Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is currently maintaining a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts due to high levels of uncertainty surrounding economic conditions, particularly influenced by tariff policies [1][2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily reliant on economic data, and any potential interest rate cuts will depend on clear evidence of the impact of tariffs on the economy, which may not be visible until late in the third quarter [3][4] - There is a significant focus on the balance between inflation and unemployment rates, with the Federal Reserve needing to make difficult trade-offs if both indicators rise simultaneously [4][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data, particularly the effects of tariffs on consumer spending and unemployment, as well as inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE [5][6] - Long-term inflation expectations are highlighted as a critical concern, with the potential for persistent inflation risks if expectations are not managed effectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials express a cautious stance regarding the current economic situation, emphasizing the complexity of monetary policy amid global uncertainties and trade policy fluctuations [1][3][7]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler highlights that despite global uncertainties, the real economy remains healthy, allowing for more time to address inflation issues and stabilize inflation expectations [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic supports maintaining interest rates due to rising economic risks from ongoing trade policy uncertainties, advocating for a wait-and-see approach for more economic data clarity [3][5]. - New York Fed President John Williams stresses the importance of managing inflation expectations within target ranges to ensure economic stability, indicating that the current environment is not suitable for preventive rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warns that businesses cannot easily pass on tariff costs to consumers, as consumer purchasing power and tolerance have been significantly impacted by years of high inflation [5]. - The series of speeches from Fed officials reflects a deep concern for the economic landscape, balancing inflation control and economic growth as a delicate choice for future monetary policy [7]. - The Fed is likely to maintain a patient and flexible approach, adjusting policies based on future economic data and global economic conditions rather than rushing into drastic measures [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the defense of the Federal Reserve's independence amidst criticism from President Trump, highlighting the importance of maintaining stable inflation and economic policies [1][5]. Group 1: Defense of Federal Reserve Independence - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the structure of the Federal Reserve Board has "withstood the test of time" and should be preserved, as it is likely to produce better policy outcomes such as lower inflation and reduced economic volatility [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members who cannot be dismissed for policy disagreements, ensuring a degree of independence from political pressures [2]. Group 2: Recent Policy Signals from Federal Reserve Officials - New York Fed President Williams emphasized that stabilizing inflation expectations is a cornerstone of the Federal Reserve's policy, asserting that maintaining price stability is their responsibility [5][6]. - Williams also indicated that discussions about "preventive rate cuts" are "untimely" given the current economic uncertainties, predicting that U.S. economic growth will be "significantly lower" in 2025 compared to 2024 [6]. - Fed Vice Chair Barr warned that U.S. trade policies could lead to sustained inflationary pressures and higher unemployment rates [6]. Group 3: Criticism from Potential Future Fed Chair - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, criticized the Fed for not controlling inflation stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Fed should take responsibility if it fails to prevent price increases from becoming persistent inflation [7][8]. - Warsh argued that public confidence in the central bank's ability to achieve price stability is a prerequisite for actual price stability [8].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is softening its most aggressive tariff policies, including a 90-day suspension of retaliatory tariffs and exemptions for ICT products, while modifying auto parts tariffs to avoid overlap with steel and aluminum tariffs [1][2] - The expected reduction of US tariffs on China from approximately 160% to 60% is anticipated, with potential simultaneous reductions in Chinese tariffs on the US [1][2] Group 2 - Hard data shows resilience in the labor market, with initial unemployment claims indicating strength despite the distortion from early procurement in GDP data [1][2] - Financial conditions have significantly eased, with current levels suggesting a minimal drag on US GDP growth of only 0.2 percentage points in Q3 [1][2] Group 3 - The probability of recession remains at 45%, with risks from potential tax increases in sectors like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and film, and the delayed impact of previously announced tariffs [2][3] - Soft data has declined below typical levels seen in event-driven recessions, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [2][3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook remains highly uncertain, with a delay in the first preventive rate cut from June to July, while concerns about the Fed's independence are rising due to potential political pressures [3][4] - A decrease in the Fed's independence could lead to worsening long-term inflation [4] Group 5 - Despite slight economic resilience, the investment environment is challenging, with risks of inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and rising unemployment [5] - The company maintains a strong stance on shorting the dollar and going long on gold, while also favoring UK rates, copper, and US natural gas, but is bearish on oil [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive pause since January and March [2] - The Fed noted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is strong, inflation is still at a relatively high level, indicating increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that significant tariff increases by the U.S. government could lead to rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and