Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent upward trend in international gold prices, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 30% as of May 8, 2023, driven by various economic factors and market dynamics [4][9]. Gold Market Overview - As of May 8, 2023, the price of London gold is reported at $3,407.41 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.29% and a year-to-date increase of 29.85% [2]. - COMEX gold prices also show a similar upward trend, reaching $3,413.20 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 29.32% [2]. - Domestic gold prices have surpassed 1,000 yuan per gram for several brands, indicating strong demand in the physical gold market [5]. Economic Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change since January 2023 [5]. - Market analysts suggest that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and geopolitical factors continues to support gold prices, creating a scenario where gold is likely to remain in an upward trend as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields stay above 4% [9]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term risks of price corrections are acknowledged, with expectations of a potential adjustment range of 5% to 10%, influenced by developments in U.S.-China tariff policies [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of gold remains widely recognized, driven by persistent global uncertainties and inflationary pressures [7][9]. Market Sentiment - The influx of investments into gold ETFs has significantly contributed to the recent price surge, with a noted increase of 29.4% in gold prices in the first four months of 2023 [10]. - Analysts emphasize the need for the market to digest the rapid price increases, suggesting that while the fundamental factors supporting gold prices remain intact, a period of consolidation may be necessary [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4603.44, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also experienced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2489 tons, aluminum down 8027 tons, zinc down 4552 tons, lead down 4721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold is a relatively certain investment target due to the dual risks of the US dollar's credit and economic prospects, and its medium - to long - term price trend is upward, while short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance [1] - The market risk appetite will be relatively pressured before the situation of tariff policies becomes clear, and commodities will maintain wide - range fluctuations [1] - The global economic growth rate is expected to decline in 2025, and almost all countries' economic growth forecasts have been lowered, with the US growth rate dropping to 1.8% [1] - The value of gold allocation is prominent, and global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase [1] - Attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 "Gold Demand Trends" report [1] - During the period around the May Day holiday, pay attention to position control and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Related Content Tariff Policy - Trump will set "fair" tariff prices for different countries, is unlikely to suspend tariffs for 90 days again, and expects a trade agreement to be reached in three to four weeks [1][2] - The US Trade Representative's Office states that Trump will ultimately decide whether to advance alternative measures to cancel or reduce the current 10% tariffs on relevant countries [2] - The US - Japan finance ministers' meeting did not set exchange - rate targets, Japan is considering increasing US corn imports, and Trump says he is close to reaching a trade agreement with Japan [2] Federal Reserve - Harmaak believes that if economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June [2] - Waller thinks it will be July to have a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy, and if tariffs lead to a rise in unemployment, the Fed may start cutting interest rates [2] - Kashkari says the frequent announcements from Washington pose challenges to policymakers and everyone [2] Economic Forecast - The IMF's latest "World Economic Outlook Report" predicts that the global economic growth in 2025 will drop from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8%, and the US growth rate will decline by 1 percentage point to 1.8% [1] Gold Market - The price of gold is in a medium - to long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance. Key US economic data will be released this week [1] - Global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase, and attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 report [1]

本文字数：912，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 2025.04. 23 黄金ETF持仓创阶段新高 此次黄金上涨并未因美股调整而承压。StoneX分析师康奈尔（Rhona O'Connell）称，这一现象打破 了传统模式，显示黄金资产在当前宏观背景下被重新赋予更强的配置价值。 ETF持仓方面，截至目前，实物黄金ETF的持仓量已升至2023年9月以来最高，按市值计已创历史新 高，这种结构性增持反映出市场对美元资产的信心正在减弱。 XS.com分析师古鲁（Rania Gule）表示："当前黄金的上行趋势并非短期情绪推动，更反映了市场对 全球政治、经济体系稳固性的重新评估。" 周三亚市早盘，现货黄金一度跳水近40美元，最低触及3343美元/盎司。此前黄金价格强势上行，连 续刷新历史高位，纽约商品交易所黄金期货周二盘中一度升至每盎司3509.90美元，首次突破3500美 元关口。 当地时间22日，美国总统特朗普表示，无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他对美联储未更快降息感 到失望。特朗普说："我们认为美联储应该降低利率，现在是一个完美的时机。"分析师认为，相关表 态降低了美联储货币政策剧烈转向的风险， ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 4月22日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 831.42 | 4.13% | 872331 | 204670 | 周一特朗普强硬表态，要求美联储"立即降息"，否则美国经济将面临放缓风险。而鲍威尔上周则坚持认 为，在特朗普关税政策对通胀的影响明朗化之前，不应轻易调整利率。 这场政策博弈已对全球市场造成连锁反应，美国资产遭遇大规模抛售，美股美元双双受挫。虽然亚洲股 市努力维持稳定，但投资者情绪明显谨慎。与此同时，亚洲大国严正指责美国滥用关税政策，警告各国 不要牺牲自身利益换取经济协议。 【机构观点】 国投期货： 隔夜美国股债汇下跌，贵金属延续强势，金价刷新新高。特朗普继续炮轰鲍威尔催促降息考验美联储独 立性，美国信用和经济前景双重风险下美元贬值加速，黄金配置价值凸显，全球黄金ETF处于大幅增持 阶段。金价中长期维持重心上移趋势，短期快速上涨后波动放大保持谨慎。 数据显示，4月22日上海黄金现货价格报价831元/克 ...

美国截至4月12日当周初请失业金人数为21.5万，为2025年2月8日当周以来新低。尽管关税的不确定性 使企业在扩大招聘方面持谨慎态度，企业并没有转向大规模裁员。美国"软数据"继续恶化，美国4月费 城联储制造业指数为-26.4，为2023年4月以来新低，预期为2，前值为12.5。 当地时间4月17日，欧洲央行宣布下调政策利率25个基点，将主要再融资利率下调至2.40%，将存款便 利利率下调至2.25%，将边际贷款利率下调至2.65%，均符合市场预期。均符合市场预期。这是自2024 年6月欧洲央行开启降息周期以来的第七次降息。 欧洲央行表示，由于贸易紧张局势加剧，全球经济增长前景已恶化。纽约联邦储备银行总裁威廉姆斯表 示，由于特朗普政府的关税措施可能会推高通胀、削弱经济增长并推高失业率，他认为美联储利率政策 没有立即调整的必要。 【黄金期货最新行情】 4月21日 收盘价（元/克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪金主力 805.06 2.50% 385994 198113 【基本面消息】 数据显示，4月18日上海黄金现货价格报价800.5元/克，相较于期货主力价格（805.06元/克）贴水4.56 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]