Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [9] Group 2: Core Views - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Consumption shows good growth, and if the social inventory reduction goes smoothly, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6]. - Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists, and the alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the market activity has increased due to electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement, the spot price is difficult to rise, and the current price is undervalued [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On November 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was -10 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,555 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 211,680 lots, and the open interest was 256,161 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, a change of -75 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 552,575 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On November 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,790 yuan/ton, closed at 2,770 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton or -0.54% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,593 lots, and the open interest was 420,282 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On November 4, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. An accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Although the social inventory shows a mediocre performance during the peak consumption season, the aluminum water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth, and the real peak consumption season is expected from November to December. With the positive progress of Sino - US negotiations, there are still macro - positive factors, and the decline of aluminum prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the social inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists. The alumina spot price is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost of the ore end has decreased, but the alumina smelting loss has not improved. There is no large - scale production cut, and new production capacity is still expected. The current price is undervalued [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of RMB 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - Net profit reached RMB 19.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.13% [1] - In Q3, net profit was RMB 6.9 billion, showing an 18% year-on-year growth and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth is attributed to two main factors: 1. Margin expansion, with industry aluminum profit increasing by RMB 900 per ton and alumina profit rising by RMB 200 per ton in Q3 [1] 2. Contribution from the Wenshan project, which began contributing profits after the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Q2 [1] Industry Outlook - The Chinese aluminum industry is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid [1] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above RMB 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the RMB 2,800–2,900 per ton range, with aluminum profit margins exceeding RMB 5,000 per ton [1] - Spot aluminum profit margins are projected to further increase by RMB 600 per ton compared to Q3 [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised its aluminum price forecast for 2025 to RMB 20,600 per ton (+RMB 100 per ton) and for 2026 to RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - As a result, profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 have been increased by 5%-23%, with expected net profits of RMB 26 billion in 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and RMB 30 billion in 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining a "Buy" rating include: 1. Constructive outlook on aluminum prices [2] 2. Attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio assumption) [2] 3. The Ximangdu project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing approximately 3% to profits in 2026, with long-term potential to increase to 9% [2] 4. Ongoing share buybacks are expected to support the stock price [2] - The current target price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 forecasts, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic aluminum futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract reported at 21,290.00 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33% as of the report date [1] - During the period from October 20 to October 26, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 43,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Rio Tinto announced that its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is facing high electricity costs and has initiated discussions with employees regarding operational prospects, considering the possibility of ceasing operations after the current electricity supply contract expires [2] Group 2 - According to a Reuters survey, the average price of LME aluminum is expected to be $2,598 per ton in 2025 and $2,679 per ton in 2026, which is higher than the projected $2,418 per ton in 2024. The aluminum market is anticipated to have a surplus of 236,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Hongye Futures reported a slight improvement in domestic aluminum spot demand, with August aluminum exports around 520,000 tons, remaining stable, and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in China's aluminum production in August [3] - Zhongcai Futures noted that while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high with substantial profits, the approaching traditional off-season is leading to a divergence in downstream operating rates, resulting in an overall weakening. Domestic and international aluminum ingot inventories have slightly decreased, and concerns over market conditions are supported by the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic aluminum prices have been observed, with a significant rise followed by a pullback, influenced by macroeconomic factors and steady demand [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened significantly higher on Monday, reaching a new annual high during the trading session [1]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price peaked at 21,020 yuan/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - As of September 18, the spot A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.53% but a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% has positively impacted aluminum prices, with market expectations of three rate cuts this year [1]. - The recovery in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the plate, strip, and foil areas, has contributed to a positive outlook for aluminum prices [1]. - Despite a near 96% operating rate for domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and challenges in inventory reduction, the overall demand is showing signs of improvement, providing support for aluminum prices [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the demand for pre-holiday stockpiling will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate within the range of 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton next week [2].