Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar and created uncertainty in the market, allowing the euro to maintain its structural strength and range-bound movement against the dollar [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow range, with clear resistance at 1.16059 and support at 1.15627, reflecting indecision among traders as they await the delayed CPI data [3][14]. - The postponement of the CPI data has removed a crucial directional guide for the dollar, leading to a weakening sentiment towards the dollar while the euro has managed to hold onto recent gains [3][5]. Impact of CPI Delay - The delay in U.S. CPI data is a key factor affecting the euro to dollar exchange rate, as uncertainty leads to a reduction in dollar long positions, providing natural support for the euro [5]. - The forex market is currently in a "neutral mode," with traders managing expectations in the absence of new information, which tends to impact the dollar more than the euro [6]. Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar pair is in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout expected after the CPI data is released, rather than before [7]. - The current technical outlook suggests that a breakout above 1.16059 could lead to targets at 1.16350 and 1.16688, while a drop below 1.15627 could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.15400 or lower [16][18]. Fundamental Drivers - The euro's resilience is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including a narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which diminishes the dollar's yield advantage [8][10]. - Improvements in European market sentiment, service activity, and industrial demand are providing support for the euro, with stability becoming an advantage rather than a weakness [9]. - The reduction of risk premiums related to energy concerns, bond vulnerabilities, and geopolitical issues has made the euro a safer choice when the dollar is under pressure [10]. Overall Outlook - The current macro environment allows the euro to maintain stability without needing to exhibit strong performance, as this stability is sufficient to support an upward trend when the dollar is weak [11].

- The report provides a snapshot of the daily investment dynamics of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting the performance of indices such as the CSI 1000 (-0.72%) and CSI 2000 (-0.68%), which experienced the largest declines on November 12, 2025 [1][2][11] - The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext indices showed consecutive three-day declines, with the ChiNext index achieving the highest annual growth rate of 45.78%, followed by CSI 2000 (33.78%) and CSI 500 (26.5%) [11][14] - The report compares indices against their moving averages and 250-day highs and lows, noting that the SSE 50 index broke above its 5-day moving average, while indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 fell below their respective short-term averages [14] - Turnover rates and trading volume proportions are analyzed, with CSI 2000 showing the highest turnover rate (4.27%) and the CSI 1000 index accounting for 20.49% of trading volume [3][16][17] - Daily return distributions are examined, revealing that the ChiNext index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 has the smallest negative kurtosis deviation [23] - Risk premium analysis indicates that SSE 50 and CSI 300 have relatively high 5-year percentile values (65.56% and 44.92%, respectively), while CSI 1000 and CSI 500 have lower values (26.35% and 25.32%) [3][25][29] - PE-TTM values are evaluated, showing that CSI 1000 (97.44%) and CSI 500 (96.2%) have high 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (82.98%) and ChiNext (55.79%) are lower [38][39] - Dividend yield analysis highlights that ChiNext (69.01%) and CSI 1000 (36.53%) have high 5-year historical percentile values, while CSI 500 (16.28%) and CSI 2000 (13.97%) are lower [4][50][49] - Current net-breaking rates are reported, with SSE 50 at 20.0%, CSI 300 at 15.33%, and ChiNext at 1.0%, reflecting market valuation attitudes [51]

- The report focuses on the daily investment dynamics of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting the performance of indices such as the CSI 2000, SSE 50, and ChiNext Index, with CSI 2000 and SSE 50 showing the highest daily gains of 0.61% and 0.51%, respectively[2][10][11] - The analysis includes comparisons of indices with their moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120, MA250) and their proximity to the 250-day high and low levels, showing that most indices are above their short-term moving averages except for the ChiNext Index, which fell below MA5 and MA10[14][15] - Turnover rates and trading volume proportions are analyzed, with CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate at 4.5, followed by ChiNext Index at 2.85, and CSI 1000 at 2.82, while SSE 50 has the lowest turnover rate at 0.29[17][18] - The daily return distribution of indices is examined, revealing that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 has the smallest negative kurtosis deviation and CSI 2000 has the smallest negative skewness[24][26] - Risk premium analysis is conducted using the 10-year government bond yield as the risk-free rate, showing that SSE 50 and CSI 300 have the highest risk premiums at 