increasing unemployment, potentially delaying the achievement of the Fed's goals until next year [2][3] Group 2 - Powell stated that tariffs might have a short-term impact on inflation but could also lead to more persistent effects, emphasizing the appropriateness of the current policy stance and the need for patience [3] - He dismissed the idea of preemptive rate cuts before achieving inflation targets, indicating that the current situation does not warrant such actions until more data is available [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase of 177,000 in non-farm payrolls for April, with an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, while the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year due to increased imports to avoid tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in gold and Bitcoin as potential "new safe-haven assets" amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to consider which asset may be more favorable for risk management [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - The expectation of interest rate cuts has triggered a chain reaction in global capital markets, with a consensus forming around the logic of "preventive rate cuts" due to various instability factors [3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming a historically high proportion of fiscal revenue, leading to concerns about long-term inflation despite short-term relief from rate cuts [4]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds has inverted, with the 10-year bond yield dropping below 4%, prompting a shift of funds from dollar assets to safe-haven assets like gold and yen [4]. Group 2: Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold has demonstrated resilience during market turmoil, with COMEX gold prices reaching a historical high of over $2,500 per ounce in March 2025, and currently trading at $3,393.4 per ounce [4][6]. - The demand for gold is supported by its historical role as a value store during crises, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings during the 2024 Israel-Palestine conflict [6]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 1,136 tons in 2024, and China has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [6]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Position and Challenges - Bitcoin has shown a dual nature in 2025, being included in some institutional portfolios while still facing regulatory scrutiny and volatility [11]. - Despite a temporary price surge due to a halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets remains high, as evidenced by an 18% drop during the 2024 U.S. stock market crash [12]. - Bitcoin's market capitalization is significantly lower than gold's, at $1.2 trillion compared to gold's over $13 trillion, limiting its capacity to absorb large-scale safe-haven investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of both assets rather than chasing trends, suggesting that gold serves as a "ballast" for systemic risk, while Bitcoin is viewed as an "experiment" with high volatility and regulatory uncertainties [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada discussed the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut during its April meeting but ultimately decided to maintain the current rate [1] Group 1 - Some officials believe that in times of uncertainty, a rate cut could be a preventive measure [1] - The central bank's policy aims to support the economy while continuously monitoring price levels [1] - Certain officials stated that the central bank has flexibility in using rate cuts to support growth [1] - Members agreed that forward guidance does not need to be as robust as in the past [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's statements on the Federal Reserve and the subsequent fluctuations in the currency market, particularly the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On April 22, the Japanese yen experienced a sharp decline against the US dollar, dropping to the mid-143 yen range per dollar, a decrease of nearly 3 yen compared to the previous day [1]. - The dollar was heavily repurchased following Trump's assurance that he "has no plans to fire" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleviating market concerns about the independence of the central bank [1]. - The dollar to yen exchange rate fell to 139.80 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since September 2024, indicating a significant appreciation of the yen [1]. Group 2: Trump's Position on Interest Rates - Trump expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance on lowering policy interest rates, maintaining his call for rate cuts to support the economy [2]. - His previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve included suggestions to dismiss Powell, which raised concerns about the central bank's independence [1].

美国总统特朗普（左）和美联储主席鲍威尔(Reuters) 道琼斯工业平均指数一度下跌1300点以上，美元触及近三年来最低点，美国长期国债收益率 也上升（债券价格下跌）。"毫无疑问，美国总统破坏美联储独立性的可能性正在加剧损害国 内外投资者对美国资产信任这一隐忧"…… 美国总统特朗普加强了对美联储（FRB）的批评，在4月21日的美国股票市场，道琼斯工 业平均指数一度下跌1300点以上，美元触及近三年来最低点，美国长期国债收益率也上升 （债券价格下跌）。动摇央行独立性的事态伤害了投资者对美国的信心，再次引发了股债 汇"三杀"。 标普500成分股全面下跌 道琼斯指数比上周末下跌971点（2.5%），以3万8170点收盘。接近该指数8日创出的近期 最低点（3万7645点）。特朗普9日针对对等关税的提高宣布暂停一部分，因警戒感缓解而一 度出现回购美国股票的动向，但目前再次被抛售压制。 特朗普此前一直指责鲍威尔的货币政策选择是"政治性的"，4月17日进一步表示"应该尽快解 雇"。美国国家经济委员会（NEC）主任哈塞特也针对是否解雇鲍威尔对记者们表示，"总统及 其团队正在研究"。 特朗普表示"损害美国资产的信誉" 中央银行 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[5] - The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT Taper) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion per month starting April 1, while MBS reduction remains at $35 billion per month[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%[5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.8% due to tariff impacts[5] - The Fed's approach has shifted from preemptive rate cuts to a data-dependent strategy, indicating potential delays in response to economic downturns[11] - Current economic indicators, such as a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggest that the economy remains in reasonable condition despite inflation concerns[10] Global Economic Context - The U.S. liquidity situation is tight, with the Fed's total assets reduced to $6.7 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels[7] - China's economic challenges are characterized by deflation rather than inflation, with net exports contributing 30% to GDP in 2024, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis[12] - The need for proactive monetary policy adjustments in China is emphasized, particularly in light of potential U.S. economic downturns and tariff impacts[13]