Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently in a phase of increased volatility and divergence, necessitating a focus on deterministic investments to mitigate risks [1] - Gold's upward trend has weakened, aligning with the assessment that the Fed's rate cut trades are largely concluded, leading to increased investor confidence in gold pricing [2] - The performance of various asset classes shows a clear distinction in investor sentiment towards traditional versus emerging technologies, with significant movements in the tech sector [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data reflects the effects of anti-involution policies, with CPI indicating weak consumer demand and PPI showing a rebound as a direct result of these policies [4] - The growth rate of social financing remains stable, indicating no significant influx of funds into the stock market or a clear signal of credit expansion in the real economy [4] - New RMB loans in August were 589 billion, lower than the previous year's 900 billion, suggesting weak credit demand despite the central bank's easing measures [4] Group 3: External Factors and Risk Premium - External shocks, including geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, have heightened risk premiums, impacting asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the potential for increased conflict have raised concerns about the stability of risk premiums in the market [7] - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates a trend of rising risk premiums, reflecting the market's reaction to economic data versus expectations [7] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that low-volatility strategies may be effective, with a narrowing divergence between stocks and bonds [8] - The anticipated anti-dumping investigation into U.S. imports of simulated chips may reignite import substitution trends, serving as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations [8] - Emphasis on self-sustaining market demand as the true source of value investment is highlighted, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a phase of increased volatility and divergence, necessitating a focus on certain investment strategies that enhance certainty, such as anti-involution policies, global supply chain layouts, and domestic consumption [3][4]. Market Review - Last week's performance showed a weakening trend in gold prices, aligning with the assessment that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are nearing an end. The rise in global risk premiums has led to increased investor confidence in gold pricing, although opinions on its potential peak vary significantly [4][5]. - The performance of various asset classes indicates a clear preference for technology and innovation sectors over traditional sectors, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 showing stronger gains compared to the Northbound Stock Connect [4][5]. - The real estate sector's rebound reflects investor hopes for government intervention to support economic stability, although this is viewed as a temporary rather than a sustainable trend [5]. Macroeconomic Data - Recent economic data has confirmed the effects of anti-involution policies, with CPI indicating weak consumer demand and PPI showing a recovery as a direct result of these policies. The slowdown in exports is a natural correction following previous surges [8][10]. - The stability in social financing growth suggests no significant influx of funds into the stock market or a clear signal of credit expansion in the real economy. New RMB loans in August were lower than the previous year, indicating weak credit demand despite monetary easing measures [8][10]. External Shocks and Risk Premiums - External factors, including the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions, have heightened risk premiums, impacting asset allocation strategies. The recent focus on potential tariffs has re-entered investor considerations, complicating the market outlook [10][11]. - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates an increase in risk premiums, suggesting that external conflicts could have a more pronounced impact on market dynamics in the near term [11]. Strategic Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that low-volatility strategies may be effective, with a narrowing gap between equity and bond markets. However, the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts from the Chinese central bank remains low [13]. - The market is expected to continue consolidating amid rising risk premiums, with a focus on certainty-driven investments. The upcoming anti-dumping investigations into US-origin chips may reignite discussions around import substitution, reflecting the ongoing US-China negotiations [13].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 5.48% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.10%. In contrast, the large-cap value index fell by 0.22%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 2.16% [1] - The performance of sectors showed that electronics and real estate were leading, while comprehensive and banking sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, has reached historical extremes. As of October 28, 2022, it was at 4.08%, indicating a market rebound. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth time since 2016 it exceeded 4% [1] - As of September 12, 2025, the risk premium indicator was at 2.87%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.76% [1] Valuation Levels - As of September 12, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE was at the 78th percentile, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 were at 72% and 70%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to the 48th percentile, indicating a relative median valuation level historically [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has historically experienced bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. The current adjustment, which began in Q1 2021, has shown sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Investment Themes - The latest investment themes identified include automotive, communication, artificial intelligence, and chemicals. Specific indices highlighted are the CSI 800 Automotive and