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美联储今年首次降息25个基点,中美利差收窄,中国资产抢占发展机遇
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-19 12:29
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%, marking the fourth adjustment since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [2][4] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a total potential cut of 75 basis points for the year [2][7] - Following the rate cut, global capital markets experienced volatility, with U.S. stock indices initially rising before quickly retreating, and the dollar index showing mixed movements [2][8] Group 2 - The current economic conditions in the U.S. show increasing downward pressure, with market predictions suggesting the possibility of three more rate cuts within the year [3][9] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a preventive measure in response to deteriorating employment data, which has become a more pressing concern than moderate inflation [4][6] - The Fed has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year, while also lowering unemployment rate expectations, indicating some confidence in economic resilience [6][7] Group 3 - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to ease external pressures on the Chinese yuan, creating a more favorable environment for the People's Bank of China to implement monetary easing [9][10] - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to provide a window for policy adjustments in China, allowing for a focus on stimulating domestic economic growth [10][11] - Historical trends suggest that domestic equity assets in China may yield excess returns during Fed rate cut cycles, while bond prices typically rise and yields fall [11][12]
铜产业链周度报告-20250919
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 09:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The meeting was generally in line with expectations, but the attitude was neutral and slightly hawkish. After the interest rate cut was realized, the US dollar rebounded after hitting a low, and commodities adjusted overall. The expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year was confirmed, and liquidity growth would continue [5][11]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][57]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year and the resumption of rate cuts after 9 months. Most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year and one next year [11]. - From January to August, the national industrial added - value above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment growth rates declined, and real estate development investment decreased [14]. - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - There is an expectation that the smelting output center will shift downward [8]. - The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - Social inventory has decreased [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The interest rate cut has been realized, and the bullish news is exhausted [8]. - The spot premium continues to decline [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Copper Ore Imports - In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.9 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [17]. 3.3.2 Copper Concentrate TC - As of the week of September 12, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.17 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot TC of copper concentrate increased slightly, but the overall sentiment was cautious, and spot transactions remained light [21]. 3.3.3 Copper Production - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In September, it is expected that the output will decline due to smelter maintenance and anode copper supply shortages [25]. 3.3.4 Scrap Copper Imports - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The main driving factor was strong domestic demand [29]. 3.3.5 Copper Products Output - In August 2025, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2%, and a multi - year high for the same period [33]. 3.3.6 Premium between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 18, the premium between refined and scrap copper was around - 530 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [37]. 3.3.7 Social Inventory - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline. SHFE copper inventory increased by 14.9% to 94,054 tons in the week of September 12. COMEX copper inventory reached a new high since January 2004. On September 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.13 tons compared with September 15 [50]. 3.3.8 Copper Spot Premium - On September 18, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around 30 yuan per ton, with the premium narrowing. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 71.09 US dollars per ton, with the discount widening [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The copper price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 79,200. The mid - term strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [57].
美国衰退将至?
虎嗅APP· 2025-09-19 00:10
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a preventive measure to support the economy, but it does not eliminate the risk of recession in the U.S. economy [5][9][10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July 2025, below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [11]. - In August 2025, non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [11]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downward, indicating a reduction of 911,000 jobs, revealing a more fragile labor market than previously thought [11]. Manufacturing Sector - The New York Fed's manufacturing index fell to -8.7 in September 2025, significantly below the forecast of 5.0, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing sector [12]. Trade Policies - Trade protectionism, particularly the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, is negatively impacting the U.S. economy by increasing costs for consumers and businesses, leading to reduced investment and consumer spending [13][14]. - The tariffs are expected to result in significant job losses and income reductions for American households, with estimates suggesting a potential recession probability increase from 25% to 40% [14]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, various asset classes reacted with volatility, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's optimistic forecasts [9][10]. - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise as investors seek refuge from potential economic downturns [17]. Long-term Implications - The U.S. government's rising debt burden, projected to exceed $37 trillion, poses a risk to the long-term stability of U.S. Treasuries, potentially diminishing their safe-haven status [18]. - The dollar may experience a short-term strengthening due to safe-haven flows, but long-term trends suggest a weakening of the dollar as global trust in U.S. fiscal management declines [19]. Summary of Asset Movements - In the event of a recession or heightened recession expectations, investors typically shift from risk assets to safe-haven assets, leading to a temporary increase in demand for U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, while long-term concerns about debt and creditworthiness may undermine their value [20].