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is expected to experience a sideways fluctuation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently facing downward pressure [1] - The aluminum industry is experiencing regulatory measures to curb overcapacity, which may help mitigate the decline in aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Production Outlook - In the coming months, aluminum production may stagnate or even see a slight decrease [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend on September 11, with the main contract for aluminum futures rising by 0.63% to 20,915.00 CNY/ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a significant cooling in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of approximately 910,000 jobs for August non-farm data, leading to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August increased by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which is significantly below the anticipated 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises are expected to continue increasing production due to high profit margins, with 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity being profitable in August [1] - The consumption of aluminum is expected to improve marginally as the traditional demand season begins, although rising aluminum prices may suppress downstream procurement [1] - As of September 8, aluminum ingot social inventory was 631,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from September 4, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 5,500 tons [1] Group 3 - New Lake Futures predicts that supply will continue to increase slightly, with consumption expected to improve marginally, supporting a strong aluminum price outlook [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, aluminum prices showed a high - level oscillating trend. The spread of SHFE aluminum continued to narrow, and the spot market showed obvious regional differentiation, with the East China region relatively stronger. The LME market's Cash/3M shifted to a premium structure. - Fundamentally, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. Demand showed structural differentiation, the proportion of molten aluminum rebounded, and the production scheduling data of home appliances indicated a weak expectation for "Golden September". The production schedules of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased year - on - year. - Overall, aluminum prices oscillated between macro expectations and fundamental realities. The enhanced overseas interest - rate cut expectation provided support, but the continued domestic inventory accumulation and the weak improvement in terminal demand restricted the upward price space. This month, focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and the inventory trend. If the inventory shows an inflection point, aluminum prices are expected to rise further. The operating range of the main SHFE aluminum contract this month is expected to be 20,300 - 21,400 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME 3M aluminum is expected to be 2,540 - 2,720 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. The domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. The spot basis of aluminum ingots both at home and abroad strengthened during the month [12]. - Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In August, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports widened month - on - month [12]. - Demand: According to Aizhe Consulting's research, the weekly downstream operating rate rebounded at the end of August, but the operating rates of each sector varied. Most processing plants increased production, and there were signs of improvement in the demand side. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in September, consumption may continue to improve [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In August, SHFE aluminum oscillated at a high level, rising 250 yuan/ton during the month with the center of gravity shifting upward, and LME aluminum rose 2.11% [22]. - Term Spread: In August, the spread of SHFE aluminum continued to decline [27]. - Spot Basis: In August, the aluminum ingot spot in the East China region changed from a short - term premium to a discount, and the discounts in the South China and Central China regions widened [30]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In August, the East China spot strengthened relatively [33]. - LME Premium and Discount: In August, the LME market's Cash/3M changed from a discount to a premium [39]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: In August, the average smelting profit of primary aluminum was 4,284.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 104.5% [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 126.1%. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [47][53]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to accumulate [50]. - LME Inventory Structure: The proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing the proportion of Russian aluminum [57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In August, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite were stable [65]. - Alumina Price: In August, the domestic alumina price decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the import price decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In August, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased by 24 yuan/ton during the month [75]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: In August, the domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.3%. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. As downstream consumption enters the peak season, it is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will continue to rebound in September [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In August, the output of each province remained basically unchanged compared with July. The output in Shandong decreased by 18,700 tons, and the output in Yunnan increased by 28,000 tons [89]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In August, the output of Chinese aluminum rods was 1.5345 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, plate - strip - foil, primary aluminum - based alloy ingots, and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises was weak in the off - season in July. In August, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys decreased by 504 yuan/ton to 424 yuan/ton [95][104][108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in September 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 10.75 million units, a decrease of 12.0% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.21 million units, a decrease of 6.3% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 8.11 million units, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year. The demand expectation related to home appliances was still weak. Currently, the real - estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were acceptable, the photovoltaic installation decreased, and the related demand also faced pressure [112]. 7. Imports and Exports - Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, China imported 248,200 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month increase of 29.07% and a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.99%. In August, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports widened. In July, the aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc., with 190,834 tons from Russia, accounting for 77% [117][120]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [123]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The import volume in the first seven months was 1.173 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [123]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, with the imported ore accounting for 77.7%. The cumulative imported bauxite from January to July was 123.31 million tons. In July, China exported 229,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 34.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export from January to July was 1.57 million tons [126].