Parts Index, CSI All Share Communication Equipment Index, CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, and CSI Sub-segment Chemical Industry Theme Index [2][3] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - Over the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 11.6 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 59.1 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 22,948 billion yuan [2] Market Sentiment - The proportion of stocks above the 200-day moving average indicates market sentiment, with a focus on the long-term trend [12] Financing Balance - The financing balance reflects the overall market leverage and investor sentiment towards equity investments [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its comparison with **developed markets**, particularly the **U.S. stock market**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Cycles**: The Chinese economy is currently in a recovery phase, contrasting with the downturn in the U.S. and other developed countries, which enhances the investment value of Chinese stocks while posing risks for U.S. equities [1][5] 2. **Asset Allocation Framework**: The asset allocation analysis framework is divided into **strategic** and **tactical** configurations, with strategic allocation focusing on long-term fixed asset ratios and tactical allocation allowing for adjustments based on market conditions [2] 3. **Liquidity vs. Inflation**: In the Chinese market, liquidity is deemed more critical than inflation, with "credit pulse" being a significant leading indicator for asset price changes [1][11] 4. **Fiscal Pulse**: Fiscal pulse has gained importance as a supplementary indicator to credit pulse, especially in times of poor macro liquidity transmission, showing a predictive capability that has surpassed credit pulse post-pandemic [1][14] 5. **Risk Premium (ERP)**: ERP is highlighted as a crucial valuation metric, indicating the expected excess return of stocks over bonds, particularly significant in the Chinese market [1][15][16] 6. **Global Asset Allocation Factors**: Key factors for Chinese investors in global asset allocation include the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the Federal Reserve, with U.S. inflation being a dominant variable affecting these factors [1][17] 7. **Gold Pricing Framework**: A new pricing framework for gold has been established, predicting potential price increases to the range of $3,000 to $5,000, following the decoupling of gold from U.S. Treasury yields [1][22] 8. **Dollar Strength**: The strength of the U.S. dollar is driven by fundamental, policy, and capital factors, maintaining its significant role in global asset allocation [1][21] 9. **Market Indicators**: The analysis of forward-looking indicators can help predict inflation trends, with historical data supporting the predictive power of rental prices on future inflation [1][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Limitations of the Merrill Clock**: The applicability of the Merrill Clock in the Chinese market is limited, as economic phases often jump or reverse, leading to poor predictive performance regarding asset behavior [1][8][10] 2. **Impact of Economic Downturns**: During economic downturns, there is a tendency to increase bond holdings, and this analysis can be extended globally to inform cross-border asset allocation decisions [1][4] 3. **Long-term vs. Short-term Cycles**: Short-term growth cycles last 3 to 5 years, while long-term cycles can extend for decades, necessitating a broader data reference to avoid misleading conclusions from single-country cases [1][6] 4. **Complexity of Policy Responses**: The complexity of policy responses in China, which may not directly reflect economic fundamentals, complicates the predictive capabilities of frameworks like the Merrill Clock [1][9][10] 5. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The future trajectory of the Renminbi is influenced not only by trade factors but also by the performance of Chinese market stocks, which can support the currency [1][23] 6. **Changing Dynamics of Global Asset Allocation**: The traditional relationship between U.S. Treasuries and the dollar is evolving, indicating a potential fragmentation in global asset allocation strategies [1][24]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 5.42% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.35%. The large-cap value index fell by 1.25%, and the large-cap growth index rose by 1.68%. The SSE 50 Index dropped by 1.15%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 fell by 2.41%. The power equipment and comprehensive sectors performed well, while the defense, military, and computer sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels. This metric reached 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022, leading to a rapid market rebound. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of September 5, 2025, the indicator stands at 2.99%, with the two-standard-deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of September 5, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE is at the 76th percentile. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 are at 71% and 69%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 47%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 59% and 55%, respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines have ranged from 40% to 45%. The current adjustment, which began in the first quarter of 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 29.7 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 35.8 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 25,676 billion yuan [2]. AI and Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) has been utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus areas include communication and artificial intelligence, covering sub-indices such as communication equipment, AI industry, and 5G [8]. Indexes of Interest - The following indices are highlighted as of September 5, 2025: - CSI All Share Communication Equipment Index - CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry Index - CSI Communication Equipment Theme Index - ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index - CSI 5G Communication Theme Index [3][9].

