Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is approaching a critical policy window as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut due to a weak U.S. labor market [1][3]. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has already implemented two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%—4.00% [1][3]. - Market expectations for a third rate cut are high, with a nearly 90% probability predicted by the CME FedWatch Tool [3][4]. - The concept of "hawkish rate cuts" suggests that while the Fed will lower rates, it will signal a higher threshold for future cuts to prevent excessive market optimism [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a surprising decrease of 32,000 in U.S. private sector employment for November, the largest drop since March 2023, indicating structural weakness in the labor market [4]. - Inflation pressures are easing, with the core PCE price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year in September, suggesting manageable production-side inflation [4]. Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to alleviate monetary policy pressures on major global economies, providing China with more room for monetary policy adjustments [6][7]. - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential could support a stronger RMB, allowing for potential policy rate reductions in China to lower financing costs for the real economy [7][8]. Market Reactions - The anticipated Fed rate cuts are likely to influence global equity, currency, and bond markets, with the dollar index expected to weaken, benefiting non-U.S. currencies [9][11]. - The Chinese stock market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.50 points, reflecting a slight decline [10]. - Bond markets are experiencing varied impacts, with domestic bond yields influenced by both Fed policies and internal supply pressures [11].

Group 1 - The market widely expects Kevin Hassett to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, but only 11% believe he should be appointed [1] - Christopher Waller is the preferred candidate with 47% support, followed by Kevin Warsh at 23%, yet only 5% think Trump will nominate either [1] - Concerns about Hassett focus on his commitment to the Fed's dual mandate and independence, with 76% believing the next chair will be more dovish than Jerome Powell [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide on whether the Fed should cut rates, with 87% expecting a rate cut but only 45% believing it should happen [3] - Economic growth expectations are rising, with GDP growth projected at 2% this year and slightly higher next year, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [5] - "Persistent high inflation" has become the top economic risk, with concerns about the potential stimulus effects of record tax refunds in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Despite concerns about a potential AI bubble, respondents predict a 6% increase in the S&P 500 next year and another 6% in 2027, with 90% believing AI stocks are overvalued [8] - Systemic risk in the U.S. credit market is perceived to have slightly increased, rising from 53% to 60% [8]

24年 - 25年10月降息周期: 美联储采取预防性降息策略，避免经济硬着陆，将利率从5.0%降至4.0%。期间恒生 港股通高股息低波动指数上涨52.10%，上涨幅度明显。这种差异不仅存在于港股，美国高股息指数同样呈现 分化：预防性降息周期中，标普美国股息增长指数上涨11.60%；而2020年危机性降息中则下跌18.56%, 略好于 同期S&P500指数的表现(收跌19.9%)。 图表：港美股红利指数与宽基全收益指数在降息周期的表现对比 数据来自Wind，截止至2025/11/10 二、历史规律：降息属性决定红利表现 近几天，美联储12月降息预期大幅攀升至89%左右，这一转变令全球市场为之振奋。纳斯达克, 标普500与港 股市场本周也应声上涨。然而，值得注意的是，作为"避风港"的红利资产表现更为稳健——恒生港股通高股 息低波动指数在过去一个月也录得5%的涨幅，展现出降息周期中独特的配置价值。在市场情绪高涨之际，投 资者不禁要问：美联储降息是否必然带来港股红利资产的普涨行情？历史数据会给出的答案。 一、红利资产对降息的差异化反应 通过对过去几轮美联储降息周期的分析，我们发现港股高股息资产的表现与其说是取决于"是 ...