73.73% and 66.43%, respectively, while ChiNext Index has the lowest at 27.3%[28][31][34] - PE-TTM values and historical percentiles are analyzed, indicating that CSI 1000 and CSI 500 have the highest 5-year percentiles at 98.26% and 97.19%, respectively, while CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index have lower percentiles at 83.39% and 56.61%[37][40][41] - Dividend yield analysis shows that ChiNext Index has the highest 5-year historical percentile at 65.21%, followed by SSE 50 at 35.12%, while CSI 500 and CSI 2000 have lower percentiles at 14.38% and 12.73%, respectively[45][50][51] - The report also examines the net asset value (NAV) break rate, with SSE 50 having the highest break rate at 18.0%, followed by CSI 300 at 15.0%, while ChiNext Index has the lowest break rate at 1.0%[52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a slight weekly increase and active trading, but there is a notable rotation of funds towards consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, while previously strong AI and technology stocks are undergoing adjustments [1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 21.65% since the beginning of 2023, with a current rolling TTM PE of approximately 14.1 times, positioned at about the 64th percentile historically [2] - The CSI 500 Index has risen by 25.01% in 2023, with a TTM PE of around 34 times, situated at about the 62nd percentile historically, indicating a higher valuation cost-effectiveness [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a 38.47% increase since the start of 2023, with a TTM PE of approximately 41 times, located at the 35th percentile historically, suggesting a greater undervaluation compared to the other indices [2] Valuation Comparison - The A-share market, represented by the CSI 300 Index at 14.1 times PE, is significantly lower than major global indices such as the S&P 500 (29.1 times), NASDAQ (42.3 times), Nikkei 225 (23.2 times), and Sensex (23.2 times), highlighting the valuation advantage of A-shares [3] - The risk premium, indicated by the dividend yield minus the ten-year government bond yield, is currently at 0.73, which is notably above the historical average, suggesting attractive excess returns for equity investors [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's rise over the past year, A-share investors remain cautious rather than overly optimistic, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors, with some benefiting from the global AI cycle while others, like real estate and midstream manufacturing, continue to struggle [4] - The current market environment does not indicate systemic overvaluation risks but rather a correction of overly pessimistic expectations, particularly in growth and cyclical sectors [4] - The outlook for A-shares is optimistic, supported by clear policy frameworks, stable economic fundamentals, improving liquidity, and healthier valuations, suggesting a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" scenario [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk premium, explaining why investments in stocks and funds can yield significantly higher returns compared to bank wealth management products, which typically offer lower returns due to their lower risk profile [3][11]. Group 1: Risk-Free Investments - The safest asset in the financial world is typically short-term government bonds, which are backed by national credit, providing a "floor price" for all yields [4]. - An assumed interest rate for a 30-day short-term government bond is around 4%, which serves as the baseline return for virtually risk-free investments [5]. Group 2: Types of Risk Premium - **Term Premium**: Investors require higher interest rates for locking their money in longer-term bonds due to the uncertainty associated with time, leading to a term premium. For example, a 5-year bond might require a 5% yield, while a 10-year bond might require a 6% yield, reflecting a 2% term premium for the additional time risk [7]. - **Credit Premium**: When comparing a 10-year government bond yielding 6% to corporate bonds from stable companies like Moutai or Tencent, investors demand a higher yield for the additional credit risk associated with corporate bonds. This additional yield is termed the credit premium, which might be around 1% higher than government bonds [10]. Group 3: Relationship Between Risk and Return - The article emphasizes that as risk increases, the required compensation (risk premium) also increases. For instance, junk bonds may require yields of 12%, while stocks might necessitate expected returns of 10%-13% due to their higher risk profile [12][19]. - The relationship between risk and return is illustrated as a positive correlation, where higher potential returns are associated with higher risks [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Insights - Understanding risk premium helps investors make rational decisions, avoiding scams that promise high returns with low risk. For example, a project claiming a guaranteed 30% return is likely fraudulent, as such returns correspond to high-risk investments [20]. - The article suggests that a balanced investment strategy should include both low-risk bonds for stable returns and higher-risk stocks for potential higher risk premiums, allowing investors to find their optimal risk-return balance [20][21].