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and address "involution - style" competition [2] - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - imported optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [2] - The Coke Association believes that current coke does not meet the conditions for price reduction, and enterprises will jointly limit production to maintain prices [2] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, coke, Shanghai silver, stainless steel, Shanghai gold [3] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.69%, precious metals rose 29.55%, oilseeds rose 10.84%, non - ferrous metals rose 21.35%, soft commodities rose 2.42%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 14.38%, energy rose 2.77%, chemicals rose 11.98%, grains rose 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.94% [3] Group 3: Plate Position - There are data on the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.25%, a monthly decline of 2.39%, and an annual increase of 12.36% [5] - The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly increase of 0.65%, and an annual increase of 10.55% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.61% [5] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily decline of 0.77%, a monthly decline of 0.66%, and an annual increase of 1.22% [5] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and an annual decrease of 9.41% [5]

Report Overview - The report provides a snapshot of the global asset market performance on September 1, 2025, including government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [2] Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year government bond yields**: In the US, it was 4.230 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.025, a one - week change of - 0.025, a one - month change of 0.012, and a one - year change of 0.428. Different countries showed various trends in yield changes over different time frames [2] - **2 - year government bond yields**: For example, the US 2 - year yield was 3.590 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.080, and a one - year change of - 0.470 [2] Exchange Rates - **Dollar against major emerging economies' currencies**: Against the Brazilian real, the exchange rate was 5.430 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of - 2.03%, and a one - year change of - 1.08% [2] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.131 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.00%, a one - week change of - 0.51%, a one - month change of - 0.87%, and a one - year change of - 0.01% [2] Stock Indices - **Major economies' stock indices**: The S&P 500 was at 6460.260 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.64%, a one - week change of - 0.10%, a one - month change of 3.56%, and a one - year change of 14.93% [2] - **Asian stock indices**: The Hang Seng Index was 25077.620 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.32%, a one - week change of - 1.03%, a one - month change of 2.33%, and a one - year change of 44.20% [2] Credit Bond Indices - **Investment - grade and high - yield bond indices**: The US investment - grade credit bond index was 3463.740 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.25%, a one - week change of - 0.08%, a one - month change of 0.35%, and a one - year change of 3.38% [2] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index performance**: The A - share index closed at 3857.93 with a 0.37% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4496.76 with a 0.74% increase [3] - **Fund flow**: The latest A - share fund flow was - 952.48, and the 5 - day average was - 1067.85 [3] - **Trading volume**: The latest trading volume of the two Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 27982.97, with a month - on - month change of - 1725.06 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - **Closing prices and changes**: The T00 treasury bond futures closed at 108.050 with a - 0.15% change, and the TF00 closed at 105.665 with a - 0.04% change [4] - **Funding rates**: The R001 funding rate was 1.4184% with a daily change of - 14.00 BP, and the R007 was 1.5171% with a - 4.00 BP change [4]

Group 1 - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.5% last Friday and continuing to fall on Monday, with a peak drop of 3.6%, marking the largest decline since April 8 [1][2] - As of the latest report, the Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.11%, closing at 7743.73, after reaching a high of 7748.90 and a low of 7547.56 during the trading session [2] - Analysts indicate that political risks in Indonesia are rising, leading to an increase in market risk premiums, and they maintain a cautious stance on Indonesian equities due to valuations not reflecting potential economic issues [2] Group 2 - Prior to the recent events, the Indonesian stock market had reached an all-time high, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 9.6% [3] - The Indonesian economy showed better-than-expected growth, with the second-quarter growth rate exceeding 5%, which has bolstered market confidence [5] - The Indonesian central bank is focused on maintaining currency stability and ensuring sufficient liquidity for the rupiah, while also implementing policies to enhance foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 3 - Recent large-scale protests in Jakarta and other cities have led to significant unrest, with reports of police stations and government buildings being damaged, resulting in casualties [6] - The Chinese Embassy in Indonesia has issued safety warnings to Chinese citizens and institutions, advising them to avoid large gatherings and stay informed about local developments [6][9]