Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short-term gains and deal with the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work progress after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high-level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [5][12]. - It is expected that in early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish expectations, the lack of incremental holiday demand, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, attention should be paid to changes in U.S. bond sentiment, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines. It is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, with the start of restocking, peak-season demand, and tight supply, the market may operate strongly. During this period, the low level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high level around 25,500 - 26,500 [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, it needs to digest short-term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the focus will be on the resumption of work after the festival [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high and maintain an appropriate inventory [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: No specific content provided. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The supply of Guinea's bauxite is growing steadily, and the volume of goods shipped to China globally is increasing. The price of imported ore in February is expected to remain under pressure, and the imported ore market is gradually moving towards a state of oversupply [10]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry's supply surplus pattern continues. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading time before and after the festival is short. Coupled with the increasing scale of maintenance and production reduction in the alumina industry, the price of the alumina market in February is expected to remain stagnant [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, and the daily output is continuously increasing. It is expected that the production will continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to be very small [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,600 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the social inventory of aluminum was about 800,000 tons, up about 0.5% from last week and about 61% higher than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods was 245,000 tons, up about 11% from last week and about 110% higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 2%, about 16% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [10]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 7,900 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short - term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high - level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [12]. - **Our View**: In early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure. In the middle and late February, it is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, the market may operate strongly [12]. - **Key Concerns**: Fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the evolution of the U.S. - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite ores have been accelerating their decline since January. The prices of alumina spot continued to be under pressure for adjustment, while the futures prices rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new stage high this week but declined significantly at the end of the month due to macro and pre - holiday off - season factors [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite decreased slightly this week, but the arrival volume of Chinese bauxite in February is still expected to be significant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum and the inventory of aluminum rods continued to increase, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss and a theoretical profit for the futures main contract. The electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased slightly, and the profit has increased. The electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical import loss [18]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate this week was 59.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up rate of each aluminum processing sector will be generally under pressure in February [23]. Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The pattern of "off - season demand + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 1,830 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years, having a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall trend of more long positions and fewer short positions. Currently, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating profit positions are relatively heavy, prone to high - level repeated market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force increased slightly this week. The reduction of long positions by institutions was greater than that of short positions. The net long position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises first increased and then decreased. Overall, the main funds are relatively bearish on the short - term market [39].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a funding bill, increasing the likelihood of a partial government shutdown, which has put pressure on aluminum prices [1][2] - Overnight, London aluminum prices fell by 0.92%, closing at $3,234 per ton, while trading volume increased significantly [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a risk notice to curb speculation, leading to accelerated capital exit from high positions, further pressuring aluminum prices [2] Group 2 - The current fundamentals for Shanghai aluminum are weak, with a slight expected increase in electrolytic aluminum production and a seasonal decline in demand as the industry approaches a consumption lull [2] - Despite a recent increase in trading volume, most transactions are speculative rather than driven by actual demand, resulting in continued accumulation of social inventory [2] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential downward adjustment for aluminum prices, although current inventory levels are not high enough to create significant pressure [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 华泰期货有色组 相关品种：铸造铝合金、沪铝、氧化铝 铝板块盘面昨日全线上涨，沪铝主力合约2603开盘于24305元/吨，收盘于25640元/吨，涨幅5.75%；铝 合金主力合约2603开盘于23120元/吨，收盘于23785元/吨，涨幅3.35%；氧化铝主力合约2605开盘于 2741元/吨，收盘于2811元/吨，涨幅3.27%。 中东风云再起，伊朗锁喉霍尔木兹海峡，引发物流及供给担忧，据统计中东地区氧化铝年供应量450万 吨左右，电解铝年供应量700万吨左右。电解铝产量接近全球供应的10%，且铝产品主要以出口为主， 海峡关闭引发供给端的担忧。 此外达沃斯论坛后美元指数大幅度下挫，利多有色商品。 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改 ...