宏观点评报告 陷入"决策僵局"中的美联储 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 核心结论 从降息预期的节奏来看，市场除了定价了 2025 年 12 月降息之外，2026 年 仍需降息 2 次左右。数据显示，2025 年 12 月降息 25 个 bp 的概率高达 87%， 2026 年 4 月和 7 月各降息 25 个 bp 的概率分别为 41%和 32.4%。 从近期来看，非农和通胀数据的缺失，使得基本面处于难以准确估量。首先， 就业的不同数据打架，劳动力市场真实情况被掩盖。根据 ADP 公布的数据， 11 月私营部门就业人数减少 3.2 万，低于经济学家预估中值的增加 1 万，证 明裁员力度加大。但是截至 11 月 28 日当周，初请失业金人数减少 2.7 万， 至 19.1 万人。另外，11 月 21 日当周持续领取失业金人数也有所降低至 193.9 万人。首申数据的回落表明，在经历政府停摆与政策不确定性后，企业更倾 向于通过"冻结招聘"而非直接裁员来控制成本。与此同时，续请人数持续 盘踞高位，印证了市场吸纳能力的疲软，失业者再就业周期被拉长。其次， 从价格来看，出口商、进口商与消费者围绕关税成 ...

美联储将于下周公布议息结果，安联环球投资公募市场首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger称，美联储内 部严重分歧下结果难料，预期将降息25个基点，但投票结果或将显示立场不一。虽然前景不明，但从美 联储近期声明、宏观数据及市场定价来看，降息25个基点可能性仍偏高。目前市场对12月降息的预期概 率接近9成，若届时选择按兵不动，将属重大意外，或引发市场波动，甚至触发资产价格短期回调。 《褐皮书》指劳工需求放缓，消费表现亦见参差。展望未来，在经济不陷入衰退的基本情境假设下， Michael Krautzberger维持预测：美联储将额外进行总共50个基点的"预防性"降息，令联邦基金目标利率 区间在2026年中降至3.25-3.5%，这轮温和宽松虽有助支持经济增长，并缓和下行风险，但仍低于市场 对终端利率低于3%的预期。 Michael Krautzberger认为，这次会议上储局官员更新的经济预测同样值得关注。9月的预测显示讯号互 相矛盾，即本地生产总值接近潜力水平、失业率逐步回落、通胀回归目标，但却同时预期将大幅降息。 当时点阵图呈现官员意见高度分歧，差距达125至150个基点，12月的预测或将重现类似 ...