美联储如期降息 普通人如何理财?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 23:06
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is expected to influence various asset classes and encourage a shift of savings from deposits to capital markets [2][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to lead to a decline in domestic deposit rates, prompting a significant shift of household savings towards capital markets [4][5] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. equities generally maintain an upward trajectory following rate cuts, except in scenarios of recessionary rate cuts [3][6] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to continue its downward trend, while the dollar index may experience short-term weakness but lacks a consistent long-term pattern [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, major U.S. stock indices initially surged but then quickly retreated, indicating market volatility [4][5] - The dollar index saw a significant drop but rebounded towards the end of the trading session, ultimately closing higher [4] - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. experienced notable gains, particularly among well-known Chinese companies [4] Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Fed's decision aligns with market expectations, with projections indicating two more rate cuts by the end of the year [6][9] - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with GDP and inflation expectations raised, while unemployment rate predictions have been lowered [6][7] - The current economic environment suggests that the rate cut is more of a preventive measure rather than a response to an immediate crisis [8][9] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are encouraged to increase their allocations to stocks and funds to enhance expected returns, as equity assets in China are becoming more attractive [5] - A recommended allocation of approximately 20% to gold assets is suggested to maintain value amidst market fluctuations [5] - The potential for a global wave of central bank rate cuts is highlighted, with the Chinese central bank having significant room for monetary easing to support the economy [4][5]
科普向!硬核解读美联储降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 18:03
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [2] - The market reaction showed a mixed performance, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 slightly declined by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.33%, indicating varied responses to the rate cut [2] - Traditional sectors like utilities and consumer staples performed better due to lower financing costs and defensive attributes, while high-valuation tech stocks showed signs of profit-taking [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Currency Movements - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 2.85%, with notable gains in Chinese companies like Baidu, which rose by 11.3% [2] - The US dollar index experienced significant volatility, dropping to 96.22 before rebounding to around 97, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.1056 against the dollar, reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $3700 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a preventive measure amid slowing economic growth, with employment risks rising and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, far below the expected 75,000 [3] - The current economic situation reflects a combination of economic slowdown and persistent inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The rate cut is expected to stimulate economic activity through lower funding costs, impacting exchange rates, capital flows, and asset pricing [4] Group 4: Impact on China and Global Markets - The Fed's rate cut creates favorable conditions for China's central bank to consider rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the economy [7] - Chinese sectors such as metals, energy, and financials are likely to benefit from increased global liquidity and demand recovery, while export-oriented companies may face pressure from RMB appreciation [7] - The capital flow dynamics are influenced by the interest rate differential between the US and China, with a significant gap attracting capital towards US assets [6] Group 5: Implications for Individuals - The rate cut is expected to lower mortgage rates, easing monthly payment burdens for individuals [8] - Investment strategies may shift towards equities and gold, with recommendations for conservative investors to consider gold ETFs and high-grade bonds [8] - The Fed may implement additional rate cuts in the coming months, with the terminal rate projected between 3.5%-4.0%, balancing employment pressures and inflation control [9]
\预防性\降息开启,靴子轻轻落地
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 09:08
"预防性"降息开启,靴子轻轻落地 国联期货研究所 宏观|专题报告 2025 年 9 月 18 日 从业资格证号:F3055965 投资咨询证书号:Z0001999 相关研究报告: 2025 年中期宏观经济展望: 秩序重构浪涌急,应变守机 稳驭舟 2025 年二季度宏观展望:多 空拉锯,全球高波动弱增长 格局深化 2025 年宏观经济展望:畅通 经济循环,走出低通胀 2024 年中期宏观经济展望: 虚云散尽见真章,厚积薄发 待春雷 2024 年宏观经济展望:行稳 方致远,温和渐进修复 宏观专题:透过金融数据探 寻资金运转逻辑与效率 目 录 3. 后续降息路径探讨 4. 市场影响 证监许可[2011]1773 号 1. 美联储议息会议概览 王娜 2. "预防性"降息开启,靴子轻轻落地 鲍威尔 8 月 22 日在 Jackson Hole 全球央行峰会上鸽派发言后,全球大类资产的 降息交易正式启动,9月17日美联储降息靴子落地,联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25% 至 4.5%降至 4.00%至 4.25%,降幅 25 个基点。这是美联储 2025 年开年以来九个月内 首次决定降息。美联储自去年 9 月到 12 月连 ...