据追风交易台，高盛在1月27日的研报中调整了对铝价的预测，将2026年上半年目标价上调至3150美元/吨。报告认为，短期价格支撑主要来自全 球库存处于低位、印尼新增产能的电力供应存在不确定性，以及新能源领域的持续需求。 然而，高盛维持对铝价的中长期看空观点。报告指出，随着印尼、沙特阿拉伯等地的新建产能陆续投产，叠加全球宏观经济需求增长可能放缓， 铝市场预计将在2026年转向结构性过剩。基于此，该行预测铝价在2026年第四季度将回落至2500美元/吨，2027年均价进一步下探至2400美元/ 吨。 伦敦期铝周三延续强势，一度突破每吨3300美元，创2022年4月以来新高。自2025年9月中旬以来，伦敦期铝已从约2600美元累计上涨约27%。 铝价短期冲高：三大推手支撑涨幅 高盛报告指出，这一轮价格上行主要由以下三个因素共同推动： 首先，全球铝库存持续处于低位，库存覆盖天数已从2023年的约50天下降至2025年的46天，低库存结构直接支撑现货溢价，增强了市场的看涨预 期。其次，市场对印尼新建铝冶炼产能的电力供应能力存在疑虑，其实际投产进度可能不及预期，进一步强化了供应紧张的预期。最后，电动汽 车与电网建设等新能 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月28日，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近6%，集运欧线涨超4%，沥青涨近4%，铸造铝 合金、沪金、氧化铝涨超3%，沪银涨近3%，棉花、SC原油、沪锌、沪锡、低硫燃料油（LU）、燃油 涨超2%。跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌近4%，多晶硅跌超2%。 | 信号 | 合约各称 | 最新 | 现手 | 元例 | 英价 | 十六四六号 | 斯 | 英国 | 成灾量 | 滝ઇ | 持仓量 | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护铝2603 in | 25640 | 25 | 25635 | 25640 | 5.75% | 2 | ৰা | 937072 | 1395 | 362832 | 50935 | | | 2 集运的线2604 M | 1229.0 | 2 | 1228.3 | 1229.0 | 4.36% | T | 1 | 38983 | 51.4 | 40146 | T499 | | 3 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：金十期货 1． 近期供应动态：据SMM，1月22日报道，力拓集团将于2026年10月起将澳大利亚Yarwun氧化铝厂产 量削减40%（约减少120万吨/年），以延长运营寿命及进行现代化改造方案探索。 2． 产量数据：国家统计局数据显示，2025年12月中国电解铝产量387.4万吨，同比增长3.0%；Mysteel 调研数据显示，当月中国原铝日均产量12.35万吨，环比增加0.06万吨；国际铝业协会（IAI）数据显 示，当月全球原铝产量为629.6万吨。 3． 市场结构：据外媒报道，受冶炼厂关闭及欧盟碳关税影响，欧盟原铝产量降至95万吨，结构性缺口 高达93%。 4． 德意志银行观点：预计铝价有望在第二季度达到3100美元/吨的年内高点，全年均价约为2925美元/ 吨。 5． 银河期货观点：本周关注美联储决议。供应端某30万吨产能预计3月下旬复产，带动全球短缺收 窄。铝价受金融属性影响较大，需维持高利润刺激供应。 6． 南华期货观点：内蒙和新疆新增产能释放，叠加春节前消费边际走弱，本周累库逻辑未变。短期避 险情绪提振价格震荡偏强，长期供需缺 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease occurred this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories may accumulate as downstream enterprises take holidays [3]. - Market situation: Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support the aluminum price, and the market is currently showing a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. Alumina - Supply side: There were more alumina overhauls this week, and suppliers' sentiment to hold up prices increased. However, the overall alumina supply was still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors remained [4]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of slight growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina was okay this week, but the factory inventory continued to increase [4]. - Market situation: There are still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Categories 1. Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: Include data such as the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum closing price and position, A00 aluminum spot average price and premium - discount average, etc. [5][6][11][12] - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: Include the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures main contracts, alumina spot price in different regions, alumina price differences, and basis [16][17][19] 2. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: China's bauxite national monthly output, import volume, and port inventory have seasonal characteristics, and the monthly output varies by province [21][22] - **Alumina**: China's alumina monthly output, import volume, and national and provincial weekly operating rates are presented seasonally. There are also data on alumina import profit and loss [24][26][27][29] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly output, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly output, net import volume, and import profit and loss are shown seasonally [31][32][33][40] 3. Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Output**: The output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots has seasonal characteristics [41] - **Industry Operating Rates**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foils are presented seasonally [42][44][50] - **Export Data**: The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of aluminum products are shown seasonally [52][54] - **Related Industries**: Data on real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power - source project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) are provided [55][58][60][63][66] 4. Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: China's bauxite monthly inventory and inventory in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi have seasonal characteristics [67][69] - **Alumina Inventory**: Alumina enterprise factory inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume have seasonal patterns [70][71] - **Aluminum Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory have seasonal characteristics [71][72][73] 5. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Include domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, power coal prices, Dutch natural gas prices, and European electricity prices [75][76] - **Cost and Profit of Products**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are presented [75][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe once suppressed market sentiment, but then the sentiment eased. SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% this week, and LME aluminum rose 0.9%. Currently, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and high prices still suppress downstream demand. However, in the context of the off - season, this does not constitute a major negative for prices. There was concentrated delivery of LME aluminum, but the inventory remained at a relatively low level. Coupled with the high premium of US aluminum spot, the support for aluminum prices remains strong. Driven by the relatively loose policy environment at home and abroad and the continuous record - high of precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be 3,120 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,459.8 million tons, with a 1.9% year - on - year increase in production in December. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. The domestic molten aluminum ratio in December 2025 decreased by 0.8% month - on - month and is expected to decline further in January [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: According to MYSTEEL data, on Thursday this week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week increased by 0.7% to 60.9% compared with last week. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum cables and aluminum profiles rebounded month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloys, aluminum sheets and strips, and aluminum foils remained flat. In terms of demand, there is a seasonal recovery in food packaging foils and pharmaceutical foils before the Spring Festival, and orders from sub - sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, and batteries provide support. However, high aluminum prices continue to suppress the terminal's purchasing willingness, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% to 24,290 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's closing), and LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 3,173.5 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The contango of SHFE aluminum's first - to - third contract narrowed compared with last week [29] - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared with last week. The Central China spot was relatively strong. The LME aluminum Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [33][40][42] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared with last week and is at a historical high [52] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday this week was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [57][60][65][68] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained unchanged compared with last week [73] - **Alumina Price**: Domestic alumina prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week, and import prices decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained unchanged compared with last week, and the thermal coal price decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week [81] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the monthly alumina production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and