the supply surplus expectation remains [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously Bearish [4]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in SHFE aluminum [4]
高盛:受印尼供应加速影响 铝价或跌至每吨2100美元
news flash· 2025-06-03 03:12
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that aluminum prices may drop to $2,100 per ton by early 2026 due to accelerated supply from Indonesia, which will lead to significant oversupply in the market [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The expected increase in production from three Indonesian smelters, each with a capacity of 500,000 tons, will result in a surplus of 1 million tons in 2026, marking the largest oversupply since 2020 [1] - The price forecast for aluminum in 2026 and 2027 has been revised down from $2,540 and $2,800 to $2,230 and $2,500 per ton, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in cost prices, weak alumina prices, and energy prices will exert downward pressure on aluminum prices in 2026 [1] - As the market rebalances, prices are expected to rise to a range of $2,150 to $2,550 per ton in the following years [1]
建信期货铝日报-20250523
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 02:21
行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:机构净持仓 图2:机构多空比 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 二、行业要闻 作为全球领先的铝生产商之一,阿联酋全球铝业公司 (Emirates Global Aluminium) 宣布计划在美国俄克拉荷马州投资 40 亿美元建设铝厂。唐纳 德·特朗普一直倡导富裕的海湾国家增加对美投资,以规避其关税政策。该 冶炼厂年产能预计达到 60 万吨原铝,建设将于 2026 年底动工,2030 年竣工 投产。EGA 还将与美国国防承包 ...
电解铝:需求存边际走弱预期但库存低位,铝价运行重心存下移风险
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 11:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].
旺季余温尚存库存继续去化 沪铝价格偏强震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-05 23:19
4月29日,国内三地铝锭库存量51.2万吨,环比减少1.6万吨,铝棒加工费区间震荡,库存延续下滑。 现货市场,4月28日现货铝锭报价20010-20030元/吨,成交均价较上周一上涨70元/吨至20020元/吨,现 货维持平水,现货近期随盘面上涨。 对于后市沪铝价格走势,机构观点汇总如下: 截至2025年4月30日当周,沪铝期货主力合约收于19910元/吨,周K线收阴,持仓量环比上周减持11415 手。 上周(4月28日-4月30日)市场上看,沪铝期货周内开盘报19950元/吨,最高触及20055元/吨,最低下探 至19860元/吨,周度下跌0.60%。 沪铝市场消息回顾 5月2日,伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝库存411575吨,减少2000吨。 五矿期货:旺季背景下去库延续支撑,铝价或偏强震荡 国内政治局会议表态并未超预期,叠加美国"对等关税"政策预计较为反复,短期情绪面难言乐观。产业 上看国内电解铝产能增长幅度有限,电解铝价格跟随需求和需求预期波动,当前旺季背景下去库延续对 铝价支撑偏强,但假期临近下游备货需求预计有所减弱,铝价或偏震荡。 新湖期货:去库持续但宏观仍存不确定性,铝价偏强震荡 当前消费尚有韧性 ...