编辑丨金珊 受地缘紧张局势的升级影响， 5日早盘，黄金价格大涨。 截至9:30左右， 现货黄金涨1.63%，突破4400美元关口；COMEX黄金期货涨1.73%。现货白银大涨近4%，突破75美元关口。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4402.009 | 75.612 | 4404.5 | | +70.434 +1.63% | +2.793 +3.84% | +74.9 +1.73% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 75.195 | 991.66 | 18010 | | +4.180 +5.89% | +10.44 +1.06% | -27 -0.15% | 国际油价由跌转涨振幅较大。 | W | | ICE布油 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | B.IPE | | | | | | 61.11 | 昨结 | | 60.75 | 总手 | 1.88万 | | | +0.36 | +0.59% 开盘 | | 60.99 | 现手 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices surged by 1.63%, surpassing the $1,400 mark, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.73% [1] - Spot silver rose nearly 4%, breaking the $75 threshold [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced significant volatility, shifting from decline to increase [3] - Venezuela, a key oil-producing country and OPEC member, faces production cuts due to U.S. sanctions, which may lead to a further decline in its oil output [6] - Analysts suggest that escalating geopolitical tensions could raise risk premiums and drive oil prices upward, with WTI and Brent crude potentially reaching $60 and $63 per barrel, respectively [6] Group 3: Asian Stock Markets - Asian stock markets opened higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising over 2.6% and South Korea's Composite Index increasing by more than 2% [4] - The A-share market also saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component up by 0.80%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.84% [4] - Notable sectors included commercial aerospace, military stocks, brain-computer interface concepts, and oil and gas stocks showing strong performance [4]

特朗普与马杜罗政府的恩怨由来已久。 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半球不够亲美的国家政权在意识形态等方面存在天然的 个人好恶。 2018年马杜罗竞选总统连任后，特朗普率先宣布反对派领袖为委内瑞拉临时总统，导致委美断交。随 后，特朗普对委内瑞拉和马杜罗政府展开了一系列制裁。2020年，美国司法部以"毒品恐怖主义"罪名起 诉马杜罗，悬赏1500万美元。及至第二任期，特朗普进一步加大施压力度，去年9月以来，美国在海上 多次打击委内瑞拉船只，并封锁油轮。 临近中选，打击马杜罗政府有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。 多年以来，特朗普致力于塑造马杜罗政府向美国大量输送非法移民和毒品的形象，MAGA群体对此类 叙事尤为买账。另外，美国拉丁裔过往常年支持民主党，2024年大选因通胀等原因倒向共和党，但是过 去一年对特朗普的支持率又快速下降。以古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔为代表的右翼拉丁裔广泛分布在得克萨斯 州、佛罗里达州等地，打击马杜罗政府将提升这部分群体的好感。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，如果美国推动"美企控盘式"的委内瑞拉增产，短期油价 更可能被"风险溢价+OPEC+控制供给节奏"托住甚至回升，而非因增产 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, and valuation metrics such as PE-TTM and dividend yield[1][2][4] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Component Stock Free Float Shares} \times \text{Component Stock Turnover Rate})}{\Sigma(\text{Component Stock Free Float Shares})} $ This metric reflects the liquidity and trading activity of the indices[19] - The risk premium of the indices is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a benchmark for risk-free rates. The report highlights the mean-reversion behavior of risk premiums and their volatility trends over time[29][30] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric to assess the investment value of indices. The report observes that the PE-TTM values of indices like CSI 500 and CSI All Share are at relatively high historical percentiles, while indices like SSE 50 and ChiNext are at lower percentiles[41][44][45] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return to investors. The report notes that indices such as ChiNext and CSI 300 have relatively high historical percentiles for dividend yield, while CSI 500 and CSI 2000 are at lower percentiles[50][52][56] - The report also tracks the net asset value (NAV) break rate, which indicates the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. A higher break rate suggests undervaluation, while a lower rate may indicate market optimism. Current break rates for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 300 are higher compared to others like CSI 2000 and CSI All Share[57][59]

| | | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.111 | 4.486 | 3.524 | 2.828 | 3.503 | 3.249 | 0.263 | 3.393 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.045 | 6.156 | 1.854 | - | 4.755 | 4.439 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.456 | 3.715 | 2.114 | 1.151 | 2.2 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various broad-based indices in the A-share market, noting that on December 24, 2025, all indices except the SSE 50 increased, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 showing the largest gains of 1.55% and 1.54%, respectively[2] - The report compares the moving averages of the indices, highlighting that the CSI 1000 broke through the 60-day moving average, and all tracked indices are above the 5, 10, 20, and 60-day moving averages[13] - The report analyzes the trading volume and turnover rates, noting that on December 24, 2025, the CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 24.78%, followed by the CSI 300 and CSI 1000, both at 21.96%[17] - The report examines the daily return distribution, indicating that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis, while the CSI 2000 has the smallest negative skewness and kurtosis[23][25] - The report evaluates the risk premium of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield, noting that the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 have high 5-year percentile values of 89.44% and 88.1%, respectively, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have lower values of 64.21% and 47.46%[28][31] - The report assesses the PE-TTM ratios of the indices, highlighting that the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have high 5-year percentile values of 96.94% and 94.63%, respectively, while the SSE 50 and ChiNext Index have lower values of 84.05% and 59.17%[42][43] - The report analyzes the dividend yield, noting that the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 have high 5-year historical percentile values of 61.32% and 39.09%, respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 have lower values of 17.77% and 16.36%[51][53] - The report examines the net asset value break rate, indicating that the current break rates for the indices are 22.0% for the SSE 50, 16.0% for the CSI 300, 10.8% for the CSI 500, 8.0% for the CSI 1000, 3.25% for the CSI 2000, and 6.14% for the CSI All Share Index[57]

| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...

| 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月23日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 | 1 1 1 12 標 1 œ | | --- | | 4 17 | | 7 1 2 2 | F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的 闲置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一国委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应 收紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力,而油价主基调终将回归远期供需宽松主导下的油价中枢下移局势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 地缘风险持续发酵，推动原油成本端延续上行,燃料油随之上涨。就 ...

格隆汇12月23日｜由于俄乌之间局势再度紧张，增加了黑海地区供应中断的风险，小麦价格目前维持在 去年 12 月中旬以来的最高水平附近。据乌克兰官员称，俄罗斯加强了对乌克兰部分港口的袭击，导致 基础设施受损，并引燃了装有面粉和植物油的集装箱。与此同时，俄罗斯表示，其黑海塔曼港遭到无人 机袭击，导致油轮、码头、管道及储罐受损。这些袭击正在放缓这一全球重要出口地区的粮食和油脂出 货量。CRM Agri Commodities在报告中指出，此前市场曾希望由美国支持的和平努力能结束冲突并解除 对两大谷物出口国贸易的威胁，风险溢价一度消退，但近期袭击促使风险溢价再度回归。 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects to boost future development and current economic stability [2] - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for seven consecutive months [2] - Four futures exchanges will temporarily exempt certain handling fees for most futures varieties from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, and the China Financial Futures Exchange will halve some handling fees [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened [2] - US President Trump will meet with senior national security officials, and Russia's Foreign Ministry is evacuating the families of diplomats in Venezuela [2] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [3] - Night trading performance: different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector leading at 33.87%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 24.53%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 10.46% [3] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [4] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.69 | 0.74 | 16.87 | | | SSE 50 | 0.53 | 1.70 | 12.49 | | | CSI 300 | 0.95 | 1.88 | 17.20 | | | CSI 500 | 1.20 | 3.19 | 26.72 | | | S&P 500 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 16.95 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.43 | - 0.22 | 28.62 | | | German DAX | - 0.05 | 1.85 | 21.94 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 26.34 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.32 | 1.50 | 20.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.09 | 0.04 | - 0.87 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.06 | 0.11 | - 0.64 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | 0.08 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | WTI Crude Oil | 2.49 | - 0.80 | - 19.45 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.37 | 5.34 | 69.35 | | | LME Copper | 0.25 | 6.58 | 35.64 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 4.40 | 12.78 | 50.89 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.46 | - 1.19 | - 9.42 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 8.81 | - 14.06 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of stock market risk preference and major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, and agricultural futures, but specific data is not described in text [6]