an 8.7% year - on - year increase. The annual alumina production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. The production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,460.8 million tons. In December, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January 2026 is expected to be relatively stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the annual production increased by about 2.8% year - on - year [89] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: This week, the aluminum bar processing fee first increased and then decreased. In December 2025, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The casting volume of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 13.4% month - on - month and decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. This week, the molten aluminum ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92] - **Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased month - on - month compared with November [97] 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Production and Outbound Volume**: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year decrease. As of January 19, 2026, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 124,000 tons, an increase from last week [101] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and strips decreased month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 5 yuan/ton to 816 yuan/ton [107][110][113] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year, turning from a decline to an increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines is 8.1 million units, a 1.8% slight decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In December 2025, the real - estate data continued to be weak, and the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to improve [117] 7. Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots narrowed [122] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Sources**: In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [125] - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a 13.1% year - on - year increase [128] - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the proportion of imported ore at 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a 26.3% year - on - year increase. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a 42.7% year - on - year increase [131]

高价抑制需求，铝价冲高回落 铝周报 2026/01/17 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 原铝基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差（元/吨、美元/吨） 月产量（万吨） | 冶炼利润（元/吨） | 库存（万吨） | 需求 | 进口盈亏（元/吨） | | 数据 | 华东：-190（-95） 375 LME：+8.9（+0.6） | +8206.1 （-2.1） | 74.9（+3.1） | 铝材环节开工 率微升 | -2551.3（+316.1） | | 多空评分 | 0 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | | 简评 | 国内现货基差走弱， 国内电解铝开工 | 冶炼利润微减，仍 | 铝锭库存增加 | 消费改善还不 | 进口亏损 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report (January 12 - 16, 2026)" - Report Focus: Analysis of the electrolytic aluminum market, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, inventory changes, and market sentiment 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market will experience a moderately strong and high - level oscillation in January 2026. The price may rise first and then fall due to the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and strong macro - drivers. The expected price range for spot aluminum in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for price increases in the medium - term, and short - term long positions should exit and wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market will be moderately strong and may experience high - level oscillations in January. The price may rise first and then fall because the supply - demand situation is weakening while macro - drivers are strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Short - term long positions were advised to exit and wait and see, and medium - term long positions were recommended to be held - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [9] 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Bauxite Market - Guinea bauxite transportation cost to the port is 20 - 45 dollars/ton. The expected CIF average price in 2026 is 58 - 68 dollars/ton. Domestic ore supply may tighten further, and imported ore supply is expected to increase [10] 3.3.2 Alumina Market - As of January 9, domestic alumina's installed capacity is about 1.1255 billion tons, operating capacity is about 95.90 million tons, and the utilization rate is about 85.74%. Newly added domestic capacity in 2026 is about 14.40 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Overseas newly added capacity may be limited. In January, alumina production cuts may increase [10] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December, domestic installed capacity was about 46.19 million tons, operating capacity was about 44.69 million tons, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. In 2026, global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear [10] 3.3.4 Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,300 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The EU's CBAM implementation may increase export costs in the short term [10] 3.3.5 Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 718,000 tons, up about 13% from last week and about 62% from the same period last year. Aluminum rod inventory is 174,900 tons, up about 25% from last week and about 30% from the same period last year. LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly [11] 3.3.6 Profitability - The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,720 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit is about - 40 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit is about 100 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.7 Market Expectation - The market will experience high - level oscillations due to the game between macro - factors and fundamentals. The price may rise first and then fall in January. The expected price range for spot aluminum is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices continue to decline. Coal prices rebound from the low level and may continue to oscillate. Alumina spot prices remain stable, and the market is pessimistic overall [12] 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite port inventory decreases, alumina inventory increases. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase, while LME aluminum inventory decreases [13][14][16] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation 3.6.1 Profitability of Domestic Aluminum Industry Links - Alumina has a theoretical spot loss of about 30 yuan/ton and a futures main - contract profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import profit is about - 50 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum has a production cost of about 16,800 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 7,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss is about 2,300 yuan/ton [19] 3.6.2 Downstream开工概况 - The weekly开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and开工 rate. It is expected that the开工 rate will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [25][26] 3.7 Shanghai Aluminum Futures Price Curve - The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango structure. The market is characterized by "increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high - price suppression of consumption". The price is mainly macro - oriented, and the spot market has a drag effect [29] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,450 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a drag effect on electrolytic aluminum [34][35] 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest fund net long position continues to increase slightly. Overseas funds are dominated by bulls, but there may be high - level fluctuations due to heavy floating - profit positions [37] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main - force net short position increases. Institutional speculative net short positions increase, while industrial - client net long positions increase significantly. Main - force funds are cautious about the recent price increase [40]