Core Insights - The event titled "The Long-Term Viability of 'Fixed Income+' Strategies" was held in Shanghai, focusing on the positioning and future development paths of such products in a low-volatility environment [1] - The current low interest rate and market volatility have led to a "yield drought," prompting investors to seek better returns through 'Fixed Income+' strategies, which combine equity and debt [1][4] - The roundtable featured discussions on achieving better returns while maintaining strict drawdown controls, highlighting the importance of risk management in 'Fixed Income+' products [1][4] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Yujianfeng from Dongfanghong Asset Management employs a unified investment framework that includes a target volatility model and a maximum drawdown control model to manage risk and enhance returns [7][8] - The strategy involves selecting benchmark indices for both stocks and bonds, with a focus on maintaining a low drawdown target of 2%-4% for open-end products [8][10] - Guo Liyan from Huazheng Fund emphasizes the importance of buying quality assets at good prices and dynamically adjusting market risk factors based on market conditions [9][10] Group 2: Risk Management - Yujianfeng argues that the term 'Fixed Income+' should not separate fixed income from equities, as both asset classes can exhibit low correlation, allowing for better risk-adjusted returns [12][13] - Guo Liyan highlights the need for disciplined position sizing and a robust risk management mechanism to prevent 'Fixed Income+' products from turning into 'Fixed Income-' [14][15] - Both managers stress the importance of controlling concentration risk and ensuring that the portfolio is well-diversified to mitigate potential market shocks [10][15] Group 3: Market Outlook - Yujianfeng predicts that the long-term trend of declining interest rates will continue, making it challenging to achieve traditional returns from bonds alone [24][25] - Guo Liyan identifies new economic sectors, such as AI and advanced manufacturing, as key areas for investment, anticipating a shift in market dynamics as these sectors gain prominence [26][27] - The managers agree that while short-term market conditions may present challenges, the focus should remain on long-term structural opportunities within the evolving economic landscape [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategies and insights shared by industry experts on how to achieve better returns in a low-volatility environment through "fixed income plus" strategies, emphasizing risk management and disciplined investment approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Strict Control of Drawdown - Two main paths for strict drawdown control are identified: model-based constraints and refined security selection [4]. - The investment framework includes a unified approach across different product types, utilizing a target volatility model and a maximum drawdown control model to manage risk [5][6]. - For low-volatility products, a drawdown target of 2% is considered low, while a range of 2%-4% is aimed for open-end products [6][7]. Group 2: Avoiding "Fixed Income Minus" Risks - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear risk-return profile to prevent "fixed income minus" scenarios, especially during market upswings [10][11]. - A disciplined position design is crucial, with a focus on maintaining a maximum stock allocation of 12% and the possibility of reducing stock positions to zero when valuations are too high [13][14]. - Daily liquidity and risk management mechanisms are highlighted, including strict evaluation of risk-reward ratios for individual securities [14]. Group 3: Methodological Origins - The investment framework is rooted in asset pricing theory, focusing on managing volatility and diversifying risk rather than relying solely on macro timing [15][16]. - A three-layer system for portfolio construction is proposed, which includes style structure, industry allocation, and individual security selection [18][19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook in a Low-Interest Rate Environment - The article notes that as interest rates decline, the investment logic for "fixed income plus" products must evolve, with a potential long-term return of 2%-2.5% expected from bonds [23][24]. - The shift towards equity over bonds is suggested as a strategy to achieve higher returns in a low-yield environment, with a focus on sectors like technology and cyclical finance [25][26]. - The importance of balanced allocation and diversification is emphasized, particularly in the context of emerging industries such as AI and robotics [27].

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 4.086, UK 4.424, France 3.437, Germany 2.653, Italy 3.399, Spain 3.158, Switzerland 0.087, Greece 3.275, Japan 1.664, Brazil 6.102, China 1.793, South Korea 3.086, Australia 4.350, New Zealand 4.101 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 3.577, UK 3.778, Germany 1.994, Japan 0.936, Italy 2.170, South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.616 [2] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.401, South Africa zar 17.512, South Korean won 1440.400, Thai baht 32.550, Malaysian ringgit 4.197 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore RMB 7.130, off - shore RMB 7.135, RMB central parity rate 7.089, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.983 [2] - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6771.550, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47085.240, Nasdaq 23348.640, Mexican stock index 62390.730, UK stock index 9714.960, France CAC 8067.530, Germany DAX 23949.110, Spanish stock index 16036.400, Japanese Nikkei 51497.200, Hang Seng Index 25952.400, Shanghai Composite Index 3960.186, Taiwan stock index 28116.560, South Korean stock index 4121.740, Indian stock index 8241.911, Thai stock index 1298.600, Malaysian stock index 1623.500, Australian stock index 9098.190, emerging - economy stock index 1393.380 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3960.19, CSI 300 4618.70, SSE 50 3012.97, ChiNext 3134.09, CSI 500 7210.83 [3] - Percentage changes: A - shares - 0.41%, CSI 300 - 0.75%, SSE 50 - 0.11%, ChiNext - 1.96%, CSI 500 - 1.67% [3] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.17, SSE 50 11.90, CSI 500 32.85, S&P 500 28.15, Germany DAX 19.81 [3] - Month - on - month changes: CSI 300 - 0.03, SSE 50 0.06, CSI 500 - 0.54, S&P 500 - 0.34, Germany DAX - 0.15 [3] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.53, Germany DAX 2.39 [3] - Month - on - month changes: S&P 500 0.07, Germany DAX 0.05 [3] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 1494.83, Main board - 996.44, ChiNext - 379.93, CSI 300 - 239.09 [3] - 5 - day averages: A - shares - 667.86, Main board - 481.75, ChiNext - 120.57, CSI 300 - 107.90 [3] Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19157.58, CSI 300 5051.78, SSE 50 1310.58, Small and medium - sized board 3848.70, ChiNext 4768.17 [4] - Month - on - month changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 1913.73, CSI 300 - 524.25, SSE 50 - 35.79, Small and medium - sized board - 310.45, ChiNext - 589.85 [4] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 29.70, IH - 4.77, IC - 116.23 [4] - Basis spreads: IF - 0.64%, IH - 0.16%, IC - 1.61% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 108.66, TF2303 106.03, T2306 108.40, TF2306 105.99 [4] - Percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.02%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.01% [4] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3621%, R007 1.4584%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5940% [4] - Daily changes: R001 - 10.