安联环球投资公募市场首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger认为，预期美联储本月将降息25个基点，但内 部投票结果或将显示立场不一。美联储主席鲍威尔曾强调12月降息"远非已成定局"。由于政府停摆导致 部分官方数据缺失，加上美国经济表现强于预期，令官员倾向更审慎行事。展望未来，在经济不陷入衰 退的基本情境假设下，他维持预测美联储将额外进行总共50个基点的预防性降息，令联邦基金目标利率 区间在2026年中降至3.25-3.5%，这轮温和宽松虽有助支持经济增长，并缓和下行风险，但仍低于市场 对终端利率低于3%的预期。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices have declined ahead of key economic data releases, with expectations of rising inflation pressures that may weaken market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1 basis point to 4.04%, ending a three-day upward trend, while earlier it had dropped to the lowest level of the month [1] - Economists anticipate a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which is set to be released soon [1] Group 2 - Traders are betting on an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 10, but a rebound in inflation could impact future policy direction [3] - The Chief Investment Officer at Northern Trust Asset Management indicated that delayed economic data due to government shutdowns may lead the Fed to implement a "preventive rate cut" next month [3] - The U.S. Treasury is set to auction 5-year notes and restart the issuance of 2-year notes, with investors showing avoidance in recent short-term Treasury auctions [3] Group 3 - There is a risk that yields may retreat from current levels as the 10-year yield approaches the critical 4% level, which has previously acted as resistance [4]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is increasingly focused on economic downside risks, acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year and indicating a tilt towards employment goals in monetary policy [1][20] - The current U.S. economy is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with short-term labor market pressures outweighing inflationary pressures [1][20] - Inflation remains on a slow upward trajectory, primarily driven by service prices, while consumer spending shows resilience but indicates a trend of utilizing savings [1][9] Inflation Dynamics - High tariffs have not yet significantly impacted consumer prices, but there is a growing demand for price increases as companies seek to protect profit margins [2][3] - The ISM manufacturing import index fell to its lowest level since 2016, reflecting reduced procurement due to rising tariffs [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise from 2.3% to 3.3%, indicating cost pressures accumulating at the production level [7] Labor Market Trends - The labor market continues to exhibit a "low layoff, slow hiring" trend, with initial jobless claims remaining stable, suggesting companies are trying to retain employees despite economic slowdown [10] - Consumer sentiment regarding job security has declined, with expectations of unemployment rising, which may suppress future consumer spending [11] - The ISM manufacturing index indicates ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, with employment indices remaining below expectations [12][13] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales data for July showed a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by strong automobile sales and online retail, but consumer confidence has sharply declined due to inflation concerns [8][9] - A significant portion of consumers plans to cut spending in response to inflation, particularly in discretionary areas such as dining and home goods [8][9] Investment Climate - Durable goods orders fell by 2.8% in July, marking the third decline in four months, primarily driven by a drop in transportation equipment orders [15] - The housing market shows mixed signals, with new home construction rising but building permits declining, indicating potential future slowdowns in construction activity [14] Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, reflecting a consensus on the need to address economic risks and support employment [16][20] - Economic forecasts for GDP growth have been adjusted upward for 2025, while unemployment and inflation rates are expected to remain stable [17][18]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has reached new highs, and there is a potential for a 70% increase under extreme conditions, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank policies [4][7]. - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, with reserves valued at $4.5 trillion [6]. - The recent trend of significant ETF purchases of gold is expected to continue, especially with the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement one more rate cut this year, with the federal funds rate projected to be in the range of 3.75% to 4% [9]. - The U.S. economy is viewed optimistically, with resilient consumer spending and a projected core CPI of around 3% by year-end [9]. - Historical data suggests that U.S. stocks have a 100% probability of rising in the 12 months following the initiation of rate cuts [9]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets, including China, are expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as the pressure from dollar-denominated debt and currency appreciation will ease [10]. - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to experience a structural bull market, particularly in technology, materials, and healthcare sectors, while traditional sectors like banking and real estate may underperform [13]. - Foreign capital is projected to start flowing back into Chinese markets by the end of 2024, driven by favorable conditions in emerging markets and the correlation between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [14]. Group 4: Technology Sector and AI - The technology sector in the U.S. is expected to continue its growth, with significant investments in AI leading to increased productivity [11]. - The current valuation of Chinese tech stocks is considered high, but there is optimism about their potential if technological challenges are addressed [11][12]. - The development of AI in China is progressing rapidly, with notable advancements in various sectors, although challenges remain in certain areas like semiconductor manufacturing [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is almost certain, with market expectations indicating an 85.5% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by weak economic data and a deteriorating job market [1][2][13]. Economic Data and Employment - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, which, while above the Fed's 2% target, shows stability that could allow for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls declining and the unemployment rate increasing, leading to concerns about the need for a preemptive rate cut [2][3]. Market Expectations - The market has heavily positioned itself for a rate cut, with CME data showing an 85.5% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91.9% expectation for further cuts in December [2][8]. Policy Shift - The Fed's decision-making logic is clear: weak economic data and a declining job market, combined with stable inflation, support a lower interest rate environment [3][12]. - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from combating inflation to addressing economic slowdown, marking a significant transition in monetary policy [12]. Impact on Consumers and Markets - A rate cut in October would likely lower borrowing costs for consumers, potentially stimulating spending and supporting the stock market [4]. - The Fed's cautious approach suggests that the rate cut will not lead to aggressive monetary easing but rather a gradual adjustment based on economic data [6]. Global Implications - The Fed's decision to cut rates will have significant global repercussions, likely weakening the dollar and attracting capital flows into emerging markets [7]. Conclusion - The October rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost a certainty, serving as a preventive measure against potential economic downturns and signaling a critical shift in monetary policy focus [13][14].