美联储降息靴子落地!如何影响大类资产?资金用脚投票,坚定涌入这三大方向!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 06:04
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months since December of the previous year [1] - This rate cut is viewed as a "preventive rate cut" aimed at stimulating economic activity and supporting the job market while mitigating the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy [1][2] - Analysts note that the Fed's decision reflects a balance between addressing employment concerns and managing inflation, with employment risks taking precedence over inflation worries [1] Group 2: Impact on Asset Classes - The rate cut is expected to lower financing costs and enhance liquidity, leading to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which could benefit commodities like gold and copper [1] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, are anticipated to strengthen as a result of the rate cut [1] - Long-term interest rates are likely to decline, benefiting growth sectors and interest-sensitive industries such as technology stocks in Hong Kong and the STAR Market [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - The rate cut is expected to improve macroeconomic growth expectations, leading to a potential rebound in industrial commodities [2][4] - Precious metals like gold are projected to experience price resilience due to their anti-inflation properties, despite a short-term price correction following the rate cut [5] - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to show strong performance due to their financial attributes being enhanced in a depreciating dollar environment [5] Group 4: Investment Trends in the Metal Sector - The market is seeing significant inflows into the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652), driven by expectations of a bullish trend in the nonferrous metal sector due to overseas inflation [3] - The demand for nonferrous metals is anticipated to rise as economic growth expectations improve, further pushing up prices [4] - Despite a short-term pullback in the Nonferrous 50 ETF following the rate cut, there remains strong investor confidence in the long-term value of the sector, with substantial net subscriptions recorded [5][9] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Response - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cut, with historical data showing positive short-term effects on the market following previous rate cuts [10] - Growth sectors such as technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals are likely to see positive impacts in the short term, with potential for foreign capital inflows if synchronized monetary easing occurs [10] - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (520980) has attracted significant investment, reflecting strong market interest in top technology assets amid the AI wave [11][13]
美联储降息冲击,国际金价拉升突破3700美元后回落,获利盘出逃
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-18 06:03
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which led to a temporary spike in gold prices above $3700 per ounce before a subsequent decline [1][3][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The rate cut was primarily triggered by deteriorating employment data, which indicated a need for "preventive rate cuts" to address potential worsening job conditions [3][6] - The Fed raised its growth and inflation forecasts, suggesting a "near-dove, far-hawk" stance, which negatively impacted gold prices as it indicated less aggressive monetary easing in the future [6][7] Group 2: Gold Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to $3707.47 per ounce but later fell approximately 1.4% from that peak due to profit-taking and the Fed's less dovish signals [1][3][4] - The strong upward movement in gold prices was driven by increasing expectations of U.S. monetary easing, particularly after disappointing employment data [3][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment was influenced by the anticipation of a 50 basis point cut, but the Fed's decision for a 25 basis point cut led to profit-taking in gold [6][7] - The potential weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility, which may support gold prices in the long term [7]
美联储预防性降息落地 金价中长期向上趋势未改
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-18 05:59
摘要今日周四(9月18日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于3651.49美元附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新 报3657.58美元/盎司,跌幅0.05%,最高上探3671.65美元/盎司,最低触及3651.49美元/盎司。目前来 看,国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周四(9月18日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于3651.49美元附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新报 3657.58美元/盎司,跌幅0.05%,最高上探3671.65美元/盎司,最低触及3651.49美元/盎司。目前来看, 国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议,宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之 间。在12位美联储票委中,有11人支持降息25个基点,仅本周刚确认加入理事会的且由美国总统特朗普 提名的美联储理事米兰,主张更大幅度地降息50个基点。 这既是美联储2025年内的首次降息,也是在2024年连续三次(9月、11月、12月)累降100个基点之后, 时隔九个月的再度重启降息。而本月降息的理由也较为明确,即近期劳动力市场疲软带来的阻力已远超 通胀的温和反弹,美联储需采取"预防性"措施来应对可能 ...
美联储9月货币政策会议点评与展望:美联储重启降息,但未来政策路径依然复杂
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-09-18 05:56
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut in nine months[2] - The median dot plot indicates the Fed expects three rate cuts this year, an increase from the previous forecast, with one additional cut expected next year[2] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation to employment, as employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[7] - The Fed revised down non-farm employment data for April 2024 to March 2025 by 911,000, the largest historical revision[7] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 1.6% while lowering unemployment rate expectations for the next two years[8] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Core PCE inflation is expected to be influenced by tariffs, contributing only 0.3-0.4 percentage points, indicating a slower and smaller impact than anticipated[7] - The Fed's inflation target is now projected to be reached by 2028, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation in the medium term[8] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - The internal policy divergence within the Fed is significant, with 9 members expecting two more cuts this year, while 6 do not foresee any further cuts[9] - The likelihood of continuous rate cuts remains uncertain, as economic data and political factors will heavily influence future decisions[12] - The Fed's gradual approach aims to balance employment stability with inflation control, avoiding rapid rate adjustments[10]