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M - 1.00 BP [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a volatile and differentiated state due to the end of the tariff issue and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation by Powell's hawkish remarks. Different assets show distinct performances [5][6][9]. - Gold prices have fallen from their highs recently but still have long - term upward support. Investors are advised to approach gold investment rationally [6]. - The gold tax new policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy by adjusting the behavior and motivation of market participants [73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure. The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken. Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling. Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [5][14]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The 10 - month domestic PMI data was lower than expected, which put pressure on the A - shares and commodities [6]. - Gold prices have fallen from historical highs to around $4000 per ounce. It is due to short - term technical adjustments and the weakening of risk - aversion sentiment, as well as the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rebound of the US dollar index. However, there is still long - term upward support for gold prices [6]. Big - Class Assets - Stock markets: Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure [5][9]. - Commodities: Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - Others: The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken [5][9]. Plate Express - Domestic bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling [14]. - Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [14]. Capital Flow - The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flows out last week. The agricultural and sideline products, non - ferrous metals, and non - metallic building materials sectors have obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals, energy, and oil and fat sectors have obvious capital outflows [16]. Variety Performance - Among domestic major commodity futures, the top - rising varieties are apples, iron ore, and coking coal, while the top - falling varieties are butadiene rubber, methanol, and palm [20]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly decreases, the volatility of the domestic Wind commodity index significantly increases, and the South China commodity index significantly reduces volatility. Most commodity futures sectors see a decline in volatility, with the non - metallic building materials, chemical, and coal, coking, steel, and minerals sectors significantly reducing volatility, and the precious metals sector having the most obvious upward volatility [24]. Data Tracking - International commodities: Most international commodities rise, with the BDI falling, the CRB rising slightly, soybeans and corn rising, copper rising, oil falling, gold falling, and silver rising, and the gold - silver ratio falling [26]. - Domestic data: The asphalt production rate seasonally declines, the real - estate sales are at a weak bottom, the freight rates show a differentiated rebound, and the short - term capital interest rate fluctuates at a low level [40]. Macro Logic - Stock index: The domestic four major stock indexes fall from highs and are mixed. The value stocks are weaker, and the growth - style stock indexes are stronger. The stock - index valuation is under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounds from a low level [30]. - Commodity price index: The commodity price index fluctuates at a high level, and the inflation expectation rebounds from a low level [32]. - US bond: The US bond yield significantly increases, with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones. The term structure shows a bearish steepening, the term spread is stable, the real interest rate rebounds, and the gold price fluctuates and rebounds [47]. - "Fund Seesaw" Effect and Commodity Spread: Last week, the stock market rises first and then falls, the commodity market fluctuates, and the commodity - stock return difference rebounds from a bottom. The domestic - priced commodities are relatively resistant to decline, and the international - priced commodities are weaker, with the domestic - international commodity futures return difference hovering around the zero axis [39]. - US economic indicators: The US high - frequency "recession indicators" are differentiated, the weekly economic index weakens, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread hovers around the zero axis [58]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% in October as expected. But due to the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the expectation probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut to 3.5 - 3.75% in December drops to 59.3% from last week's 98.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increases significantly [62]. World Gold Association Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand reaches a record high of 1,313 tons, with a total demand value of $146 billion. The growth is mainly driven by investment demand, which surges to 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase, accounting for 55% of the total net demand in the third quarter [66]. - The demand for gold bars and coins increases by 17% year - on - year to 316 tons, with India and China making prominent contributions. The global gold jewelry demand is under pressure, with a 19% year - on - year decline. The global central banks accelerate gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the third quarter, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year [67]. - In China, the retail gold investment and consumption demand in the third quarter is 152 tons, a 7% year - on - year decline and a 38% quarter - on - quarter decline. By value, it reaches 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% year - on - year increase. The sales of gold bars and coins increase by 19% year - on - year to 74 tons, a 36% quarter - on - quarter decline. The gold ETF in the Chinese market has an outflow of 3.8 billion yuan, and the total position decreases by 5.8 tons to 194 tons. The gold jewelry demand is 84 tons, a 21% quarter - on - quarter increase but an 18% year - on - year decline. By value, the gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter is 66.5 billion yuan, with significant increases both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [68]. Gold Tax New Policy - On November 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration jointly issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold" (No. 11 in 2025). The policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy through precise tax policy adjustments [73]. - The policy suppresses speculation by implementing differentiated VAT management according to the use of gold after delivery. It encourages rational investment by increasing the tax cost of enterprise - client investment in gold. - It supports the real economy by allowing non - investment uses of gold (such as in jewelry production and industrial use) to have a complete and smooth VAT deduction chain. - It regulates the market by binding tax incentives to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and preventing tax loopholes by strictly controlling the use declaration and change mechanism [74]. Fed Meeting - On October 30th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% as expected and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction (QT) on December 1st. There are internal differences within the Fed, with some advocating a larger - scale interest - rate cut and others opposing further cuts. The policy statement is adjusted to weaken concerns about employment decline and inflation. Powell emphasizes the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut decision and the impact of the government shutdown on data [84]. - After Powell's hawkish remarks, the probability of a December interest - rate cut drops from 95% to 65%. The US stocks, US bonds, gold, and digital currencies fall sharply during the session, the US dollar rises, and finally, the Nasdaq rises, the Dow and the S&P 500 fall, the US bond yield rises significantly, and the gold price falls by 2.5% from the high point [88]. China - US Summit in Busan - On October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting in Busan. The two sides reached consensus on several aspects in the economic and trade consultations, including the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and the two sides extending some tariff exclusion measures. The US will also suspend the implementation of some export - control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and ship - building industries for one year, and the two sides will also cooperate on fentanyl anti - drug, expand agricultural product trade, and handle relevant enterprise cases [93][95]. October PMI Data - In October, the manufacturing PMI is 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises are stable [98]. - By enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises is 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all lower than the critical point and showing a decline from the previous month [98]. - Among the 5 sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index is at the critical point, while the production index, new order index, raw - material inventory index, and employment index are all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production, a decline in market demand, a decrease in raw - material inventory, and a slight decline in employment [99]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 3rd): Eurozone October manufacturing PMI final value, US October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value, US October ISM manufacturing PMI. - Tuesday (November 4th): San Francisco Fed President Daly gives a speech, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest - rate decision, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, US September JOLTs job openings. - Wednesday (November 5th): Eurozone October services PMI final value, the Swedish central bank announces the interest - rate decision, Eurozone September PPI monthly rate, US October ADP employment, US October S&P Global services PMI final value, US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI. - Thursday (November 6th): Eurozone September retail sales monthly rate, the Bank of England announces the interest - rate decision, Tesla holds its annual general meeting. - Friday (November 7th): New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, Cleveland Fed President Harmaek gives a speech at the New York Economic Club, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson gives a speech, St. Louis Fed President Musalem has a fireside chat on monetary policy, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech at the European Central Bank money - market meeting, US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value. - Saturday (November 8th): US October New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation.

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 3.19% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.50%. The large-cap value index fell by 0.38%, and the large-cap growth index dropped by 0.40%. The Shanghai 50 Index declined by 1.12%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 1.18%. The power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, while telecommunications and beauty care sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - As of October 29, 2025, the risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, stands at 2.84%. The two-standard deviation boundary is 4.75% [1]. - The valuation levels indicate that the CSI All Share Index's PETTM is at the 81st percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 75% and 73%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to the 53rd percentile, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 63% and 61%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1]. ETF Fund Flow - In the last five trading days, there was an outflow of 6.9 billion yuan from ETFs, while the margin trading balance increased by approximately 46.9 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 22,967 billion yuan [2]. Convolutional Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) model was utilized to analyze charted price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest thematic allocations include banking, energy, and dividends, specifically focusing on indices such as the CSI Bank Index, CSI Energy Index, and CSI Central Enterprises Dividend Index [2][11].